Intrinsic value of One Liberty Properties - OLP

Previous Close

$23.69

  Intrinsic Value

$4.09

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-83%

  Value-price divergence*

+2%

Previous close

$23.69

 
Intrinsic value

$4.09

 
Up/down potential

-83%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+2%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as OLP.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of OLP stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.58
  12.50
  11.75
  11.08
  10.47
  9.92
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.35
  7.12
  6.91
  6.72
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.13
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
Revenue, $m
  71
  80
  89
  99
  110
  120
  132
  144
  156
  169
  182
  196
  210
  225
  241
  257
  274
  291
  310
  329
  348
  369
  390
  413
  436
  461
  486
  513
  541
  570
  600
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  40
  45
  50
  56
  61
  67
  73
  79
  86
  92
  99
  107
  114
  122
  130
  139
  148
  157
  167
  177
  187
  198
  209
  221
  234
  246
  260
  274
  289
  304
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  39
  40
  45
  50
  56
  61
  67
  73
  79
  86
  92
  99
  107
  114
  122
  130
  139
  148
  157
  167
  177
  187
  198
  209
  221
  234
  246
  260
  274
  289
  304
Operating income, $m
  32
  39
  44
  49
  54
  59
  65
  71
  77
  83
  90
  97
  104
  111
  119
  127
  135
  144
  153
  162
  172
  182
  192
  204
  215
  227
  240
  253
  267
  281
  296
EBITDA, $m
  50
  63
  71
  79
  87
  95
  104
  114
  124
  134
  144
  155
  167
  179
  191
  204
  217
  231
  245
  260
  276
  292
  309
  327
  346
  365
  385
  406
  428
  451
  476
Interest expense (income), $m
  17
  18
  20
  23
  26
  28
  31
  35
  38
  41
  45
  48
  52
  56
  60
  65
  69
  74
  79
  84
  89
  94
  100
  106
  112
  118
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
Earnings before tax, $m
  24
  22
  24
  26
  28
  31
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  98
  103
  109
  115
  121
  127
  134
  141
Tax expense, $m
  0
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
Net income, $m
  24
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  17
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  733
  807
  902
  1,001
  1,106
  1,216
  1,331
  1,450
  1,575
  1,704
  1,839
  1,979
  2,125
  2,276
  2,433
  2,597
  2,767
  2,943
  3,127
  3,319
  3,518
  3,726
  3,943
  4,170
  4,406
  4,652
  4,910
  5,179
  5,461
  5,755
  6,064
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  716
  807
  902
  1,001
  1,106
  1,216
  1,331
  1,450
  1,575
  1,704
  1,839
  1,979
  2,125
  2,276
  2,433
  2,597
  2,767
  2,943
  3,127
  3,319
  3,518
  3,726
  3,943
  4,170
  4,406
  4,652
  4,910
  5,179
  5,461
  5,755
  6,064
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
  0.099
Average production assets, $m
  638
  717
  801
  890
  983
  1,081
  1,183
  1,289
  1,400
  1,515
  1,635
  1,759
  1,889
  2,023
  2,163
  2,308
  2,459
  2,616
  2,780
  2,950
  3,128
  3,312
  3,505
  3,706
  3,916
  4,136
  4,365
  4,604
  4,854
  5,116
  5,390
Working capital, $m
  0
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
Total debt, $m
  404
  450
  507
  568
  631
  698
  767
  840
  915
  994
  1,076
  1,160
  1,249
  1,340
  1,436
  1,535
  1,638
  1,745
  1,856
  1,972
  2,093
  2,219
  2,351
  2,488
  2,631
  2,780
  2,937
  3,100
  3,270
  3,449
  3,636
Total liabilities, $m
  443
  489
  546
  607
  670
  737
  806
  879
  954
  1,033
  1,115
  1,199
  1,288
  1,379
  1,475
  1,574
  1,677
  1,784
  1,895
  2,011
  2,132
  2,258
  2,390
  2,527
  2,670
  2,819
  2,976
  3,139
  3,309
  3,488
  3,675
Total equity, $m
  290
  318
  355
  395
  436
  479
  524
  571
  620
  672
  725
  780
  837
  897
  959
  1,023
  1,090
  1,160
  1,232
  1,308
  1,386
  1,468
  1,554
  1,643
  1,736
  1,833
  1,935
  2,041
  2,152
  2,268
  2,389
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  733
  807
  901
  1,002
  1,106
  1,216
  1,330
  1,450
  1,574
  1,705
  1,840
  1,979
  2,125
  2,276
  2,434
  2,597
  2,767
  2,944
  3,127
  3,319
  3,518
  3,726
  3,944
  4,170
  4,406
  4,652
  4,911
  5,180
  5,461
  5,756
  6,064
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.393
  1.420
  1.430
  1.440
  1.450
  1.460
  1.460
  1.470
  1.480
  1.480
  1.480
  1.490
  1.490
  1.490
  1.500
  1.500
  1.500
  1.500
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.510
  1.520
  1.520
  1.520
  1.520
  1.520
  1.520
  1.520
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394
  0.394

