Intrinsic value of Omega Healthcare Investors - OHI

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$34.98

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$34.98

 
Intrinsic value

$4.09

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as OHI.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of OHI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  21.10
  10.90
  10.31
  9.78
  9.30
  8.87
  8.48
  8.14
  7.82
  7.54
  7.29
  7.06
  6.85
  6.67
  6.50
  6.35
  6.21
  6.09
  5.98
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.58
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.28
Revenue, $m
  901
  999
  1,102
  1,210
  1,323
  1,440
  1,562
  1,689
  1,821
  1,959
  2,101
  2,250
  2,404
  2,564
  2,731
  2,904
  3,084
  3,272
  3,468
  3,672
  3,885
  4,107
  4,339
  4,581
  4,834
  5,099
  5,375
  5,665
  5,967
  6,284
  6,616
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  369
  400
  433
  467
  503
  540
  579
  619
  661
  704
  685
  732
  781
  832
  885
  940
  997
  1,057
  1,119
  1,184
  1,251
  1,322
  1,396
  1,473
  1,553
  1,638
  1,726
  1,818
  1,914
  2,015
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  54
  56
  57
  59
  60
  61
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  91
  94
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  108
  111
Total operating expenses, $m
  391
  423
  456
  490
  526
  563
  601
  642
  684
  727
  772
  755
  803
  854
  907
  962
  1,019
  1,078
  1,140
  1,204
  1,271
  1,340
  1,413
  1,490
  1,569
  1,651
  1,739
  1,829
  1,924
  2,022
  2,126
Operating income, $m
  510
  576
  646
  720
  797
  877
  960
  1,047
  1,138
  1,231
  1,329
  1,495
  1,600
  1,710
  1,824
  1,943
  2,066
  2,195
  2,329
  2,469
  2,615
  2,767
  2,926
  3,092
  3,266
  3,447
  3,637
  3,836
  4,044
  4,261
  4,489
EBITDA, $m
  777
  908
  1,006
  1,108
  1,215
  1,327
  1,443
  1,564
  1,690
  1,820
  1,956
  2,097
  2,244
  2,397
  2,555
  2,720
  2,892
  3,071
  3,258
  3,452
  3,655
  3,867
  4,088
  4,319
  4,561
  4,813
  5,077
  5,353
  5,642
  5,944
  6,261
Interest expense (income), $m
  148
  162
  182
  203
  226
  249
  274
  299
  326
  353
  382
  412
  442
  475
  508
  543
  579
  617
  656
  697
  739
  784
  830
  878
  929
  982
  1,037
  1,094
  1,155
  1,218
  1,284
Earnings before tax, $m
  384
  415
  465
  517
  571
  628
  687
  748
  812
  878
  947
  1,083
  1,158
  1,235
  1,316
  1,400
  1,487
  1,578
  1,673
  1,772
  1,876
  1,983
  2,096
  2,214
  2,337
  2,466
  2,600
  2,741
  2,889
  3,043
  3,205
Tax expense, $m
  1
  112
  125
  140
  154
  170
  185
  202
  219
  237
  256
  292
  313
  334
  355
  378
  402
  426
  452
  478
  506
  536
  566
  598
  631
  666
  702
  740
  780
  822
  865
Net income, $m
  366
  303
  339
  377
  417
  458
  501
  546
  593
  641
  691
  791
  845
  902
  961
  1,022
  1,086
  1,152
  1,221
  1,294
  1,369
  1,448
  1,530
  1,616
  1,706
  1,800
  1,898
  2,001
  2,109
  2,222
  2,340

