Intrinsic value of New York Times Cl A - NYT

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$17.65

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NYT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -1.52
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,555
  1,586
  1,623
  1,664
  1,711
  1,763
  1,820
  1,882
  1,949
  2,021
  2,099
  2,182
  2,270
  2,365
  2,465
  2,571
  2,684
  2,803
  2,929
  3,063
  3,203
  3,352
  3,508
  3,673
  3,847
  4,030
  4,223
  4,426
  4,640
  4,864
  5,101
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,449
  1,482
  1,520
  1,563
  1,610
  1,661
  1,717
  1,778
  1,843
  1,914
  1,975
  2,055
  2,141
  2,231
  2,328
  2,430
  2,538
  2,652
  2,773
  2,900
  3,034
  3,176
  3,326
  3,483
  3,649
  3,823
  4,007
  4,200
  4,404
  4,618
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,454
  1,449
  1,482
  1,520
  1,563
  1,610
  1,661
  1,717
  1,778
  1,843
  1,914
  1,975
  2,055
  2,141
  2,231
  2,328
  2,430
  2,538
  2,652
  2,773
  2,900
  3,034
  3,176
  3,326
  3,483
  3,649
  3,823
  4,007
  4,200
  4,404
  4,618
Operating income, $m
  102
  137
  140
  144
  149
  153
  159
  165
  171
  178
  185
  207
  215
  224
  233
  243
  254
  265
  277
  290
  303
  317
  332
  348
  364
  382
  400
  419
  439
  461
  483
EBITDA, $m
  164
  203
  207
  213
  219
  225
  233
  241
  249
  258
  268
  279
  290
  302
  315
  329
  343
  358
  374
  392
  410
  429
  449
  470
  492
  515
  540
  566
  593
  622
  652
Interest expense (income), $m
  39
  28
  32
  35
  39
  44
  49
  55
  61
  67
  75
  82
  90
  99
  109
  118
  129
  140
  152
  164
  178
  192
  206
  222
  238
  255
  273
  292
  312
  334
  356
Earnings before tax, $m
  31
  108
  109
  109
  109
  110
  110
  110
  110
  110
  111
  124
  124
  125
  125
  125
  125
  125
  125
  126
  126
  126
  126
  126
  126
  126
  127
  127
  127
  127
  127
Tax expense, $m
  5
  29
  29
  29
  29
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
Net income, $m
  29
  79
  79
  80
  80
  80
  80
  80
  80
  81
  81
  91
  91
  91
  91
  91
  91
  91
  92
  92
  92
  92
  92
  92
  92
  92
  92
  92
  93
  93
  93

