Intrinsic value of Novavax - NVAX

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$1.19

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NVAX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -58.33
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  81
  83
  85
  88
  90
  93
  96
  99
  102
  106
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  284
  81
  83
  85
  88
  90
  93
  96
  99
  102
  106
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  234
  245
Operating income, $m
  -269
  -66
  -68
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -78
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -196
EBITDA, $m
  -260
  -57
  -58
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -182
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  12
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
Earnings before tax, $m
  -280
  -78
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -210
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -280
  -78
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -210

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  235
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  394
  163
  167
  171
  176
  181
  187
  193
  200
  207
  215
  224
  233
  243
  253
  264
  275
  288
  301
  314
  329
  344
  360
  377
  395
  414
  433
  454
  476
  499
  523
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  159
  163
  167
  171
  176
  181
  187
  193
  200
  207
  215
  224
  233
  243
  253
  264
  275
  288
  301
  314
  329
  344
  360
  377
  395
  414
  433
  454
  476
  499
  523
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.094
  0.092
  0.096
  0.094
  0.097
  0.094
  0.096
  0.093
  0.095
  0.092
  0.093
  0.094
  0.094
  0.095
  0.095
  0.095
  0.095
  0.094
  0.093
  0.096
  0.094
  0.093
  0.094
  0.093
  0.094
  0.094
  0.095
  0.095
  0.095
  0.094
  0.094
Average production assets, $m
  46
  47
  48
  49
  51
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
Working capital, $m
  222
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
Total debt, $m
  316
  62
  66
  70
  74
  79
  84
  90
  96
  103
  110
  118
  126
  134
  144
  153
  164
  175
  187
  199
  212
  226
  240
  255
  271
  288
  306
  325
  345
  365
  387
Total liabilities, $m
  400
  146
  150
  154
  158
  163
  168
  174
  180
  187
  194
  202
  210
  218
  228
  237
  248
  259
  271
  283
  296
  310
  324
  339
  355
  372
  390
  409
  429
  449
  471
Total equity, $m
  -6
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  394
  162
  167
  171
  176
  181
  187
  193
  200
  208
  216
  224
  233
  242
  253
  263
  276
  288
  301
  314
  329
  344
  360
  377
  394
  413
  433
  454
  477
  499
  523
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -52.667
  3.840
  3.960
  4.080
  4.220
  4.360
  4.500
  4.650
  4.800
  4.950
  5.100
  5.250
  5.390
  5.540
  5.680
  5.820
  5.950
  6.080
  6.210
  6.330
  6.440
  6.560
  6.670
  6.770
  6.870
  6.970
  7.060
  7.150
  7.240
  7.320
  7.400
Adjusted equity ratio
  -1.516
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -280
  -78
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -210
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  9
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
Funds from operations, $m
  -262
  -69
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -196
Change in working capital, $m
  -7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  -255
  -65
  -60
  -62
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -194
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
New CAPEX, $m
  -18
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
Cash from investing activities, $m
  28
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -20
Free cash flow, $m
  -227
  -71
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -186
  -195
  -204
  -214
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  325
  -254
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  4
  346
  62
  64
  65
  67
  69
  72
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  122
  127
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
  186
  195
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  279
  92
  65
  68
  69
  72
  74
  78
  80
  84
  87
  91
  94
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  123
  128
  135
  141
  148
  155
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  207
  217
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  51
  -324
  -62
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -159
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -193
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  299
  -257
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  235
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  7.70
  8.09
  8.49
  8.91
  9.36
  9.83
  10.32
  10.83
  11.38
  11.95
  12.54
  13.17
  13.83
  14.52
  15.25
  16.01
  16.81
  17.65
  18.53
  19.46
  20.43
  21.45
  22.52
  23.65
  24.83
  26.07
  27.38
  28.75
  30.18
  31.69
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  10.3
  2.1
  0.4
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Novavax, Inc., a clinical-stage vaccine company, focuses on discovering, developing, and commercializing recombinant nanoparticle vaccines and adjuvants. The company produces its vaccines using its proprietary recombinant nanoparticle vaccine technology. Its product pipeline includes respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine candidates for elderly and maternal immunization that are in Phase III clinical trials, as well as pediatric RSV candidate, which is in Phase I clinical trial; seasonal quadrivalent influenza and pandemic H7N9 vaccines, which are in Phase II clinical trials; vaccine candidate against Ebola Virus that is Phase I clinical trial, as well as combination respiratory vaccine candidate and seasonal influenza vaccine candidate that is in pre-clinical trial; and rabies G protein vaccine candidate, which is in Phase I/II clinical trial. The company also has pre-clinical stage programs for various infectious diseases, including the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus; and develops technology for the production of immune stimulating saponin-based adjuvants. Novavax, Inc. was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Novavax (NVAX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.2
Price to Sales 21.5
Price to Book -53.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -1.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -1.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -58.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 24.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.5
LT Debt to Equity -5266.7%
Total Debt to Equity -5266.7%
Interest Coverage -46
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -70.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -50.1%
Return On Total Capital -92.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -63.6%
Return On Equity -195.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -97.8%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.2%
EBITDA Margin -1766.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -813.6%
Operating Margin -1793.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -832.4%
Pre-Tax Margin -1866.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -856.8%
Net Profit Margin -1866.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -856.8%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

NVAX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NVAX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $15 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Novavax. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Novavax. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NVAX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.7%, whose default value for NVAX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Novavax, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Novavax.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NVAX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 533.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NVAX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.8% for Novavax.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Novavax. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NVAX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NVAX are equal to 306.7%.

Life of production assets of 10.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Novavax operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NVAX is equal to -86.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-6 million for Novavax - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 251.28 million for Novavax is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Novavax at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Novavax shares jump on news of narrowed first-quarter losses   [May-09-17 03:17PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Novavax reports 1Q loss   [May-08-17 04:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ No bonuses for Novavax following failed RSV vaccine trial   [May-01-17 04:55PM  American City Business Journals]
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▶ Better Buy: Novavax, Inc. vs. Roche   [Jan-17-17 09:56AM  at Motley Fool]
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Stock chart of NVAX Financial statements of NVAX Annual reports of NVAX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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