Intrinsic value of Omega Healthcare Investors - OHI

Previous Close

$30.97

  Intrinsic Value

$4.11

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-87%

  Value-price divergence*

-61%

Previous close

$30.97

 
Intrinsic value

$4.11

 
Up/down potential

-87%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-61%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as OHI.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of OHI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  21.10
  8.90
  8.51
  8.16
  7.84
  7.56
  7.30
  7.07
  6.87
  6.68
  6.51
  6.36
  6.22
  6.10
  5.99
  5.89
  5.80
  5.72
  5.65
  5.59
  5.53
  5.47
  5.43
  5.38
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
  5.23
  5.20
  5.18
Revenue, $m
  901
  981
  1,065
  1,152
  1,242
  1,336
  1,433
  1,535
  1,640
  1,750
  1,863
  1,982
  2,105
  2,234
  2,368
  2,507
  2,653
  2,804
  2,963
  3,128
  3,301
  3,482
  3,671
  3,869
  4,075
  4,292
  4,518
  4,756
  5,004
  5,265
  5,538
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  363
  389
  415
  443
  471
  501
  532
  564
  597
  632
  604
  641
  680
  721
  764
  808
  854
  903
  953
  1,006
  1,061
  1,118
  1,179
  1,242
  1,307
  1,376
  1,449
  1,524
  1,604
  1,687
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  54
  56
  57
  59
  60
  61
  63
  65
  66
  68
  70
  71
  73
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  85
  87
  89
  91
  94
  96
  98
  101
  103
  106
  108
  111
Total operating expenses, $m
  391
  417
  445
  472
  502
  531
  562
  595
  629
  663
  700
  674
  712
  753
  796
  841
  887
  935
  986
  1,038
  1,093
  1,150
  1,209
  1,273
  1,338
  1,405
  1,477
  1,552
  1,630
  1,712
  1,798
Operating income, $m
  510
  564
  620
  679
  741
  805
  871
  940
  1,012
  1,086
  1,164
  1,309
  1,393
  1,480
  1,571
  1,667
  1,766
  1,869
  1,978
  2,091
  2,209
  2,332
  2,461
  2,597
  2,738
  2,886
  3,041
  3,204
  3,374
  3,552
  3,740
EBITDA, $m
  777
  891
  970
  1,052
  1,138
  1,227
  1,319
  1,415
  1,515
  1,619
  1,727
  1,840
  1,957
  2,079
  2,206
  2,338
  2,476
  2,621
  2,771
  2,929
  3,093
  3,265
  3,445
  3,633
  3,830
  4,036
  4,251
  4,478
  4,714
  4,963
  5,223
Interest expense (income), $m
  148
  162
  178
  195
  213
  232
  252
  272
  293
  315
  338
  362
  387
  412
  439
  467
  496
  527
  558
  591
  626
  662
  700
  739
  780
  823
  868
  916
  965
  1,017
  1,071
Earnings before tax, $m
  384
  402
  442
  484
  527
  572
  619
  668
  718
  771
  825
  947
  1,006
  1,068
  1,132
  1,200
  1,270
  1,343
  1,419
  1,499
  1,583
  1,670
  1,762
  1,858
  1,958
  2,063
  2,173
  2,288
  2,409
  2,535
  2,668
Tax expense, $m
  1
  109
  119
  131
  142
  155
  167
  180
  194
  208
  223
  256
  272
  288
  306
  324
  343
  363
  383
  405
  427
  451
  476
  502
  529
  557
  587
  618
  650
  685
  720
Net income, $m
  366
  294
  323
  353
  385
  418
  452
  487
  524
  563
  603
  691
  734
  780
  827
  876
  927
  980
  1,036
  1,095
  1,156
  1,219
  1,286
  1,356
  1,429
  1,506
  1,586
  1,670
  1,758
  1,851
  1,948

