Intrinsic value of Orion Engineered Carbons - OEC

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$21.45

  Intrinsic Value

$18.59

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  Rating & Target

hold

-13%

  Value-price divergence*

+633%

Previous close

$21.45

 
Intrinsic value

$18.59

 
Up/down potential

-13%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

+633%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of OEC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -7.33
  20.60
  19.04
  17.64
  16.37
  15.24
  14.21
  13.29
  12.46
  11.72
  11.04
  10.44
  9.90
  9.41
  8.97
  8.57
  8.21
  7.89
  7.60
  7.34
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.73
Revenue, $m
  1,087
  1,311
  1,561
  1,836
  2,136
  2,462
  2,812
  3,185
  3,582
  4,002
  4,444
  4,908
  5,393
  5,901
  6,430
  6,981
  7,554
  8,150
  8,769
  9,413
  10,082
  10,778
  11,501
  12,252
  13,034
  13,848
  14,696
  15,579
  16,499
  17,458
  18,460
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,020
  1,213
  1,427
  1,659
  1,911
  2,182
  2,471
  2,779
  3,104
  3,446
  3,800
  4,176
  4,569
  4,979
  5,405
  5,849
  6,311
  6,790
  7,289
  7,807
  8,345
  8,905
  9,487
  10,093
  10,723
  11,379
  12,063
  12,775
  13,518
  14,293
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  136
  140
  143
  147
  150
  154
  158
  162
  166
  170
  175
  179
  183
  188
  193
  197
  202
  207
  213
  218
  223
  229
  235
  241
  247
  253
  259
  266
  272
  279
Total operating expenses, $m
  977
  1,156
  1,353
  1,570
  1,806
  2,061
  2,336
  2,629
  2,941
  3,270
  3,616
  3,975
  4,355
  4,752
  5,167
  5,598
  6,046
  6,513
  6,997
  7,502
  8,025
  8,568
  9,134
  9,722
  10,334
  10,970
  11,632
  12,322
  13,041
  13,790
  14,572
Operating income, $m
  111
  154
  207
  266
  330
  400
  475
  556
  641
  732
  828
  933
  1,038
  1,148
  1,263
  1,383
  1,507
  1,637
  1,772
  1,912
  2,058
  2,209
  2,367
  2,531
  2,701
  2,879
  3,064
  3,257
  3,458
  3,668
  3,887
EBITDA, $m
  205
  262
  334
  414
  502
  597
  700
  809
  926
  1,049
  1,179
  1,316
  1,459
  1,608
  1,765
  1,927
  2,096
  2,272
  2,455
  2,646
  2,844
  3,049
  3,263
  3,486
  3,717
  3,959
  4,210
  4,471
  4,744
  5,029
  5,326
Interest expense (income), $m
  45
  43
  47
  61
  76
  92
  109
  128
  148
  170
  192
  216
  241
  267
  294
  323
  352
  383
  415
  449
  483
  519
  557
  596
  636
  678
  722
  767
  815
  864
  916
Earnings before tax, $m
  72
  111
  160
  205
  255
  308
  366
  428
  493
  562
  635
  717
  797
  881
  969
  1,060
  1,155
  1,254
  1,356
  1,463
  1,574
  1,690
  1,810
  1,935
  2,065
  2,201
  2,342
  2,490
  2,643
  2,804
  2,971
Tax expense, $m
  25
  30
  43
  55
  69
  83
  99
  115
  133
  152
  172
  194
  215
  238
  262
  286
  312
  339
  366
  395
  425
  456
  489
  522
  558
  594
  632
  672
  714
  757
  802
Net income, $m
  47
  81
  117
  150
  186
  225
  267
  312
  360
  411
  464
  524
  582
  643
  707
  774
  843
  915
  990
  1,068
  1,149
  1,234
  1,321
  1,413
  1,508
  1,607
  1,710
  1,817
  1,930
  2,047
  2,169

