Intrinsic value of Ocwen Financial - OCN

Previous Close

$2.79

  Intrinsic Value

$1.32

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-53%

  Value-price divergence*

-123%

Previous close

$2.79

 
Intrinsic value

$1.32

 
Up/down potential

-53%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-123%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as OCN.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of OCN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -20.33
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,387
  1,415
  1,447
  1,484
  1,526
  1,573
  1,623
  1,679
  1,738
  1,803
  1,872
  1,946
  2,025
  2,109
  2,199
  2,293
  2,394
  2,500
  2,613
  2,732
  2,857
  2,990
  3,129
  3,276
  3,432
  3,595
  3,767
  3,948
  4,139
  4,339
  4,550
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,019
  1,042
  1,069
  1,099
  1,132
  1,169
  1,209
  1,252
  1,298
  1,348
  1,401
  1,458
  1,519
  1,583
  1,651
  1,724
  1,800
  1,881
  1,967
  2,057
  2,152
  2,253
  2,359
  2,471
  2,588
  2,712
  2,843
  2,980
  3,124
  3,276
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  236
  242
  248
  254
  260
  267
  273
  280
  287
  294
  302
  309
  317
  325
  333
  341
  350
  359
  368
  377
  386
  396
  406
  416
  426
  437
  448
  459
  471
  482
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,223
  1,255
  1,284
  1,317
  1,353
  1,392
  1,436
  1,482
  1,532
  1,585
  1,642
  1,703
  1,767
  1,836
  1,908
  1,984
  2,065
  2,150
  2,240
  2,335
  2,434
  2,538
  2,649
  2,765
  2,887
  3,014
  3,149
  3,291
  3,439
  3,595
  3,758
Operating income, $m
  164
  160
  164
  168
  173
  180
  188
  197
  207
  218
  230
  243
  258
  274
  291
  309
  329
  350
  373
  397
  423
  451
  480
  512
  545
  580
  618
  657
  700
  744
  791
EBITDA, $m
  222
  220
  224
  230
  237
  246
  256
  267
  279
  293
  308
  325
  343
  362
  383
  405
  429
  455
  482
  512
  543
  576
  611
  649
  689
  731
  776
  823
  873
  926
  982
Interest expense (income), $m
  390
  404
  406
  417
  429
  442
  457
  473
  490
  509
  530
  552
  576
  601
  627
  656
  686
  718
  752
  788
  826
  865
  908
  952
  999
  1,048
  1,100
  1,155
  1,213
  1,273
  1,337
Earnings before tax, $m
  -206
  -244
  -243
  -249
  -255
  -262
  -269
  -276
  -284
  -292
  -300
  -309
  -318
  -327
  -337
  -347
  -357
  -368
  -379
  -391
  -402
  -415
  -427
  -441
  -454
  -468
  -483
  -498
  -513
  -529
  -546
Tax expense, $m
  -7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -200
  -244
  -243
  -249
  -255
  -262
  -269
  -276
  -284
  -292
  -300
  -309
  -318
  -327
  -337
  -347
  -357
  -368
  -379
  -391
  -402
  -415
  -427
  -441
  -454
  -468
  -483
  -498
  -513
  -529
  -546

