Intrinsic value of Owens Corning - OC

Previous Close

$80.11

  Intrinsic Value

$58.26

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-27%

Previous close

$80.11

 
Intrinsic value

$58.26

 
Up/down potential

-27%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of OC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 8.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.11
  3.40
  3.56
  3.70
  3.83
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.23
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.92
Revenue, $m
  5,677
  5,870
  6,079
  6,304
  6,546
  6,804
  7,080
  7,374
  7,686
  8,018
  8,369
  8,741
  9,134
  9,549
  9,988
  10,451
  10,939
  11,453
  11,996
  12,567
  13,168
  13,800
  14,466
  15,167
  15,904
  16,679
  17,493
  18,350
  19,250
  20,197
  21,191
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  3,265
  3,377
  3,497
  3,626
  3,764
  3,911
  4,067
  4,234
  4,411
  4,598
  4,663
  4,873
  5,094
  5,328
  5,575
  5,836
  6,110
  6,399
  6,704
  7,025
  7,362
  7,717
  8,091
  8,484
  8,897
  9,332
  9,789
  10,269
  10,774
  11,305
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  1,911
  1,958
  2,007
  2,058
  2,109
  2,162
  2,216
  2,271
  2,328
  2,386
  2,446
  2,507
  2,570
  2,634
  2,700
  2,767
  2,836
  2,907
  2,980
  3,054
  3,131
  3,209
  3,289
  3,371
  3,456
  3,542
  3,631
  3,721
  3,815
  3,910
Total operating expenses, $m
  4,979
  5,176
  5,335
  5,504
  5,684
  5,873
  6,073
  6,283
  6,505
  6,739
  6,984
  7,109
  7,380
  7,664
  7,962
  8,275
  8,603
  8,946
  9,306
  9,684
  10,079
  10,493
  10,926
  11,380
  11,855
  12,353
  12,874
  13,420
  13,990
  14,589
  15,215
Operating income, $m
  698
  694
  744
  800
  863
  932
  1,008
  1,091
  1,181
  1,279
  1,385
  1,632
  1,754
  1,886
  2,026
  2,176
  2,336
  2,507
  2,689
  2,883
  3,089
  3,308
  3,540
  3,787
  4,048
  4,325
  4,619
  4,930
  5,259
  5,608
  5,977
EBITDA, $m
  1,041
  1,100
  1,159
  1,226
  1,300
  1,381
  1,470
  1,566
  1,671
  1,784
  1,906
  2,037
  2,178
  2,328
  2,489
  2,660
  2,843
  3,038
  3,245
  3,465
  3,699
  3,947
  4,210
  4,490
  4,785
  5,098
  5,430
  5,781
  6,152
  6,544
  6,959
Interest expense (income), $m
  118
  124
  132
  140
  149
  159
  170
  181
  193
  205
  219
  233
  248
  264
  281
  298
  317
  337
  358
  380
  403
  427
  453
  480
  508
  538
  569
  602
  637
  673
  711
Earnings before tax, $m
  590
  570
  612
  660
  713
  773
  838
  910
  989
  1,074
  1,166
  1,399
  1,506
  1,622
  1,745
  1,878
  2,019
  2,170
  2,331
  2,503
  2,686
  2,881
  3,087
  3,307
  3,540
  3,788
  4,050
  4,328
  4,623
  4,935
  5,265
Tax expense, $m
  188
  154
  165
  178
  193
  209
  226
  246
  267
  290
  315
  378
  407
  438
  471
  507
  545
  586
  629
  676
  725
  778
  834
  893
  956
  1,023
  1,094
  1,169
  1,248
  1,332
  1,422
Net income, $m
  393
  416
  447
  482
  521
  564
  612
  664
  722
  784
  851
  1,021
  1,100
  1,184
  1,274
  1,371
  1,474
  1,584
  1,702
  1,827
  1,961
  2,103
  2,254
  2,414
  2,584
  2,765
  2,957
  3,160
  3,375
  3,602
  3,844

