Intrinsic value of Omega Healthcare Investors - OHI

Previous Close

$26.50

  Intrinsic Value

$8.13

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-69%

Previous close

$26.50

 
Intrinsic value

$8.13

 
Up/down potential

-69%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as OHI.

We calculate the intrinsic value of OHI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  21.10
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  901
  919
  940
  964
  991
  1,022
  1,054
  1,090
  1,129
  1,171
  1,216
  1,264
  1,315
  1,370
  1,428
  1,490
  1,555
  1,624
  1,697
  1,774
  1,856
  1,942
  2,033
  2,128
  2,229
  2,335
  2,447
  2,565
  2,688
  2,819
  2,956
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  344
  351
  358
  366
  375
  386
  396
  408
  421
  435
  385
  401
  417
  435
  454
  474
  495
  517
  541
  565
  592
  619
  648
  679
  711
  745
  781
  819
  859
  900
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  54
  56
  57
  59
  60
  61
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  91
  94
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  108
  111
Total operating expenses, $m
  391
  398
  407
  415
  425
  435
  447
  459
  473
  487
  503
  455
  472
  490
  510
  531
  553
  576
  600
  626
  652
  681
  710
  742
  775
  809
  846
  884
  925
  967
  1,011
Operating income, $m
  510
  520
  534
  549
  567
  586
  607
  631
  656
  684
  713
  810
  843
  880
  918
  959
  1,003
  1,049
  1,098
  1,149
  1,204
  1,261
  1,322
  1,386
  1,454
  1,526
  1,601
  1,680
  1,764
  1,851
  1,944
EBITDA, $m
  777
  831
  850
  872
  896
  924
  954
  987
  1,023
  1,062
  1,104
  1,148
  1,196
  1,247
  1,301
  1,358
  1,419
  1,484
  1,552
  1,624
  1,701
  1,782
  1,867
  1,957
  2,051
  2,151
  2,256
  2,367
  2,484
  2,606
  2,736
Interest expense (income), $m
  148
  162
  165
  169
  174
  180
  186
  193
  201
  209
  218
  227
  237
  248
  259
  271
  284
  298
  312
  327
  343
  360
  378
  397
  417
  438
  460
  484
  508
  534
  561
Earnings before tax, $m
  384
  359
  369
  380
  392
  406
  421
  438
  456
  475
  496
  583
  607
  632
  659
  688
  719
  751
  786
  822
  860
  901
  944
  989
  1,037
  1,087
  1,141
  1,196
  1,255
  1,317
  1,383
Tax expense, $m
  1
  97
  100
  103
  106
  110
  114
  118
  123
  128
  134
  157
  164
  171
  178
  186
  194
  203
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  267
  280
  294
  308
  323
  339
  356
  373
Net income, $m
  366
  262
  269
  277
  286
  296
  307
  320
  333
  347
  362
  425
  443
  461
  481
  502
  525
  548
  573
  600
  628
  658
  689
  722
  757
  794
  833
  873
  916
  962
  1,009

