Intrinsic value of NorthWestern - NWE

Previous Close

$60.26

  Intrinsic Value

$65.08

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

+8%

  Value-price divergence*

-34%

Previous close

$60.26

 
Intrinsic value

$65.08

 
Up/down potential

+8%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

-34%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NWE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.54
  10.20
  9.68
  9.21
  8.79
  8.41
  8.07
  7.76
  7.49
  7.24
  7.01
  6.81
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.96
  5.87
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.34
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
Revenue, $m
  1,257
  1,385
  1,519
  1,659
  1,805
  1,957
  2,115
  2,279
  2,450
  2,627
  2,811
  3,003
  3,202
  3,409
  3,625
  3,849
  4,083
  4,326
  4,580
  4,845
  5,121
  5,409
  5,711
  6,025
  6,354
  6,699
  7,058
  7,435
  7,829
  8,242
  8,674
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,078
  1,179
  1,284
  1,394
  1,508
  1,627
  1,751
  1,879
  2,013
  2,151
  2,260
  2,410
  2,565
  2,728
  2,896
  3,072
  3,256
  3,447
  3,646
  3,854
  4,071
  4,297
  4,534
  4,782
  5,041
  5,312
  5,595
  5,892
  6,202
  6,528
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,011
  1,078
  1,179
  1,284
  1,394
  1,508
  1,627
  1,751
  1,879
  2,013
  2,151
  2,260
  2,410
  2,565
  2,728
  2,896
  3,072
  3,256
  3,447
  3,646
  3,854
  4,071
  4,297
  4,534
  4,782
  5,041
  5,312
  5,595
  5,892
  6,202
  6,528
Operating income, $m
  246
  307
  340
  375
  411
  449
  488
  528
  570
  614
  660
  743
  792
  844
  897
  953
  1,010
  1,071
  1,133
  1,199
  1,267
  1,339
  1,413
  1,491
  1,573
  1,658
  1,747
  1,840
  1,938
  2,040
  2,147
EBITDA, $m
  405
  343
  376
  411
  447
  484
  523
  564
  606
  650
  696
  743
  792
  844
  897
  953
  1,010
  1,071
  1,133
  1,199
  1,267
  1,339
  1,413
  1,491
  1,573
  1,658
  1,747
  1,840
  1,938
  2,040
  2,147
Interest expense (income), $m
  85
  87
  103
  119
  137
  155
  174
  193
  214
  235
  257
  280
  304
  329
  354
  381
  409
  438
  468
  500
  533
  567
  603
  641
  680
  721
  764
  808
  855
  904
  956
Earnings before tax, $m
  157
  220
  238
  256
  274
  294
  314
  335
  357
  379
  403
  463
  489
  515
  543
  571
  601
  632
  665
  699
  734
  771
  810
  850
  893
  937
  983
  1,032
  1,082
  1,135
  1,191
Tax expense, $m
  -7
  59
  64
  69
  74
  79
  85
  90
  96
  102
  109
  125
  132
  139
  147
  154
  162
  171
  180
  189
  198
  208
  219
  230
  241
  253
  265
  279
  292
  307
  322
Net income, $m
  164
  161
  173
  187
  200
  214
  229
  244
  260
  277
  294
  338
  357
  376
  396
  417
  439
  462
  485
  510
  536
  563
  591
  621
  652
  684
  718
  753
  790
  829
  869

