Intrinsic value of NeuroMetrix - NURO

Previous Close

$1.82

  Intrinsic Value

$0.17

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-91%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$1.82

 
Intrinsic value

$0.17

 
Up/down potential

-91%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NURO stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  71.43
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  12
  19
  30
  44
  64
  91
  125
  168
  220
  283
  358
  444
  543
  654
  779
  916
  1,065
  1,227
  1,401
  1,586
  1,784
  1,992
  2,211
  2,442
  2,683
  2,935
  3,197
  3,471
  3,755
  4,051
  4,359
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  22
  35
  52
  75
  106
  146
  196
  257
  330
  417
  518
  634
  764
  909
  1,068
  1,243
  1,432
  1,635
  1,851
  2,081
  2,325
  2,581
  2,850
  3,131
  3,425
  3,731
  4,051
  4,383
  4,728
  5,087
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
Total operating expenses, $m
  27
  35
  49
  66
  89
  121
  161
  211
  273
  346
  434
  535
  651
  782
  927
  1,087
  1,262
  1,452
  1,655
  1,872
  2,102
  2,347
  2,603
  2,873
  3,155
  3,449
  3,756
  4,076
  4,409
  4,755
  5,114
Operating income, $m
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -25
  -30
  -36
  -43
  -53
  -64
  -76
  -91
  -108
  -127
  -148
  -172
  -197
  -225
  -254
  -286
  -319
  -354
  -392
  -431
  -472
  -514
  -559
  -605
  -653
  -703
  -755
EBITDA, $m
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -25
  -30
  -36
  -43
  -53
  -64
  -76
  -91
  -108
  -127
  -148
  -172
  -197
  -225
  -254
  -286
  -319
  -354
  -392
  -431
  -472
  -514
  -559
  -605
  -653
  -703
  -755
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
Earnings before tax, $m
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -30
  -37
  -44
  -54
  -65
  -79
  -94
  -112
  -132
  -154
  -178
  -205
  -234
  -265
  -298
  -333
  -370
  -409
  -450
  -493
  -538
  -584
  -633
  -683
  -736
  -791
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -30
  -37
  -44
  -54
  -65
  -79
  -94
  -112
  -132
  -154
  -178
  -205
  -234
  -265
  -298
  -333
  -370
  -409
  -450
  -493
  -538
  -584
  -633
  -683
  -736
  -791

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8
  6
  10
  15
  21
  30
  42
  56
  73
  94
  119
  148
  181
  218
  260
  305
  355
  409
  467
  529
  595
  664
  737
  814
  894
  978
  1,066
  1,157
  1,252
  1,350
  1,453
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4
  6
  10
  15
  21
  30
  42
  56
  73
  94
  119
  148
  181
  218
  260
  305
  355
  409
  467
  529
  595
  664
  737
  814
  894
  978
  1,066
  1,157
  1,252
  1,350
  1,453
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  3.000
  3.167
  3.000
  2.933
  3.048
  3.033
  2.976
  3.000
  3.014
  3.011
  3.008
  3.000
  3.000
  3.000
  2.996
  3.003
  3.000
  3.000
  3.000
  2.998
  2.998
  3.000
  3.000
  3.000
  3.001
  3.001
  2.999
  3.000
  2.999
  3.001
  3.000
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  5
  2
  2
  4
  5
  8
  10
  14
  18
  24
  30
  37
  45
  54
  65
  76
  88
  102
  116
  132
  148
  165
  184
  203
  223
  244
  265
  288
  312
  336
  362
Total debt, $m
  0
  2
  4
  8
  13
  20
  28
  39
  52
  68
  86
  108
  133
  161
  192
  226
  263
  304
  347
  394
  443
  495
  550
  607
  668
  731
  796
  865
  936
  1,010
  1,087
Total liabilities, $m
  3
  5
  7
  11
  16
  23
  31
  42
  55
  71
  89
  111
  136
  164
  195
  229
  266
  307
  350
  397
  446
  498
  553
  610
  671
  734
  799
  868
  939
  1,013
  1,090
Total equity, $m
  5
  2
  2
  4
  5
  8
  10
  14
  18
  24
  30
  37
  45
  55
  65
  76
  89
  102
  117
  132
  149
  166
  184
  203
  224
  245
  266
  289
  313
  338
  363
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8
  7
  9
  15
  21
  31
  41
  56
  73
  95
  119
  148
  181
  219
  260
  305
  355
  409
  467
  529
  595
  664
  737
  813
  895
  979
  1,065
  1,157
  1,252
  1,351
  1,453
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  1.130
  1.790
  2.190
  2.440
  2.600
  2.710
  2.790
  2.840
  2.870
  2.900
  2.920
  2.930
  2.940
  2.950
  2.960
  2.970
  2.970
  2.970
  2.980
  2.980
  2.980
  2.980
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
  2.990
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250
  0.250

