Intrinsic value of Oceaneering International - OII

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$21.49

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of OII stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -25.82
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,272
  2,317
  2,371
  2,432
  2,500
  2,576
  2,659
  2,750
  2,848
  2,953
  3,067
  3,188
  3,317
  3,455
  3,601
  3,757
  3,921
  4,096
  4,280
  4,475
  4,680
  4,897
  5,126
  5,367
  5,621
  5,889
  6,171
  6,467
  6,779
  7,107
  7,453
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,429
  1,461
  1,497
  1,538
  1,583
  1,633
  1,687
  1,746
  1,809
  1,877
  1,905
  1,982
  2,064
  2,152
  2,244
  2,343
  2,447
  2,557
  2,673
  2,796
  2,926
  3,063
  3,207
  3,358
  3,518
  3,687
  3,864
  4,050
  4,246
  4,453
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  839
  860
  882
  904
  927
  950
  974
  998
  1,023
  1,048
  1,075
  1,101
  1,129
  1,157
  1,186
  1,216
  1,246
  1,277
  1,309
  1,342
  1,376
  1,410
  1,445
  1,481
  1,518
  1,556
  1,595
  1,635
  1,676
  1,718
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,201
  2,268
  2,321
  2,379
  2,442
  2,510
  2,583
  2,661
  2,744
  2,832
  2,925
  2,980
  3,083
  3,193
  3,309
  3,430
  3,559
  3,693
  3,834
  3,982
  4,138
  4,302
  4,473
  4,652
  4,839
  5,036
  5,243
  5,459
  5,685
  5,922
  6,171
Operating income, $m
  71
  49
  49
  52
  58
  66
  76
  89
  104
  122
  142
  209
  234
  262
  292
  326
  363
  402
  445
  492
  542
  596
  653
  715
  781
  852
  928
  1,008
  1,094
  1,185
  1,282
EBITDA, $m
  321
  286
  291
  299
  310
  324
  341
  362
  385
  411
  441
  473
  509
  549
  592
  638
  688
  743
  801
  864
  931
  1,002
  1,079
  1,161
  1,248
  1,341
  1,440
  1,545
  1,657
  1,775
  1,901
Interest expense (income), $m
  29
  29
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  40
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  57
  60
  64
  68
  73
  77
  82
  87
  93
  98
  104
  111
  117
  124
  132
  140
  148
  156
Earnings before tax, $m
  43
  20
  19
  21
  24
  31
  39
  49
  62
  77
  94
  158
  180
  205
  232
  262
  294
  330
  368
  410
  455
  503
  555
  611
  671
  735
  803
  876
  954
  1,037
  1,126
Tax expense, $m
  18
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  10
  13
  17
  21
  25
  43
  49
  55
  63
  71
  79
  89
  99
  111
  123
  136
  150
  165
  181
  198
  217
  237
  258
  280
  304
Net income, $m
  25
  14
  14
  15
  18
  22
  28
  36
  45
  56
  69
  116
  132
  150
  169
  191
  215
  241
  269
  299
  332
  367
  405
  446
  490
  536
  586
  640
  697
  757
  822

