Intrinsic value of Oppenheimer Holdings A - OPY

Previous Close

$18.00

  Intrinsic Value

$6.94

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-61%

  Value-price divergence*

-89%

Previous close

$18.00

 
Intrinsic value

$6.94

 
Up/down potential

-61%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-89%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as OPY.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of OPY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -4.45
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  858
  875
  895
  918
  944
  973
  1,004
  1,038
  1,075
  1,115
  1,158
  1,204
  1,253
  1,305
  1,360
  1,419
  1,481
  1,547
  1,616
  1,690
  1,767
  1,849
  1,936
  2,027
  2,123
  2,224
  2,330
  2,442
  2,560
  2,684
  2,814
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  525
  537
  550
  565
  582
  600
  620
  642
  665
  690
  703
  731
  762
  794
  828
  865
  903
  944
  987
  1,032
  1,080
  1,130
  1,183
  1,240
  1,299
  1,361
  1,426
  1,495
  1,567
  1,643
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  363
  372
  381
  391
  401
  411
  421
  431
  442
  453
  464
  476
  488
  500
  513
  526
  539
  552
  566
  580
  595
  609
  625
  640
  656
  673
  690
  707
  724
  743
Total operating expenses, $m
  860
  888
  909
  931
  956
  983
  1,011
  1,041
  1,073
  1,107
  1,143
  1,167
  1,207
  1,250
  1,294
  1,341
  1,391
  1,442
  1,496
  1,553
  1,612
  1,675
  1,739
  1,808
  1,880
  1,955
  2,034
  2,116
  2,202
  2,291
  2,386
Operating income, $m
  -2
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -12
  -10
  -7
  -3
  2
  8
  15
  36
  45
  55
  66
  78
  91
  105
  120
  137
  155
  175
  196
  219
  243
  269
  297
  327
  358
  392
  429
EBITDA, $m
  6
  4
  3
  3
  5
  7
  10
  14
  19
  25
  32
  40
  49
  59
  69
  82
  95
  109
  125
  142
  160
  180
  201
  224
  249
  275
  303
  333
  366
  400
  436
Interest expense (income), $m
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  36
  39
  42
  45
  48
  52
  55
  59
  64
  68
  73
  78
  83
  89
  94
  101
  107
  114
  121
  129
  137
  145
Earnings before tax, $m
  -22
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -37
  -37
  -36
  -34
  -31
  -28
  -24
  -5
  0
  7
  14
  22
  31
  41
  52
  64
  78
  92
  107
  124
  142
  162
  183
  206
  230
  256
  283
Tax expense, $m
  -12
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  2
  4
  6
  8
  11
  14
  17
  21
  25
  29
  34
  38
  44
  49
  55
  62
  69
  77
Net income, $m
  -1
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -37
  -37
  -36
  -34
  -31
  -28
  -24
  -5
  0
  5
  10
  16
  23
  30
  38
  47
  57
  67
  78
  91
  104
  118
  134
  150
  168
  187
  207

