Intrinsic value of Old Dominion Freight Line - ODFL

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$95.74

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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$95.74

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ODFL stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 7.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.67
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,992
  3,052
  3,122
  3,202
  3,292
  3,392
  3,502
  3,621
  3,750
  3,889
  4,038
  4,198
  4,368
  4,550
  4,743
  4,947
  5,164
  5,393
  5,636
  5,893
  6,163
  6,449
  6,750
  7,068
  7,403
  7,755
  8,126
  8,517
  8,927
  9,360
  9,815
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  2,542
  2,601
  2,667
  2,742
  2,825
  2,917
  3,016
  3,123
  3,239
  3,363
  3,494
  3,636
  3,787
  3,948
  4,118
  4,298
  4,489
  4,691
  4,905
  5,130
  5,368
  5,619
  5,883
  6,162
  6,455
  6,764
  7,089
  7,431
  7,791
  8,169
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,508
  2,542
  2,601
  2,667
  2,742
  2,825
  2,917
  3,016
  3,123
  3,239
  3,363
  3,494
  3,636
  3,787
  3,948
  4,118
  4,298
  4,489
  4,691
  4,905
  5,130
  5,368
  5,619
  5,883
  6,162
  6,455
  6,764
  7,089
  7,431
  7,791
  8,169
Operating income, $m
  484
  510
  521
  535
  550
  567
  585
  605
  627
  650
  675
  704
  732
  763
  795
  829
  866
  904
  945
  988
  1,033
  1,081
  1,132
  1,185
  1,241
  1,300
  1,362
  1,428
  1,497
  1,569
  1,645
EBITDA, $m
  674
  704
  720
  739
  760
  783
  808
  835
  865
  897
  932
  969
  1,008
  1,050
  1,094
  1,141
  1,192
  1,244
  1,300
  1,360
  1,422
  1,488
  1,558
  1,631
  1,708
  1,789
  1,875
  1,965
  2,060
  2,160
  2,265
Interest expense (income), $m
  6
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  25
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  43
  46
  50
  54
  58
  63
  68
  73
  78
  83
  89
  95
Earnings before tax, $m
  478
  504
  515
  528
  542
  557
  574
  593
  613
  634
  657
  684
  710
  738
  768
  799
  833
  868
  906
  945
  987
  1,031
  1,077
  1,126
  1,178
  1,232
  1,290
  1,350
  1,413
  1,480
  1,550
Tax expense, $m
  182
  136
  139
  142
  146
  150
  155
  160
  165
  171
  177
  185
  192
  199
  207
  216
  225
  234
  245
  255
  266
  278
  291
  304
  318
  333
  348
  364
  382
  400
  418
Net income, $m
  296
  368
  376
  385
  395
  407
  419
  433
  447
  463
  480
  499
  518
  539
  560
  583
  608
  634
  661
  690
  720
  753
  787
  822
  860
  900
  941
  985
  1,032
  1,080
  1,131

