Intrinsic value of ONE Gas - OGS

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$69.61

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$69.61

 
Intrinsic value

$8.31

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of OGS stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -7.82
  13.40
  12.56
  11.80
  11.12
  10.51
  9.96
  9.46
  9.02
  8.62
  8.25
  7.93
  7.64
  7.37
  7.14
  6.92
  6.73
  6.56
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
  5.44
  5.40
Revenue, $m
  1,427
  1,618
  1,821
  2,036
  2,263
  2,501
  2,750
  3,010
  3,282
  3,564
  3,859
  4,165
  4,483
  4,813
  5,156
  5,513
  5,884
  6,270
  6,672
  7,089
  7,524
  7,977
  8,449
  8,942
  9,455
  9,992
  10,551
  11,136
  11,747
  12,386
  13,055
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,367
  1,537
  1,716
  1,905
  2,104
  2,312
  2,529
  2,756
  2,992
  3,237
  3,477
  3,743
  4,019
  4,305
  4,603
  4,913
  5,235
  5,570
  5,919
  6,282
  6,660
  7,055
  7,466
  7,895
  8,342
  8,810
  9,298
  9,808
  10,342
  10,900
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,158
  1,367
  1,537
  1,716
  1,905
  2,104
  2,312
  2,529
  2,756
  2,992
  3,237
  3,477
  3,743
  4,019
  4,305
  4,603
  4,913
  5,235
  5,570
  5,919
  6,282
  6,660
  7,055
  7,466
  7,895
  8,342
  8,810
  9,298
  9,808
  10,342
  10,900
Operating income, $m
  269
  251
  285
  320
  358
  397
  438
  481
  526
  573
  621
  687
  740
  795
  851
  910
  971
  1,035
  1,101
  1,170
  1,242
  1,317
  1,395
  1,476
  1,561
  1,649
  1,742
  1,838
  1,939
  2,045
  2,155
EBITDA, $m
  413
  424
  477
  533
  593
  655
  720
  789
  860
  934
  1,011
  1,091
  1,174
  1,261
  1,351
  1,444
  1,541
  1,642
  1,748
  1,857
  1,971
  2,090
  2,213
  2,342
  2,477
  2,617
  2,764
  2,917
  3,077
  3,245
  3,420
Interest expense (income), $m
  42
  46
  60
  76
  92
  108
  126
  145
  164
  184
  205
  227
  250
  274
  298
  324
  350
  378
  407
  437
  468
  500
  534
  569
  606
  644
  684
  726
  769
  815
  862
Earnings before tax, $m
  225
  205
  225
  245
  266
  289
  312
  336
  362
  388
  416
  460
  490
  521
  553
  586
  621
  657
  695
  734
  774
  817
  861
  907
  955
  1,005
  1,058
  1,113
  1,170
  1,230
  1,293
Tax expense, $m
  85
  55
  61
  66
  72
  78
  84
  91
  98
  105
  112
  124
  132
  141
  149
  158
  168
  177
  188
  198
  209
  220
  232
  245
  258
  271
  286
  300
  316
  332
  349
Net income, $m
  140
  150
  164
  179
  194
  211
  228
  246
  264
  283
  304
  336
  358
  380
  404
  428
  453
  480
  507
  536
  565
  596
  628
  662
  697
  734
  772
  812
  854
  898
  944

