Intrinsic value of Ocular Therapeutix - OCUL

Previous Close

$4.91

  Intrinsic Value

$0.44

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-91%

Previous close

$4.91

 
Intrinsic value

$0.44

 
Up/down potential

-91%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of OCUL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.00
  60.00
  54.50
  49.55
  45.10
  41.09
  37.48
  34.23
  31.31
  28.68
  26.31
  24.18
  22.26
  20.53
  18.98
  17.58
  16.32
  15.19
  14.17
  13.26
  12.43
  11.69
  11.02
  10.42
  9.87
  9.39
  8.95
  8.55
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
Revenue, $m
  2
  3
  5
  7
  11
  15
  21
  28
  37
  47
  60
  74
  90
  109
  130
  153
  178
  204
  233
  264
  297
  332
  369
  407
  447
  489
  533
  578
  626
  675
  726
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  64
  99
  148
  215
  303
  416
  559
  733
  944
  1,192
  1,480
  1,810
  2,181
  2,596
  3,052
  3,550
  4,089
  4,669
  5,288
  5,945
  6,640
  7,372
  8,139
  8,943
  9,783
  10,658
  11,570
  12,518
  13,504
  14,529
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  45
  64
  99
  148
  215
  303
  416
  559
  733
  944
  1,192
  1,480
  1,810
  2,181
  2,596
  3,052
  3,550
  4,089
  4,669
  5,288
  5,945
  6,640
  7,372
  8,139
  8,943
  9,783
  10,658
  11,570
  12,518
  13,504
  14,529
Operating income, $m
  -43
  -61
  -94
  -140
  -204
  -288
  -395
  -531
  -697
  -897
  -1,133
  -1,406
  -1,719
  -2,072
  -2,466
  -2,899
  -3,373
  -3,885
  -4,436
  -5,023
  -5,648
  -6,308
  -7,003
  -7,732
  -8,496
  -9,293
  -10,125
  -10,991
  -11,892
  -12,829
  -13,803
EBITDA, $m
  -42
  -60
  -92
  -138
  -201
  -283
  -389
  -522
  -686
  -882
  -1,115
  -1,384
  -1,692
  -2,040
  -2,427
  -2,854
  -3,319
  -3,824
  -4,365
  -4,944
  -5,559
  -6,208
  -6,892
  -7,610
  -8,362
  -9,147
  -9,965
  -10,818
  -11,704
  -12,627
  -13,585
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  1
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  9
  12
  15
  18
  22
  26
  31
  36
  41
  47
  54
  60
  67
  75
  83
  91
  100
  109
  118
  128
  138
Earnings before tax, $m
  -45
  -62
  -94
  -141
  -205
  -289
  -398
  -534
  -702
  -904
  -1,142
  -1,418
  -1,734
  -2,090
  -2,488
  -2,925
  -3,403
  -3,921
  -4,477
  -5,071
  -5,701
  -6,368
  -7,070
  -7,807
  -8,579
  -9,384
  -10,225
  -11,100
  -12,010
  -12,957
  -13,941
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -45
  -62
  -94
  -141
  -205
  -289
  -398
  -534
  -702
  -904
  -1,142
  -1,418
  -1,734
  -2,090
  -2,488
  -2,925
  -3,403
  -3,921
  -4,477
  -5,071
  -5,701
  -6,368
  -7,070
  -7,807
  -8,579
  -9,384
  -10,225
  -11,100
  -12,010
  -12,957
  -13,941

