Intrinsic value of NorthWestern - NWE

Previous Close

$58.50

  Intrinsic Value

$38.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-35%

  Value-price divergence*

-43%

Previous close

$58.50

 
Intrinsic value

$38.00

 
Up/down potential

-35%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-43%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NWE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.54
  3.50
  3.65
  3.78
  3.91
  4.02
  4.11
  4.20
  4.28
  4.35
  4.42
  4.48
  4.53
  4.58
  4.62
  4.66
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.85
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
Revenue, $m
  1,257
  1,301
  1,348
  1,400
  1,454
  1,513
  1,575
  1,641
  1,711
  1,786
  1,865
  1,948
  2,036
  2,130
  2,228
  2,332
  2,441
  2,556
  2,678
  2,806
  2,940
  3,082
  3,231
  3,388
  3,553
  3,726
  3,908
  4,100
  4,301
  4,513
  4,736
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,015
  1,051
  1,089
  1,130
  1,174
  1,221
  1,271
  1,324
  1,380
  1,439
  1,466
  1,532
  1,603
  1,677
  1,755
  1,837
  1,924
  2,015
  2,111
  2,213
  2,319
  2,431
  2,549
  2,673
  2,804
  2,941
  3,085
  3,237
  3,396
  3,564
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,011
  1,015
  1,051
  1,089
  1,130
  1,174
  1,221
  1,271
  1,324
  1,380
  1,439
  1,466
  1,532
  1,603
  1,677
  1,755
  1,837
  1,924
  2,015
  2,111
  2,213
  2,319
  2,431
  2,549
  2,673
  2,804
  2,941
  3,085
  3,237
  3,396
  3,564
Operating income, $m
  246
  286
  298
  311
  324
  339
  354
  370
  388
  406
  426
  482
  504
  527
  551
  577
  604
  633
  663
  694
  728
  763
  800
  838
  879
  922
  967
  1,015
  1,065
  1,117
  1,172
EBITDA, $m
  405
  322
  334
  346
  360
  374
  390
  406
  424
  442
  461
  482
  504
  527
  551
  577
  604
  633
  663
  694
  728
  763
  800
  838
  879
  922
  967
  1,015
  1,065
  1,117
  1,172
Interest expense (income), $m
  85
  87
  92
  98
  104
  111
  118
  126
  134
  143
  152
  162
  173
  184
  195
  207
  220
  234
  248
  263
  279
  296
  314
  332
  352
  372
  394
  416
  440
  465
  492
Earnings before tax, $m
  157
  199
  206
  213
  220
  227
  236
  244
  253
  263
  273
  320
  331
  343
  356
  370
  384
  399
  414
  431
  448
  467
  486
  506
  527
  550
  573
  598
  624
  651
  680
Tax expense, $m
  -7
  54
  56
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  68
  71
  74
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
  176
  184
Net income, $m
  164
  146
  150
  155
  160
  166
  172
  178
  185
  192
  200
  234
  242
  251
  260
  270
  280
  291
  303
  315
  327
  341
  355
  370
  385
  401
  419
  437
  456
  476
  497

