Intrinsic value of Ocwen Financial - OCN

Previous Close

$3.23

  Intrinsic Value

$1.25

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-61%

Previous close

$3.23

 
Intrinsic value

$1.25

 
Up/down potential

-61%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as OCN.

We calculate the intrinsic value of OCN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -20.33
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,387
  1,415
  1,447
  1,484
  1,526
  1,573
  1,623
  1,679
  1,738
  1,803
  1,872
  1,946
  2,025
  2,109
  2,199
  2,293
  2,394
  2,500
  2,613
  2,732
  2,857
  2,990
  3,129
  3,276
  3,432
  3,595
  3,767
  3,948
  4,139
  4,339
  4,550
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,019
  1,042
  1,069
  1,099
  1,132
  1,169
  1,209
  1,252
  1,298
  1,348
  1,401
  1,458
  1,519
  1,583
  1,651
  1,724
  1,800
  1,881
  1,967
  2,057
  2,152
  2,253
  2,359
  2,471
  2,588
  2,712
  2,843
  2,980
  3,124
  3,276
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  236
  242
  248
  254
  260
  267
  273
  280
  287
  294
  302
  309
  317
  325
  333
  341
  350
  359
  368
  377
  386
  396
  406
  416
  426
  437
  448
  459
  471
  482
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,223
  1,255
  1,284
  1,317
  1,353
  1,392
  1,436
  1,482
  1,532
  1,585
  1,642
  1,703
  1,767
  1,836
  1,908
  1,984
  2,065
  2,150
  2,240
  2,335
  2,434
  2,538
  2,649
  2,765
  2,887
  3,014
  3,149
  3,291
  3,439
  3,595
  3,758
Operating income, $m
  164
  160
  164
  168
  173
  180
  188
  197
  207
  218
  230
  243
  258
  274
  291
  309
  329
  350
  373
  397
  423
  451
  480
  512
  545
  580
  618
  657
  700
  744
  791
EBITDA, $m
  222
  220
  224
  230
  237
  246
  256
  267
  279
  293
  308
  325
  343
  362
  383
  405
  429
  455
  482
  512
  543
  576
  611
  649
  689
  731
  776
  823
  873
  926
  982
Interest expense (income), $m
  390
  404
  392
  402
  413
  426
  441
  456
  473
  492
  512
  533
  556
  580
  606
  633
  663
  694
  726
  761
  798
  836
  877
  920
  965
  1,013
  1,064
  1,117
  1,172
  1,231
  1,293
Earnings before tax, $m
  -206
  -244
  -228
  -234
  -240
  -246
  -253
  -260
  -267
  -274
  -282
  -290
  -298
  -306
  -315
  -324
  -334
  -343
  -354
  -364
  -375
  -386
  -397
  -409
  -421
  -433
  -446
  -459
  -473
  -487
  -501
Tax expense, $m
  -7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -200
  -244
  -228
  -234
  -240
  -246
  -253
  -260
  -267
  -274
  -282
  -290
  -298
  -306
  -315
  -324
  -334
  -343
  -354
  -364
  -375
  -386
  -397
  -409
  -421
  -433
  -446
  -459
  -473
  -487
  -501