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  112
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,741
  7,890
  8,171
  8,473
  8,798
  9,146
  9,517
  9,911
  10,331
  10,777
  11,249
  11,748
  12,277
  12,835
  13,425
  14,047
  14,703
  15,394
  16,123
  16,890
  17,698
  18,549
  19,444
  20,386
  21,376
  22,417
  23,513
  24,664
  25,874
  27,146
  28,483
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,629
  7,890
  8,171
  8,473
  8,798
  9,146
  9,517
  9,911
  10,331
  10,777
  11,249
  11,748
  12,277
  12,835
  13,425
  14,047
  14,703
  15,394
  16,123
  16,890
  17,698
  18,549
  19,444
  20,386
  21,376
  22,417
  23,513
  24,664
  25,874
  27,146
  28,483
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
  0.744
Average production assets, $m
  4,103
  4,244
  4,395
  4,558
  4,733
  4,920
  5,119
  5,332
  5,557
  5,797
  6,051
  6,320
  6,604
  6,904
  7,221
  7,556
  7,909
  8,281
  8,673
  9,086
  9,520
  9,978
  10,459
  10,966
  11,498
  12,059
  12,648
  13,267
  13,918
  14,602
  15,321
Working capital, $m
  623
  534
  553
  574
  596
  619
  644
  671
  699
  730
  762
  795
  831
  869
  909
  951
  995
  1,042
  1,092
  1,144
  1,198
  1,256
  1,316
  1,380
  1,447
  1,518
  1,592
  1,670
  1,752
  1,838
  1,928
Total debt, $m
  2,104
  2,236
  2,379
  2,533
  2,699
  2,876
  3,065
  3,267
  3,481
  3,708
  3,949
  4,204
  4,473
  4,758
  5,059
  5,376
  5,710
  6,063
  6,435
  6,826
  7,238
  7,672
  8,128
  8,609
  9,114
  9,645
  10,203
  10,791
  11,408
  12,057
  12,738
Total liabilities, $m
  3,892
  4,024
  4,167
  4,321
  4,487
  4,664
  4,853
  5,055
  5,269
  5,496
  5,737
  5,992
  6,261
  6,546
  6,847
  7,164
  7,498
  7,851
  8,223
  8,614
  9,026
  9,460
  9,916
  10,397
  10,902
  11,433
  11,991
  12,579
  13,196
  13,845
  14,526
Total equity, $m
  3,849
  3,866
  4,004
  4,152
  4,311
  4,481
  4,663
  4,857
  5,062
  5,281
  5,512
  5,757
  6,016
  6,289
  6,578
  6,883
  7,204
  7,543
  7,900
  8,276
  8,672
  9,089
  9,528
  9,989
  10,474
  10,985
  11,521
  12,085
  12,678
  13,302
  13,957
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,741
  7,890
  8,171
  8,473
  8,798
  9,145
  9,516
  9,912
  10,331
  10,777
  11,249
  11,749
  12,277
  12,835
  13,425
  14,047
  14,702
  15,394
  16,123
  16,890
  17,698
  18,549
  19,444
  20,386
  21,376
  22,418
  23,512
  24,664
  25,874
  27,147
  28,483
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.547
  0.580
  0.590
  0.610
  0.630
  0.640
  0.660
  0.670
  0.690
  0.700
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.870
  0.880
  0.890
  0.890
  0.900
  0.910
  0.910
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490
  0.490