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  94
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  8,949
  9,620
  10,438
  11,290
  12,175
  13,096
  14,052
  15,046
  16,079
  17,153
  18,269
  19,431
  20,641
  21,900
  23,212
  24,580
  26,006
  27,494
  29,048
  30,670
  32,365
  34,137
  35,990
  37,927
  39,955
  42,077
  44,299
  46,625
  49,062
  51,615
  54,291
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  8,855
  9,620
  10,438
  11,290
  12,175
  13,096
  14,052
  15,046
  16,079
  17,153
  18,269
  19,431
  20,641
  21,900
  23,212
  24,580
  26,006
  27,494
  29,048
  30,670
  32,365
  34,137
  35,990
  37,927
  39,955
  42,077
  44,299
  46,625
  49,062
  51,615
  54,291
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
  0.102
Average production assets, $m
  6,033
  6,570
  7,129
  7,711
  8,316
  8,944
  9,597
  10,276
  10,982
  11,715
  12,478
  13,271
  14,097
  14,958
  15,854
  16,788
  17,762
  18,778
  19,840
  20,948
  22,105
  23,315
  24,581
  25,904
  27,289
  28,738
  30,256
  31,845
  33,509
  35,253
  37,080
Working capital, $m
  0
  -98
  -106
  -115
  -124
  -134
  -143
  -153
  -164
  -175
  -186
  -198
  -211
  -223
  -237
  -251
  -265
  -280
  -296
  -313
  -330
  -348
  -367
  -387
  -408
  -429
  -452
  -476
  -500
  -526
  -554
Total debt, $m
  4,367
  4,808
  5,279
  5,769
  6,278
  6,807
  7,357
  7,928
  8,522
  9,140
  9,782
  10,450
  11,145
  11,869
  12,624
  13,410
  14,231
  15,086
  15,980
  16,912
  17,887
  18,906
  19,971
  21,085
  22,251
  23,471
  24,749
  26,086
  27,488
  28,956
  30,494
Total liabilities, $m
  5,091
  5,531
  6,002
  6,492
  7,001
  7,530
  8,080
  8,651
  9,245
  9,863
  10,505
  11,173
  11,868
  12,592
  13,347
  14,133
  14,954
  15,809
  16,703
  17,635
  18,610
  19,629
  20,694
  21,808
  22,974
  24,194
  25,472
  26,809
  28,211
  29,679
  31,217
Total equity, $m
  3,859
  4,088
  4,436
  4,798
  5,174
  5,566
  5,972
  6,394
  6,833
  7,290
  7,764
  8,258
  8,772
  9,307
  9,865
  10,446
  11,053
  11,685
  12,345
  13,035
  13,755
  14,508
  15,296
  16,119
  16,981
  17,883
  18,827
  19,816
  20,851
  21,937
  23,074
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  8,950
  9,619
  10,438
  11,290
  12,175
  13,096
  14,052
  15,045
  16,078
  17,153
  18,269
  19,431
  20,640
  21,899
  23,212
  24,579
  26,007
  27,494
  29,048
  30,670
  32,365
  34,137
  35,990
  37,927
  39,955
  42,077
  44,299
  46,625
  49,062
  51,616
  54,291
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.132
  1.180
  1.190
  1.200
  1.210
  1.220
  1.230
  1.240
  1.250
  1.250
  1.260
  1.270
  1.270
  1.280
  1.280
  1.280
  1.290
  1.290
  1.290
  1.300
  1.300
  1.300
  1.310
  1.310
  1.310
  1.310
  1.310
  1.320
  1.320
  1.320
  1.320
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425
  0.425