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  24
  16
  17
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  29
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  84
  88
  93
  98
  103
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  18
  24
  27
  30
  33
  36
  39
  43
  47
  51
  54
  59
  63
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  93
  98
  104
  110
  117
  124
  131
  138
  145
  153
  162
  171
  180
Funds from operations, $m
  29
  40
  44
  49
  54
  59
  64
  69
  75
  81
  87
  94
  101
  108
  115
  122
  130
  138
  147
  156
  165
  174
  184
  195
  206
  217
  229
  242
  255
  268
  282
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  31
  41
  45
  50
  55
  60
  65
  71
  76
  82
  89
  95
  102
  109
  116
  124
  132
  140
  149
  158
  167
  176
  187
  197
  208
  220
  232
  244
  257
  271
  285
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -21
  -24
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -39
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -59
  -63
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -110
  -117
  -124
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -153
  -162
  -171
New CAPEX, $m
  -123
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -170
  -177
  -185
  -193
  -201
  -210
  -219
  -229
  -239
  -250
  -262
  -274
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -81
  -101
  -108
  -116
  -123
  -131
  -138
  -145
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -178
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -239
  -251
  -263
  -275
  -289
  -303
  -318
  -334
  -350
  -367
  -384
  -403
  -424
  -445
Free cash flow, $m
  -50
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -77
  -79
  -82
  -84
  -86
  -88
  -91
  -93
  -96
  -99
  -102
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -117
  -121
  -125
  -130
  -135
  -141
  -146
  -153
  -159
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  57
  55
  57
  61
  64
  67
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  95
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  171
  178
  187
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  29
  20
  20
  20
  21
  21
  21
  21
  21
  20
  20
  20
  20
  20
  19
  19
  19
  19
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  18
  19
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  82
  75
  77
  81
  85
  88
  90
  93
  96
  99
  102
  105
  108
  112
  114
  118
  122
  126
  129
  134
  139
  144
  149
  155
  161
  167
  174
  181
  189
  196
  206
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  33
  15
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -29
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -13
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
Discount rate, %
 
  9.60
  10.08
  10.58
  11.11
  11.67
  12.25
  12.86
  13.51
  14.18
  14.89
  15.64
  16.42
  17.24
  18.10
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.00
  23.10
  24.26
  25.47
  26.75
  28.08
  29.49
  30.96
  32.51
  34.13
  35.84
  37.63
  39.51
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -12
  -19
  -18
  -17
  -15
  -14
  -12
  -11
  -10
  -8
  -7
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  95.3
  91.3
  87.9
  84.8
  82.1
  79.8
  77.6
  75.8
  74.1
  72.6
  71.2
  70.0
  68.9
  67.9
  67.0
  66.1
  65.4
  64.7
  64.0
  63.4
  62.8
  62.3
  61.8
  61.4
  60.9
  60.5
  60.1
  59.8
  59.4
  59.1

One Liberty Properties, Inc., a real estate investment trust (REIT), engages in the acquisition, ownership, and management of commercial real estate properties in the United States. The company's property portfolio includes retail furniture stores, as well as industrial, office, flex, health and fitness, and other properties. As of March 31, 2008, it owned 67 properties; holds a 50% tenancy in common interest in 1 property; and owns 4 properties through joint ventures. The company has elected to be treated as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income tax, if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its shareholders. One Liberty Properties was founded in 1982 and is based in Great Neck, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  One Liberty Properties (OLP)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 17.4
Price to Sales 5.9
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.4
Price to Free Cash Flow -4.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 73.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 136.2%
Total Debt to Equity 139.3%
Interest Coverage 2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Return On Total Capital 3.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Return On Equity 8.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.5%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 85.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 89.5%
EBITDA Margin 83.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 84.4%
Operating Margin 45.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 48.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 33.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.6%
Net Profit Margin 33.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 116.7%

OLP stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OLP stock intrinsic value calculation we used $71 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by One Liberty Properties. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of One Liberty Properties. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OLP stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.6%, whose default value for OLP is calculated based on our internal credit rating of One Liberty Properties, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of One Liberty Properties.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OLP stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 50.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OLP stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.5% for One Liberty Properties.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for One Liberty Properties. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OLP stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OLP are equal to 897.9%.

Life of production assets of 35.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in One Liberty Properties operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OLP is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $290 million for One Liberty Properties - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 17.737 million for One Liberty Properties is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of One Liberty Properties at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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KMX CarMax 63.97 40.99  sell
URBN Urban Outfitte 19.27 30.33  str.buy
CVS CVS Health 77.66 157.68  str.buy
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ODP Office Depot 4.12 6.41  hold

COMPANY NEWS

▶ One Liberty Properties reports 2Q results   [Aug-07-17 07:35PM  Associated Press]
▶ One Liberty Properties Announces Dividend   [Jun-14-17 12:30PM  Marketwired]
▶ One Liberty Properties reports 1Q results   [May-10-17 05:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ One Liberty Properties reports 4Q results   [Mar-10-17 04:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ One Liberty Properties Announces Dividend   [Dec-07-16 01:25PM  Marketwired]
▶ One Liberty Properties Enhances Credit Facility   [Nov-09-16 05:31PM  Marketwired]
▶ One Liberty Properties Announces Dividend   [Sep-12-16 10:35AM  Marketwired]
▶ When Interest Rates Rise, REITs Are Safer Than Bonds   [Aug-26-16 09:00AM  at Forbes]
▶ Safe Havens Outperforming Stocks   [Jul-20-16 04:00PM  at Forbes]
▶ One Liberty Properties Announces Dividend   [11:30AM  Marketwired]
▶ One Liberty Properties Announces Dividend   [Mar-10-16 12:24PM  Marketwired]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Buying Bank Mutual Corporation (BKMU)   [Dec-08  10:34AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Hedge Funds Are Buying Spok Holdings, Inc. (SPOK)   [Nov-29  07:29AM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of OLP Financial statements of OLP
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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