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  94
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8,949
  9,010
  9,217
  9,454
  9,720
  10,015
  10,338
  10,690
  11,071
  11,482
  11,922
  12,394
  12,897
  13,432
  14,002
  14,606
  15,246
  15,923
  16,640
  17,397
  18,196
  19,040
  19,929
  20,867
  21,855
  22,895
  23,990
  25,143
  26,357
  27,633
  28,976
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  8,855
  9,010
  9,217
  9,454
  9,720
  10,015
  10,338
  10,690
  11,071
  11,482
  11,922
  12,394
  12,897
  13,432
  14,002
  14,606
  15,246
  15,923
  16,640
  17,397
  18,196
  19,040
  19,929
  20,867
  21,855
  22,895
  23,990
  25,143
  26,357
  27,633
  28,976
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
Average production assets, $m
  6,033
  6,154
  6,295
  6,457
  6,639
  6,840
  7,061
  7,301
  7,562
  7,842
  8,143
  8,465
  8,808
  9,174
  9,563
  9,976
  10,413
  10,875
  11,365
  11,882
  12,428
  13,004
  13,611
  14,252
  14,926
  15,637
  16,385
  17,173
  18,001
  18,873
  19,790
Working capital, $m
  0
  -96
  -98
  -100
  -103
  -106
  -110
  -113
  -117
  -122
  -126
  -131
  -137
  -142
  -149
  -155
  -162
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -193
  -202
  -211
  -221
  -232
  -243
  -254
  -267
  -280
  -293
  -307
Total debt, $m
  4,367
  4,458
  4,577
  4,713
  4,866
  5,035
  5,221
  5,424
  5,643
  5,879
  6,132
  6,403
  6,693
  7,001
  7,328
  7,675
  8,043
  8,433
  8,845
  9,280
  9,740
  10,225
  10,736
  11,275
  11,843
  12,442
  13,071
  13,734
  14,432
  15,166
  15,938
Total liabilities, $m
  5,091
  5,181
  5,300
  5,436
  5,589
  5,758
  5,944
  6,147
  6,366
  6,602
  6,855
  7,126
  7,416
  7,724
  8,051
  8,398
  8,766
  9,156
  9,568
  10,003
  10,463
  10,948
  11,459
  11,998
  12,566
  13,165
  13,794
  14,457
  15,155
  15,889
  16,661
Total equity, $m
  3,859
  3,829
  3,917
  4,018
  4,131
  4,256
  4,394
  4,543
  4,705
  4,880
  5,067
  5,267
  5,481
  5,709
  5,951
  6,207
  6,479
  6,767
  7,072
  7,394
  7,733
  8,092
  8,470
  8,868
  9,288
  9,730
  10,196
  10,686
  11,202
  11,744
  12,315
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8,950
  9,010
  9,217
  9,454
  9,720
  10,014
  10,338
  10,690
  11,071
  11,482
  11,922
  12,393
  12,897
  13,433
  14,002
  14,605
  15,245
  15,923
  16,640
  17,397
  18,196
  19,040
  19,929
  20,866
  21,854
  22,895
  23,990
  25,143
  26,357
  27,633
  28,976
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.132
  1.160
  1.170
  1.170
  1.180
  1.180
  1.190
  1.190
  1.200
  1.200
  1.210
  1.220
  1.220
  1.230
  1.230
  1.240
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.260
  1.260
  1.260
  1.270
  1.270
  1.280
  1.280
  1.280
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  366
  262
  269
  277
  286
  296
  307
  320
  333
  347
  362
  425
  443
  461
  481
  502
  525
  548
  573
  600
  628
  658
  689
  722
  757
  794
  833
  873
  916
  962
  1,009
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  267
  310
  316
  323
  330
  338
  347
  356
  367
  378
  390
  339
  352
  367
  383
  399
  417
  435
  455
  475
  497
  520
  544
  570
  597
  625
  655
  687
  720
  755
  792
Funds from operations, $m
  584
  572
  585
  600
  616
  634
  654
  676
  699
  725
  752
  764
  795
  828
  864
  901
  941
  983
  1,028
  1,075
  1,125
  1,178
  1,234
  1,292
  1,354
  1,419
  1,488
  1,560
  1,637
  1,717
  1,801
Change in working capital, $m
  -42
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
Cash from operations, $m
  626
  574
  588
  602
  619
  637
  658
  680
  703
  729
  757
  769
  800
  834
  870
  908
  948
  991
  1,036
  1,083
  1,134
  1,187
  1,243
  1,302
  1,365
  1,430
  1,500
  1,573
  1,649
  1,730
  1,815
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -241
  -246
  -252
  -258
  -266
  -274
  -282
  -292
  -302
  -314
  -326
  -339
  -352
  -367
  -383
  -399
  -417
  -435
  -455
  -475
  -497
  -520
  -544
  -570
  -597
  -625
  -655
  -687
  -720
  -755
New CAPEX, $m
  -1,029
  -121
  -142
  -162
  -182
  -201
  -221
  -240
  -260
  -280
  -301
  -322
  -344
  -366
  -389
  -413
  -437
  -463
  -489
  -517
  -546
  -576
  -608
  -640
  -675
  -711
  -748
  -788
  -829
  -872
  -917
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,114
  -362
  -388
  -414
  -440
  -467
  -495
  -522
  -552
  -582
  -615
  -648
  -683
  -718
  -756
  -796
  -836
  -880
  -924
  -972
  -1,021
  -1,073
  -1,128
  -1,184
  -1,245
  -1,308
  -1,373
  -1,443
  -1,516
  -1,592
  -1,672
Free cash flow, $m
  -488
  212
  200
  189
  179
  171
  163
  157
  151
  146
  142
  121
  118
  116
  114
  113
  112
  111
  111
  112
  112
  114
  115
  117
  120
  123
  126
  130
  134
  138
  143
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  827
  91
  119
  136
  153
  169
  186
  202
  219
  236
  253
  271
  289
  308
  327
  347
  368
  390
  412
  435
  460
  485
  511
  539
  568
  598
  630
  663
  698
  734
  772
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1,050
  91
  119
  136
  153
  169
  186
  202
  219
  236
  253
  271
  289
  308
  327
  347
  368
  390
  412
  435
  460
  485
  511
  539
  568
  598
  630
  663
  698
  734
  772
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  562
  303
  319
  325
  332
  340
  349
  359
  370
  382
  395
  392
  408
  424
  441
  460
  480
  501
  523
  547
  572
  599
  627
  656
  688
  721
  756
  793
  831
  872
  915
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -121
  -64
  -88
  -101
  -113
  -125
  -137
  -150
  -162
  -175
  -187
  -200
  -214
  -228
  -242
  -257
  -272
  -288
  -305
  -322
  -340
  -358
  -378
  -398
  -420
  -442
  -466
  -490
  -516
  -542
  -571
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  94
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  333
  231
  224
  219
  215
  212
  210
  208
  208
  208
  192
  194
  196
  199
  203
  208
  213
  219
  225
  232
  240
  249
  258
  268
  279
  290
  303
  316
  330
  345
Discount rate, %
 
