Intrinsic value of New York REIT - NYRT

Previous Close

$8.24

  Intrinsic Value

$1.41

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-83%

  Value-price divergence*

-4%

Previous close

$8.24

 
Intrinsic value

$1.41

 
Up/down potential

-83%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-4%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as NYRT.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NYRT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -8.57
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  160
  163
  167
  171
  176
  181
  187
  194
  201
  208
  216
  224
  234
  243
  254
  265
  276
  288
  301
  315
  330
  345
  361
  378
  396
  415
  435
  455
  477
  501
  525
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  182
  186
  191
  196
  202
  208
  216
  223
  231
  240
  250
  260
  271
  282
  294
  307
  321
  335
  351
  367
  384
  402
  421
  441
  462
  484
  507
  531
  557
  584
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  213
  182
  186
  191
  196
  202
  208
  216
  223
  231
  240
  250
  260
  271
  282
  294
  307
  321
  335
  351
  367
  384
  402
  421
  441
  462
  484
  507
  531
  557
  584
Operating income, $m
  -53
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -59
EBITDA, $m
  16
  52
  53
  54
  56
  58
  59
  62
  64
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  159
  167
Interest expense (income), $m
  28
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  124
  130
Earnings before tax, $m
  -84
  -57
  -59
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -83
  -57
  -59
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  46
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,152
  2,147
  2,197
  2,253
  2,317
  2,387
  2,464
  2,548
  2,639
  2,736
  2,842
  2,954
  3,074
  3,201
  3,337
  3,481
  3,634
  3,795
  3,966
  4,146
  4,337
  4,538
  4,750
  4,973
  5,209
  5,457
  5,718
  5,992
  6,282
  6,586
  6,906
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,106
  2,147
  2,197
  2,253
  2,317
  2,387
  2,464
  2,548
  2,639
  2,736
  2,842
  2,954
  3,074
  3,201
  3,337
  3,481
  3,634
  3,795
  3,966
  4,146
  4,337
  4,538
  4,750
  4,973
  5,209
  5,457
  5,718
  5,992
  6,282
  6,586
  6,906
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.076
  0.076
  0.076
  0.076
  0.076
  0.076
  0.076
  0.076
  0.076
  0.076
  0.076
  0.076
  0.076
  0.076
  0.076
  0.076
  0.076
  0.076
  0.076
  0.076
  0.076
  0.076
  0.076
  0.076
  0.076
  0.076
  0.076
  0.076
  0.076
  0.076
  0.076
Average production assets, $m
  1,613
  1,645
  1,683
  1,726
  1,774
  1,828
  1,887
  1,951
  2,021
  2,096
  2,176
  2,262
  2,354
  2,452
  2,556
  2,666
  2,783
  2,907
  3,038
  3,176
  3,322
  3,476
  3,638
  3,809
  3,989
  4,179
  4,379
  4,590
  4,811
  5,044
  5,289
Working capital, $m
  0
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
Total debt, $m
  1,108
  1,132
  1,161
  1,194
  1,231
  1,271
  1,316
  1,365
  1,417
  1,474
  1,535
  1,600
  1,670
  1,744
  1,822
  1,906
  1,994
  2,088
  2,187
  2,292
  2,402
  2,519
  2,642
  2,771
  2,908
  3,052
  3,203
  3,363
  3,530
  3,707
  3,892
Total liabilities, $m
  1,221
  1,245
  1,274
  1,307
  1,344
  1,384
  1,429
  1,478
  1,530
  1,587
  1,648
  1,713
  1,783
  1,857
  1,935
  2,019
  2,107
  2,201
  2,300
  2,405
  2,515
  2,632
  2,755
  2,884
  3,021
  3,165
  3,316
  3,476
  3,643
  3,820
  4,005
Total equity, $m
  931
  902
  923
  946
  973
  1,002
  1,035
  1,070
  1,108
  1,149
  1,193
  1,241
  1,291
  1,345
  1,402
  1,462
  1,526
  1,594
  1,666
  1,741
  1,821
  1,906
  1,995
  2,089
  2,188
  2,292
  2,401
  2,517
  2,638
  2,766
  2,900
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,152
  2,147
  2,197
  2,253
  2,317
  2,386
  2,464
  2,548
  2,638
  2,736
  2,841
  2,954
  3,074
  3,202
  3,337
  3,481
  3,633
  3,795
  3,966
  4,146
  4,336
  4,538
  4,750
  4,973
  5,209
  5,457
  5,717
  5,993
  6,281
  6,586
  6,905
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.190
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.270
  1.270
  1.280
  1.280
  1.280
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.300
  1.300
  1.300
  1.310
  1.310
  1.310
  1.320
  1.320
  1.320
  1.320
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.330
  1.340
  1.340
  1.340
  1.340
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420
  0.420