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  15
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,943
  5,580
  6,281
  7,022
  7,803
  8,624
  9,483
  10,380
  11,316
  12,291
  13,306
  14,361
  15,457
  16,597
  17,781
  19,012
  20,291
  21,622
  23,005
  24,446
  25,945
  27,508
  29,136
  30,834
  32,605
  34,454
  36,384
  38,401
  40,508
  42,712
  45,017
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,928
  5,580
  6,281
  7,022
  7,803
  8,624
  9,483
  10,380
  11,316
  12,291
  13,306
  14,361
  15,457
  16,597
  17,781
  19,012
  20,291
  21,622
  23,005
  24,446
  25,945
  27,508
  29,136
  30,834
  32,605
  34,454
  36,384
  38,401
  40,508
  42,712
  45,017
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
  0.290
Average production assets, $m
  3,622
  4,107
  4,623
  5,169
  5,743
  6,347
  6,979
  7,640
  8,329
  9,046
  9,793
  10,570
  11,377
  12,216
  13,087
  13,993
  14,935
  15,914
  16,932
  17,993
  19,096
  20,246
  21,445
  22,694
  23,998
  25,359
  26,779
  28,264
  29,815
  31,437
  33,133
Working capital, $m
  125
  290
  326
  365
  405
  448
  492
  539
  587
  638
  691
  745
  802
  862
  923
  987
  1,053
  1,122
  1,194
  1,269
  1,347
  1,428
  1,512
  1,601
  1,693
  1,788
  1,889
  1,993
  2,103
  2,217
  2,337
Total debt, $m
  1,337
  1,725
  2,157
  2,615
  3,097
  3,603
  4,133
  4,687
  5,264
  5,866
  6,492
  7,143
  7,819
  8,522
  9,253
  10,012
  10,802
  11,622
  12,476
  13,365
  14,290
  15,254
  16,259
  17,306
  18,399
  19,540
  20,731
  21,975
  23,276
  24,635
  26,057
Total liabilities, $m
  3,055
  3,443
  3,875
  4,333
  4,815
  5,321
  5,851
  6,405
  6,982
  7,584
  8,210
  8,861
  9,537
  10,240
  10,971
  11,730
  12,520
  13,340
  14,194
  15,083
  16,008
  16,972
  17,977
  19,024
  20,117
  21,258
  22,449
  23,693
  24,994
  26,353
  27,775
Total equity, $m
  1,888
  2,137
  2,406
  2,690
  2,989
  3,303
  3,632
  3,976
  4,334
  4,707
  5,096
  5,500
  5,920
  6,357
  6,810
  7,281
  7,771
  8,281
  8,811
  9,363
  9,937
  10,535
  11,159
  11,809
  12,488
  13,196
  13,935
  14,708
  15,515
  16,359
  17,241
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,943
  5,580
  6,281
  7,023
  7,804
  8,624
  9,483
  10,381
  11,316
  12,291
  13,306
  14,361
  15,457
  16,597
  17,781
  19,011
  20,291
  21,621
  23,005
  24,446
  25,945
  27,507
  29,136
  30,833
  32,605
  34,454
  36,384
  38,401
  40,509
  42,712
  45,016
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.708
  0.810
  0.900
  0.970
  1.040
  1.090
  1.140
  1.180
  1.210
  1.250
  1.270
  1.300
  1.320
  1.340
  1.360
  1.380
  1.390
  1.400
  1.420
  1.430
  1.440
  1.450
  1.460
  1.470
  1.470
  1.480
  1.490
  1.490
  1.500
  1.510
  1.510
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383
  0.383