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  94
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8,949
  9,796
  10,806
  11,863
  12,966
  14,116
  15,314
  16,560
  17,855
  19,202
  20,601
  22,054
  23,565
  25,136
  26,770
  28,470
  30,239
  32,082
  34,002
  36,003
  38,090
  40,268
  42,541
  44,915
  47,396
  49,989
  52,700
  55,536
  58,503
  61,609
  64,861
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  8,855
  9,796
  10,806
  11,863
  12,966
  14,116
  15,314
  16,560
  17,855
  19,202
  20,601
  22,054
  23,565
  25,136
  26,770
  28,470
  30,239
  32,082
  34,002
  36,003
  38,090
  40,268
  42,541
  44,915
  47,396
  49,989
  52,700
  55,536
  58,503
  61,609
  64,861
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
Average production assets, $m
  6,033
  6,691
  7,381
  8,102
  8,856
  9,641
  10,459
  11,310
  12,195
  13,115
  14,070
  15,063
  16,095
  17,168
  18,284
  19,445
  20,653
  21,912
  23,223
  24,590
  26,015
  27,503
  29,055
  30,677
  32,371
  34,142
  35,994
  37,930
  39,957
  42,078
  44,299
Working capital, $m
  0
  -104
  -115
  -126
  -138
  -150
  -162
  -176
  -189
  -204
  -219
  -234
  -250
  -267
  -284
  -302
  -321
  -340
  -361
  -382
  -404
  -427
  -451
  -476
  -503
  -530
  -559
  -589
  -621
  -654
  -688
Total debt, $m
  4,367
  4,910
  5,491
  6,098
  6,733
  7,394
  8,083
  8,799
  9,544
  10,318
  11,122
  11,958
  12,827
  13,730
  14,670
  15,647
  16,665
  17,724
  18,828
  19,979
  21,179
  22,431
  23,738
  25,103
  26,530
  28,021
  29,579
  31,210
  32,916
  34,702
  36,572
Total liabilities, $m
  5,091
  5,633
  6,214
  6,821
  7,456
  8,117
  8,806
  9,522
  10,267
  11,041
  11,845
  12,681
  13,550
  14,453
  15,393
  16,370
  17,388
  18,447
  19,551
  20,702
  21,902
  23,154
  24,461
  25,826
  27,253
  28,744
  30,302
  31,933
  33,639
  35,425
  37,295
Total equity, $m
  3,859
  4,163
  4,593
  5,042
  5,511
  6,000
  6,509
  7,038
  7,589
  8,161
  8,755
  9,373
  10,015
  10,683
  11,377
  12,100
  12,852
  13,635
  14,451
  15,301
  16,188
  17,114
  18,080
  19,089
  20,143
  21,245
  22,397
  23,603
  24,864
  26,184
  27,566
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8,950
  9,796
  10,807
  11,863
  12,967
  14,117
  15,315
  16,560
  17,856
  19,202
  20,600
  22,054
  23,565
  25,136
  26,770
  28,470
  30,240
  32,082
  34,002
  36,003
  38,090
  40,268
  42,541
  44,915
  47,396
  49,989
  52,699
  55,536
  58,503
  61,609
  64,861
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.132
  1.180
  1.200
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
  1.240
  1.250
  1.260
  1.260
  1.270
  1.280
  1.280
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.300
  1.300
  1.300
  1.310
  1.310
  1.310
  1.310
  1.320
  1.320
  1.320
  1.320
  1.320
  1.320
  1.330
  1.330
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  366
  303
  339
  377
  417
  458
  501
  546
  593
  641
  691
  791
  845
  902
  961
  1,022
  1,086
  1,152
  1,221
  1,294
  1,369
  1,448
  1,530
  1,616
  1,706
  1,800
  1,898
  2,001
  2,109
  2,222
  2,340
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  267
  332
  360
  388
  419
  450
  483
  517
  552
  589
  627
  603
  644
  687
  731
  778
  826
  876
  929
  984
  1,041
  1,100
  1,162
  1,227
  1,295
  1,366
  1,440
  1,517
  1,598
  1,683
  1,772
Funds from operations, $m
  584
  635
  699
  766
  836
  908
  984
  1,063
  1,145
  1,230
  1,319
  1,393
  1,489
  1,588
  1,692
  1,800
  1,912
  2,029
  2,150
  2,277
  2,410
  2,548
  2,692
  2,843
  3,001
  3,166
  3,338
  3,518
  3,707
  3,905
  4,112
Change in working capital, $m
  -42
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
Cash from operations, $m
  626
  945
  710
  777
  847
  921
  997
  1,076
  1,159
  1,244
  1,333
  1,409
  1,505
  1,605
  1,709
  1,818
  1,931
  2,048
  2,171
  2,299
  2,432
  2,571
  2,716
  2,868
  3,027
  3,193
  3,367
  3,548
  3,739
  3,938
  4,146
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -241
  -268
  -295
  -324
  -354
  -386
  -418
  -452
  -488
  -525
  -563
  -603
  -644
  -687
  -731
  -778
  -826
  -876
  -929
  -984
  -1,041
  -1,100
  -1,162
  -1,227
  -1,295
  -1,366
  -1,440
  -1,517
  -1,598
  -1,683
New CAPEX, $m
  -1,029
  -658
  -690
  -722
  -754
  -786
  -818
  -851
  -885
  -919
  -955
  -993
  -1,032
  -1,073
  -1,116
  -1,161
  -1,208
  -1,258
  -1,311
  -1,367
  -1,425
  -1,487
  -1,553
  -1,622
  -1,694
  -1,771
  -1,852
  -1,937
  -2,027
  -2,121
  -2,221
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,114
  -899
  -958
  -1,017
  -1,078
  -1,140
  -1,204
  -1,269
  -1,337
  -1,407
  -1,480
  -1,556
  -1,635
  -1,717
  -1,803
  -1,892
  -1,986
  -2,084
  -2,187
  -2,296
  -2,409
  -2,528
  -2,653
  -2,784
  -2,921
  -3,066
  -3,218
  -3,377
  -3,544
  -3,719
  -3,904
Free cash flow, $m
  -488
  46
  -248
  -240
  -230
  -219
  -207
  -193
  -179
  -163
  -147
  -147
  -130
  -112
  -93
  -75
  -56
  -36
  -17
  3
  23
  43
  64
  85
  106
  127
  149
  172
  195
  218
  242
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  827
  543
  581
  608
  634
  661
  689
  716
  745
  774
  804
  836
  869
  903
  939
  977
  1,017
  1,059
  1,104
  1,151
  1,200
  1,252
  1,307
  1,365
  1,426
  1,491
  1,559
  1,631
  1,706
  1,786
  1,870
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -4
  0
  96
  82
  65
  47
  27
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1,050
  543
  677
  690
  699
  708
  716
  722
  745
  774
  804
  836
  869
  903
  939
  977
  1,017
  1,059
  1,104
  1,151
  1,200
  1,252
  1,307
  1,365
  1,426
  1,491
  1,559
  1,631
  1,706
  1,786
  1,870
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  562
  589
  333
  368
  404
  442
  482
  523
  566
  611
  658
  689
  739
  792
  846
  903
  962
  1,023
  1,087
  1,154
  1,223
  1,295
  1,371
  1,450
  1,532
  1,618
  1,708
  1,802
  1,901
  2,004
  2,112
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -121
  -398
  -429
  -449
  -469
  -489
  -509
  -529
  -551
  -572
  -595
  -618
  -642
  -668
  -694
  -722
  -752
  -783
  -816
  -851
  -887
  -926
  -966
  -1,009
  -1,054
  -1,102
  -1,152
  -1,205
  -1,261
  -1,320
  -1,382
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  94
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  284
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  16
  39
  63
  71
  97
  124
  152
  180
  210
  240
  271
  303
  336
  370
  405
  441
  478
  516
  556
  597
  640
  684
  730
Discount rate, %
 
