Intrinsic value of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings - OLLI

Previous Close

$43.75

  Intrinsic Value

$55.26

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+26%

  Value-price divergence*

-67%

Previous close

$43.75

 
Intrinsic value

$55.26

 
Up/down potential

+26%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence*

-67%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of OLLI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  16.80
  16.50
  15.35
  14.32
  13.38
  12.55
  11.79
  11.11
  10.50
  9.95
  9.46
  9.01
  8.61
  8.25
  7.92
  7.63
  7.37
  7.13
  6.92
  6.73
  6.55
  6.40
  6.26
  6.13
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.74
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
Revenue, $m
  890
  1,037
  1,196
  1,367
  1,550
  1,745
  1,950
  2,167
  2,395
  2,633
  2,882
  3,142
  3,412
  3,693
  3,986
  4,290
  4,606
  4,935
  5,276
  5,631
  6,000
  6,384
  6,783
  7,199
  7,633
  8,084
  8,555
  9,047
  9,560
  10,095
  10,655
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  786
  900
  1,022
  1,153
  1,292
  1,439
  1,594
  1,757
  1,927
  2,105
  2,246
  2,440
  2,641
  2,850
  3,067
  3,293
  3,528
  3,772
  4,026
  4,290
  4,565
  4,850
  5,148
  5,457
  5,780
  6,117
  6,468
  6,835
  7,218
  7,618
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  113
  116
  118
  121
  124
  128
  131
  134
  137
  141
  144
  148
  152
  155
  159
  163
  167
  172
  176
  180
  185
  189
  194
  199
  204
  209
  214
  220
  225
  231
Total operating expenses, $m
  788
  899
  1,016
  1,140
  1,274
  1,416
  1,567
  1,725
  1,891
  2,064
  2,246
  2,390
  2,588
  2,793
  3,005
  3,226
  3,456
  3,695
  3,944
  4,202
  4,470
  4,750
  5,039
  5,342
  5,656
  5,984
  6,326
  6,682
  7,055
  7,443
  7,849
Operating income, $m
  102
  138
  181
  227
  276
  328
  384
  442
  504
  569
  636
  751
  824
  901
  981
  1,063
  1,149
  1,239
  1,332
  1,429
  1,530
  1,635
  1,744
  1,858
  1,976
  2,100
  2,229
  2,364
  2,505
  2,652
  2,806
EBITDA, $m
  112
  194
  238
  285
  336
  391
  449
  509
  573
  640
  710
  784
  860
  939
  1,022
  1,108
  1,197
  1,290
  1,387
  1,487
  1,592
  1,701
  1,814
  1,932
  2,056
  2,184
  2,318
  2,458
  2,604
  2,757
  2,916
Interest expense (income), $m
  5
  7
  9
  11
  14
  17
  19
  23
  26
  29
  33
  37
  40
  45
  49
  53
  58
  62
  67
  73
  78
  83
  89
  95
  102
  108
  115
  122
  129
  137
  145
Earnings before tax, $m
  96
  132
  172
  215
  262
  312
  364
  420
  478
  539
  603
  714
  784
  856
  932
  1,010
  1,092
  1,177
  1,265
  1,356
  1,452
  1,551
  1,655
  1,762
  1,875
  1,992
  2,114
  2,242
  2,376
  2,515
  2,661
Tax expense, $m
  36
  36
  46
  58
  71
  84
  98
  113
  129
  146
  163
  193
  212
  231
  252
  273
  295
  318
  341
  366
  392
  419
  447
  476
  506
  538
  571
  605
  641
  679
  718
Net income, $m
  60
  96
  126
  157
  191
  228
  266
  306
  349
  394
  440
  522
  572
  625
  680
  737
  797
  859
  923
  990
  1,060
  1,132
  1,208
  1,287
  1,369
  1,454
  1,544
  1,637
  1,734
  1,836
  1,942

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  99
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,039
  1,095
  1,263
  1,444
  1,637
  1,842
  2,060
  2,288
  2,529
  2,780
  3,043
  3,317
  3,603
  3,900
  4,209
  4,530
  4,864
  5,211
  5,571
  5,946
  6,336
  6,741
  7,163
  7,602
  8,060
  8,537
  9,034
  9,553
  10,095
  10,660
  11,251
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  940
  1,095
  1,263
  1,444
  1,637
  1,842
  2,060
  2,288
  2,529
  2,780
  3,043
  3,317
  3,603
  3,900
  4,209
  4,530
  4,864
  5,211
  5,571
  5,946
  6,336
  6,741
  7,163
  7,602
  8,060
  8,537
  9,034
  9,553
  10,095
  10,660
  11,251
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
  0.947
Average production assets, $m
  277
  322
  372
  425
  482
  543
  607
  674
  745
  819
  896
  977
  1,061
  1,149
  1,240
  1,334
  1,433
  1,535
  1,641
  1,751
  1,866
  1,985
  2,110
  2,239
  2,374
  2,514
  2,661
  2,814
  2,973
  3,140
  3,314
Working capital, $m
  208
  133
  153
  175
  198
  223
  250
  277
  307
  337
  369
  402
  437
  473
  510
  549
  590
  632
  675
  721
  768
  817
  868
  922
  977
  1,035
  1,095
  1,158
  1,224
  1,292
  1,364
Total debt, $m
  194
  252
  320
  394
  472
  556
  644
  737
  835
  938
  1,045
  1,156
  1,272
  1,393
  1,519
  1,650
  1,786
  1,927
  2,074
  2,226
  2,385
  2,550
  2,721
  2,900
  3,086
  3,281
  3,483
  3,694
  3,915
  4,145
  4,385
Total liabilities, $m
  388
  446
  514
  588
  666
  750
  838
  931
  1,029
  1,132
  1,239
  1,350
  1,466
  1,587
  1,713
  1,844
  1,980
  2,121
  2,268
  2,420
  2,579
  2,744
  2,915
  3,094
  3,280
  3,475
  3,677
  3,888
  4,109
  4,339
  4,579
Total equity, $m
  651
  649
  749
  856
  971
  1,092
  1,221
  1,357
  1,500
  1,649
  1,805
  1,967
  2,137
  2,313
  2,496
  2,686
  2,884
  3,090
  3,304
  3,526
  3,757
  3,998
  4,248
  4,508
  4,780
  5,062
  5,357
  5,665
  5,986
  6,321
  6,672
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,039
  1,095
  1,263
  1,444
  1,637
  1,842
  2,059
  2,288
  2,529
  2,781
  3,044
  3,317
  3,603
  3,900
  4,209
  4,530
  4,864
  5,211
  5,572
  5,946
  6,336
  6,742
  7,163
  7,602
  8,060
  8,537
  9,034
  9,553
  10,095
  10,660
  11,251
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.298
  0.390
  0.430
  0.460
  0.490
  0.510
  0.530
  0.540
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
  0.630
  0.630
  0.630
  0.640
  0.640
  0.640
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.650
  0.660
  0.660
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.587
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593
  0.593

