Intrinsic value of Northwest Natural Gas - NWN

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$60.45

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$60.45

 
Intrinsic value

$28.47

 
Up/down potential

-53%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NWN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -6.63
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  676
  690
  705
  724
  744
  766
  791
  818
  847
  879
  912
  948
  987
  1,028
  1,072
  1,118
  1,167
  1,219
  1,273
  1,331
  1,393
  1,457
  1,525
  1,597
  1,672
  1,752
  1,836
  1,924
  2,017
  2,115
  2,217
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  571
  584
  599
  616
  635
  655
  677
  702
  728
  755
  785
  817
  851
  887
  925
  966
  1,009
  1,054
  1,102
  1,153
  1,206
  1,263
  1,322
  1,385
  1,451
  1,520
  1,593
  1,670
  1,751
  1,836
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  537
  571
  584
  599
  616
  635
  655
  677
  702
  728
  755
  785
  817
  851
  887
  925
  966
  1,009
  1,054
  1,102
  1,153
  1,206
  1,263
  1,322
  1,385
  1,451
  1,520
  1,593
  1,670
  1,751
  1,836
Operating income, $m
  139
  119
  121
  124
  128
  132
  136
  141
  146
  151
  157
  163
  170
  177
  184
  192
  201
  210
  219
  229
  240
  251
  262
  275
  288
  301
  316
  331
  347
  364
  381
EBITDA, $m
  221
  182
  187
  191
  197
  203
  209
  216
  224
  233
  241
  251
  261
  272
  284
  296
  309
  322
  337
  352
  368
  386
  404
  423
  443
  464
  486
  509
  534
  560
  587
Interest expense (income), $m
  36
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  47
  50
  54
  58
  63
  68
  73
  79
  85
  91
  98
  105
  112
  120
  128
  137
  147
  156
  167
  178
  189
  201
  214
  228
  242
Earnings before tax, $m
  100
  85
  86
  87
  87
  88
  89
  90
  91
  93
  94
  95
  97
  98
  100
  101
  103
  105
  107
  109
  111
  113
  116
  118
  121
  124
  126
  130
  133
  136
  140
Tax expense, $m
  41
  23
  23
  23
  24
  24
  24
  24
  25
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  27
  27
  28
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
Net income, $m
  59
  62
  63
  63
  64
  64
  65
  66
  67
  68
  69
  70
  71
  72
  73
  74
  75
  77
  78
  80
  81
  83
  84
  86
  88
  90
  92
  95
  97
  99
  102

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,080
  3,134
  3,206
  3,289
  3,381
  3,484
  3,596
  3,719
  3,851
  3,994
  4,147
  4,311
  4,486
  4,673
  4,871
  5,081
  5,303
  5,539
  5,788
  6,052
  6,330
  6,623
  6,932
  7,259
  7,602
  7,964
  8,345
  8,746
  9,168
  9,612
  10,079
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,076
  3,134
  3,206
  3,289
  3,381
  3,484
  3,596
  3,719
  3,851
  3,994
  4,147
  4,311
  4,486
  4,673
  4,871
  5,081
  5,303
  5,539
  5,788
  6,052
  6,330
  6,623
  6,932
  7,259
  7,602
  7,964
  8,345
  8,746
  9,168
  9,612
  10,079
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
  0.220
Average production assets, $m
  313
  319
  327
  335
  344
  355
  366
  379
  392
  407
  422
  439
  457
  476
  496
  518
  540
  564
  590
  616
  645
  675
  706
  739
  774
  811
  850
  891
  934
  979
  1,027
Working capital, $m
  13
  104
  107
  109
  112
  116
  119
  124
  128
  133
  138
  143
  149
  155
  162
  169
  176
  184
  192
  201
  210
  220
  230
  241
  253
  265
  277
  291
  305
  319
  335
Total debt, $m
  773
  810
  862
  922
  989
  1,063
  1,144
  1,233
  1,328
  1,432
  1,543
  1,661
  1,788
  1,922
  2,065
  2,217
  2,378
  2,549
  2,729
  2,919
  3,120
  3,332
  3,556
  3,792
  4,040
  4,302
  4,578
  4,868
  5,173
  5,494
  5,831
Total liabilities, $m
  2,229
  2,266
  2,318
  2,378
  2,445
  2,519
  2,600
  2,689
  2,784
  2,888
  2,999
  3,117
  3,244
  3,378
  3,521
  3,673
  3,834
  4,005
  4,185
  4,375
  4,576
  4,788
  5,012
  5,248
  5,496
  5,758
  6,034
  6,324
  6,629
  6,950
  7,287
Total equity, $m
  851
  868
  888
  911
  937
  965
  996
  1,030
  1,067
  1,106
  1,149
  1,194
  1,243
  1,294
  1,349
  1,407
  1,469
  1,534
  1,603
  1,676
  1,753
  1,835
  1,920
  2,011
  2,106
  2,206
  2,312
  2,423
  2,540
  2,663
  2,792
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,080
  3,134
  3,206
  3,289
  3,382
  3,484
  3,596
  3,719
  3,851
  3,994
  4,148
  4,311
  4,487
  4,672
  4,870
  5,080
  5,303
  5,539
  5,788
  6,051
  6,329
  6,623
  6,932
  7,259
  7,602
  7,964
  8,346
  8,747
  9,169
  9,613
  10,079
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.908
  0.930
  0.970
  1.010
  1.060
  1.100
  1.150
  1.200
  1.250
  1.290
  1.340
  1.390
  1.440
  1.490
  1.530
  1.580
  1.620
  1.660
  1.700
  1.740
  1.780
  1.820
  1.850
  1.890
  1.920
  1.950
  1.980
  2.010
  2.040
  2.060
  2.090
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277
  0.277