  8.50
  8.93
  9.37
  9.84
  10.33
  10.85
  11.39
  11.96
  12.56
  13.19
  13.85
  14.54
  15.26
  16.03
  16.83
  17.67
  18.55
  19.48
  20.46
  21.48
  22.55
  23.68
  24.86
  26.11
  27.41
  28.78
  30.22
  31.73
  33.32
  34.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  262
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  6
  13
  18
  17
  19
  20
  19
  17
  16
  13
  11
  9
  7
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  98.7
  97.7
  97.0
  96.6
  96.3
  96.3
  96.3
  96.3
  96.3
  96.3
  96.3
  96.3
  96.3
  96.3
  96.3
  96.3
  96.3
  96.3
  96.3
  96.3
  96.3
  96.3
  96.3
  96.3
  96.3
  96.3
  96.3
  96.3
  96.3

Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. is a real estate investment firm. The firm invests in the real estate markets of United States. It invests in healthcare facilities, primarily in long-term healthcare facilities in order to create its portfolio. Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. was founded in 1992 and is based in Maryland, United States.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.7
Price to Sales 7.6
Price to Book 1.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11
Price to Free Cash Flow -17
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 21.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 124.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 99%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 113.2%
Total Debt to Equity 113.2%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Return On Total Capital 4.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Return On Equity 9.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 88.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 86.1%
Operating Margin 56.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 42.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.3%
Net Profit Margin 40.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Payout Ratio 129.5%

OHI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OHI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $901 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Omega Healthcare Investors. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Omega Healthcare Investors. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OHI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.5%, whose default value for OHI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Omega Healthcare Investors, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Omega Healthcare Investors.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OHI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 37.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $53 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OHI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.7% for Omega Healthcare Investors.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Omega Healthcare Investors. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OHI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OHI are equal to 669.6%.

Life of production assets of 25 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Omega Healthcare Investors operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OHI is equal to -10.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3859 million for Omega Healthcare Investors - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 196.726 million for Omega Healthcare Investors is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Omega Healthcare Investors at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.9 billion.


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Stock chart of OHI Financial statements of OHI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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