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,696
  2,740
  2,803
  2,875
  2,955
  3,045
  3,143
  3,250
  3,366
  3,491
  3,625
  3,768
  3,921
  4,084
  4,257
  4,441
  4,636
  4,842
  5,059
  5,290
  5,533
  5,789
  6,060
  6,345
  6,645
  6,961
  7,294
  7,645
  8,014
  8,402
  8,810
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,686
  2,740
  2,803
  2,875
  2,955
  3,045
  3,143
  3,250
  3,366
  3,491
  3,625
  3,768
  3,921
  4,084
  4,257
  4,441
  4,636
  4,842
  5,059
  5,290
  5,533
  5,789
  6,060
  6,345
  6,645
  6,961
  7,294
  7,645
  8,014
  8,402
  8,810
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
  1.114
Average production assets, $m
  2,133
  2,176
  2,226
  2,283
  2,347
  2,419
  2,497
  2,582
  2,674
  2,773
  2,879
  2,993
  3,115
  3,244
  3,381
  3,527
  3,682
  3,846
  4,019
  4,201
  4,394
  4,598
  4,813
  5,039
  5,278
  5,529
  5,794
  6,072
  6,365
  6,674
  6,998
Working capital, $m
  94
  85
  87
  90
  92
  95
  98
  101
  105
  109
  113
  118
  122
  127
  133
  139
  145
  151
  158
  165
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  228
  238
  250
  262
  275
Total debt, $m
  105
  123
  143
  165
  191
  219
  250
  284
  320
  360
  402
  447
  495
  547
  601
  659
  720
  785
  854
  926
  1,003
  1,084
  1,169
  1,259
  1,353
  1,453
  1,558
  1,668
  1,784
  1,907
  2,035
Total liabilities, $m
  845
  863
  883
  905
  931
  959
  990
  1,024
  1,060
  1,100
  1,142
  1,187
  1,235
  1,287
  1,341
  1,399
  1,460
  1,525
  1,594
  1,666
  1,743
  1,824
  1,909
  1,999
  2,093
  2,193
  2,298
  2,408
  2,524
  2,647
  2,775
Total equity, $m
  1,851
  1,877
  1,920
  1,969
  2,024
  2,086
  2,153
  2,227
  2,306
  2,391
  2,483
  2,581
  2,686
  2,798
  2,916
  3,042
  3,175
  3,316
  3,466
  3,623
  3,790
  3,966
  4,151
  4,346
  4,552
  4,769
  4,997
  5,237
  5,490
  5,755
  6,035
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,696
  2,740
  2,803
  2,874
  2,955
  3,045
  3,143
  3,251
  3,366
  3,491
  3,625
  3,768
  3,921
  4,085
  4,257
  4,441
  4,635
  4,841
  5,060
  5,289
  5,533
  5,790
  6,060
  6,345
  6,645
  6,962
  7,295
  7,645
  8,014
  8,402
  8,810
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.057
  0.070
  0.070
  0.080
  0.090
  0.110
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.200
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685
  0.685

