Intrinsic value of New York Mortgage Trust - NYMT

Previous Close

$6.25

  Intrinsic Value

$10.35

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+66%

Previous close

$6.25

 
Intrinsic value

$10.35

 
Up/down potential

+66%

 
Rating

str. buy

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as NYMT.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NYMT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -6.01
  13.30
  12.47
  11.72
  11.05
  10.45
  9.90
  9.41
  8.97
  8.57
  8.22
  7.89
  7.60
  7.34
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.38
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
Revenue, $m
  360
  408
  459
  513
  569
  629
  691
  756
  824
  894
  968
  1,044
  1,124
  1,206
  1,292
  1,381
  1,474
  1,570
  1,670
  1,774
  1,883
  1,996
  2,114
  2,237
  2,365
  2,499
  2,639
  2,785
  2,938
  3,098
  3,265
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  195
  219
  244
  271
  299
  328
  359
  390
  424
  458
  492
  529
  568
  609
  650
  694
  740
  787
  836
  887
  940
  996
  1,054
  1,114
  1,177
  1,243
  1,312
  1,384
  1,459
  1,538
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  123
  126
  129
  132
  136
  139
  143
  146
  150
  154
  157
  161
  165
  170
  174
  178
  183
  187
  192
  197
  202
  207
  212
  217
  222
  228
  234
  240
  246
  252
Total operating expenses, $m
  289
  318
  345
  373
  403
  435
  467
  502
  536
  574
  612
  649
  690
  733
  779
  824
  872
  923
  974
  1,028
  1,084
  1,142
  1,203
  1,266
  1,331
  1,399
  1,471
  1,546
  1,624
  1,705
  1,790
Operating income, $m
  71
  90
  114
  139
  166
  194
  224
  255
  287
  321
  356
  395
  433
  473
  514
  557
  601
  648
  696
  747
  799
  854
  912
  972
  1,034
  1,100
  1,168
  1,240
  1,315
  1,393
  1,475
EBITDA, $m
  71
  93
  117
  142
  169
  197
  226
  257
  289
  323
  358
  395
  433
  473
  514
  557
  601
  648
  696
  747
  799
  854
  912
  972
  1,034
  1,100
  1,168
  1,240
  1,315
  1,393
  1,475
Interest expense (income), $m
  301
  300
  332
  374
  419
  466
  516
  568
  622
  679
  738
  799
  863
  929
  998
  1,069
  1,144
  1,221
  1,301
  1,385
  1,472
  1,562
  1,657
  1,755
  1,858
  1,965
  2,077
  2,193
  2,315
  2,443
  2,576
Earnings before tax, $m
  71
  -209
  -218
  -235
  -253
  -272
  -292
  -313
  -335
  -358
  -382
  -404
  -430
  -456
  -484
  -513
  -542
  -573
  -605
  -638
  -672
  -708
  -745
  -784
  -824
  -865
  -909
  -954
  -1,001
  -1,050
  -1,101
Tax expense, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  68
  -209
  -218
  -235
  -253
  -272
  -292
  -313
  -335
  -358
  -382
  -404
  -430
  -456
  -484
  -513
  -542
  -573
  -605
  -638
  -672
  -708
  -745
  -784
  -824
  -865
  -909
  -954
  -1,001
  -1,050
  -1,101