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  450
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,130
  2,733
  2,796
  2,868
  2,948
  3,038
  3,136
  3,242
  3,358
  3,483
  3,616
  3,759
  3,912
  4,074
  4,247
  4,430
  4,624
  4,830
  5,047
  5,277
  5,519
  5,775
  6,045
  6,329
  6,629
  6,944
  7,277
  7,626
  7,994
  8,381
  8,789
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,680
  2,733
  2,796
  2,868
  2,948
  3,038
  3,136
  3,242
  3,358
  3,483
  3,616
  3,759
  3,912
  4,074
  4,247
  4,430
  4,624
  4,830
  5,047
  5,277
  5,519
  5,775
  6,045
  6,329
  6,629
  6,944
  7,277
  7,626
  7,994
  8,381
  8,789
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
  0.848
Average production assets, $m
  1,301
  1,328
  1,358
  1,393
  1,433
  1,476
  1,524
  1,576
  1,632
  1,692
  1,757
  1,827
  1,901
  1,980
  2,064
  2,153
  2,247
  2,347
  2,452
  2,564
  2,682
  2,806
  2,937
  3,075
  3,221
  3,374
  3,536
  3,706
  3,884
  4,073
  4,270
Working capital, $m
  755
  311
  318
  326
  335
  345
  356
  368
  382
  396
  411
  427
  445
  463
  483
  503
  525
  549
  574
  600
  627
  656
  687
  719
  753
  789
  827
  867
  908
  952
  999
Total debt, $m
  793
  825
  863
  906
  955
  1,009
  1,068
  1,132
  1,202
  1,277
  1,357
  1,443
  1,535
  1,633
  1,737
  1,847
  1,964
  2,087
  2,218
  2,357
  2,502
  2,657
  2,819
  2,990
  3,170
  3,360
  3,560
  3,771
  3,993
  4,226
  4,471
Total liabilities, $m
  1,614
  1,645
  1,683
  1,726
  1,775
  1,829
  1,888
  1,952
  2,022
  2,097
  2,177
  2,263
  2,355
  2,453
  2,557
  2,667
  2,784
  2,907
  3,038
  3,177
  3,322
  3,477
  3,639
  3,810
  3,990
  4,180
  4,380
  4,591
  4,813
  5,046
  5,291
Total equity, $m
  1,517
  1,088
  1,113
  1,141
  1,173
  1,209
  1,248
  1,290
  1,336
  1,386
  1,439
  1,496
  1,557
  1,622
  1,690
  1,763
  1,840
  1,922
  2,009
  2,100
  2,197
  2,298
  2,406
  2,519
  2,638
  2,764
  2,896
  3,035
  3,182
  3,336
  3,498
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,131
  2,733
  2,796
  2,867
  2,948
  3,038
  3,136
  3,242
  3,358
  3,483
  3,616
  3,759
  3,912
  4,075
  4,247
  4,430
  4,624
  4,829
  5,047
  5,277
  5,519
  5,775
  6,045
  6,329
  6,628
  6,944
  7,276
  7,626
  7,995
  8,382
  8,789
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.523
  0.760
  0.780
  0.790
  0.810
  0.830
  0.860
  0.880
  0.900
  0.920
  0.940
  0.960
  0.990
  1.010
  1.030
  1.050
  1.070
  1.090
  1.100
  1.120
  1.140
  1.160
  1.170
  1.190
  1.200
  1.220
  1.230
  1.240
  1.250
  1.270
  1.280
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398
  0.398

