Intrinsic value of New York Times Cl A - NYT

Previous Close

$18.10

  Intrinsic Value

$13.10

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-28%

  Value-price divergence*

-37%

Previous close

$18.10

 
Intrinsic value

$13.10

 
Up/down potential

-28%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-37%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of NYT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -1.52
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
  5.00
Revenue, $m
  1,555
  1,633
  1,714
  1,800
  1,890
  1,985
  2,084
  2,188
  2,297
  2,412
  2,533
  2,660
  2,793
  2,932
  3,079
  3,233
  3,394
  3,564
  3,742
  3,929
  4,126
  4,332
  4,549
  4,776
  5,015
  5,266
  5,529
  5,806
  6,096
  6,401
  6,721
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,492
  1,566
  1,643
  1,725
  1,810
  1,900
  1,994
  2,093
  2,197
  2,307
  2,408
  2,528
  2,655
  2,787
  2,927
  3,073
  3,227
  3,388
  3,557
  3,735
  3,922
  4,118
  4,324
  4,540
  4,767
  5,006
  5,256
  5,519
  5,795
  6,084
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,454
  1,492
  1,566
  1,643
  1,725
  1,810
  1,900
  1,994
  2,093
  2,197
  2,307
  2,408
  2,528
  2,655
  2,787
  2,927
  3,073
  3,227
  3,388
  3,557
  3,735
  3,922
  4,118
  4,324
  4,540
  4,767
  5,006
  5,256
  5,519
  5,795
  6,084
Operating income, $m
  102
  141
  149
  157
  165
  174
  184
  194
  204
  215
  226
  252
  264
  278
  292
  306
  321
  337
  354
  372
  391
  410
  431
  452
  475
  499
  524
  550
  577
  606
  636
EBITDA, $m
  164
  209
  219
  230
  242
  254
  266
  280
  294
  308
  324
  340
  357
  375
  394
  413
  434
  456
  478
  502
  527
  554
  582
  611
  641
  673
  707
  742
  779
  818
  859
Interest expense (income), $m
  39
  28
  36
  44
  53
  62
  71
  81
  91
  102
  113
  125
  138
  151
  165
  179
  194
  210
  227
  245
  263
  283
  303
  325
  347
  371
  396
  422
  449
  478
  508
Earnings before tax, $m
  31
  113
  113
  113
  113
  113
  113
  113
  113
  113
  113
  127
  127
  127
  127
  127
  127
  127
  127
  127
  127
  127
  128
  128
  128
  128
  128
  128
  128
  128
  129
Tax expense, $m
  5
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  30
  31
  31
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  34
  35
  35
  35
  35
  35
  35
Net income, $m
  29
  82
  82
  82
  82
  82
  82
  82
  82
  82
  83
  92
  92
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  94
  94
  94
  94

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  550
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,185
  1,717
  1,803
  1,893
  1,987
  2,087
  2,191
  2,301
  2,416
  2,537
  2,663
  2,797
  2,936
  3,083
  3,237
  3,399
  3,569
  3,748
  3,935
  4,132
  4,338
  4,555
  4,783
  5,022
  5,273
  5,537
  5,814
  6,105
  6,410
  6,730
  7,067
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,635
  1,717
  1,803
  1,893
  1,987
  2,087
  2,191
  2,301
  2,416
  2,537
  2,663
  2,797
  2,936
  3,083
  3,237
  3,399
  3,569
  3,748
  3,935
  4,132
  4,338
  4,555
  4,783
  5,022
  5,273
  5,537
  5,814
  6,105
  6,410
  6,730
  7,067
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
  0.951
Average production assets, $m
  620
  650
  682
  716
  752
  790
  829
  871
  914
  960
  1,008
  1,059
  1,111
  1,167
  1,225
  1,287
  1,351
  1,419
  1,489
  1,564
  1,642
  1,724
  1,810
  1,901
  1,996
  2,096
  2,201
  2,311
  2,426
  2,547
  2,675
Working capital, $m
  397
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -204
  -214
  -225
  -236
  -248
  -261
  -274
  -287
  -302
  -317
  -333
  -349
  -367
  -385
  -404
  -425
  -446
  -468
  -491
  -516
  -542
  -569
  -597
  -627
  -659
Total debt, $m
  247
  314
  385
  458
  536
  617
  702
  792
  886
  985
  1,089
  1,198
  1,312
  1,432
  1,558
  1,691
  1,830
  1,976
  2,129
  2,290
  2,459
  2,636
  2,823
  3,018
  3,224
  3,439
  3,666
  3,904
  4,153
  4,415
  4,691
Total liabilities, $m
  1,338
  1,404
  1,475
  1,548
  1,626
  1,707
  1,792
  1,882
  1,976
  2,075
  2,179
  2,288
  2,402
  2,522
  2,648
  2,781
  2,920
  3,066
  3,219
  3,380
  3,549
  3,726
  3,913
  4,108
  4,314
  4,529
  4,756
  4,994
  5,243
  5,505
  5,781
Total equity, $m
  848
  312
  328
  344
  362
  380
  399
  419
  440
  462
  485
  509
  534
  561
  589
  619
  650
  682
  716
  752
  790
  829
  871
  914
  960
  1,008
  1,058
  1,111
  1,167
  1,225
  1,286
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,186
  1,716
  1,803
  1,892
  1,988
  2,087
  2,191
  2,301
  2,416
  2,537
  2,664
  2,797
  2,936
  3,083
  3,237
  3,400
  3,570
  3,748
  3,935
  4,132
  4,339
  4,555
  4,784
  5,022
  5,274
  5,537
  5,814
  6,105
  6,410
  6,730
  7,067
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.291
  1.010
  1.170
  1.330
  1.480
  1.620
  1.760
  1.890
  2.020
  2.130
  2.250
  2.350
  2.450
  2.550
  2.640
  2.730
  2.820
  2.900
  2.970
  3.050
  3.110
  3.180
  3.240
  3.300
  3.360
  3.410
  3.460
  3.510
  3.560
  3.600
  3.650
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182
  0.182