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -83
  -57
  -59
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  155
  163
  170
  179
  187
  196
  206
  216
  226
Funds from operations, $m
  -11
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
Change in working capital, $m
  -8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  -3
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -69
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -81
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -155
  -163
  -170
  -179
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -216
New CAPEX, $m
  -22
  -32
  -38
  -43
  -49
  -54
  -59
  -64
  -70
  -75
  -80
  -86
  -92
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -180
  -190
  -200
  -210
  -221
  -233
  -245
Cash from investing activities, $m
  41
  -101
  -108
  -115
  -123
  -130
  -137
  -145
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -189
  -199
  -209
  -219
  -231
  -243
  -255
  -268
  -282
  -296
  -311
  -326
  -343
  -360
  -379
  -397
  -417
  -439
  -461
Free cash flow, $m
  38
  -88
  -94
  -101
  -108
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -144
  -152
  -161
  -169
  -179
  -188
  -198
  -209
  -220
  -231
  -243
  -256
  -269
  -283
  -297
  -313
  -329
  -345
  -363
  -381
  -401
  -421
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -4
  24
  29
  33
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  65
  70
  74
  79
  83
  88
  94
  99
  105
  110
  117
  123
  130
  137
  144
  151
  159
  168
  176
  186
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  74
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  114
  120
  126
  133
  140
  147
  154
  162
  170
  179
  188
  197
  207
  218
  229
  241
  253
  266
  279
  293
  308
  323
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -27
  98
  108
  117
  125
  134
  143
  152
  162
  171
  181
  191
  203
  214
  226
  237
  250
  264
  278
  293
  307
  324
  341
  359
  378
  397
  417
  438
  461
  484
  509
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  10
  11
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  83
  88
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  104
  -74
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -218
  -229
  -241
  -253
  -266
  -279
  -293
  -308
  -323
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  46
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -17
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -204
  -214
  -224
  -236
Discount rate, %
 
  10.00
  10.50
  11.03
  11.58
  12.16
  12.76
  13.40
  14.07
  14.77
  15.51
  16.29
  17.10
  17.96
  18.86
  19.80
  20.79
  21.83
  22.92
  24.07
  25.27
  26.53
  27.86
  29.25
  30.72
  32.25
  33.86
  35.56
  37.33
  39.20
  41.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -16
  -54
  -50
  -46
  -42
  -37
  -33
  -29
  -25
  -22
  -18
  -15
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  94.6
  89.2
  84.0
  79.0
  74.2
  69.5
  65.1
  60.9
  56.9
  53.1
  49.5
  46.2
  43.0
  40.0
  37.2
  34.6
  32.2
  29.9
  27.7
  25.8
  23.9
  22.2
  20.6
  19.1
  17.7
  16.4
  15.2
  14.1
  13.0
  12.1

New York REIT, Inc. focuses on acquiring commercial real estate, as well as acquiring properties or making other real estate investments that relate to office, retail, multi-family residential, industrial, and hotel property types located primarily in New York City. It intends to qualify as a real estate investment trust for the U.S. federal income tax purposes. The company was formerly known as American Realty Capital New York Recovery REIT, Inc. New York REIT, Inc. was founded in October 2009 and is based in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  New York REIT (NYRT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -16.6
Price to Sales 8.6
Price to Book 1.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -458.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -55.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -8.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -26.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 119%
Total Debt to Equity 119%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.4%
Return On Total Capital -4.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.7%
Return On Equity -8.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.4%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 73.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 74.5%
EBITDA Margin 8.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.2%
Operating Margin -33.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -30.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -52.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -45.2%
Net Profit Margin -51.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -44.6%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio -75.9%

NYRT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NYRT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $160 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by New York REIT. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of New York REIT. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NYRT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 10%, whose default value for NYRT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of New York REIT, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of New York REIT.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NYRT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 111.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NYRT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for New York REIT.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for New York REIT. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NYRT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NYRT are equal to 1007.8%.

Life of production assets of 23.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in New York REIT operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NYRT is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $931 million for New York REIT - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 165.65 million for New York REIT is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of New York REIT at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ New York REIT Announces Results for Second Quarter 2017   [Aug-09-17 04:25PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ New York REIT Announces Sale of 50 Varick Street Property   [Aug-08-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Why New York REIT Stock Dropped 11%   [12:37PM  Motley Fool]
▶ New York REIT Announces Results for First Quarter 2017   [May-10-17 04:47PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to New York REIT, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:12PM  Capital Cube]
▶ New York REIT reports 4Q results   [Mar-01-17 06:18PM  Associated Press]
▶ New York REIT Board Development   [06:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ New York REIT to Liquidate (NYRT)   [06:01AM  at Investopedia]
Stock chart of NYRT Financial statements of NYRT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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