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  257
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,656
  7,565
  7,739
  7,938
  8,162
  8,409
  8,681
  8,976
  9,296
  9,641
  10,011
  10,407
  10,829
  11,279
  11,757
  12,264
  12,801
  13,370
  13,972
  14,608
  15,279
  15,987
  16,734
  17,521
  18,351
  19,224
  20,144
  21,112
  22,131
  23,203
  24,330
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,399
  7,565
  7,739
  7,938
  8,162
  8,409
  8,681
  8,976
  9,296
  9,641
  10,011
  10,407
  10,829
  11,279
  11,757
  12,264
  12,801
  13,370
  13,972
  14,608
  15,279
  15,987
  16,734
  17,521
  18,351
  19,224
  20,144
  21,112
  22,131
  23,203
  24,330
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
  0.187
Average production assets, $m
  1,127
  1,150
  1,177
  1,207
  1,241
  1,278
  1,320
  1,365
  1,413
  1,466
  1,522
  1,582
  1,646
  1,715
  1,787
  1,865
  1,946
  2,033
  2,124
  2,221
  2,323
  2,431
  2,544
  2,664
  2,790
  2,923
  3,063
  3,210
  3,365
  3,528
  3,699
Working capital, $m
  0
  -262
  -268
  -275
  -282
  -291
  -300
  -311
  -322
  -334
  -346
  -360
  -375
  -390
  -407
  -424
  -443
  -463
  -483
  -505
  -529
  -553
  -579
  -606
  -635
  -665
  -697
  -730
  -766
  -803
  -842
Total debt, $m
  6,319
  6,125
  6,282
  6,461
  6,662
  6,884
  7,129
  7,395
  7,683
  7,993
  8,326
  8,682
  9,062
  9,467
  9,897
  10,354
  10,837
  11,349
  11,891
  12,463
  13,067
  13,704
  14,377
  15,085
  15,832
  16,618
  17,446
  18,317
  19,234
  20,199
  21,213
Total liabilities, $m
  7,003
  6,809
  6,966
  7,145
  7,346
  7,568
  7,813
  8,079
  8,367
  8,677
  9,010
  9,366
  9,746
  10,151
  10,581
  11,038
  11,521
  12,033
  12,575
  13,147
  13,751
  14,388
  15,061
  15,769
  16,516
  17,302
  18,130
  19,001
  19,918
  20,883
  21,897
Total equity, $m
  653
  757
  774
  794
  816
  841
  868
  898
  930
  964
  1,001
  1,041
  1,083
  1,128
  1,176
  1,226
  1,280
  1,337
  1,397
  1,461
  1,528
  1,599
  1,673
  1,752
  1,835
  1,922
  2,014
  2,111
  2,213
  2,320
  2,433
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,656
  7,566
  7,740
  7,939
  8,162
  8,409
  8,681
  8,977
  9,297
  9,641
  10,011
  10,407
  10,829
  11,279
  11,757
  12,264
  12,801
  13,370
  13,972
  14,608
  15,279
  15,987
  16,734
  17,521
  18,351
  19,224
  20,144
  21,112
  22,131
  23,203
  24,330
Debt-to-equity ratio
  9.677
  8.100
  8.120
  8.140
  8.160
  8.190
  8.210
  8.240
  8.260
  8.290
  8.320
  8.340
  8.370
  8.390
  8.420
  8.440
  8.470
  8.490
  8.510
  8.530
  8.550
  8.570
  8.590
  8.610
  8.630
  8.640
  8.660
  8.680
  8.690
  8.710
  8.720
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.054
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -200
  -244
  -228
  -234
  -240
  -246
  -253
  -260
  -267
  -274
  -282
  -290
  -298
  -306
  -315
  -324
  -334
  -343
  -354
  -364
  -375
  -386
  -397
  -409
  -421
  -433
  -446
  -459
  -473
  -487
  -501
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  73
  76
  78
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  182
  191
Funds from operations, $m
  1,076
  -185
  -168
  -172
  -176
  -180
  -185
  -189
  -194
  -199
  -203
  -208
  -213
  -218
  -223
  -228
  -233
  -239
  -244
  -249
  -255
  -260
  -266
  -271
  -277
  -282
  -288
  -294
  -299
  -305
  -311
Change in working capital, $m
  601
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
Cash from operations, $m
  475
  -180
  -162
  -165
  -168
  -172
  -175
  -179
  -183
  -187
  -191
  -194
  -198
  -203
  -207
  -211
  -215
  -219
  -223
  -227
  -232
  -236
  -240
  -244
  -248
  -252
  -256
  -260
  -264
  -268
  -272
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -58
  -59
  -61
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -182
New CAPEX, $m
  -51
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -171
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -792
  -81
  -85
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -138
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -186
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -228
  -239
  -251
  -263
  -277
  -291
  -305
  -320
  -336
  -353
Free cash flow, $m
  -317
  -261
  -247
  -256
  -264
  -273
  -283
  -292
  -302
  -312
  -322
  -333
  -344
  -356
  -368
  -380
  -393
  -406
  -419
  -434
  -448
  -463
  -479
  -495
  -512
  -529
  -547
  -565
  -584
  -604
  -625
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  333
  -194
  157
  179
  201
  223
  244
  266
  288
  310
  333
  356
  380
  405
  430
  456
  484
  512
  541
  572
  604
  637
  672
  709
  747
  786
  828
  871
  917
  965
  1,015
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -6
  605
  246
  254
  262
  271
  280
  289
  299
  309
  319
  329
  340
  351
  363
  375
  388
  400
  414
  427
  442
  456
  472
  487
  504
  520
  538
  556
  575
  594
  614
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  316
  411
  403
  433
  463
  494
  524
  555
  587
  619
  652
  685
  720
  756
  793
  831
  872
  912
  955
  999
  1,046
  1,093
  1,144
  1,196
  1,251
  1,306
  1,366
  1,427
  1,492
  1,559
  1,629
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  150
  155
  177
  199
  220
  242
  263
  285
  307
  329
  352
  376
  400
  426
  452
  479
  507
  536
  566
  598
  631
  665
  701
  739
  778
  819
  862
  907
  954
  1,004
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  199
  -605
  -246
  -254
  -262
  -271
  -280
  -289
  -299
  -309
  -319
  -329
  -340
  -351
  -363
  -375
  -388
  -400
  -414
  -427
  -442
  -456
  -472
  -487
  -504
  -520
  -538
  -556
  -575
  -594
  -614
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  257
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -198
  -91
  -77
  -64
  -51
  -38
  -26
  -14
  -2
  11
  23
  36
  49
  62
  76
  91
  106
  122
  139
  156
  174
  193
  214
  235
  257
  281
  306
  333
  360
  390
Discount rate, %
 