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  29
  82
  82
  82
  82
  82
  82
  82
  82
  82
  83
  92
  92
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  93
  94
  94
  94
  94
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  62
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  88
  93
  97
  102
  107
  113
  118
  124
  130
  137
  144
  151
  158
  166
  175
  183
  193
  202
  212
  223
Funds from operations, $m
  80
  150
  153
  155
  158
  162
  165
  168
  172
  176
  180
  181
  185
  190
  195
  200
  205
  211
  217
  223
  230
  237
  244
  252
  260
  268
  277
  286
  296
  306
  317
Change in working capital, $m
  -14
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
Cash from operations, $m
  94
  158
  161
  164
  167
  171
  175
  179
  183
  187
  192
  193
  198
  203
  209
  215
  221
  228
  234
  242
  249
  257
  265
  274
  283
  293
  303
  313
  324
  336
  348
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -175
  -183
  -193
  -202
  -212
New CAPEX, $m
  -30
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -121
  -127
Cash from investing activities, $m
  128
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -149
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -181
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -219
  -230
  -242
  -253
  -266
  -280
  -293
  -309
  -323
  -339
Free cash flow, $m
  222
  76
  74
  73
  72
  71
  69
  68
  67
  65
  64
  59
  57
  55
  53
  52
  50
  47
  45
  43
  41
  38
  35
  32
  30
  26
  23
  20
  16
  12
  8
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -190
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  139
  146
  153
  161
  169
  177
  186
  196
  205
  216
  226
  238
  250
  262
  275
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -201
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  139
  146
  153
  161
  169
  177
  186
  196
  205
  216
  226
  238
  250
  262
  275
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  21
  143
  144
  147
  149
  152
  155
  158
  161
  164
  168
  168
  171
  175
  180
  184
  189
  193
  199
  204
  210
  215
  222
  228
  235
  242
  250
  258
  266
  275
  284
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -21
  -14
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  550
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  679
  129
  130
  132
  134
  136
  138
  140
  142
  145
  143
  146
  149
  152
  155
  158
  161
  164
  168
  172
  176
  180
  185
  189
  194
  199
  205
  210
  216
  222
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  651
  118
  113
  109
  104
  99
  93
  87
  82
  76
  68
  62
  57
  51
  45
  40
  35
  30
  26
  22
  18
  15
  12
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The New York Times Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides news and information for readers and viewers across various platforms worldwide. The company provides The New York Times (The Times), a daily and Sunday newspapers in the United States, as well as international edition of The Times; and operates the NYTimes.com Website. It also transmits articles, graphics, and photographs from The Times and other publications to approximately 2000 newspapers, magazines, and Websites; and offers product licensing, book development, news digests, and rights and permissions, as well as is involved in online retail store business. In addition, the company engages in NYT Live business, a platform for its live journalism; and digital archive distribution, which licenses electronic archive databases to resellers of that information in the business, professional, and library markets. Further, it develops mobile applications, including NYT cooking, Crossword, and others; and operates product review and recommendation Websites that serve as a guide to technology gear, home products, and other consumer goods. The New York Times Company was founded in 1896 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  New York Times Cl A (NYT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 100.6
Price to Sales 1.9
Price to Book 3.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 31
Price to Free Cash Flow 45.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -1.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 11.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 12%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 29.1%
Total Debt to Equity 29.1%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Return On Total Capital 2.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Return On Equity 3.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 59.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60%
EBITDA Margin 8.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
Operating Margin 6.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Net Profit Margin 1.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Effective Tax Rate 16.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
Payout Ratio 89.7%

NYT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the NYT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1555 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by New York Times Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of New York Times Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our NYT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for NYT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of New York Times Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of New York Times Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of NYT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for NYT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 11.5% for New York Times Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for New York Times Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the NYT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for NYT are equal to 39.8%.

Life of production assets of 12 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in New York Times Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for NYT is equal to -9.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $848 million for New York Times Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 156.463 million for New York Times Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of New York Times Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.8 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ Why New York Times Shares Have Been Surging   [04:32PM  Bloomberg Video]
▶ New York Times asks 'Fox & Friends' for apology   [Jul-23-17 09:18PM  Associated Press]
▶ NY Times is putting the nation in danger: Lt. Gen. McInerney   [Jul-21-17 06:23PM  Fox Business Videos]
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▶ Trump blasts AG Jeff Sessions over recusal   [07:24AM  Fox Business Videos]
▶ [$$] Our Changing News Climate   [Jul-18-17 05:06PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Newspapers Seek Congress' Help In Dealing With Facebook, Google   [Jul-09-17 07:48PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ 20 college discounts you never knew existed   [Jul-05-17 03:16PM  Yahoo Finance]
▶ [$$] New York Times Staffers Stage Walkout to Protest Job Cuts   [Jun-29-17 04:57PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Mama Grizzly v. The Gray Lady   [02:48PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ [$$] Sarah Palin Sues New York Times, Alleging Defamation in Editorial   [Jun-27-17 09:28PM  The Wall Street Journal]
Stock chart of NYT Financial statements of NYT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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