Intrinsic value of OncoMed Pharmaceuticals - OMED

Previous Close

$3.78

  Intrinsic Value

$0.00

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

Previous close

$3.78

 
Intrinsic value

$0.00

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of OMED stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -3.85
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  109
  112
  115
  118
  121
  125
  129
  134
  139
  144
  150
  156
  163
  170
  177
  185
  193
  202
  211
  220
  231
  241
  253
  265
  277
  291
  305
  319
  335
  351
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  129
  109
  112
  115
  118
  121
  125
  129
  134
  139
  144
  150
  156
  163
  170
  177
  185
  193
  202
  211
  220
  231
  241
  253
  265
  277
  291
  305
  319
  335
  351
Operating income, $m
  -103
  -84
  -86
  -88
  -90
  -93
  -96
  -99
  -103
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -142
  -148
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -177
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -213
  -223
  -233
  -245
  -257
  -269
EBITDA, $m
  -101
  -83
  -85
  -87
  -89
  -92
  -95
  -98
  -102
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -210
  -220
  -231
  -242
  -254
  -266
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
Earnings before tax, $m
  -103
  -84
  -78
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -227
  -238
  -250
  -262
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -103
  -84
  -78
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -227
  -238
  -250
  -262

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  185
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  195
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.500
  2.600
  2.600
  2.455
  2.545
  2.545
  2.417
  2.500
  2.385
  2.462
  2.615
  2.500
  2.467
  2.533
  2.500
  2.412
  2.529
  2.500
  2.474
  2.450
  2.429
  2.455
  2.435
  2.458
  2.480
  2.500
  2.519
  2.536
  2.500
  2.516
  2.485
Average production assets, $m
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
Working capital, $m
  134
  -52
  -53
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -167
Total debt, $m
  0
  -209
  -209
  -208
  -208
  -208
  -207
  -207
  -207
  -206
  -206
  -205
  -205
  -204
  -204
  -203
  -202
  -202
  -201
  -200
  -199
  -199
  -198
  -197
  -196
  -195
  -194
  -192
  -191
  -190
  -188
Total liabilities, $m
  219
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
Total equity, $m
  -23
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  196
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  -204.730
  -199.920
  -194.690
  -189.110
  -183.280
  -177.270
  -171.130
  -164.930
  -158.710
  -152.520
  -146.370
  -140.310
  -134.360
  -128.530
  -122.840
  -117.310
  -111.930
  -106.730
  -101.690
  -96.830
  -92.140
  -87.630
  -83.280
  -79.110
  -75.110
  -71.270
  -67.590
  -64.060
  -60.690
  -57.460
Adjusted equity ratio
  -20.800
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -103
  -84
  -78
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -227
  -238
  -250
  -262
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
Funds from operations, $m
  16
  -83
  -77
  -79
  -82
  -85
  -88
  -91
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -203
  -213
  -224
  -235
  -247
  -259
Change in working capital, $m
  53
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
Cash from operations, $m
  -37
  -82
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -171
  -179
  -188
  -197
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -240
  -252
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
New CAPEX, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -30
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
Free cash flow, $m
  -67
  -83
  -77
  -79
  -82
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -150
  -158
  -165
  -173
  -182
  -191
  -200
  -210
  -220
  -231
  -243
  -255
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -209
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  65
  293
  78
  80
  83
  86
  89
  92
  96
  99
  104
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  134
  141
  147
  155
  162
  170
  178
  187
  196
  206
  216
  227
  238
  250
  262
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  65
  84
  78
  80
  83
  86
  89
  92
  96
  99
  104
  108
  114
  119
  124
  130
  135
  142
  148
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  207
  217
  228
  239
  251
  263
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  27
  -293
  -78
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -99
  -104
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -134
  -141
  -147
  -155
  -162
  -170
  -178
  -187
  -196
  -206
  -216
  -227
  -238
  -250
  -262
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  185
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -107
  -77
  -79
  -81
  -84
  -87
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -219
  -230
  -242
  -254
Discount rate, %
 
  5.90
  6.20
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.53
  7.91
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.60
  11.13
  11.68
  12.27
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.44
  17.26
  18.12
  19.03
  19.98
  20.98
  22.03
  23.13
  24.29
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -101
  -68
  -65
  -62
  -59
  -56
  -53
  -49
  -46
  -42
  -38
  -34
  -31
  -27
  -24
  -20
  -17
  -15
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  0.6
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

OncoMed Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (OncoMed) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. The Company focuses on discovering and developing therapeutics that address the fundamental biology driving cancer's growth, resistance, recurrence and metastasis. The Company's therapeutic candidates and preclinical programs include Demcizumab (Anti-DLL4, OMP-21M18), Tarextumab (Anti-Notch2/3, OMP-59R5), Vantictumab (anti-Fzd7, OMP-18R5), Ipafricept (Fzd8-Fc, OMP-54F28), Brontictuzumab (Anti-Notch1, OMP-52M51), Navicixizumab (Anti-DLL4/VEGF Bispecific, OMP-305B83), Anti-RSPO3 (OMP-131R10), Anti-TIGIT (OMP-313M32) and GITRL-Fc trimer (OMP-336B11). Demcizumab is a humanized monoclonal antibody that inhibits Delta-like Ligand 4 (DLL4) in the Notch signaling pathway. Tarextumab is a human monoclonal antibody that binds to both the Notch2 and Notch3 receptors.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  OncoMed Pharmaceuticals (OMED)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -1.4
Price to Sales 5.6
Price to Book -6.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -3.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -3.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -47.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -33.2%
Return On Total Capital 1084.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 273.4%
Return On Equity 1084.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 273.4%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin -404%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -282.7%
Operating Margin -416%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -289.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -412%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -288.8%
Net Profit Margin -412%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -288%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

OMED stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OMED stock intrinsic value calculation we used $25 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by OncoMed Pharmaceuticals. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of OncoMed Pharmaceuticals. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OMED stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.9%, whose default value for OMED is calculated based on our internal credit rating of OncoMed Pharmaceuticals, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of OncoMed Pharmaceuticals.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OMED stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 428%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OMED stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for OncoMed Pharmaceuticals.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for OncoMed Pharmaceuticals. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OMED stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OMED are equal to 18%.

Life of production assets of 2.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in OncoMed Pharmaceuticals operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OMED is equal to -204%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-23 million for OncoMed Pharmaceuticals - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 37.63 million for OncoMed Pharmaceuticals is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of OncoMed Pharmaceuticals at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ OncoMed Announces Second Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [Aug-02-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Human Antibody Discovery: Of Mice And Phage   [May-11-17 06:55AM  Forbes]
▶ OncoMed reports 1Q loss   [06:56AM  Associated Press]
▶ Bay Area biotech slashes half of staff after drug partnerships falter   [Apr-24-17 05:34PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ OncoMed to lay off half of its staff   [04:53PM  MarketWatch]
▶ OncoMed Announces Workforce Reduction   [04:35PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Biotech Movers: OncoMed, Incyte, Omeros   [09:28AM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Peninsula biotech tumbles as cancer trial fails, Bayer nixes drug option   [Apr-10-17 05:10PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ OncoMed Plunges On 'Double Setback'   [03:21PM  Barrons.com]
▶ OncoMed reports 4Q loss   [05:00PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Park Electrochemical Corp. (PKE) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-18-16 09:56PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] Gormley's Take: Overcoming the Precision-Medicine Paradox   [Nov-09-16 07:30AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
Financial statements of OMED
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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