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  25
  14
  14
  15
  18
  22
  28
  36
  45
  56
  69
  116
  132
  150
  169
  191
  215
  241
  269
  299
  332
  367
  405
  446
  490
  536
  586
  640
  697
  757
  822
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  250
  237
  241
  246
  252
  258
  265
  273
  281
  290
  299
  265
  275
  287
  299
  312
  326
  340
  355
  372
  389
  407
  426
  446
  467
  489
  512
  537
  563
  590
  619
Funds from operations, $m
  392
  251
  255
  261
  270
  281
  294
  309
  326
  346
  368
  380
  407
  437
  468
  503
  541
  581
  624
  671
  721
  774
  831
  892
  956
  1,025
  1,099
  1,177
  1,260
  1,347
  1,441
Change in working capital, $m
  51
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
Cash from operations, $m
  341
  185
  248
  253
  261
  270
  282
  297
  313
  332
  353
  364
  390
  418
  449
  482
  518
  558
  600
  645
  693
  745
  800
  859
  922
  990
  1,061
  1,137
  1,218
  1,303
  1,394
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -189
  -192
  -197
  -202
  -208
  -214
  -221
  -228
  -236
  -245
  -255
  -265
  -275
  -287
  -299
  -312
  -326
  -340
  -355
  -372
  -389
  -407
  -426
  -446
  -467
  -489
  -512
  -537
  -563
  -590
New CAPEX, $m
  -112
  -27
  -31
  -35
  -39
  -43
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -74
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -198
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -169
  -216
  -223
  -232
  -241
  -251
  -262
  -273
  -284
  -297
  -310
  -324
  -339
  -354
  -371
  -388
  -406
  -426
  -446
  -467
  -490
  -513
  -538
  -564
  -592
  -620
  -650
  -682
  -716
  -751
  -788
Free cash flow, $m
  172
  -30
  25
  21
  20
  19
  21
  24
  29
  35
  43
  40
  51
  64
  78
  94
  112
  132
  154
  178
  204
  232
  263
  296
  331
  369
  411
  455
  502
  552
  606
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  32
  38
  43
  49
  54
  59
  64
  70
  75
  80
  86
  92
  98
  104
  110
  117
  124
  131
  138
  146
  154
  162
  171
  180
  190
  200
  211
  222
  233
  245
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -3
  32
  38
  43
  49
  54
  59
  64
  70
  75
  80
  86
  92
  98
  104
  110
  117
  124
  131
  138
  146
  154
  162
  171
  180
  190
  200
  211
  222
  233
  245
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  159
  2
  63
  65
  68
  73
  80
  88
  98
  110
  123
  126
  143
  161
  182
  204
  229
  256
  285
  316
  350
  386
  425
  467
  512
  559
  611
  665
  723
  785
  852
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  62
  -21
  -25
  -29
  -32
  -36
  -39
  -43
  -46
  -50
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
  -154
  -162
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  450
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  431
  38
  36
  36
  38
  41
  46
  52
  60
  70
  69
  82
  97
  113
  132
  152
  174
  198
  225
  253
  284
  318
  354
  392
  434
  478
  526
  577
  631
  689
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  413
  35
  31
  30
  29
  30
  31
  33
  35
  37
  33
  35
  37
  38
  39
  39
  38
  36
  35
  32
  29
  26
  23
  20
  17
  14
  11
  9
  7
  5
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Oceaneering International, Inc. provides engineered services and products to the offshore oil and gas industry worldwide. The company’s Remotely Operated Vehicles (ROVs) segment offers submersible vehicles for drilling support in the oil and gas industry; and drill support, vessel-based inspection, maintenance and repair, installation and construction support, pipeline inspection and surveys, and subsea production facility operation and maintenance services. As of December 31, 2015, this segment owned a fleet of 315 ROVs. Its Subsea Products segment constructs various subsea hardware products comprising subsea umbilicals utilizing thermoplastic hoses and steel tubes; tooling, and ROV tooling and subsea work packages; production control equipment; installation and workover control systems; clamp connectors; pipeline connectors and repair systems; subsea and topside control valves; and subsea chemical injection valves. The company’s Subsea Projects segment performs subsea oilfield hardware installation and inspection, maintenance, and repair services; serves deepwater projects and shallow water projects; and performs subsea intervention and hardware installation services, such as subsea well tie-backs, pipeline/flow line tie-ins and repairs, pipeline crossings, umbilical and other subsea equipment installations, and subsea intervention, as well as inspection, maintenance, and repair services. Its Asset Integrity segment offers asset integrity services to enhance the reliability and safety of their facilities onshore and offshore, as well as third-party inspections to customers in the oil and gas, petrochemical, and power generation industries; and first-pass integrity evaluation and assessment, and nondestructive testing services. The company’s Advanced Technologies segment offers project management, engineering services, and equipment for applications in non-oilfield markets. Oceaneering International, Inc. was founded in 1964 and is based in Houston, Texas.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Oceaneering International (OII)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 84.3
Price to Sales 0.9
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -25.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -44%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -21.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 52.3%
Total Debt to Equity 52.3%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Total Capital 1.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Return On Equity 1.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 12.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.5%
EBITDA Margin 14.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 19.1%
Operating Margin 3.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Net Profit Margin 1.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Effective Tax Rate 41.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.8%
Payout Ratio 376%

OII stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OII stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2272 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Oceaneering International. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Oceaneering International. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OII stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for OII is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Oceaneering International, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Oceaneering International.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OII stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 61.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $819 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OII stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.7% for Oceaneering International.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Oceaneering International. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OII stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OII are equal to 57.3%.

Life of production assets of 6.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Oceaneering International operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OII is equal to 13.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1517 million for Oceaneering International - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 95.741 million for Oceaneering International is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Oceaneering International at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.1 billion.


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Stock chart of OII Financial statements of OII Annual reports of OII
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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