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  84
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,054
  1,169
  1,392
  1,638
  1,906
  2,196
  2,508
  2,841
  3,196
  3,570
  3,964
  4,378
  4,811
  5,264
  5,736
  6,227
  6,739
  7,270
  7,823
  8,397
  8,994
  9,614
  10,259
  10,930
  11,627
  12,353
  13,109
  13,897
  14,718
  15,574
  16,467
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  970
  1,169
  1,392
  1,638
  1,906
  2,196
  2,508
  2,841
  3,196
  3,570
  3,964
  4,378
  4,811
  5,264
  5,736
  6,227
  6,739
  7,270
  7,823
  8,397
  8,994
  9,614
  10,259
  10,930
  11,627
  12,353
  13,109
  13,897
  14,718
  15,574
  16,467
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.121
  1.121
  1.121
  1.121
  1.121
  1.121
  1.121
  1.121
  1.121
  1.121
  1.121
  1.121
  1.121
  1.121
  1.121
  1.121
  1.121
  1.121
  1.121
  1.121
  1.121
  1.121
  1.121
  1.121
  1.121
  1.121
  1.121
  1.121
  1.121
  1.121
  1.121
Average production assets, $m
  500
  603
  718
  844
  983
  1,132
  1,293
  1,465
  1,648
  1,841
  2,044
  2,258
  2,481
  2,714
  2,958
  3,211
  3,475
  3,749
  4,034
  4,330
  4,638
  4,958
  5,290
  5,636
  5,996
  6,370
  6,760
  7,166
  7,589
  8,031
  8,491
Working capital, $m
  206
  155
  184
  217
  252
  290
  332
  376
  423
  472
  524
  579
  636
  696
  759
  824
  891
  962
  1,035
  1,111
  1,190
  1,272
  1,357
  1,446
  1,538
  1,634
  1,734
  1,838
  1,947
  2,060
  2,178
Total debt, $m
  653
  707
  908
  1,129
  1,370
  1,631
  1,912
  2,212
  2,531
  2,868
  3,223
  3,595
  3,985
  4,392
  4,817
  5,259
  5,720
  6,198
  6,696
  7,213
  7,750
  8,308
  8,888
  9,492
  10,120
  10,773
  11,453
  12,162
  12,901
  13,672
  14,475
Total liabilities, $m
  998
  1,052
  1,253
  1,474
  1,715
  1,976
  2,257
  2,557
  2,876
  3,213
  3,568
  3,940
  4,330
  4,737
  5,162
  5,604
  6,065
  6,543
  7,041
  7,558
  8,095
  8,653
  9,233
  9,837
  10,465
  11,118
  11,798
  12,507
  13,246
  14,017
  14,820
Total equity, $m
  56
  117
  139
  164
  191
  220
  251
  284
  320
  357
  396
  438
  481
  526
  574
  623
  674
  727
  782
  840
  899
  961
  1,026
  1,093
  1,163
  1,235
  1,311
  1,390
  1,472
  1,557
  1,647
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,054
  1,169
  1,392
  1,638
  1,906
  2,196
  2,508
  2,841
  3,196
  3,570
  3,964
  4,378
  4,811
  5,263
  5,736
  6,227
  6,739
  7,270
  7,823
  8,398
  8,994
  9,614
  10,259
  10,930
  11,628
  12,353
  13,109
  13,897
  14,718
  15,574
  16,467
Debt-to-equity ratio
  11.661
  6.050
  6.520
  6.890
  7.190
  7.430
  7.620
  7.790
  7.920
  8.030
  8.130
  8.210
  8.280
  8.340
  8.400
  8.450
  8.490
  8.530
  8.560
  8.590
  8.620
  8.640
  8.660
  8.680
  8.700
  8.720
  8.740
  8.750
  8.770
  8.780
  8.790
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.029
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  47
  81
  117
  150
  186
  225
  267
  312
  360
  411
  464
  524
  582
  643
  707
  774
  843
  915
  990
  1,068
  1,149
  1,234
  1,321
  1,413
  1,508
  1,607
  1,710
  1,817
  1,930
  2,047
  2,169
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  94
  107
  127
  148
  172
  197
  224
  253
  284
  317
  352
  383
  421
  460
  501
  544
  589
  635
  684
  734
  786
  840
  897
  955
  1,016
  1,080
  1,146
  1,215
  1,286
  1,361
  1,439
Funds from operations, $m
  212
  188
  244
  298
  358
  422
  491
  566
  644
  728
  815
  906
  1,003
  1,103
  1,209
  1,318
  1,432
  1,551
  1,674
  1,802
  1,935
  2,074
  2,218
  2,368
  2,524
  2,686
  2,856
  3,032
  3,216
  3,408
  3,608
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  26
  29
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  62
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  113
  118
Cash from operations, $m
  210
  162
  214
  266
  322
  384
  450
  521
  598
  678
  763
  851
  945
  1,044
  1,146
  1,253
  1,364
  1,480
  1,601
  1,726
  1,856
  1,992
  2,133
  2,279
  2,432
  2,590
  2,756
  2,928
  3,107
  3,295
  3,490
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -85
  -102
  -122
  -143
  -167
  -192
  -219
  -248
  -279
  -312
  -346
  -383
  -421
  -460
  -501
  -544
  -589
  -635
  -684
  -734
  -786
  -840
  -897
  -955
  -1,016
  -1,080
  -1,146
  -1,215
  -1,286
  -1,361
New CAPEX, $m
  -68
  -103
  -115
  -127
  -138
  -150
  -161
  -172
  -183
  -193
  -203
  -213
  -223
  -233
  -243
  -253
  -264
  -274
  -285
  -296
  -308
  -320
  -333
  -346
  -360
  -374
  -390
  -406
  -423
  -441
  -461
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -66
  -188
  -217
  -249
  -281
  -317
  -353
  -391
  -431
  -472
  -515
  -559
  -606
  -654
  -703
  -754
  -808
  -863
  -920
  -980
  -1,042
  -1,106
  -1,173
  -1,243
  -1,315
  -1,390
  -1,470
  -1,552
  -1,638
  -1,727
  -1,822
Free cash flow, $m
  144
  -26
  -3
  17
  41
  67
  97
  130
  167
  206
  248
  292
  339
  390
  443
  498
  557
  617
  680
  746
  815
  886
  960
  1,037
  1,117
  1,200
  1,286
  1,376
  1,469
  1,567
  1,668
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  60
  200
  221
  241
  261
  281
  300
  319
  337
  355
  372
  390
  407
  425
  442
  460
  479
  497
  517
  537
  558
  580
  604
  628
  653
  680
  709
  739
  770
  804
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -4
  58
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -96
  118
  200
  221
  241
  261
  281
  300
  319
  337
  355
  372
  390
  407
  425
  442
  460
  479
  497
  517
  537
  558
  580
  604
  628
  653
  680
  709
  739
  770
  804
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  51
  93
  197
  238
  282
  329
  378
  430
  485
  543
  603
  664
  729
  797
  868
  941
  1,017
  1,096
  1,178
  1,263
  1,352
  1,444
  1,540
  1,640
  1,744
  1,853
  1,966
  2,085
  2,208
  2,337
  2,472
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -4
  -139
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  78
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  32
  175
  214
  255
  300
  347
  397
  450
  505
  563
  623
  686
  752
  820
  892
  966
  1,043
  1,123
  1,206
  1,292
  1,382
  1,476
  1,573
  1,675
  1,780
  1,891
  2,006
  2,126
  2,252
  2,383
Discount rate, %
 