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -30
  -37
  -44
  -54
  -65
  -79
  -94
  -112
  -132
  -154
  -178
  -205
  -234
  -265
  -298
  -333
  -370
  -409
  -450
  -493
  -538
  -584
  -633
  -683
  -736
  -791
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -30
  -37
  -44
  -54
  -65
  -79
  -94
  -112
  -132
  -154
  -178
  -205
  -234
  -265
  -298
  -333
  -370
  -409
  -450
  -493
  -538
  -584
  -633
  -683
  -736
  -791
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
Cash from operations, $m
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -33
  -39
  -48
  -58
  -71
  -85
  -101
  -120
  -141
  -164
  -190
  -217
  -247
  -279
  -313
  -349
  -387
  -427
  -469
  -513
  -558
  -606
  -656
  -707
  -760
  -816
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -33
  -39
  -48
  -58
  -71
  -85
  -101
  -120
  -141
  -164
  -190
  -217
  -247
  -279
  -313
  -349
  -387
  -427
  -469
  -513
  -558
  -606
  -656
  -707
  -760
  -816
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  9
  11
  13
  16
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  7
  17
  20
  23
  27
  33
  39
  48
  58
  71
  85
  101
  120
  141
  164
  190
  218
  247
  279
  313
  349
  387
  427
  469
  513
  559
  606
  656
  707
  761
  816
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  7
  19
  23
  27
  32
  40
  48
  59
  71
  87
  104
  123
  145
  169
  195
  224
  255
  287
  322
  359
  398
  439
  482
  527
  573
  622
  672
  724
  778
  835
  893
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -9
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  9
  11
  13
  16
  19
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  68
  71
  74
  77
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  8
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -27
  -33
  -39
  -48
  -58
  -71
  -85
  -101
  -120
  -141
  -164
  -190
  -218
  -247
  -279
  -313
  -349
  -387
  -427
  -469
  -513
  -559
  -606
  -656
  -707
  -761
  -816
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -11
  -17
  -19
  -22
  -26
  -31
  -37
  -45
  -55
  -66
  -80
  -95
  -113
  -133
  -156
  -180
  -207
  -236
  -267
  -300
  -335
  -372
  -411
  -453
  -496
  -540
  -587
  -636
  -687
  -739
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -11
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -46
  -45
  -43
  -41
  -38
  -35
  -31
  -27
  -23
  -19
  -16
  -13
  -10
  -7
  -6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  13.7
  2.5
  0.6
  0.2
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

NeuroMetrix, Inc., a medical device company, develops and markets products for the detection, diagnosis, and monitoring of peripheral nerve and spinal cord disorders. The company develops wearable neuro-stimulation therapeutic devices and point-of-care neuropathy diagnostic tests to address chronic health conditions, including chronic pain, sleep disorders, and diabetes. Its marketed products include Quell, a wearable device for relief of chronic intractable pain, such as nerve pain due to diabetes and lower back problems; the SENSUS pain therapy device, a prescription neurostimulation device based on transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation for relief of chronic intractable pain; DPNCheck, a test used to evaluate systemic neuropathies, such as diabetic peripheral neuropathy; and ADVANCE NCS/EMG system, a platform for the performance of traditional nerve conduction studies. The company offers its products to consumers, patients, retail merchandisers, health care professionals, durable medical equipment suppliers, physicians, clinics, hospitals, managed care organizations, independent distributors, retail health businesses, endocrinologists, podiatrists, neurologists, and physical medicine and rehabilitation centers, as well as primary care, internal medicine, orthopedic, hand, and neuro surgeons primarily in the United States, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and internationally. NeuroMetrix, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  NeuroMetrix (NURO)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -0.1
Price to Sales 0.1
Price to Book 0.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -0.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -0.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 71.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -125%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -88.1%
Return On Total Capital -166.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -146.4%
Return On Equity -166.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -146.4%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 41.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.8%
EBITDA Margin -125%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -129%
Operating Margin -125%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -152.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -125%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -129%
Net Profit Margin -125%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -129%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

NURO stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NURO stock intrinsic value calculation we used $12 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by NeuroMetrix. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of NeuroMetrix. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NURO stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NURO is calculated based on our internal credit rating of NeuroMetrix, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of NeuroMetrix.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NURO stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 116.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $13 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NURO stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for NeuroMetrix.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for NeuroMetrix. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NURO stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NURO are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in NeuroMetrix operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NURO is equal to 8.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $5 million for NeuroMetrix - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 7.496 million for NeuroMetrix is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of NeuroMetrix at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ NeuroMetrix Reports Q2 2017 Financial Results   [Jul-20-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ NeuroMetrix Wins SBANE New England Innovation Award   [May-17-17 11:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ NeuroMetrix Announces One-for-Eight Reverse Split   [May-11-17 11:45AM  Business Wire]
▶ NeuroMetrix Hosts Inaugural Quell User Event   [May-05-17 01:02PM  Business Wire]
▶ NeuroMetrix Reports Q1 2017 Financial Results   [Apr-20-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ NeuroMetrix Review Ahead of Thursday's Earnings Call   [Apr-19-17 08:30AM  Accesswire]
▶ NeuroMetrix Named a 50+ Innovation Leader   [Apr-13-17 10:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ NeuroMetrix Reports Strong Quell Demand in Q4 2016   [Jan-10-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ NeuroMetrix to Present at Biotech Showcase 2017   [Jan-03-17 03:14PM  Business Wire]
▶ NeuroMetrix Announces Participation in CES 2017   [Dec-22-16 04:00PM  Business Wire]
▶ NeuroMetrix Announces $26.5 Million Public Offering   [Dec-20-16 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ NeuroMetrix Reports Recent Media Coverage for Quell   [Jul-28-16 02:11PM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of NURO Financial statements of NURO
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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