Intrinsic value of OCI Partners - OCIP

Previous Close

$8.35

  Intrinsic Value

$0.43

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-95%

  Value-price divergence*

-114%

Previous close

$8.35

 
Intrinsic value

$0.43

 
Up/down potential

-95%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-114%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of OCIP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -16.50
  32.90
  30.11
  27.60
  25.34
  23.31
  21.47
  19.83
  18.34
  17.01
  15.81
  14.73
  13.76
  12.88
  12.09
  11.38
  10.74
  10.17
  9.65
  9.19
  8.77
  8.39
  8.05
  7.75
  7.47
  7.23
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
Revenue, $m
  258
  343
  446
  569
  713
  880
  1,069
  1,281
  1,516
  1,773
  2,054
  2,356
  2,680
  3,025
  3,391
  3,777
  4,183
  4,608
  5,053
  5,518
  6,001
  6,505
  7,029
  7,574
  8,139
  8,728
  9,339
  9,974
  10,635
  11,322
  12,036
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  263
  342
  437
  547
  675
  820
  982
  1,162
  1,360
  1,575
  1,807
  2,056
  2,320
  2,601
  2,897
  3,208
  3,535
  3,876
  4,232
  4,603
  4,989
  5,391
  5,809
  6,243
  6,694
  7,163
  7,650
  8,157
  8,684
  9,232
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  261
  263
  342
  437
  547
  675
  820
  982
  1,162
  1,360
  1,575
  1,807
  2,056
  2,320
  2,601
  2,897
  3,208
  3,535
  3,876
  4,232
  4,603
  4,989
  5,391
  5,809
  6,243
  6,694
  7,163
  7,650
  8,157
  8,684
  9,232
Operating income, $m
  -2
  80
  104
  133
  166
  205
  249
  298
  353
  413
  478
  549
  624
  705
  790
  880
  975
  1,074
  1,177
  1,286
  1,398
  1,516
  1,638
  1,765
  1,896
  2,034
  2,176
  2,324
  2,478
  2,638
  2,804
EBITDA, $m
  59
  161
  210
  267
  335
  413
  502
  601
  712
  833
  964
  1,106
  1,259
  1,421
  1,593
  1,774
  1,964
  2,164
  2,373
  2,591
  2,818
  3,055
  3,301
  3,557
  3,822
  4,099
  4,386
  4,684
  4,994
  5,317
  5,652
Interest expense (income), $m
  34
  33
  46
  61
  80
  102
  127
  156
  188
  223
  262
  305
  351
  400
  452
  507
  566
  627
  692
  759
  829
  903
  979
  1,058
  1,141
  1,227
  1,316
  1,408
  1,504
  1,604
  1,708
Earnings before tax, $m
  -50
  47
  58
  71
  86
  103
  122
  143
  165
  190
  216
  244
  274
  305
  338
  373
  409
  446
  486
  527
  569
  613
  659
  706
  756
  807
  860
  916
  973
  1,034
  1,096
Tax expense, $m
  1
  13
  16
  19
  23
  28
  33
  39
  45
  51
  58
  66
  74
  82
  91
  101
  110
  121
  131
  142
  154
  166
  178
  191
  204
  218
  232
  247
  263
  279
  296
Net income, $m
  -51
  34
  43
  52
  63
  75
  89
  104
  121
  139
  158
  178
  200
  223
  247
  272
  298
  326
  355
  384
  415
  447
  481
  516
  552
  589
  628
  669
  711
  754
  800