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  68
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  75
  11
  17
  26
  38
  53
  73
  98
  128
  165
  208
  259
  316
  381
  454
  534
  621
  715
  816
  924
  1,039
  1,161
  1,289
  1,423
  1,563
  1,710
  1,863
  2,023
  2,188
  2,361
  2,540
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  7
  11
  17
  26
  38
  53
  73
  98
  128
  165
  208
  259
  316
  381
  454
  534
  621
  715
  816
  924
  1,039
  1,161
  1,289
  1,423
  1,563
  1,710
  1,863
  2,023
  2,188
  2,361
  2,540
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.286
  0.273
  0.294
  0.269
  0.289
  0.283
  0.288
  0.286
  0.289
  0.285
  0.288
  0.286
  0.285
  0.286
  0.286
  0.287
  0.287
  0.285
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
  0.286
Average production assets, $m
  3
  5
  7
  11
  16
  23
  31
  42
  55
  71
  89
  111
  136
  164
  195
  229
  266
  307
  350
  397
  446
  498
  553
  610
  671
  734
  799
  868
  939
  1,013
  1,090
Working capital, $m
  62
  -6
  -10
  -15
  -21
  -30
  -42
  -56
  -73
  -94
  -119
  -148
  -181
  -218
  -260
  -305
  -355
  -409
  -467
  -529
  -595
  -664
  -737
  -814
  -894
  -978
  -1,066
  -1,157
  -1,252
  -1,350
  -1,453
Total debt, $m
  16
  3
  9
  16
  27
  41
  58
  81
  108
  142
  181
  226
  278
  336
  401
  473
  552
  636
  728
  825
  928
  1,038
  1,153
  1,274
  1,400
  1,532
  1,670
  1,813
  1,963
  2,118
  2,279
Total liabilities, $m
  23
  10
  16
  23
  34
  48
  65
  88
  115
  149
  188
  233
  285
  343
  408
  480
  559
  643
  735
  832
  935
  1,045
  1,160
  1,281
  1,407
  1,539
  1,677
  1,820
  1,970
  2,125
  2,286
Total equity, $m
  52
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  10
  13
  17
  21
  26
  32
  38
  45
  53
  62
  71
  82
  92
  104
  116
  129
  142
  156
  171
  186
  202
  219
  236
  254
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  75
  11
  18
  26
  38
  53
  72
  98
  128
  166
  209
  259
  317
  381
  453
  533
  621
  714
  817
  924
  1,039
  1,161
  1,289
  1,423
  1,563
  1,710
  1,863
  2,022
  2,189
  2,361
  2,540
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.308
  2.740
  4.950
  6.290
  7.130
  7.680
  8.040
  8.280
  8.450
  8.580
  8.660
  8.730
  8.780
  8.820
  8.850
  8.870
  8.890
  8.900
  8.910
  8.920
  8.930
  8.940
  8.950
  8.950
  8.960
  8.960
  8.960
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
  8.970
Adjusted equity ratio
  -2.286
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -45
  -62
  -94
  -141
  -205
  -289
  -398
  -534
  -702
  -904
  -1,142
  -1,418
  -1,734
  -2,090
  -2,488
  -2,925
  -3,403
  -3,921
  -4,477
  -5,071
  -5,701
  -6,368
  -7,070
  -7,807
  -8,579
  -9,384
  -10,225
  -11,100
  -12,010
  -12,957
  -13,941
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  1
  1
  2
  3
  5
  6
  8
  11
  14
  18
  22
  27
  33
  39
  46
  53
  61
  70
  79
  89
  100
  111
  122
  134
  147
  160
  174
  188
  203
  218
Funds from operations, $m
  -32
  -61
  -93
  -139
  -202
  -285
  -392
  -526
  -691
  -890
  -1,124
  -1,396
  -1,707
  -2,058
  -2,449
  -2,880
  -3,350
  -3,859
  -4,407
  -4,991
  -5,612
  -6,269
  -6,960
  -7,685
  -8,445
  -9,238
  -10,065
  -10,926
  -11,822
  -12,754
  -13,723
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  -2
  -3
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -33
  -37
  -41
  -46
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -99
  -103
Cash from operations, $m
  -34
  -58
  -89
  -134
  -195
  -276
  -380
  -512
  -674
  -868
  -1,099
  -1,367
  -1,674
  -2,021
  -2,407
  -2,834
  -3,300
  -3,806
  -4,349
  -4,930
  -5,547
  -6,199
  -6,887
  -7,608
  -8,364
  -9,154
  -9,977
  -10,835
  -11,727
  -12,655
  -13,620
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -8
  -11
  -14
  -18
  -22
  -27
  -33
  -39
  -46
  -53
  -61
  -70
  -79
  -89
  -100
  -111
  -122
  -134
  -147
  -160
  -174
  -188
  -203
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -9
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
Cash from investing activities, $m
  36
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -10
  -14
  -17
  -21
  -27
  -33
  -40
  -47
  -55
  -64
  -73
  -83
  -93
  -104
  -116
  -128
  -141
  -155
  -169
  -182
  -197
  -213
  -228
  -245
  -262
  -280
Free cash flow, $m
  2
  -61
  -93
  -139
  -202
  -286
  -393
  -529
  -695
  -895
  -1,132
  -1,407
  -1,721
  -2,076
  -2,471
  -2,907
  -3,383
  -3,899
  -4,454
  -5,046
  -5,675
  -6,340
  -7,041
  -7,777
  -8,547
  -9,351
  -10,190
  -11,063
  -11,972
  -12,917
  -13,900
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -11
  5
  8
  10
  14
  18
  22
  28
  33
  39
  45
  52
  58
  65
  72
  78
  85
  91
  97
  103
  109
  115
  121
  126
  132
  138
  143
  149
  155
  161
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  77
  95
  142
  206
  291
  400
  537
  705
  907
  1,146
  1,423
  1,740
  2,097
  2,495
  2,933
  3,412
  3,930
  4,487
  5,082
  5,713
  6,380
  7,083
  7,821
  8,593
  9,399
  10,240
  11,116
  12,027
  12,974
  13,958
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1
  66
  100
  150
  216
  305
  418
  559
  733
  940
  1,185
  1,468
  1,792
  2,155
  2,560
  3,005
  3,490
  4,015
  4,578
  5,179
  5,816
  6,489
  7,198
  7,942
  8,719
  9,531
  10,378
  11,259
  12,176
  13,129
  14,119
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  2
  5
  7
  11
  14
  19
  24
  31
  38
  45
  53
  62
  71
  80
  89
  98
  107
  116
  125
  133
  141
  149
  157
  165
  173
  180
  188
  196
  204
  212
  220
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  38
  -77
  -95
  -142
  -206
  -291
  -400
  -537
  -705
  -907
  -1,146
  -1,423
  -1,740
  -2,097
  -2,495
  -2,933
  -3,412
  -3,930
  -4,487
  -5,082
  -5,713
  -6,380
  -7,083
  -7,821
  -8,593
  -9,399
  -10,240
  -11,116
  -12,027
  -12,974
  -13,958
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  66
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -6
  -87
  -131
  -192
  -272
  -376
  -506
  -668
  -862
  -1,093
  -1,361
  -1,669
  -2,017
  -2,406
  -2,835
  -3,305
  -3,814
  -4,363
  -4,949
  -5,572
  -6,231
  -6,926
  -7,656
  -8,420
  -9,219
  -10,052
  -10,920
  -11,823
  -12,762
  -13,738
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -5
  -80
  -114
  -158
  -211
  -273
  -342
  -417
  -495
  -573
  -646
  -712
  -767
  -808
  -832
  -840
  -830
  -803
  -762
  -708
  -645
  -575
  -502
  -429
  -359
  -293
  -234
  -183
  -139
  -103
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  1.6
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the development, manufacturing and commercialization of therapies for diseases and conditions of the eye using its proprietary hydrogel platform technology. Its lead product candidate, DEXTENZA (dexamethasone insert) for intracanalicular use, has completed Phase III clinical development for the treatment of ocular pain and inflammation following ophthalmic surgery. OTX-TP (travoprost insert) is in Phase III clinical development for glaucoma and ocular hypertension. Its earlier stage assets include OTX-TIC, a sustained release travoprost intracameral injection for the treatment of moderate to severe glaucoma and ocular hypertension, as well as sustained release intravitreal injections for the treatment of retinal diseases. These injections include the development of OTX-TKI, a tyrosine kinase inhibitor, and, in collaboration with Regeneron an extended release protein-based anti-vascular endothelial growth factor trap.