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  257
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  7,656
  7,816
  7,996
  8,202
  8,432
  8,688
  8,968
  9,274
  9,604
  9,961
  10,343
  10,752
  11,188
  11,653
  12,147
  12,671
  13,226
  13,814
  14,435
  15,092
  15,785
  16,517
  17,289
  18,102
  18,959
  19,862
  20,812
  21,812
  22,865
  23,972
  25,137
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7,399
  7,816
  7,996
  8,202
  8,432
  8,688
  8,968
  9,274
  9,604
  9,961
  10,343
  10,752
  11,188
  11,653
  12,147
  12,671
  13,226
  13,814
  14,435
  15,092
  15,785
  16,517
  17,289
  18,102
  18,959
  19,862
  20,812
  21,812
  22,865
  23,972
  25,137
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.187
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
  0.181
Average production assets, $m
  1,127
  1,150
  1,177
  1,207
  1,241
  1,278
  1,320
  1,365
  1,413
  1,466
  1,522
  1,582
  1,646
  1,715
  1,787
  1,865
  1,946
  2,033
  2,124
  2,221
  2,323
  2,431
  2,544
  2,664
  2,790
  2,923
  3,063
  3,210
  3,365
  3,528
  3,699
Working capital, $m
  0
  -141
  -145
  -148
  -153
  -157
  -162
  -168
  -174
  -180
  -187
  -195
  -203
  -211
  -220
  -229
  -239
  -250
  -261
  -273
  -286
  -299
  -313
  -328
  -343
  -359
  -377
  -395
  -414
  -434
  -455
Total debt, $m
  6,319
  6,351
  6,512
  6,697
  6,905
  7,135
  7,388
  7,662
  7,960
  8,281
  8,625
  8,993
  9,385
  9,804
  10,248
  10,719
  11,219
  11,748
  12,308
  12,899
  13,523
  14,181
  14,876
  15,608
  16,379
  17,191
  18,047
  18,947
  19,894
  20,891
  21,939
Total liabilities, $m
  7,003
  7,035
  7,196
  7,381
  7,589
  7,819
  8,072
  8,346
  8,644
  8,965
  9,309
  9,677
  10,069
  10,488
  10,932
  11,403
  11,903
  12,432
  12,992
  13,583
  14,207
  14,865
  15,560
  16,292
  17,063
  17,875
  18,731
  19,631
  20,578
  21,575
  22,623
Total equity, $m
  653
  782
  800
  820
  843
  869
  897
  927
  960
  996
  1,034
  1,075
  1,119
  1,165
  1,215
  1,267
  1,323
  1,381
  1,444
  1,509
  1,579
  1,652
  1,729
  1,810
  1,896
  1,986
  2,081
  2,181
  2,286
  2,397
  2,514
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  7,656
  7,817
  7,996
  8,201
  8,432
  8,688
  8,969
  9,273
  9,604
  9,961
  10,343
  10,752
  11,188
  11,653
  12,147
  12,670
  13,226
  13,813
  14,436
  15,092
  15,786
  16,517
  17,289
  18,102
  18,959
  19,861
  20,812
  21,812
  22,864
  23,972
  25,137
Debt-to-equity ratio
  9.677
  8.120
  8.140
  8.170
  8.190
  8.210
  8.240
  8.260
  8.290
  8.310
  8.340
  8.360
  8.390
  8.410
  8.440
  8.460
  8.480
  8.500
  8.530
  8.550
  8.570
  8.590
  8.600
  8.620
  8.640
  8.660
  8.670
  8.690
  8.700
  8.710
  8.730
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.054
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -200
  -244
  -243
  -249
  -255
  -262
  -269
  -276
  -284
  -292
  -300
  -309
  -318
  -327
  -337
  -347
  -357
  -368
  -379
  -391
  -402
  -415
  -427
  -441
  -454
  -468
  -483
  -498
  -513
  -529
  -546
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  58
  59
  61
  62
  64
  66
  68
  70
  73
  76
  78
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  137
  144
  151
  158
  165
  173
  182
  191
Funds from operations, $m
  1,072
  -185
  -182
  -187
  -191
  -196
  -201
  -206
  -211
  -216
  -222
  -227
  -233
  -239
  -245
  -251
  -257
  -263
  -270
  -276
  -283
  -289
  -296
  -303
  -310
  -317
  -325
  -332
  -340
  -347
  -355
Change in working capital, $m
  597
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
Cash from operations, $m
  475
  -182
  -179
  -183
  -187
  -191
  -196
  -200
  -205
  -210
  -215
  -220
  -225
  -230
  -236
  -241
  -247
  -253
  -258
  -264
  -270
  -276
  -282
  -288
  -295
  -301
  -308
  -314
  -321
  -327
  -334
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -58
  -59
  -61
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -78
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -182
New CAPEX, $m
  -51
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -49
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -68
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -155
  -163
  -171
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -792
  -81
  -85
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -132
  -138
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -186
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -228
  -239
  -251
  -263
  -277
  -291
  -305
  -320
  -336
  -353
Free cash flow, $m
  -317
  -263
  -265
  -274
  -283
  -293
  -303
  -313
  -324
  -335
  -347
  -359
  -371
  -384
  -397
  -410
  -425
  -439
  -455
  -470
  -487
  -504
  -521
  -539
  -558
  -578
  -598
  -619
  -641
  -664
  -687
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  333
  32
  162
  185
  208
  230
  252
  275
  298
  321
  344
  368
  393
  418
  444
  472
  500
  529
  559
  591
  624
  659
  694
  732
  771
  812
  855
  900
  947
  997
  1,048
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -6
  373
  261
  269
  278
  287
  297
  307
  317
  327
  338
  350
  361
  374
  386
  399
  413
  427
  441
  456
  472
  488
  505
  522
  540
  558
  578
  598
  618
  640
  662
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  316
  405
  423
  454
  486
  517
  549
  582
  615
  648
  682
  718
  754
  792
  830
  871
  913
  956
  1,000
  1,047
  1,096
  1,147
  1,199
  1,254
  1,311
  1,370
  1,433
  1,498
  1,565
  1,637
  1,710
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  141
  158
  181
  203
  225
  246
  268
  290
  313
  336
  359
  383
  408
  434
  460
  488
  516
  546
  577
  609
  643
  678
  715
  753
  793
  835
  879
  925
  973
  1,023
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  199
  -373
  -261
  -269
  -278
  -287
  -297
  -307
  -317
  -327
  -338
  -350
  -361
  -374
  -386
  -399
  -413
  -427
  -441
  -456
  -472
  -488
  -505
  -522
  -540
  -558
  -578
  -598
  -618
  -640
  -662
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -232
  -103
  -89
  -76
  -63
  -50
  -38
  -26
  -15
  -3
  10
  22
  35
  48
  61
  75
  90
  105
  121
  137
  155
  173
  193
  213
  235
  257
  281
  306
  333
  361
Discount rate, %
 