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,499
  5,681
  5,889
  6,111
  6,350
  6,605
  6,877
  7,166
  7,473
  7,798
  8,143
  8,507
  8,893
  9,300
  9,729
  10,182
  10,660
  11,163
  11,694
  12,252
  12,840
  13,458
  14,109
  14,794
  15,514
  16,271
  17,067
  17,904
  18,783
  19,708
  20,679
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,494
  5,681
  5,889
  6,111
  6,350
  6,605
  6,877
  7,166
  7,473
  7,798
  8,143
  8,507
  8,893
  9,300
  9,729
  10,182
  10,660
  11,163
  11,694
  12,252
  12,840
  13,458
  14,109
  14,794
  15,514
  16,271
  17,067
  17,904
  18,783
  19,708
  20,679
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
Average production assets, $m
  -570
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  -334
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
Total debt, $m
  2,120
  2,245
  2,390
  2,544
  2,710
  2,888
  3,076
  3,277
  3,491
  3,717
  3,956
  4,210
  4,477
  4,760
  5,059
  5,374
  5,706
  6,056
  6,424
  6,812
  7,221
  7,651
  8,103
  8,579
  9,079
  9,605
  10,158
  10,740
  11,351
  11,994
  12,669
Total liabilities, $m
  3,823
  3,948
  4,093
  4,247
  4,413
  4,591
  4,779
  4,980
  5,194
  5,420
  5,659
  5,913
  6,180
  6,463
  6,762
  7,077
  7,409
  7,759
  8,127
  8,515
  8,924
  9,354
  9,806
  10,282
  10,782
  11,308
  11,861
  12,443
  13,054
  13,697
  14,372
Total equity, $m
  1,676
  1,733
  1,796
  1,864
  1,937
  2,015
  2,097
  2,186
  2,279
  2,378
  2,484
  2,595
  2,712
  2,836
  2,967
  3,106
  3,251
  3,405
  3,567
  3,737
  3,916
  4,105
  4,303
  4,512
  4,732
  4,963
  5,205
  5,461
  5,729
  6,011
  6,307
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,499
  5,681
  5,889
  6,111
  6,350
  6,606
  6,876
  7,166
  7,473
  7,798
  8,143
  8,508
  8,892
  9,299
  9,729
  10,183
  10,660
  11,164
  11,694
  12,252
  12,840
  13,459
  14,109
  14,794
  15,514
  16,271
  17,066
  17,904
  18,783
  19,708
  20,679
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.265
  1.300
  1.330
  1.370
  1.400
  1.430
  1.470
  1.500
  1.530
  1.560
  1.590
  1.620
  1.650
  1.680
  1.700
  1.730
  1.750
  1.780
  1.800
  1.820
  1.840
  1.860
  1.880
  1.900
  1.920
  1.940
  1.950
  1.970
  1.980
  2.000
  2.010
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  164
  146
  150
  155
  160
  166
  172
  178
  185
  192
  200
  234
  242
  251
  260
  270
  280
  291
  303
  315
  327
  341
  355
  370
  385
  401
  419
  437
  456
  476
  497
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  159
  36
  36
  36
  36
  36
  36
  36
  36
  36
  36
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  258
  181
  186
  191
  196
  202
  208
  214
  221
  228
  235
  234
  242
  251
  260
  270
  280
  291
  303
  315
  327
  341
  355
  370
  385
  401
  419
  437
  456
  476
  497
Change in working capital, $m
  -31
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
Cash from operations, $m
  289
  183
  187
  192
  198
  204
  210
  216
  223
  230
  238
  236
  244
  253
  263
  273
  283
  294
  306
  318
  331
  345
  359
  374
  390
  406
  424
  442
  461
  482
  503
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  114
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -288
  -570
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -287
  -456
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  2
  -273
  187
  192
  198
  204
  210
  216
  223
  230
  238
  236
  244
  253
  263
  273
  283
  294
  306
  318
  331
  345
  359
  374
  390
  406
  424
  442
  461
  482
  503
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  95
  130
  144
  155
  166
  177
  189
  201
  213
  226
  239
  253
  268
  283
  299
  315
  332
  350
  369
  388
  409
  430
  452
  476
  500
  526
  553
  582
  611
  642
  675
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  87
  130
  144
  155
  166
  177
  189
  201
  213
  226
  239
  253
  268
  283
  299
  315
  332
  350
  369
  388
  409
  430
  452
  476
  500
  526
  553
  582
  611
  642
  675
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  89
  -142
  332
  347
  364
  381
  398
  417
  436
  456
  477
  489
  512
  536
  561
  588
  615
  644
  675
  706
  740
  775
  811
  850
  890
  933
  977
  1,024
  1,073
  1,124
  1,178
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -76
  -57
  -63
  -68
  -73
  -78
  -83
  -88
  -94
  -99
  -105
  -111
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -189
  -199
  -209
  -220
  -231
  -243
  -255
  -268
  -282
  -296
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -57
  268
  279
  291
  303
  316
  329
  342
  357
  372
  378
  395
  412
  430
  450
  470
  491
  513
  536
  560
  586
  613
  641
  671
  702
  734
  769
  805
  842
  882
Discount rate, %
 
  8.90
  9.35
  9.81
  10.30
  10.82
  11.36
  11.93
  12.52
  13.15
  13.81
  14.50
  15.22
  15.98
  16.78
  17.62
  18.50
  19.43
  20.40
  21.42
  22.49
  23.61
  24.80
  26.03
  27.34
  28.70
  30.14
  31.65
  33.23
  34.89
  36.63
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -52
  224
  211
  197
  181
  165
  149
  133
  117
  102
  85
  72
  60
  49
  39
  31
  24
  18
  13
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

NorthWestern Corporation, doing business as North-Western Energy, provides electricity and natural gas. The Company's segments are Electric operations, Natural gas operations and All other. As of December 31, 2016, the Company provided electricity and natural gas to approximately 709,600 customers in Montana, South Dakota and Nebraska. It generates and distributes electricity in South Dakota; distributes natural gas in South Dakota and Nebraska, and generates and distributes electricity and distributes natural gas in Montana. Its regulated electric utility business in Montana includes generation, transmission and distribution. As of December 31, 2016, it provided retail electricity in 110 communities in South Dakota. Its regulated natural gas utility business in Montana includes production, storage, transmission and distribution. As of December 31, 2016, it provided natural gas to approximately 88,500 customers in 60 South Dakota communities and four Nebraska communities.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  NorthWestern (NWE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17.2
Price to Sales 2.2
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 2827.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 1.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 108.4%
Total Debt to Equity 126.5%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Total Capital 4.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Equity 10%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 31.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.1%
Operating Margin 19.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Net Profit Margin 13%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Effective Tax Rate -4.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Payout Ratio 58.5%

NWE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NWE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1257 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by NorthWestern. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of NorthWestern. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NWE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.9%, whose default value for NWE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of NorthWestern, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of NorthWestern.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NWE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 78.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NWE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.1% for NorthWestern.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for NorthWestern. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NWE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NWE are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of -1.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in NorthWestern operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NWE is equal to -2.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1676 million for NorthWestern - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 48.7 million for NorthWestern is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of NorthWestern at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to NorthWestern Corp. : August 8, 2017   [Aug-08-17 04:58PM  Capital Cube]
▶ NorthWestern misses 2Q profit forecasts   [Jul-25-17 11:13PM  Associated Press]
▶ How Are ETF Inflows Affecting Small Cap Stocks?   [Jun-08-17 03:29PM  Barrons.com]
▶ ETFs with exposure to NorthWestern Corp. : May 1, 2017   [May-01-17 04:13PM  Capital Cube]
▶ NorthWestern Corp. Welcomes New Board Members   [Apr-27-17 12:22PM  PR Newswire]
▶ NorthWestern beats 1Q profit forecasts   [Apr-26-17 07:36PM  Associated Press]
▶ NorthWestern meets 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-16-17 06:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is NorthWestern Corp (NWE) Going To Burn Investors?   [Dec-16-16 10:04PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ What Smart Money Thinks about Valmont Industries, Inc. (VMI)   [Dec-01-16 12:56PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of NWE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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