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  393
  416
  447
  482
  521
  564
  612
  664
  722
  784
  851
  1,021
  1,100
  1,184
  1,274
  1,371
  1,474
  1,584
  1,702
  1,827
  1,961
  2,103
  2,254
  2,414
  2,584
  2,765
  2,957
  3,160
  3,375
  3,602
  3,844
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  343
  406
  415
  426
  437
  449
  462
  475
  490
  505
  521
  405
  423
  443
  463
  484
  507
  531
  556
  582
  610
  640
  670
  703
  737
  773
  811
  850
  892
  936
  982
Funds from operations, $m
  951
  822
  862
  907
  958
  1,013
  1,074
  1,140
  1,211
  1,289
  1,373
  1,426
  1,523
  1,626
  1,737
  1,855
  1,981
  2,115
  2,258
  2,410
  2,571
  2,742
  2,924
  3,117
  3,321
  3,538
  3,767
  4,010
  4,267
  4,539
  4,826
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  18
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
Cash from operations, $m
  943
  804
  843
  887
  936
  989
  1,049
  1,113
  1,183
  1,259
  1,341
  1,393
  1,487
  1,589
  1,697
  1,813
  1,936
  2,068
  2,209
  2,358
  2,516
  2,685
  2,864
  3,053
  3,254
  3,467
  3,693
  3,932
  4,185
  4,452
  4,735
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -263
  -272
  -282
  -292
  -303
  -315
  -328
  -342
  -356
  -372
  -388
  -405
  -423
  -443
  -463
  -484
  -507
  -531
  -556
  -582
  -610
  -640
  -670
  -703
  -737
  -773
  -811
  -850
  -892
  -936
New CAPEX, $m
  -373
  -142
  -151
  -163
  -175
  -187
  -199
  -212
  -226
  -240
  -254
  -269
  -284
  -300
  -317
  -335
  -353
  -372
  -392
  -413
  -435
  -457
  -481
  -506
  -533
  -560
  -589
  -619
  -651
  -684
  -719
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -815
  -405
  -423
  -445
  -467
  -490
  -514
  -540
  -568
  -596
  -626
  -657
  -689
  -723
  -760
  -798
  -837
  -879
  -923
  -969
  -1,017
  -1,067
  -1,121
  -1,176
  -1,236
  -1,297
  -1,362
  -1,430
  -1,501
  -1,576
  -1,655
Free cash flow, $m
  128
  400
  420
  442
  469
  499
  534
  572
  616
  663
  715
  736
  798
  865
  937
  1,015
  1,099
  1,189
  1,286
  1,389
  1,499
  1,617
  1,743
  1,876
  2,019
  2,170
  2,331
  2,502
  2,683
  2,876
  3,080
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  226
  135
  143
  154
  166
  177
  189
  201
  214
  227
  241
  255
  269
  285
  301
  317
  335
  353
  372
  391
  412
  434
  456
  480
  505
  531
  559
  587
  617
  649
  682
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -247
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -7
  135
  143
  154
  166
  177
  189
  201
  214
  227
  241
  255
  269
  285
  301
  317
  335
  353
  372
  391
  412
  434
  456
  480
  505
  531
  559
  587
  617
  649
  682
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  103
  535
  563
  597
  634
  676
  723
  774
  830
  890
  956
  991
  1,067
  1,150
  1,238
  1,333
  1,434
  1,542
  1,657
  1,780
  1,911
  2,051
  2,199
  2,357
  2,524
  2,701
  2,890
  3,089
  3,301
  3,525
  3,762
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -110
  -126
  -138
  -148
  -159
  -170
  -182
  -194
  -206
  -218
  -231
  -245
  -259
  -274
  -289
  -305
  -321
  -339
  -357
  -376
  -396
  -417
  -439
  -461
  -485
  -510
  -537
  -564
  -593
  -623
  -655
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  109
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  518
  426
  448
  475
  506
  541
  580
  624
  672
  725
  746
  808
  876
  949
  1,028
  1,112
  1,203
  1,300
  1,404
  1,515
  1,634
  1,761
  1,895
  2,039
  2,191
  2,353
  2,525
  2,708
  2,901
  3,107
Discount rate, %
 
  5.20
  5.46
  5.73
  6.02
  6.32
  6.64
  6.97
  7.32
  7.68
  8.07
  8.47
  8.89
  9.34
  9.81
  10.30
  10.81
  11.35
  11.92
  12.51
  13.14
  13.80
  14.49
  15.21
  15.97
  16.77
  17.61
  18.49
  19.41
  20.38
  21.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  492
  383
  379
  376
  373
  368
  362
  355
  345
  334
  305
  291
  274
  256
  236
  215
  193
  171
  149
  128
  108
  90
  73
  58
  45
  35
  26
  19
  13
  9
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Owens Corning is engaged in the business of composite and building materials systems, delivering a range of products and services. The Company's products range from glass fiber used to reinforce composite materials for transportation, electronics, marine, infrastructure, wind-energy and other markets to insulation and roofing for residential, commercial and industrial applications. The Company's segments include Composites, Insulation and Roofing. The Composites segment sells glass fiber and/or glass mat directly to a small number of shingle manufacturers. Its insulating products include thermal and acoustical batts, loosefill insulation, foam sheathing and accessories, and these are sold under brand names, such as Owens Corning PINK FIBERGLAS Insulation. The primary products in the Roofing segment are laminate and strip asphalt roofing shingles. Its other products include oxidized asphalt, roofing components and synthetic packaging materials.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Owens Corning (OC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 23
Price to Sales 1.6
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 15.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 37
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 54.6%
Total Debt to Equity 54.7%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Total Capital 6.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Equity 10.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 21.7%
EBITDA Margin 18.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.7%
Operating Margin 12.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Net Profit Margin 6.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.8%
Effective Tax Rate 31.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.2%
Payout Ratio 20.6%

OC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $5677 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Owens Corning. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Owens Corning. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 3.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.2%, whose default value for OC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Owens Corning, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Owens Corning.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 55.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1864 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.9% for Owens Corning.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Owens Corning. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OC are equal to 72.3%.

Life of production assets of 15.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Owens Corning operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OC is equal to 9.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3849 million for Owens Corning - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 111.222 million for Owens Corning is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Owens Corning at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $8.9 billion.

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Financial statements of OC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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