  8.50
  8.93
  9.37
  9.84
  10.33
  10.85
  11.39
  11.96
  12.56
  13.19
  13.85
  14.54
  15.26
  16.03
  16.83
  17.67
  18.55
  19.48
  20.46
  21.48
  22.55
  23.68
  24.86
  26.11
  27.41
  28.78
  30.22
  31.73
  33.32
  34.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  307
  195
  171
  150
  131
  114
  98
  84
  72
  60
  46
  38
  31
  25
  20
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. is a self-administered real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company maintains a portfolio of long-term healthcare facilities and mortgages on healthcare facilities located in the United States and the United Kingdom. It operates through the segment, which consists of investments in healthcare-related real estate properties. It provides lease or mortgage financing to qualified operators of skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) and assisted living facilities (ALFs), independent living facilities, rehabilitation and acute care facilities. Its portfolio consists of long-term leases and mortgage agreements. As of December 31, 2016, its portfolio of investments included 996 healthcare facilities located in 42 states and the United Kingdom and operated by 79 third-party operators. As of December 31, 2016, the Company's portfolio consisted of 809 SNFs, 101 ALFs, 16 specialty facilities, one medical office building, fixed rate mortgages on 44 SNFs and two ALFs.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 14.2
Price to Sales 5.8
Price to Book 1.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -12.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 21.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 124.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 99%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 113.2%
Total Debt to Equity 113.2%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Return On Total Capital 4.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Return On Equity 9.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 88.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 86.1%
Operating Margin 56.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 42.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.3%
Net Profit Margin 40.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Payout Ratio 129.5%

OHI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OHI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $901 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Omega Healthcare Investors. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Omega Healthcare Investors. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OHI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.5%, whose default value for OHI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Omega Healthcare Investors, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Omega Healthcare Investors.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OHI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 37.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $53 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OHI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.7% for Omega Healthcare Investors.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Omega Healthcare Investors. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OHI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OHI are equal to 669.6%.

Life of production assets of 25 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Omega Healthcare Investors operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OHI is equal to -10.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3859 million for Omega Healthcare Investors - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 196.805 million for Omega Healthcare Investors is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Omega Healthcare Investors at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $5.2 billion.

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Financial statements of OHI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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