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  59
  62
  63
  63
  64
  64
  65
  66
  67
  68
  69
  70
  71
  72
  73
  74
  75
  77
  78
  80
  81
  83
  84
  86
  88
  90
  92
  95
  97
  99
  102
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  82
  64
  65
  67
  69
  71
  73
  76
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  141
  148
  155
  162
  170
  178
  187
  196
  205
Funds from operations, $m
  246
  126
  128
  130
  133
  135
  138
  142
  145
  149
  153
  157
  162
  167
  172
  178
  183
  189
  196
  203
  210
  218
  226
  234
  243
  252
  262
  273
  284
  295
  307
Change in working capital, $m
  24
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
Cash from operations, $m
  222
  132
  125
  127
  130
  132
  135
  138
  141
  144
  148
  152
  156
  161
  165
  171
  176
  182
  188
  194
  201
  208
  215
  223
  232
  240
  250
  259
  270
  280
  292
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -63
  -64
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -196
New CAPEX, $m
  -140
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -137
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -127
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -211
  -221
  -232
  -244
Free cash flow, $m
  85
  63
  54
  54
  53
  53
  52
  52
  52
  51
  51
  51
  51
  50
  50
  50
  50
  50
  49
  49
  49
  49
  49
  49
  49
  49
  49
  49
  48
  48
  48
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -92
  41
  52
  60
  67
  74
  81
  89
  96
  103
  111
  119
  127
  135
  143
  152
  161
  170
  180
  190
  201
  212
  224
  236
  248
  262
  276
  290
  305
  321
  338
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  60
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -34
  41
  52
  60
  67
  74
  81
  89
  96
  103
  111
  119
  127
  135
  143
  152
  161
  170
  180
  190
  201
  212
  224
  236
  248
  262
  276
  290
  305
  321
  338
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  51
  104
  106
  113
  120
  127
  134
  140
  147
  155
  162
  169
  177
  185
  193
  202
  211
  220
  230
  240
  250
  261
  273
  285
  297
  310
  324
  339
  354
  369
  386
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -70
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  87
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  111
  115
  119
  124
  129
  133
  138
  144
  149
  155
  161
  167
  173
  180
  187
  194
  202
  210
  219
  227
  237
  246
  257
Discount rate, %
 
  7.30
  7.67
  8.05
  8.45
  8.87
  9.32
  9.78
  10.27
  10.79
  11.32
  11.89
  12.49
  13.11
  13.77
  14.45
  15.18
  15.93
  16.73
  17.57
  18.45
  19.37
  20.34
  21.35
  22.42
  23.54
  24.72
  25.96
  27.25
  28.62
  30.05
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  81
  75
  72
  68
  64
  60
  55
  51
  46
  41
  36
  31
  27
  23
  19
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Northwest Natural Gas Company stores and distributes natural gas in the United States. The company operates through two segments, Local Gas Distribution and Gas Storage. The Local Gas Distribution segment engages in the purchase, sale, and delivery of natural gas and related services to residential, commercial, and industrial customers in Oregon and southwest Washington. This segment builds and maintains pipeline distribution system; purchases gas from producers and marketers; contracts for the transportation of gas from the supply basins to service territory over pipelines; and resells gas. It also transports customer-owned gas from the interstate pipeline connection or city gates to the customersÂ’ end-use facilities. The Gas Storage segment provides underground natural gas storage services to interstate and intrastate markets. This segment primarily serves natural gas production or distribution, electric generation, and energy marketing companies. It hold leases and other property interests in approximately 12,000 net acres of underground natural gas storage in Oregon; and approximately 5,000 net acres of underground natural gas storage in California, as well as owns rights to depleted gas reservoirs in Mist, Oregon. Northwest Natural Gas Company was founded in 1859 and is headquartered in Portland, Oregon.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Northwest Natural Gas (NWN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 29.3
Price to Sales 2.6
Price to Book 2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 21.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 18.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.6
LT Debt to Equity 79.9%
Total Debt to Equity 90.8%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Return On Total Capital 3.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.5%
Return On Equity 7.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.3%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 32.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.2%
Operating Margin 20.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 14.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.4%
Net Profit Margin 8.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8%
Effective Tax Rate 41%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.4%
Payout Ratio 88.1%

NWN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NWN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $676 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Northwest Natural Gas. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Northwest Natural Gas. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NWN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7.3%, whose default value for NWN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Northwest Natural Gas, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Northwest Natural Gas.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NWN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 82.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NWN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.4% for Northwest Natural Gas.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Northwest Natural Gas. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NWN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NWN are equal to 46.3%.

Life of production assets of 3.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Northwest Natural Gas operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NWN is equal to 15.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $851 million for Northwest Natural Gas - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 28.596 million for Northwest Natural Gas is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Northwest Natural Gas at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ NW Natural Announces Dividend   [Apr-06-17 07:57PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Northwest Natural Gas misses 4Q profit forecasts   [06:19AM  Associated Press]
▶ NW Natural Announces Dividend   [Jan-12-17 06:11PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Should You Avoid Northwest Natural Gas Co (NWN)?   [Dec-12-16 02:45PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Buying RealPage, Inc. (RP)   [10:40AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ NW Natural Prices Public Offering of Common Stock   [Nov-10-16 10:03PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ NW Natural Announces Common Stock Offering   [04:07PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Four Companies Rewarding Shareholders with a Raise   [Oct-10-16 11:08AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ NW Natural Increases Dividend for 61st Consecutive Year   [Oct-06-16 06:35PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ David H. Anderson Begins Tenure as CEO   [06:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ NW Natural Announces Dividend   [Jul-07-16 06:20PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ NW Natural Announces Dividend   [Apr-07-16 05:04PM  Marketwired]
Stock chart of NWN Financial statements of NWN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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