  9.20
  9.66
  10.14
  10.65
  11.18
  11.74
  12.33
  12.95
  13.59
  14.27
  14.99
  15.74
  16.52
  17.35
  18.22
  19.13
  20.08
  21.09
  22.14
  23.25
  24.41
  25.63
  26.91
  28.26
  29.67
  31.15
  32.71
  34.35
  36.07
  37.87
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  29
  146
  160
  170
  176
  178
  176
  170
  160
  148
  134
  119
  103
  87
  72
  59
  46
  36
  27
  20
  14
  10
  7
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Orion Engineered Carbons S.A. is a producer of carbon black. The Company operates through two segments: Specialty Carbon Black and Rubber Carbon Black. The Specialty Carbon Black segment is engaged in the production of specialty carbon black. The Rubber Carbon Black segment is involved in the production of rubber carbon black. As of December 31, 2016, it operated a diversified carbon black business with over 280 specialty carbon black grades and approximately 80 rubber carbon black grades. Carbon black is used as a pigment and as a performance additive in coatings, polymers, printing and special applications (specialty carbon black), and in the reinforcement of rubber in tires and mechanical rubber goods (rubber carbon black). As of December 31, 2016, it operated a global platform of 13 production facilities in Europe, North and South America, Asia and South Africa and three sales companies, as well as one jointly-owned production plant in Germany.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Orion Engineered Carbons (OEC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 27.1
Price to Sales 1.2
Price to Book 22.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 25.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 14
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 1155.4%
Total Debt to Equity 1166.1%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.7%
Return On Total Capital 6.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Return On Equity 87%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 253%
Asset Turnover 1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 32.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.2%
EBITDA Margin 19.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.9%
Operating Margin 10.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 6.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Net Profit Margin 4.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Effective Tax Rate 34.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Payout Ratio 89.4%

OEC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OEC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1087 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Orion Engineered Carbons. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Orion Engineered Carbons. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OEC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 20.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.2%, whose default value for OEC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Orion Engineered Carbons, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Orion Engineered Carbons.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OEC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 77.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $133 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OEC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.7% for Orion Engineered Carbons.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Orion Engineered Carbons. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OEC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OEC are equal to 46%.

Life of production assets of 5.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Orion Engineered Carbons operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OEC is equal to 11.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $56 million for Orion Engineered Carbons - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 60.731 million for Orion Engineered Carbons is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Orion Engineered Carbons at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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Financial statements of OEC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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