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  366
  294
  323
  353
  385
  418
  452
  487
  524
  563
  603
  691
  734
  780
  827
  876
  927
  980
  1,036
  1,095
  1,156
  1,219
  1,286
  1,356
  1,429
  1,506
  1,586
  1,670
  1,758
  1,851
  1,948
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  267
  327
  349
  373
  397
  422
  448
  475
  504
  533
  563
  531
  564
  598
  634
  672
  710
  751
  794
  838
  884
  933
  983
  1,036
  1,092
  1,150
  1,210
  1,274
  1,340
  1,410
  1,483
Funds from operations, $m
  584
  621
  672
  726
  782
  840
  900
  963
  1,028
  1,096
  1,166
  1,222
  1,298
  1,378
  1,461
  1,547
  1,637
  1,731
  1,830
  1,932
  2,040
  2,152
  2,269
  2,392
  2,521
  2,655
  2,796
  2,944
  3,099
  3,261
  3,431
Change in working capital, $m
  -42
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
Cash from operations, $m
  626
  629
  681
  735
  791
  849
  910
  973
  1,038
  1,107
  1,177
  1,234
  1,311
  1,391
  1,474
  1,561
  1,652
  1,747
  1,846
  1,949
  2,057
  2,170
  2,288
  2,412
  2,541
  2,677
  2,819
  2,968
  3,124
  3,287
  3,458
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -241
  -263
  -285
  -308
  -333
  -358
  -384
  -411
  -439
  -469
  -499
  -531
  -564
  -598
  -634
  -672
  -710
  -751
  -794
  -838
  -884
  -933
  -983
  -1,036
  -1,092
  -1,150
  -1,210
  -1,274
  -1,340
  -1,410
New CAPEX, $m
  -1,029
  -537
  -559
  -582
  -605
  -629
  -653
  -679
  -705
  -733
  -763
  -794
  -826
  -860
  -896
  -934
  -974
  -1,016
  -1,061
  -1,108
  -1,158
  -1,210
  -1,265
  -1,323
  -1,385
  -1,449
  -1,517
  -1,589
  -1,664
  -1,744
  -1,827
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,114
  -778
  -822
  -867
  -913
  -962
  -1,011
  -1,063
  -1,116
  -1,172
  -1,232
  -1,293
  -1,357
  -1,424
  -1,494
  -1,568
  -1,646
  -1,726
  -1,812
  -1,902
  -1,996
  -2,094
  -2,198
  -2,306
  -2,421
  -2,541
  -2,667
  -2,799
  -2,938
  -3,084
  -3,237
Free cash flow, $m
  -488
  -150
  -141
  -132
  -122
  -112
  -101
  -90
  -78
  -66
  -54
  -59
  -46
  -33
  -20
  -7
  6
  20
  33
  47
  61
  76
  90
  105
  121
  136
  152
  169
  185
  203
  221
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  827
  441
  471
  490
  509
  529
  550
  571
  594
  617
  642
  668
  695
  724
  754
  786
  820
  856
  893
  933
  975
  1,019
  1,065
  1,114
  1,166
  1,220
  1,277
  1,338
  1,401
  1,468
  1,538
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -4
  30
  25
  9
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1,050
  471
  496
  499
  509
  529
  550
  571
  594
  617
  642
  668
  695
  724
  754
  786
  820
  856
  893
  933
  975
  1,019
  1,065
  1,114
  1,166
  1,220
  1,277
  1,338
  1,401
  1,468
  1,538
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  562
  321
  355
  366
  387
  417
  449
  482
  516
  551
  588
  609
  649
  691
  734
  779
  826
  875
  927
  980
  1,036
  1,095
  1,156
  1,220
  1,286
  1,356
  1,430
  1,506
  1,587
  1,671
  1,759
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -121
  -323
  -348
  -362
  -376
  -391
  -406
  -422
  -439
  -456
  -475
  -494
  -514
  -535
  -558
  -581
  -606
  -633
  -660
  -690
  -720
  -753
  -787
  -824
  -862
  -902
  -944
  -989
  -1,036
  -1,085
  -1,137
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  94
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  92
  7
  4
  11
  26
  42
  59
  77
  95
  114
  115
  135
  156
  176
  198
  220
  243
  266
  291
  316
  342
  368
  396
  425
  454
  485
  518
  551
  586
  622
Discount rate, %
 
  8.50
  8.93
  9.37
  9.84
  10.33
  10.85
  11.39
  11.96
  12.56
  13.19
  13.85
  14.54
  15.26
  16.03
  16.83
  17.67
  18.55
  19.48
  20.46
  21.48
  22.55
  23.68
  24.86
  26.11
  27.41
  28.78
  30.22
  31.73
  33.32
  34.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  85
  6
  3
  7
  16
  23
  28
  31
  33
  33
  28
  27
  25
  22
  19
  16
  13
  11
  8
  6
  5
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.5
  99.1
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0
  99.0

Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. is a real estate investment firm. The firm invests in the real estate markets of United States. It invests in healthcare facilities, primarily in long-term healthcare facilities in order to create its portfolio. Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. was founded in 1992 and is based in Maryland, United States.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.6
Price to Sales 6.7
Price to Book 1.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -15.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 21.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 124.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 99%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 113.2%
Total Debt to Equity 113.2%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.1%
Return On Total Capital 4.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Return On Equity 9.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 88.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 86.1%
Operating Margin 56.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 60.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 42.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 39.3%
Net Profit Margin 40.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Payout Ratio 129.5%

OHI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OHI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $901 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Omega Healthcare Investors. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Omega Healthcare Investors. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OHI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 8.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.5%, whose default value for OHI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Omega Healthcare Investors, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Omega Healthcare Investors.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OHI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 37.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $53 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OHI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.7% for Omega Healthcare Investors.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Omega Healthcare Investors. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OHI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OHI are equal to 669.6%.

Life of production assets of 25 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Omega Healthcare Investors operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OHI is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $3859 million for Omega Healthcare Investors - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 195.532 million for Omega Healthcare Investors is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Omega Healthcare Investors at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.1 billion.

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Financial statements of OHI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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