  14.20
  14.91
  15.66
  16.44
  17.26
  18.12
  19.03
  19.98
  20.98
  22.03
  23.13
  24.29
  25.50
  26.78
  28.12
  29.52
  31.00
  32.55
  34.17
  35.88
  37.68
  39.56
  41.54
  43.62
  45.80
  48.09
  50.49
  53.02
  55.67
  58.45
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -173
  -69
  -50
  -35
  -23
  -14
  -8
  -3
  0
  1
  2
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  31.4
  21.5
  14.6
  9.9
  6.7
  4.6
  3.1
  2.1
  1.4
  1.0
  0.7
  0.4
  0.3
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Ocwen Financial Corporation is a financial services holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, originates and services loans. The Company's segments include Servicing, Lending, and Corporate Items and Other. The Company's Servicing segment consists of its residential servicing business. The Company's Lending segment is focused on originating and purchasing conventional and government-insured residential forward and reverse mortgage loans. The Company's Corporate Items and Other segment includes revenues and expenses of Automotive Capital Services (ACS) and its other business activities. Its servicing clients include some of the financial institutions in the United States, including the Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac), the Government National Mortgage Association (Ginnie Mae) and non-Agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) trusts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ocwen Financial (OCN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 0.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -20.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -57.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 967.7%
Total Debt to Equity 967.7%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Total Capital -2.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.3%
Return On Equity -26.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -28.3%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 79.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 83.5%
EBITDA Margin 17.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.7%
Operating Margin 11.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -14.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.4%
Net Profit Margin -14.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -17%
Effective Tax Rate 3.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -30.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

OCN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OCN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1387 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ocwen Financial. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ocwen Financial. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OCN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.2%, whose default value for OCN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ocwen Financial, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ocwen Financial.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OCN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 72%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $230 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OCN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.4% for Ocwen Financial.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ocwen Financial. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OCN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OCN are equal to 81.3%.

Life of production assets of 19.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ocwen Financial operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OCN is equal to -18.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $653 million for Ocwen Financial - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 130.859 million for Ocwen Financial is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ocwen Financial at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Ocwen Sees Losses Narrow   [09:13AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ocwen reports 3Q loss   [Nov-02-17 06:44AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ocwen Engages Christopher Whalen as Senior Consultant   [Oct-04-17 04:20PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Ocwen reports 2Q loss   [Aug-02-17 09:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ocwen Keeps Clawing Its Way Back   [01:30PM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Awful Stocks for Retirees   [Jul-08-17 02:30PM  Motley Fool]
▶ These 3 Stocks Have Lost Half Their Value So Far in 2017   [Jun-26-17 09:56AM  Motley Fool]
Financial statements of OCN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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