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  84
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8,952
  9,948
  11,189
  12,501
  13,882
  15,332
  16,850
  18,436
  20,089
  21,812
  23,604
  25,467
  27,404
  29,416
  31,507
  33,681
  35,941
  38,291
  40,735
  43,279
  45,929
  48,688
  51,565
  54,565
  57,694
  60,961
  64,372
  67,936
  71,661
  75,555
  79,628
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  8,868
  9,948
  11,189
  12,501
  13,882
  15,332
  16,850
  18,436
  20,089
  21,812
  23,604
  25,467
  27,404
  29,416
  31,507
  33,681
  35,941
  38,291
  40,735
  43,279
  45,929
  48,688
  51,565
  54,565
  57,694
  60,961
  64,372
  67,936
  71,661
  75,555
  79,628
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.041
  0.041
  0.041
  0.041
  0.041
  0.041
  0.041
  0.041
  0.041
  0.041
  0.041
  0.041
  0.041
  0.041
  0.041
  0.041
  0.041
  0.041
  0.041
  0.041
  0.041
  0.041
  0.041
  0.041
  0.041
  0.041
  0.041
  0.041
  0.041
  0.041
  0.041
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  -95
  -107
  -119
  -133
  -146
  -161
  -176
  -192
  -208
  -225
  -243
  -262
  -281
  -301
  -322
  -343
  -366
  -389
  -413
  -439
  -465
  -493
  -521
  -551
  -582
  -615
  -649
  -685
  -722
  -761
Total debt, $m
  7,886
  8,735
  9,852
  11,032
  12,276
  13,581
  14,947
  16,374
  17,862
  19,412
  21,025
  22,702
  24,445
  26,256
  28,139
  30,095
  32,129
  34,244
  36,444
  38,733
  41,118
  43,602
  46,191
  48,890
  51,707
  54,647
  57,717
  60,925
  64,277
  67,782
  71,448
Total liabilities, $m
  8,104
  8,953
  10,070
  11,250
  12,494
  13,799
  15,165
  16,592
  18,080
  19,630
  21,243
  22,920
  24,663
  26,474
  28,357
  30,313
  32,347
  34,462
  36,662
  38,951
  41,336
  43,820
  46,409
  49,108
  51,925
  54,865
  57,935
  61,143
  64,495
  68,000
  71,666
Total equity, $m
  848
  995
  1,119
  1,250
  1,388
  1,533
  1,685
  1,844
  2,009
  2,181
  2,360
  2,547
  2,740
  2,942
  3,151
  3,368
  3,594
  3,829
  4,074
  4,328
  4,593
  4,869
  5,157
  5,456
  5,769
  6,096
  6,437
  6,794
  7,166
  7,556
  7,963
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8,952
  9,948
  11,189
  12,500
  13,882
  15,332
  16,850
  18,436
  20,089
  21,811
  23,603
  25,467
  27,403
  29,416
  31,508
  33,681
  35,941
  38,291
  40,736
  43,279
  45,929
  48,689
  51,566
  54,564
  57,694
  60,961
  64,372
  67,937
  71,661
  75,556
  79,629
Debt-to-equity ratio
  9.300
  8.780
  8.810
  8.830
  8.840
  8.860
  8.870
  8.880
  8.890
  8.900
  8.910
  8.910
  8.920
  8.930
  8.930
  8.940
  8.940
  8.940
  8.950
  8.950
  8.950
  8.960
  8.960
  8.960
  8.960
  8.960
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.086
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  68
  -209
  -218
  -235
  -253
  -272
  -292
  -313
  -335
  -358
  -382
  -404
  -430
  -456
  -484
  -513
  -542
  -573
  -605
  -638
  -672
  -708
  -745
  -784
  -824
  -865
  -909
  -954
  -1,001
  -1,050
  -1,101
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  43
  -207
  -215
  -233
  -251
  -270
  -290
  -311
  -333
  -356
  -379
  -404
  -430
  -456
  -484
  -513
  -542
  -573
  -605
  -638
  -672
  -708
  -745
  -784
  -824
  -865
  -909
  -954
  -1,001
  -1,050
  -1,101
Change in working capital, $m
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
Cash from operations, $m
  54
  -196
  -204
  -220
  -237
  -256
  -275
  -296
  -317
  -339
  -362
  -386
  -411
  -437
  -464
  -492
  -521
  -551
  -582
  -614
  -647
  -682
  -718
  -755
  -794
  -834
  -876
  -920
  -965
  -1,012
  -1,062
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  34
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  88
  -196
  -204
  -220
  -237
  -256
  -275
  -296
  -317
  -339
  -362
  -386
  -411
  -437
  -464
  -492
  -521
  -551
  -582
  -614
  -647
  -682
  -718
  -755
  -794
  -834
  -876
  -920
  -965
  -1,012
  -1,062
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -137
  849
  1,116
  1,181
  1,243
  1,305
  1,366
  1,427
  1,488
  1,550
  1,613
  1,677
  1,743
  1,811
  1,882
  1,956
  2,034
  2,115
  2,200
  2,290
  2,384
  2,484
  2,589
  2,700
  2,817
  2,940
  3,070
  3,207
  3,352
  3,505
  3,666
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  14
  440
  342
  366
  391
  417
  444
  472
  501
  530
  561
  590
  623
  658
  693
  730
  768
  808
  849
  893
  937
  984
  1,033
  1,084
  1,137
  1,192
  1,250
  1,310
  1,373
  1,439
  1,508
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  52
  1,289
  1,458
  1,547
  1,634
  1,722
  1,810
  1,899
  1,989
  2,080
  2,174
  2,267
  2,366
  2,469
  2,575
  2,686
  2,802
  2,923
  3,049
  3,183
  3,321
  3,468
  3,622
  3,784
  3,954
  4,132
  4,320
  4,517
  4,725
  4,944
  5,174
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  140
  1,094
  1,255
  1,327
  1,397
  1,466
  1,535
  1,603
  1,672
  1,741
  1,812
  1,881
  1,955
  2,032
  2,111
  2,194
  2,281
  2,372
  2,468
  2,569
  2,675
  2,786
  2,904
  3,028
  3,160
  3,298
  3,444
  3,598
  3,760
  3,932
  4,112
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  33
  -440
  -342
  -366
  -391
  -417
  -444
  -472
  -501
  -530
  -561
  -590
  -623
  -658
  -693
  -730
  -768
  -808
  -849
  -893
  -937
  -984
  -1,033
  -1,084
  -1,137
  -1,192
  -1,250
  -1,310
  -1,373
  -1,439
  -1,508
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  84
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  738
  913
  961
  1,006
  1,049
  1,091
  1,132
  1,171
  1,211
  1,250
  1,291
  1,332
  1,374
  1,418
  1,464
  1,513
  1,564
  1,618
  1,676
  1,737
  1,802
  1,871
  1,945
  2,023
  2,106
  2,194
  2,288
  2,387
  2,493
  2,604
Discount rate, %
 