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  550
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,185
  1,668
  1,706
  1,750
  1,799
  1,854
  1,914
  1,979
  2,049
  2,125
  2,207
  2,294
  2,387
  2,486
  2,592
  2,704
  2,822
  2,948
  3,080
  3,220
  3,368
  3,524
  3,689
  3,863
  4,045
  4,238
  4,441
  4,654
  4,879
  5,115
  5,364
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,635
  1,668
  1,706
  1,750
  1,799
  1,854
  1,914
  1,979
  2,049
  2,125
  2,207
  2,294
  2,387
  2,486
  2,592
  2,704
  2,822
  2,948
  3,080
  3,220
  3,368
  3,524
  3,689
  3,863
  4,045
  4,238
  4,441
  4,654
  4,879
  5,115
  5,364
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
Average production assets, $m
  620
  631
  646
  662
  681
  702
  724
  749
  776
  804
  835
  868
  904
  941
  981
  1,023
  1,068
  1,116
  1,166
  1,219
  1,275
  1,334
  1,396
  1,462
  1,531
  1,604
  1,681
  1,762
  1,847
  1,936
  2,030
Working capital, $m
  397
  -155
  -159
  -163
  -168
  -173
  -178
  -184
  -191
  -198
  -206
  -214
  -222
  -232
  -242
  -252
  -263
  -275
  -287
  -300
  -314
  -328
  -344
  -360
  -377
  -395
  -414
  -434
  -455
  -477
  -500
Total debt, $m
  247
  274
  306
  342
  382
  426
  475
  529
  586
  649
  715
  787
  863
  944
  1,030
  1,122
  1,218
  1,321
  1,430
  1,544
  1,665
  1,793
  1,928
  2,070
  2,219
  2,377
  2,543
  2,717
  2,901
  3,094
  3,297
Total liabilities, $m
  1,338
  1,364
  1,396
  1,432
  1,472
  1,516
  1,565
  1,619
  1,676
  1,739
  1,805
  1,877
  1,953
  2,034
  2,120
  2,212
  2,308
  2,411
  2,520
  2,634
  2,755
  2,883
  3,018
  3,160
  3,309
  3,467
  3,633
  3,807
  3,991
  4,184
  4,387
Total equity, $m
  848
  304
  311
  319
  327
  337
  348
  360
  373
  387
  402
  418
  434
  453
  472
  492
  514
  536
  561
  586
  613
  641
  671
  703
  736
  771
  808
  847
  888
  931
  976
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,186
  1,668
  1,707
  1,751
  1,799
  1,853
  1,913
  1,979
  2,049
  2,126
  2,207
  2,295
  2,387
  2,487
  2,592
  2,704
  2,822
  2,947
  3,081
  3,220
  3,368
  3,524
  3,689
  3,863
  4,045
  4,238
  4,441
  4,654
  4,879
  5,115
  5,363
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.291
  0.900
  0.980
  1.070
  1.170
  1.260
  1.360
  1.470
  1.570
  1.680
  1.780
  1.880
  1.990
  2.090
  2.180
  2.280
  2.370
  2.460
  2.550
  2.630
  2.720
  2.800
  2.870
  2.940
  3.010
  3.080
  3.150
  3.210
  3.270
  3.320
  3.380
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  29
  79
  79
  80
  80
  80
  80
  80
  80
  81
  81
  91
  91
  91
  91
  91
  91
  91
  92
  92
  92
  92
  92
  92
  92
  92
  92
  92
  93
  93
  93
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  62
  66
  67
  69
  70
  72
  74
  76
  78
  81
  83
  72
  75
  78
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
Funds from operations, $m
  80
  145
  147
  148
  150
  152
  154
  156
  159
  161
  164
  163
  166
  169
  173
  177
  180
  184
  189
  193
  198
  203
  208
  214
  220
  226
  232
  239
  246
  254
  262
Change in working capital, $m
  -14
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
Cash from operations, $m
  94
  136
  150
  152
  155
  157
  160
  162
  165
  168
  171
  171
  175
  179
  183
  187
  191
  196
  201
  206
  212
  218
  224
  230
  237
  244
  251
  259
  267
  276
  285
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -52
  -53
  -54
  -55
  -57
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -161
New CAPEX, $m
  -30
  -12
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
Cash from investing activities, $m
  128
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -211
  -221
  -232
  -243
  -255
Free cash flow, $m
  222
  72
  83
  82
  81
  80
  78
  77
  76
  75
  74
  69
  67
  66
  64
  63
  61
  60
  58
  56
  54
  52
  50
  48
  46
  43
  41
  38
  36
  33
  30
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -190
  27
  31
  36
  40
  45
  49
  53
  58
  62
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  97
  103
  108
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
  193
  203
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -201
  27
  31
  36
  40
  45
  49
  53
  58
  62
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  91
  97
  103
  108
  115
  121
  128
  135
  142
  150
  158
  166
  175
  184
  193
  203
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  21
  100
  114
  118
  121
  124
  127
  131
  134
  137
  140
  140
  143
  147
  151
  154
  158
  162
  166
  171
  175
  180
  185
  190
  195
  201
  207
  213
  219
  226
  233
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -21
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  550
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  644
  107
  110
  112
  114
  117
  119
  121
  123
  125
  124
  126
  129
  131
  134
  137
  139
  142
  145
  148
  152
  155
  158
  162
  166
  170
  174
  178
  183
  188
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  617
  98
  96
  92
  89
  85
  80
  76
  71
  66
  59
  54
  49
  44
  39
  35
  30
  26
  22
  19
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The New York Times Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides news and information for readers and viewers across various platforms worldwide. The company provides The New York Times (The Times), a daily and Sunday newspapers in the United States, as well as international edition of The Times; and operates the NYTimes.com Website. It also transmits articles, graphics, and photographs from The Times and other publications to approximately 2000 newspapers, magazines, and Websites; and offers product licensing, book development, news digests, and rights and permissions, as well as is involved in online retail store business. In addition, the company engages in NYT Live business, a platform for its live journalism; and digital archive distribution, which licenses electronic archive databases to resellers of that information in the business, professional, and library markets. Further, it develops mobile applications, including NYT cooking, Crossword, and others; and operates product review and recommendation Websites that serve as a guide to technology gear, home products, and other consumer goods. The New York Times Company was founded in 1896 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  New York Times Cl A (NYT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 98.1
Price to Sales 1.8
Price to Book 3.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 30.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 44.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 11.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 29.1%
Total Debt to Equity 29.1%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Return On Total Capital 2.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Return On Equity 3.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 59.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60%
EBITDA Margin 8.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
Operating Margin 6.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Net Profit Margin 1.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Effective Tax Rate 16.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Payout Ratio 89.7%

NYT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NYT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1555 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by New York Times Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of New York Times Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NYT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NYT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of New York Times Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of New York Times Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NYT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NYT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 11.5% for New York Times Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for New York Times Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NYT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NYT are equal to 39.8%.

Life of production assets of 12 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in New York Times Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NYT is equal to -9.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $848 million for New York Times Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 156.463 million for New York Times Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of New York Times Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.8 billion.


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Stock chart of NYT Financial statements of NYT Annual reports of NYT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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