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  5,499
  6,049
  6,635
  7,246
  7,883
  8,546
  9,235
  9,952
  10,698
  11,472
  12,277
  13,113
  13,983
  14,887
  15,828
  16,808
  17,828
  18,891
  20,000
  21,156
  22,362
  23,622
  24,937
  26,312
  27,749
  29,251
  30,823
  32,468
  34,189
  35,992
  37,880
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  5,494
  6,049
  6,635
  7,246
  7,883
  8,546
  9,235
  9,952
  10,698
  11,472
  12,277
  13,113
  13,983
  14,887
  15,828
  16,808
  17,828
  18,891
  20,000
  21,156
  22,362
  23,622
  24,937
  26,312
  27,749
  29,251
  30,823
  32,468
  34,189
  35,992
  37,880
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
  0.229
Average production assets, $m
  -570
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  -334
  -40
  -44
  -48
  -52
  -57
  -61
  -66
  -71
  -76
  -82
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -105
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -133
  -140
  -149
  -157
  -166
  -175
  -184
  -194
  -205
  -216
  -227
  -239
  -252
Total debt, $m
  2,120
  2,501
  2,908
  3,333
  3,775
  4,236
  4,716
  5,214
  5,732
  6,270
  6,829
  7,411
  8,015
  8,644
  9,298
  9,979
  10,688
  11,427
  12,197
  13,000
  13,839
  14,714
  15,628
  16,584
  17,582
  18,627
  19,719
  20,862
  22,059
  23,311
  24,623
Total liabilities, $m
  3,823
  4,204
  4,611
  5,036
  5,478
  5,939
  6,419
  6,917
  7,435
  7,973
  8,532
  9,114
  9,718
  10,347
  11,001
  11,682
  12,391
  13,130
  13,900
  14,703
  15,542
  16,417
  17,331
  18,287
  19,285
  20,330
  21,422
  22,565
  23,762
  25,014
  26,326
Total equity, $m
  1,676
  1,845
  2,024
  2,210
  2,404
  2,606
  2,817
  3,035
  3,263
  3,499
  3,744
  3,999
  4,265
  4,541
  4,828
  5,126
  5,438
  5,762
  6,100
  6,453
  6,821
  7,205
  7,606
  8,025
  8,463
  8,922
  9,401
  9,903
  10,428
  10,978
  11,553
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  5,499
  6,049
  6,635
  7,246
  7,882
  8,545
  9,236
  9,952
  10,698
  11,472
  12,276
  13,113
  13,983
  14,888
  15,829
  16,808
  17,829
  18,892
  20,000
  21,156
  22,363
  23,622
  24,937
  26,312
  27,748
  29,252
  30,823
  32,468
  34,190
  35,992
  37,879
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.265
  1.360
  1.440
  1.510
  1.570
  1.630
  1.670
  1.720
  1.760
  1.790
  1.820
  1.850
  1.880
  1.900
  1.930
  1.950
  1.970
  1.980
  2.000
  2.010
  2.030
  2.040
  2.050
  2.070
  2.080
  2.090
  2.100
  2.110
  2.120
  2.120
  2.130
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305
  0.305

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  164
  161
  173
  187
  200
  214
  229
  244
  260
  277
  294
  338
  357
  376
  396
  417
  439
  462
  485
  510
  536
  563
  591
  621
  652
  684
  718
  753
  790
  829
  869
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  159
  36
  36
  36
  36
  36
  36
  36
  36
  36
  36
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  258
  197
  209
  222
  236
  250
  265
  280
  296
  313
  330
  338
  357
  376
  396
  417
  439
  462
  485
  510
  536
  563
  591
  621
  652
  684
  718
  753
  790
  829
  869
Change in working capital, $m
  -31
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
Cash from operations, $m
  289
  200
  213
  226
  240
  255
  270
  285
  301
  318
  335
  344
  362
  382
  402
  424
  446
  469
  493
  518
  544
  571
  600
  630
  661
  694
  728
  764
  801
  841
  882
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  57
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  -288
  -570
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -287
  -513
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  2
  -312
  213
  226
  240
  255
  270
  285
  301
  318
  335
  344
  362
  382
  402
  424
  446
  469
  493
  518
  544
  571
  600
  630
  661
  694
  728
  764
  801
  841
  882
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  95
  386
  407
  425
  443
  461
  479
  498
  518
  538
  559
  581
  604
  629
  654
  681
  709
  739
  770
  803
  838
  875
  914
  955
  999
  1,044
  1,092
  1,143
  1,196
  1,253
  1,312
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  8
  5
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  87
  394
  412
  425
  443
  461
  479
  498
  518
  538
  559
  581
  604
  629
  654
  681
  709
  739
  770
  803
  838
  875
  914
  955
  999
  1,044
  1,092
  1,143
  1,196
  1,253
  1,312
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  89
  82
  625
  651
  683
  715
  749
  783
  819
  856
  895
  925
  967
  1,011
  1,056
  1,104
  1,155
  1,208
  1,263
  1,321
  1,383
  1,447
  1,514
  1,585
  1,660
  1,738
  1,821
  1,907
  1,998
  2,094
  2,194
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -76
  -169
  -179
  -186
  -194
  -202
  -210
  -219
  -227
  -236
  -245
  -255
  -265
  -276
  -287
  -299
  -311
  -324
  -338
  -353
  -368
  -384
  -401
  -419
  -438
  -458
  -479
  -502
  -525
  -550
  -576
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -87
  447
  465
  489
  513
  539
  565
  592
  620
  649
  670
  702
  735
  769
  806
  844
  883
  925
  969
  1,015
  1,063
  1,113
  1,166
  1,222
  1,280
  1,341
  1,405
  1,473
  1,544
  1,618
Discount rate, %
 