  14.40
  15.12
  15.88
  16.67
  17.50
  18.38
  19.30
  20.26
  21.28
  22.34
  23.46
  24.63
  25.86
  27.15
  28.51
  29.94
  31.43
  33.01
  34.66
  36.39
  38.21
  40.12
  42.12
  44.23
  46.44
  48.76
  51.20
  53.76
  56.45
  59.27
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  645
  689
  617
  543
  468
  396
  329
  268
  213
  167
  127
  95
  69
  49
  34
  23
  15
  10
  6
  4
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  58.9
  41.5
  29.7
  21.6
  15.8
  11.7
  8.7
  6.6
  5.0
  3.8
  2.9
  2.2
  1.7
  1.4
  1.1
  0.8
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0

New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. is a real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company is engaged in the business of acquiring, investing in, financing and managing primarily mortgage-related assets and financial assets. The Company's investment portfolio includes residential mortgage loans, including second mortgages and loans sourced from distressed markets, non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), multi-family commercial mortgage-backed securities, preferred equity and joint venture equity investments in, and mezzanine loans to, owners of multi-family properties, equity and debt securities issued by entities that invest in residential and commercial real estate and agency RMBS. It may acquire and manage various other types of mortgage-related and financial assets, including, without limitation, collateralized mortgage obligations and securities issued by newly originated residential securitizations, including credit sensitive securities from these securitizations.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 10.2
Price to Sales 1.9
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -100%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 930%
Total Debt to Equity 930%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Total Capital 0.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Return On Equity 7.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.7%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 26.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29%
EBITDA Margin 103.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 102.1%
Operating Margin 19.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 19.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.5%
Net Profit Margin 18.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.4%
Effective Tax Rate 4.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Payout Ratio 173.5%

NYMT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NYMT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $360 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by New York Mortgage Trust. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of New York Mortgage Trust. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NYMT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.4%, whose default value for NYMT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of New York Mortgage Trust, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of New York Mortgage Trust.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NYMT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 47.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $120 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NYMT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.8% for New York Mortgage Trust.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for New York Mortgage Trust. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NYMT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NYMT are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in New York Mortgage Trust operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NYMT is equal to -23.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $848 million for New York Mortgage Trust - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 111.891 million for New York Mortgage Trust is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of New York Mortgage Trust at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ New York Mortgage Trust Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-03-17 04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ New York Mortgage Trust posts 1Q profit   [May-03-17 05:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ How Novadaq Technologies Inc. (NVDQ) Stacks Up Against Its Peers   [Dec-12-16 08:17PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Is Nimble Storage Inc (NMBL) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Nov-28-16 10:37PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of NYMT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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