Intrinsic value of Spark Therapeutics - ONCE

Previous Close

$44.76

  Intrinsic Value

$2.48

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-94%

Previous close

$44.76

 
Intrinsic value

$2.48

 
Up/down potential

-94%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ONCE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -9.09
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  64
  66
  67
  69
  71
  74
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  146
  64
  66
  67
  69
  71
  74
  76
  79
  82
  85
  88
  92
  96
  100
  104
  109
  113
  118
  124
  130
  136
  142
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
  188
  197
  206
Operating income, $m
  -125
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -141
EBITDA, $m
  -121
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
Earnings before tax, $m
  -124
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -124
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  296
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  374
  80
  82
  84
  86
  89
  91
  95
  98
  102
  105
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  185
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  89
  91
  95
  98
  102
  105
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  185
  193
  202
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.256
  0.250
  0.256
  0.250
  0.256
  0.258
  0.253
  0.253
  0.255
  0.255
  0.257
  0.255
  0.254
  0.252
  0.258
  0.256
  0.259
  0.255
  0.259
  0.253
  0.255
  0.256
  0.256
  0.254
  0.254
  0.257
  0.255
  0.257
  0.258
  0.258
  0.258
Average production assets, $m
  26
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
Working capital, $m
  285
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
Total debt, $m
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  17
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  34
  37
  41
  45
  49
  53
  57
  62
  67
  72
  78
  83
  89
  96
  103
Total liabilities, $m
  44
  45
  46
  47
  48
  50
  52
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  138
  145
Total equity, $m
  330
  35
  36
  36
  37
  39
  40
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  374
  80
  82
  83
  85
  89
  92
  94
  98
  101
  105
  110
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  140
  147
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  193
  202
  213
  222
  233
  245
  257
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.006
  0.080
  0.110
  0.140
  0.170
  0.210
  0.240
  0.270
  0.310
  0.340
  0.380
  0.410
  0.450
  0.480
  0.520
  0.550
  0.580
  0.610
  0.640
  0.670
  0.700
  0.720
  0.750
  0.770
  0.800
  0.820
  0.840
  0.860
  0.880
  0.900
  0.920
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436
  0.436

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -124
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
Funds from operations, $m
  -76
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
Change in working capital, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  -80
  -40
  -41
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -123
  -130
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
New CAPEX, $m
  -20
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -286
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
Free cash flow, $m
  -366
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -146
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  130
  45
  46
  47
  49
  50
  52
  54
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  81
  85
  89
  93
  97
  102
  107
  112
  118
  123
  129
  136
  142
  149
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  131
  46
  47
  48
  50
  51
  54
  56
  58
  60
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  89
  93
  97
  101
  106
  112
  117
  123
  128
  135
  142
  148
  156
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -235
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -39
  -45
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -142
  -149
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  296
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  253
  -44
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  242
  -40
  -39
  -38
  -37
  -36
  -34
  -33
  -31
  -30
  -28
  -26
  -24
  -22
  -20
  -18
  -17
  -15
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  78.7
  61.9
  48.6
  38.2
  29.9
  23.4
  18.4
  14.4
  11.2
  8.8
  6.8
  5.3
  4.2
  3.2
  2.5
  2.0
  1.5
  1.2
  0.9
  0.7
  0.6
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1

Spark Therapeutics, Inc. is a gene therapy company. The Company focuses on treating orphan diseases. It has a pipeline of product candidates targeting multiple rare blinding conditions, hematologic disorders and neurodegenerative diseases. Its pipeline includes a product candidate targeting choroideremia (CHM), which is in a Phase I/II clinical trial and a product candidate for hemophilia A, which is in a Phase I/II clinical trial. Its product investigational candidate, voretigene neparvovec, is intended to treat a genetic blinding condition or inherited retinal disease (IRD). The programs targeting hematologic disorders include SPK-FIX, for which the lead product candidate, SPK-9001, is in a Phase I/II clinical trial for the treatment of hemophilia B, as well as SPK-FVIII for the treatment of hemophilia A. In its SPK-FVIII program for the treatment of hemophilia A, the Company has initiated a dose-escalating Phase I/II clinical trial for its lead product candidate, SPK-8011.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Spark Therapeutics (ONCE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -9.8
Price to Sales 60.6
Price to Book 3.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -15.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -12.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -9.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 300%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0.6%
Total Debt to Equity 0.6%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -35.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -36%
Return On Total Capital -39.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -49.9%
Return On Equity -39.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -50%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin -600%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1068.2%
Operating Margin -630%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1081.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -620%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1077.9%
Net Profit Margin -620%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1077.9%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

ONCE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ONCE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $20 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Spark Therapeutics. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Spark Therapeutics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ONCE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ONCE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Spark Therapeutics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Spark Therapeutics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ONCE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 315%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ONCE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Spark Therapeutics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Spark Therapeutics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ONCE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ONCE are equal to 127.5%.

Life of production assets of 6.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Spark Therapeutics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ONCE is equal to -55%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $330 million for Spark Therapeutics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 35.788 million for Spark Therapeutics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Spark Therapeutics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Why This Biotech Stock Is Defying A Hematology-Related Pitfall   [Dec-12-17 04:59PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Spark Therapeutics: This Looks Bad   [12:31PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Stocks May Bring Volatility for the Holidays   [07:30AM  InvestorPlace]
▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [05:08PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Spark Therapeutics stock price dropped by 40% this morning   [04:11PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ With new lease, Spark Therapeutics stays true to West Phila. roots   [Dec-08-17 10:15AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ [$$] Lighting a Spark for Gene Therapy   [Dec-07-17 01:53PM  Barrons.com]
▶ Spark Therapeutics Inc (ONCE): Financial Strength Analysis   [Dec-06-17 07:27PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Spark Therapeutics Trying To Close In On Key Technical Measure   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Here's Why Spark Therapeutics, Inc. Fell 9.3% in October   [Nov-07-17 02:20PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Spark, Pfizer amend agreement for experimental hemophilia gene therapy   [12:00PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Spark Therapeutics reports 3Q loss   [07:43AM  Associated Press]
▶ [$$] Gormley's Take: Gene Therapy Finally Hitting Pay Dirt   [Oct-20-17 07:30AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Gene Therapies: A Foot in the Door   [12:31PM  Barrons.com]
▶ 8 Stocks for the Next Gene Revolution   [06:00AM  Investopedia]
Financial statements of ONCE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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