  8.90
  9.35
  9.81
  10.30
  10.82
  11.36
  11.93
  12.52
  13.15
  13.81
  14.50
  15.22
  15.98
  16.78
  17.62
  18.50
  19.43
  20.40
  21.42
  22.49
  23.61
  24.80
  26.03
  27.34
  28.70
  30.14
  31.65
  33.23
  34.89
  36.63
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -80
  374
  351
  330
  307
  282
  257
  230
  204
  178
  151
  128
  107
  88
  71
  56
  43
  33
  24
  18
  12
  9
  6
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.7
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6
  99.6

NorthWestern Corporation, doing business as NorthWestern Energy, provides electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers in Montana, South Dakota, and Nebraska, the United States. It operates through Electric Operations and Natural Gas Operations segments. The company generates, transmits, and distributes electricity; and produces, stores, transmits, and distributes natural gas, as well as has municipal franchises to purchase, transport, and distribute natural gas. It serves approximately 709,600 customers. The company was founded in 1923 and is based in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  NorthWestern (NWE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17.8
Price to Sales 2.3
Price to Book 1.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 2912.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 1.4%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 4.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 108.4%
Total Debt to Equity 126.5%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Total Capital 4.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Return On Equity 10%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 31.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.1%
Operating Margin 19.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 12.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.2%
Net Profit Margin 13%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Effective Tax Rate -4.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Payout Ratio 58.5%

NWE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NWE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1257 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by NorthWestern. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of NorthWestern. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NWE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.9%, whose default value for NWE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of NorthWestern, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of NorthWestern.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NWE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 78.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NWE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.1% for NorthWestern.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for NorthWestern. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NWE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NWE are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in NorthWestern operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NWE is equal to -2.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1676 million for NorthWestern - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 48.756 million for NorthWestern is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of NorthWestern at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to NorthWestern Corp. : August 8, 2017   [Aug-08-17 04:58PM  Capital Cube]
▶ NorthWestern misses 2Q profit forecasts   [Jul-25-17 11:13PM  Associated Press]
▶ How Are ETF Inflows Affecting Small Cap Stocks?   [Jun-08-17 03:29PM  Barrons.com]
▶ ETFs with exposure to NorthWestern Corp. : May 1, 2017   [May-01-17 04:13PM  Capital Cube]
▶ NorthWestern Corp. Welcomes New Board Members   [Apr-27-17 12:22PM  PR Newswire]
▶ NorthWestern beats 1Q profit forecasts   [Apr-26-17 07:36PM  Associated Press]
▶ NorthWestern meets 4Q profit forecasts   [Feb-16-17 06:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is NorthWestern Corp (NWE) Going To Burn Investors?   [Dec-16-16 10:04PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ What Smart Money Thinks about Valmont Industries, Inc. (VMI)   [Dec-01-16 12:56PM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of NWE Financial statements of NWE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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