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FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ocular Therapeutix (OCUL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -2.7
Price to Sales 61.4
Price to Book 2.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -3.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 34
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 26.9%
Total Debt to Equity 30.8%
Interest Coverage -44
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -47.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -48.9%
Return On Total Capital -52%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -53.5%
Return On Equity -63.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -65.1%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 50%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 66.7%
EBITDA Margin -2150%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2250%
Operating Margin -2150%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2250%
Pre-Tax Margin -2250%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2383.3%
Net Profit Margin -2250%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2383.3%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

OCUL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OCUL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ocular Therapeutix. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ocular Therapeutix. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OCUL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 60% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for OCUL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ocular Therapeutix, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ocular Therapeutix.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OCUL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 2000%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OCUL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.5% for Ocular Therapeutix.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ocular Therapeutix. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OCUL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OCUL are equal to 150%.

Life of production assets of 3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ocular Therapeutix operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OCUL is equal to -200%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $52 million for Ocular Therapeutix - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 29.319 million for Ocular Therapeutix is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ocular Therapeutix at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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REGN Regeneron Phar 332.15 269.74  sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Benzinga Pro's 4 Stocks To Watch Today   [Jan-25-18 09:11AM  Benzinga]
▶ Ocular Therapeutix Provides Legal Update   [04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Is It Too Late To Buy Ocular Therapeutix Inc (NASDAQ:OCUL)?   [Dec-13-17 04:54PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Ocular Therapeutix reports 3Q loss   [Nov-07-17 05:25PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ocular Therapeutix reports 2Q loss   [07:05PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of OCUL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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