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  296
  368
  376
  385
  395
  407
  419
  433
  447
  463
  480
  499
  518
  539
  560
  583
  608
  634
  661
  690
  720
  753
  787
  822
  860
  900
  941
  985
  1,032
  1,080
  1,131
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  190
  194
  199
  204
  210
  216
  223
  230
  239
  247
  257
  265
  276
  287
  299
  312
  326
  340
  356
  372
  389
  407
  426
  446
  467
  489
  513
  537
  563
  591
  619
Funds from operations, $m
  610
  563
  575
  589
  605
  623
  642
  663
  686
  710
  736
  764
  794
  826
  860
  896
  934
  974
  1,017
  1,062
  1,109
  1,160
  1,212
  1,268
  1,327
  1,389
  1,454
  1,523
  1,595
  1,671
  1,751
Change in working capital, $m
  44
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
Cash from operations, $m
  566
  670
  573
  587
  603
  620
  639
  660
  682
  706
  732
  759
  789
  821
  854
  890
  928
  968
  1,010
  1,055
  1,102
  1,152
  1,204
  1,259
  1,318
  1,379
  1,444
  1,512
  1,583
  1,659
  1,738
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -189
  -193
  -197
  -202
  -208
  -214
  -221
  -228
  -237
  -245
  -255
  -265
  -276
  -287
  -299
  -312
  -326
  -340
  -356
  -372
  -389
  -407
  -426
  -446
  -467
  -489
  -513
  -537
  -563
  -591
New CAPEX, $m
  -418
  -43
  -50
  -57
  -64
  -71
  -78
  -85
  -92
  -99
  -106
  -114
  -121
  -129
  -137
  -146
  -155
  -164
  -173
  -183
  -193
  -204
  -215
  -226
  -239
  -251
  -265
  -278
  -293
  -308
  -324
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -407
  -232
  -243
  -254
  -266
  -279
  -292
  -306
  -320
  -336
  -351
  -369
  -386
  -405
  -424
  -445
  -467
  -490
  -513
  -539
  -565
  -593
  -622
  -652
  -685
  -718
  -754
  -791
  -830
  -871
  -915
Free cash flow, $m
  159
  437
  330
  333
  336
  341
  347
  354
  362
  370
  380
  391
  403
  416
  430
  445
  461
  478
  497
  516
  537
  559
  582
  607
  633
  661
  690
  721
  753
  787
  823
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -29
  18
  20
  23
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  122
  129
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -130
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -159
  18
  20
  23
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  116
  122
  129
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  455
  350
  355
  362
  369
  378
  387
  398
  410
  423
  436
  451
  467
  484
  503
  522
  543
  565
  589
  613
  640
  667
  697
  728
  760
  795
  831
  869
  909
  952
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -166
  -36
  -43
  -49
  -55
  -61
  -67
  -73
  -79
  -86
  -92
  -98
  -105
  -112
  -119
  -126
  -133
  -141
  -149
  -158
  -166
  -176
  -185
  -195
  -206
  -217
  -228
  -240
  -253
  -266
  -280
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  10
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  430
  307
  306
  306
  308
  310
  314
  319
  324
  331
  338
  346
  355
  366
  377
  389
  402
  416
  431
  447
  464
  482
  502
  522
  544
  567
  591
  617
  644
  672
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  412
  281
  266
  252
  239
  225
  212
  199
  186
  173
  160
  148
  135
  123
  111
  99
  87
  77
  66
  57
  48
  40
  33
  27
  21
  17
  13
  10
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. operates as a less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carrier in the United States and North America. It provides regional, inter-regional, and national LTL services, including ground and air expedited transportation, and consumer household pickup and delivery. The company also offers various value-added services comprising container drayage, truckload brokerage, supply chain consulting, and warehousing. As of December 31, 2015, it owned 7,688 tractors, as well as operated 225 service and 38 maintenance centers. Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. was founded in 1934 and is based in Thomasville, North Carolina.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.7
Price to Sales 2.6
Price to Book 4.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 53.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -9.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 7.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 5.7%
Total Debt to Equity 5.7%
Interest Coverage 81
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.6%
Return On Total Capital 15.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.9%
Return On Equity 16.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.5%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 89.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 87.3%
EBITDA Margin 22.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22%
Operating Margin 16.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 16%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16%
Net Profit Margin 9.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.9%
Effective Tax Rate 38.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38%
Payout Ratio 0%

ODFL stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ODFL stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2992 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Old Dominion Freight Line. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Old Dominion Freight Line. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ODFL stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ODFL is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Old Dominion Freight Line, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Old Dominion Freight Line.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ODFL stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 83.3%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ODFL stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5% for Old Dominion Freight Line.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Old Dominion Freight Line. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ODFL stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ODFL are equal to 71.3%.

Life of production assets of 11.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Old Dominion Freight Line operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ODFL is equal to 2.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1851 million for Old Dominion Freight Line - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 81.853 million for Old Dominion Freight Line is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Old Dominion Freight Line at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $7.8 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ PACCAR Stock Upgraded: What You Need to Know   [Jun-06-17 02:23PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Old Dominion Freight Line: The Truck Could Be Backing Up   [May-26-17 02:18PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Opening Bell, May 2, 2017   [May-02-17 09:29AM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Today's Bell Ringer, May 2, 2017   [09:14AM  CNBC Videos]
▶ Old Dominion beats Street 1Q forecasts   [Apr-27-17 07:20AM  Associated Press]
▶ Old Dominion Signs Sponsorship Deal With MLB   [10:44AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ How Canadian Pacifics Intermodal Traffic Trended   [Mar-20-17 05:00PM  Market Realist]
▶ Old Dominion misses 4Q profit forecasts   [07:32AM  Associated Press]
Stock chart of ODFL Financial statements of ODFL Annual reports of ODFL
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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