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  60
  96
  126
  157
  191
  228
  266
  306
  349
  394
  440
  522
  572
  625
  680
  737
  797
  859
  923
  990
  1,060
  1,132
  1,208
  1,287
  1,369
  1,454
  1,544
  1,637
  1,734
  1,836
  1,942
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  10
  55
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  69
  72
  74
  33
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  75
  79
  84
  89
  94
  99
  105
  110
Funds from operations, $m
  63
  151
  182
  216
  252
  290
  331
  373
  418
  465
  515
  554
  608
  663
  722
  782
  845
  910
  978
  1,049
  1,122
  1,199
  1,278
  1,361
  1,448
  1,538
  1,632
  1,731
  1,833
  1,941
  2,053
Change in working capital, $m
  -4
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
Cash from operations, $m
  67
  133
  162
  194
  228
  265
  304
  346
  389
  435
  483
  521
  573
  627
  684
  743
  804
  868
  934
  1,003
  1,075
  1,149
  1,227
  1,308
  1,392
  1,480
  1,572
  1,668
  1,768
  1,872
  1,981
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -48
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -70
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -105
New CAPEX, $m
  -16
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -95
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -110
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -159
  -167
  -174
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -16
  -55
  -60
  -65
  -71
  -76
  -82
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -104
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -142
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -210
  -219
  -230
  -242
  -253
  -266
  -279
Free cash flow, $m
  51
  77
  102
  128
  157
  189
  222
  258
  296
  336
  378
  410
  456
  505
  555
  607
  661
  718
  777
  838
  902
  968
  1,037
  1,108
  1,183
  1,261
  1,342
  1,426
  1,514
  1,606
  1,703
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -5
  63
  68
  74
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
  116
  121
  126
  131
  136
  141
  147
  153
  159
  165
  172
  179
  186
  194
  202
  211
  220
  230
  240
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  13
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  18
  63
  68
  74
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  102
  107
  112
  116
  121
  126
  131
  136
  141
  147
  153
  159
  165
  172
  179
  186
  194
  202
  211
  220
  230
  240
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  68
  140
  170
  202
  236
  272
  311
  351
  394
  438
  485
  522
  573
  626
  681
  738
  797
  859
  924
  991
  1,060
  1,133
  1,208
  1,287
  1,369
  1,455
  1,544
  1,637
  1,735
  1,837
  1,943
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -89
  -92
  -100
  -107
  -115
  -122
  -129
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -156
  -163
  -169
  -176
  -183
  -190
  -198
  -206
  -214
  -222
  -231
  -240
  -250
  -260
  -271
  -283
  -295
  -308
  -321
  -335
  -350
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  94
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  142
  71
  95
  121
  151
  182
  216
  251
  289
  329
  359
  403
  449
  497
  547
  599
  654
  710
  768
  829
  892
  958
  1,027
  1,098
  1,172
  1,249
  1,330
  1,414
  1,501
  1,593
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  136
  65
  83
  100
  117
  132
  146
  157
  166
  173
  171
  172
  171
  167
  161
  152
  142
  131
  118
  105
  92
  80
  67
  56
  46
  36
  29
  22
  16
  12
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. operates as a merchandise retailer of various brand name products. The company offers food products, housewares, books and stationery products, bed and bath products, floor coverings, hardware products, and toys; and other products, including electronics, personal health care, candy, clothing, sporting goods, pet products, luggage, automotive, seasonal, furniture, and lawn and garden products. As of December 7, 2016, it operated 234 Ollie’s Bargain Outlet retail stores across 19 states in the United States. The company was formerly known as Bargain Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. in March 2015. Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 44.3
Price to Sales 3
Price to Book 4.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 39.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 52.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 16.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 14.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 20
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 29%
Total Debt to Equity 29.8%
Interest Coverage 20
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Return On Total Capital 7.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Return On Equity 9.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 40.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40%
EBITDA Margin 12.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.5%
Operating Margin 11.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 10.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Net Profit Margin 6.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Effective Tax Rate 37.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

OLLI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OLLI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $890 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OLLI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 16.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for OLLI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OLLI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 76.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $110 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OLLI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OLLI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OLLI are equal to 31.1%.

Life of production assets of 72.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OLLI is equal to 12.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $651 million for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 58.713 million for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.6 billion.

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Stock chart of OLLI Financial statements of OLLI Annual reports of OLLI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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