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  140
  150
  164
  179
  194
  211
  228
  246
  264
  283
  304
  336
  358
  380
  404
  428
  453
  480
  507
  536
  565
  596
  628
  662
  697
  734
  772
  812
  854
  898
  944
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  144
  173
  192
  213
  235
  258
  282
  307
  334
  361
  390
  403
  434
  466
  500
  534
  570
  607
  646
  687
  729
  773
  818
  866
  916
  968
  1,022
  1,079
  1,138
  1,200
  1,265
Funds from operations, $m
  202
  322
  356
  392
  429
  469
  510
  553
  598
  645
  693
  739
  792
  846
  903
  962
  1,023
  1,087
  1,153
  1,222
  1,294
  1,369
  1,447
  1,528
  1,613
  1,702
  1,794
  1,891
  1,992
  2,098
  2,208
Change in working capital, $m
  -80
  34
  36
  38
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  61
  64
  66
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  120
Cash from operations, $m
  282
  398
  320
  353
  389
  426
  465
  506
  549
  594
  640
  685
  735
  787
  842
  898
  957
  1,018
  1,081
  1,147
  1,216
  1,288
  1,362
  1,440
  1,521
  1,606
  1,694
  1,786
  1,883
  1,983
  2,089
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -138
  -157
  -176
  -197
  -219
  -242
  -266
  -292
  -318
  -345
  -374
  -403
  -434
  -466
  -500
  -534
  -570
  -607
  -646
  -687
  -729
  -773
  -818
  -866
  -916
  -968
  -1,022
  -1,079
  -1,138
  -1,200
New CAPEX, $m
  -309
  -486
  -516
  -546
  -575
  -604
  -632
  -661
  -689
  -718
  -747
  -776
  -807
  -839
  -872
  -906
  -942
  -979
  -1,019
  -1,060
  -1,104
  -1,150
  -1,198
  -1,250
  -1,304
  -1,361
  -1,421
  -1,484
  -1,551
  -1,622
  -1,696
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -309
  -624
  -673
  -722
  -772
  -823
  -874
  -927
  -981
  -1,036
  -1,092
  -1,150
  -1,210
  -1,273
  -1,338
  -1,406
  -1,476
  -1,549
  -1,626
  -1,706
  -1,791
  -1,879
  -1,971
  -2,068
  -2,170
  -2,277
  -2,389
  -2,506
  -2,630
  -2,760
  -2,896
Free cash flow, $m
  -27
  -226
  -353
  -369
  -383
  -397
  -409
  -420
  -431
  -442
  -452
  -466
  -476
  -486
  -496
  -507
  -519
  -531
  -545
  -559
  -574
  -591
  -609
  -628
  -649
  -671
  -695
  -720
  -747
  -776
  -807
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  133
  403
  432
  457
  482
  506
  530
  554
  578
  602
  626
  651
  677
  703
  731
  759
  789
  821
  854
  889
  925
  964
  1,005
  1,048
  1,093
  1,141
  1,191
  1,244
  1,300
  1,360
  1,422
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -20
  73
  189
  195
  201
  205
  208
  210
  212
  213
  214
  219
  219
  219
  219
  219
  219
  220
  221
  222
  223
  225
  228
  231
  234
  238
  243
  248
  254
  261
  268
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  112
  476
  621
  652
  683
  711
  738
  764
  790
  815
  840
  870
  896
  922
  950
  978
  1,008
  1,041
  1,075
  1,111
  1,148
  1,189
  1,233
  1,279
  1,327
  1,379
  1,434
  1,492
  1,554
  1,621
  1,690
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  85
  177
  80
  89
  99
  109
  121
  133
  146
  160
  174
  185
  201
  217
  234
  252
  271
  290
  309
  330
  351
  373
  396
  420
  444
  470
  496
  524
  553
  583
  615
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -46
  -249
  -268
  -284
  -299
  -314
  -329
  -344
  -359
  -373
  -389
  -404
  -420
  -436
  -454
  -471
  -490
  -510
  -530
  -552
  -574
  -598
  -624
  -650
  -678
  -708
  -739
  -772
  -807
  -844
  -883
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  6.70
  7.04
  7.39
  7.76
  8.14
  8.55
  8.98
  9.43
  9.90
  10.39
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.63
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.12
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
  21.61
  22.69
  23.82
  25.01
  26.26
  27.58
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.0
  93.7
  89.9
  86.6
  83.6
  80.9
  78.5
  76.4
  74.5
  72.8
  71.2
  69.8
  68.4
  67.2
  66.1
  65.1
  64.1
  63.3
  62.5
  61.7
  61.0
  60.3
  59.6
  59.0
  58.5
  57.9
  57.4
  56.9
  56.4
  55.9

ONE Gas, Inc. operates as a regulated natural gas distribution utility company in the United States. The company operates through three divisions: Oklahoma Natural Gas, Kansas Gas Service, and Texas Gas Service. It distributes natural gas to residential, commercial and industrial, transportation, and wholesale and public authority customers. As of December 31, 2016, the company owned 19,200 miles of distribution mains and transmission pipelines in Oklahoma; 13,100 miles of distribution mains and transmission pipelines in Kansas; and 10,400 miles of distribution mains and transmission pipelines in Texas, as well as had 50.4 billion cubic feet of natural gas storage capacity under lease. It provides natural gas distribution services to approximately 2 million customers. The company was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  ONE Gas (OGS)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26
Price to Sales 2.6
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -134.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -7.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 5.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 1.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 63.1%
Total Debt to Equity 70.8%
Interest Coverage 6
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Return On Total Capital 4.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Return On Equity 7.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 62%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 54%
EBITDA Margin 28.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 23.5%
Operating Margin 18.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 15.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.7%
Net Profit Margin 9.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Effective Tax Rate 37.8%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38%
Payout Ratio 52.1%

OGS stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OGS stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1427 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by ONE Gas. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of ONE Gas. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OGS stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.7%, whose default value for OGS is calculated based on our internal credit rating of ONE Gas, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of ONE Gas.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OGS stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OGS stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for ONE Gas.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for ONE Gas. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OGS stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OGS are equal to 253.8%.

Life of production assets of 26.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in ONE Gas operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OGS is equal to 17.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1888 million for ONE Gas - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 52.071 million for ONE Gas is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of ONE Gas at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.6 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Utility Industry Outlook - May 2017   [May-18-17 02:25PM  Zacks]
▶ ETFs with exposure to ONE Gas, Inc. : May 9, 2017   [May-09-17 04:54PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ONE Gas beats 1Q profit forecasts   [May-01-17 05:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ ONE Gas Increases Quarterly Dividend   [Jan-17-17 04:10PM  PR Newswire]
▶ ONE Gas Issues 2017 Financial Guidance   [04:05PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Is ONE Gas Inc (OGS) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-11-16 10:00AM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of OGS Financial statements of OGS Annual reports of OGS
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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