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  664
  872
  1,135
  1,448
  1,816
  2,239
  2,719
  3,259
  3,856
  4,512
  5,226
  5,995
  6,820
  7,698
  8,629
  9,611
  10,644
  11,726
  12,858
  14,040
  15,271
  16,552
  17,885
  19,271
  20,711
  22,208
  23,763
  25,379
  27,060
  28,808
  30,627
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  656
  872
  1,135
  1,448
  1,816
  2,239
  2,719
  3,259
  3,856
  4,512
  5,226
  5,995
  6,820
  7,698
  8,629
  9,611
  10,644
  11,726
  12,858
  14,040
  15,271
  16,552
  17,885
  19,271
  20,711
  22,208
  23,763
  25,379
  27,060
  28,808
  30,627
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
Average production assets, $m
  647
  860
  1,119
  1,428
  1,789
  2,206
  2,680
  3,212
  3,801
  4,447
  5,151
  5,909
  6,722
  7,588
  8,505
  9,473
  10,491
  11,558
  12,674
  13,838
  15,052
  16,315
  17,629
  18,994
  20,414
  21,889
  23,422
  25,015
  26,672
  28,395
  30,187
Working capital, $m
  -40
  -34
  -45
  -57
  -71
  -88
  -107
  -128
  -152
  -177
  -205
  -236
  -268
  -303
  -339
  -378
  -418
  -461
  -505
  -552
  -600
  -651
  -703
  -757
  -814
  -873
  -934
  -997
  -1,063
  -1,132
  -1,204
Total debt, $m
  430
  593
  796
  1,039
  1,322
  1,649
  2,021
  2,438
  2,900
  3,407
  3,958
  4,553
  5,191
  5,870
  6,589
  7,349
  8,147
  8,984
  9,859
  10,772
  11,723
  12,714
  13,744
  14,816
  15,929
  17,085
  18,288
  19,537
  20,836
  22,188
  23,594
Total liabilities, $m
  510
  674
  877
  1,120
  1,403
  1,730
  2,102
  2,519
  2,981
  3,488
  4,039
  4,634
  5,272
  5,951
  6,670
  7,430
  8,228
  9,065
  9,940
  10,853
  11,804
  12,795
  13,825
  14,897
  16,010
  17,166
  18,369
  19,618
  20,917
  22,269
  23,675
Total equity, $m
  153
  198
  258
  329
  412
  508
  617
  740
  875
  1,024
  1,186
  1,361
  1,548
  1,747
  1,959
  2,182
  2,416
  2,662
  2,919
  3,187
  3,466
  3,757
  4,060
  4,375
  4,701
  5,041
  5,394
  5,761
  6,143
  6,539
  6,952
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  663
  872
  1,135
  1,449
  1,815
  2,238
  2,719
  3,259
  3,856
  4,512
  5,225
  5,995
  6,820
  7,698
  8,629
  9,612
  10,644
  11,727
  12,859
  14,040
  15,270
  16,552
  17,885
  19,272
  20,711
  22,207
  23,763
  25,379
  27,060
  28,808
  30,627
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.810
  3.000
  3.090
  3.160
  3.210
  3.250
  3.270
  3.300
  3.310
  3.330
  3.340
  3.350
  3.350
  3.360
  3.360
  3.370
  3.370
  3.370
  3.380
  3.380
  3.380
  3.380
  3.390
  3.390
  3.390
  3.390
  3.390
  3.390
  3.390
  3.390
  3.390
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.221
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227
  0.227