  14.20
  14.91
  15.66
  16.44
  17.26
  18.12
  19.03
  19.98
  20.98
  22.03
  23.13
  24.29
  25.50
  26.78
  28.12
  29.52
  31.00
  32.55
  34.17
  35.88
  37.68
  39.56
  41.54
  43.62
  45.80
  48.09
  50.49
  53.02
  55.67
  58.45
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -203
  -78
  -57
  -41
  -28
  -19
  -11
  -6
  -3
  0
  1
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  55.1
  37.3
  25.2
  17.0
  11.4
  7.7
  5.1
  3.5
  2.3
  1.6
  1.1
  0.7
  0.5
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Ocwen Financial Corporation, a financial services holding company, engages in the servicing and origination of mortgage loans in the United States. Its Servicing segment provides residential and commercial mortgage loan servicing, special servicing, and asset management services to owners of mortgage loans and foreclosed real estate. This segment’s residential servicing portfolio includes conventional, government insured, and non-agency loans. The company’s Lending segment originates and purchases conventional and government-insured residential forward and reverse mortgage loans primarily through its correspondent lending arrangements, broker relationships, and directly with mortgage customers. The company also provides short-term inventory-secured loans to independent used car dealers to finance their inventory. Ocwen Financial Corporation was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in West Palm Beach, Florida.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ocwen Financial (OCN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.7
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 0.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 0.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 0.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -20.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -57.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 967.7%
Total Debt to Equity 967.7%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Total Capital -2.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -4.3%
Return On Equity -26.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -28.3%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 79.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 83.5%
EBITDA Margin 17.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.7%
Operating Margin 11.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -14.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.4%
Net Profit Margin -14.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -17%
Effective Tax Rate 3.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -30.9%
Payout Ratio 0%

OCN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OCN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1387 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ocwen Financial. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ocwen Financial. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OCN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.2%, whose default value for OCN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ocwen Financial, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ocwen Financial.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OCN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 72%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $230 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OCN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.4% for Ocwen Financial.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ocwen Financial. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OCN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OCN are equal to 81.3%.

Life of production assets of 19.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ocwen Financial operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OCN is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $653 million for Ocwen Financial - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 123.987 million for Ocwen Financial is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ocwen Financial at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Ocwen reports 2Q loss   [Aug-02-17 09:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ocwen Keeps Clawing Its Way Back   [01:30PM  Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Awful Stocks for Retirees   [Jul-08-17 02:30PM  Motley Fool]
▶ These 3 Stocks Have Lost Half Their Value So Far in 2017   [Jun-26-17 09:56AM  Motley Fool]
Stock chart of OCN Financial statements of OCN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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