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -51
  34
  43
  52
  63
  75
  89
  104
  121
  139
  158
  178
  200
  223
  247
  272
  298
  326
  355
  384
  415
  447
  481
  516
  552
  589
  628
  669
  711
  754
  800
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  61
  81
  106
  135
  169
  208
  253
  303
  359
  420
  486
  557
  634
  716
  802
  894
  990
  1,090
  1,196
  1,305
  1,420
  1,539
  1,663
  1,792
  1,926
  2,065
  2,210
  2,360
  2,516
  2,679
  2,848
Funds from operations, $m
  40
  116
  148
  187
  232
  283
  342
  407
  479
  558
  644
  736
  834
  939
  1,049
  1,166
  1,288
  1,416
  1,550
  1,690
  1,835
  1,987
  2,144
  2,308
  2,477
  2,654
  2,838
  3,028
  3,227
  3,433
  3,648
Change in working capital, $m
  8
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -71
Cash from operations, $m
  32
  124
  158
  199
  246
  300
  361
  428
  503
  584
  672
  766
  866
  973
  1,086
  1,204
  1,329
  1,459
  1,595
  1,736
  1,884
  2,037
  2,196
  2,362
  2,534
  2,713
  2,899
  3,092
  3,293
  3,502
  3,719
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -61
  -81
  -106
  -135
  -169
  -208
  -253
  -303
  -359
  -420
  -486
  -557
  -634
  -716
  -802
  -894
  -990
  -1,090
  -1,196
  -1,305
  -1,420
  -1,539
  -1,663
  -1,792
  -1,926
  -2,065
  -2,210
  -2,360
  -2,516
  -2,679
New CAPEX, $m
  -7
  -213
  -259
  -309
  -362
  -417
  -474
  -531
  -589
  -647
  -703
  -759
  -813
  -866
  -917
  -968
  -1,018
  -1,067
  -1,116
  -1,164
  -1,213
  -1,263
  -1,314
  -1,366
  -1,419
  -1,475
  -1,533
  -1,593
  -1,657
  -1,723
  -1,793
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -7
  -274
  -340
  -415
  -497
  -586
  -682
  -784
  -892
  -1,006
  -1,123
  -1,245
  -1,370
  -1,500
  -1,633
  -1,770
  -1,912
  -2,057
  -2,206
  -2,360
  -2,518
  -2,683
  -2,853
  -3,029
  -3,211
  -3,401
  -3,598
  -3,803
  -4,017
  -4,239
  -4,472
Free cash flow, $m
  25
  -150
  -182
  -215
  -250
  -286
  -321
  -356
  -389
  -421
  -451
  -479
  -504
  -527
  -547
  -566
  -583
  -598
  -611
  -624
  -635
  -646
  -657
  -667
  -677
  -688
  -699
  -711
  -724
  -737
  -752
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  6
  167
  203
  242
  284
  327
  372
  417
  462
  507
  551
  595
  637
  679
  720
  759
  798
  837
  875
  913
  952
  991
  1,030
  1,071
  1,113
  1,157
  1,202
  1,250
  1,299
  1,351
  1,406
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  15
  17
  19
  20
  21
  20
  18
  15
  10
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -23
  182
  220
  261
  304
  348
  392
  435
  477
  517
  555
  595
  637
  679
  720
  759
  798
  837
  875
  913
  952
  991
  1,030
  1,071
  1,113
  1,157
  1,202
  1,250
  1,299
  1,351
  1,406
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2
  32
  39
  46
  54
  62
  70
  79
  88
  96
  105
  116
  134
  152
  172
  193
  215
  239
  264
  289
  316
  344
  374
  404
  436
  469
  503
  539
  576
  614
  654
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  84
  -49
  -60
  -71
  -83
  -96
  -109
  -122
  -136
  -149
  -162
  -175
  -187
  -199
  -211
  -223
  -234
  -246
  -257
  -268
  -279
  -291
  -303
  -315
  -327
  -340
  -353
  -367
  -382
  -397
  -413
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -13
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -34
  -39
  -43
  -48
  -53
  -57
  -58
  -54
  -47
  -39
  -30
  -19
  -7
  7
  21
  37
  54
  71
  90
  109
  129
  150
  172
  194
  217
  241
Discount rate, %
 
  11.70
  12.29
  12.90
  13.54
  14.22
  14.93
  15.68
  16.46
  17.29
  18.15
  19.06
  20.01
  21.01
  22.06
  23.17
  24.32
  25.54
  26.82
  28.16
  29.57
  31.04
  32.60
  34.23
  35.94
  37.73
  39.62
  41.60
  43.68
  45.87
  48.16
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -12
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -17
  -17
  -16
  -14
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -6
  -4
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.0
  96.3
  94.8
  93.6
  92.6
  91.9
  91.3
  91.0
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7
  90.7

OCI Partners LP produces and sells methanol and ammonia in the United States. The company offers its products to industrial users and commercial traders for further processing or distribution. OCI GP LLC operates as the general partner of the company. The company was founded in 2013 and is based in Nederland, Texas. OCI Partners LP is a subsidiary of OCIP Holding LLC.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  OCI Partners (OCIP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -14.2
Price to Sales 2.8
Price to Book 4.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 22.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 29.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -16.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -96.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -33.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 278.4%
Total Debt to Equity 281%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.5%
Return On Total Capital -8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Equity -26.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.8%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 41%
EBITDA Margin 17.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.8%
Operating Margin -1.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.9%
Pre-Tax Margin -19.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Net Profit Margin -19.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.9%
Effective Tax Rate -2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Payout Ratio -13.7%

OCIP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OCIP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $258 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by OCI Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of OCI Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OCIP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 32.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 11.7%, whose default value for OCIP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of OCI Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of OCI Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OCIP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 76.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OCIP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.7% for OCI Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for OCI Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OCIP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OCIP are equal to 250.8%.

Life of production assets of 10.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in OCI Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OCIP is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $153 million for OCI Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 88.343 million for OCI Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of OCI Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ OCI reports 2Q loss   [Aug-08-17 12:00AM  Associated Press]
▶ OCI posts 1Q profit   [May-08-17 08:30AM  Associated Press]
▶ OCI reports 4Q loss   [10:23AM  Associated Press]
▶ Longleaf Partners Small-Cap Fund Comments on OCI   [Feb-22-17 11:37AM  GuruFocus.com]
Stock chart of OCIP Financial statements of OCIP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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