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  65
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,237
  2,216
  2,267
  2,325
  2,390
  2,463
  2,542
  2,629
  2,722
  2,823
  2,932
  3,048
  3,171
  3,303
  3,443
  3,592
  3,749
  3,916
  4,092
  4,278
  4,475
  4,682
  4,901
  5,131
  5,374
  5,630
  5,899
  6,183
  6,481
  6,795
  7,125
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,172
  2,216
  2,267
  2,325
  2,390
  2,463
  2,542
  2,629
  2,722
  2,823
  2,932
  3,048
  3,171
  3,303
  3,443
  3,592
  3,749
  3,916
  4,092
  4,278
  4,475
  4,682
  4,901
  5,131
  5,374
  5,630
  5,899
  6,183
  6,481
  6,795
  7,125
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
  0.395
Average production assets, $m
  60
  60
  62
  63
  65
  67
  69
  72
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
  161
  169
  177
  185
  194
Working capital, $m
  0
  438
  448
  459
  472
  486
  502
  519
  538
  558
  579
  602
  626
  652
  680
  709
  740
  773
  808
  845
  884
  925
  968
  1,013
  1,061
  1,112
  1,165
  1,221
  1,280
  1,342
  1,407
Total debt, $m
  673
  642
  681
  725
  776
  831
  892
  958
  1,030
  1,107
  1,190
  1,278
  1,373
  1,474
  1,581
  1,695
  1,815
  1,942
  2,077
  2,220
  2,370
  2,529
  2,696
  2,872
  3,058
  3,254
  3,460
  3,677
  3,905
  4,145
  4,398
Total liabilities, $m
  1,726
  1,695
  1,734
  1,778
  1,829
  1,884
  1,945
  2,011
  2,083
  2,160
  2,243
  2,331
  2,426
  2,527
  2,634
  2,748
  2,868
  2,995
  3,130
  3,273
  3,423
  3,582
  3,749
  3,925
  4,111
  4,307
  4,513
  4,730
  4,958
  5,198
  5,451
Total equity, $m
  511
  521
  533
  546
  562
  579
  597
  618
  640
  664
  689
  716
  745
  776
  809
  844
  881
  920
  962
  1,005
  1,052
  1,100
  1,152
  1,206
  1,263
  1,323
  1,386
  1,453
  1,523
  1,597
  1,674
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,237
  2,216
  2,267
  2,324
  2,391
  2,463
  2,542
  2,629
  2,723
  2,824
  2,932
  3,047
  3,171
  3,303
  3,443
  3,592
  3,749
  3,915
  4,092
  4,278
  4,475
  4,682
  4,901
  5,131
  5,374
  5,630
  5,899
  6,183
  6,481
  6,795
  7,125
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.317
  1.230
  1.280
  1.330
  1.380
  1.440
  1.490
  1.550
  1.610
  1.670
  1.730
  1.790
  1.840
  1.900
  1.950
  2.010
  2.060
  2.110
  2.160
  2.210
  2.250
  2.300
  2.340
  2.380
  2.420
  2.460
  2.500
  2.530
  2.560
  2.600
  2.630
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235
  0.235

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -1
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -37
  -37
  -36
  -34
  -31
  -28
  -24
  -5
  0
  5
  10
  16
  23
  30
  38
  47
  57
  67
  78
  91
  104
  118
  134
  150
  168
  187
  207
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  8
  16
  16
  16
  16
  17
  17
  17
  17
  17
  17
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
Funds from operations, $m
  -200
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -20
  -19
  -17
  -14
  -11
  -7
  -2
  4
  9
  14
  20
  27
  35
  43
  52
  62
  72
  84
  96
  110
  124
  140
  157
  175
  194
  215
Change in working capital, $m
  -133
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
Cash from operations, $m
  -67
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -35
  -34
  -33
  -31
  -28
  -25
  -21
  -17
  -14
  -9
  -4
  2
  8
  15
  23
  31
  41
  51
  62
  74
  87
  101
  116
  132
  150
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
New CAPEX, $m
  -6
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
Cash from investing activities, $m
  40
  -3
  -3
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -13
  -13
  -13
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
Free cash flow, $m
  -27
  -29
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -40
  -39
  -38
  -37
  -34
  -31
  -27
  -24
  -21
  -17
  -12
  -7
  -1
  5
  13
  21
  30
  39
  50
  61
  73
  87
  101
  116
  133
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  46
  34
  39
  45
  50
  55
  61
  66
  72
  77
  83
  89
  95
  101
  107
  114
  120
  127
  135
  142
  150
  159
  167
  176
  186
  196
  206
  217
  228
  240
  253
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -4
  43
  48
  50
  52
  54
  54
  54
  53
  52
  49
  32
  29
  26
  23
  19
  14
  9
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  35
  77
  87
  95
  102
  109
  115
  120
  125
  129
  132
  121
  124
  127
  130
  133
  134
  136
  138
  142
  150
  159
  167
  176
  186
  196
  206
  217
  228
  240
  253
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  8
  48
  53
  59
  65
  70
  76
  81
  87
  92
  98
  90
  96
  102
  109
  115
  122
  129
  137
  148
  163
  179
  197
  216
  235
  257
  279
  304
  329
  357
  386
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  7
  -43
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -54
  -54
  -53
  -52
  -49
  -32
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  5
  6
  9
  12
  16
  21
  27
  33
  41
  49
  58
  67
  71
  76
  80
  85
  90
  95
  104
  117
  131
  145
  161
  178
  197
  216
  237
  259
  283
  308
Discount rate, %
 
  8.90
  9.35
  9.81
  10.30
  10.82
  11.36
  11.93
  12.52
  13.15
  13.81
  14.50
  15.22
  15.98
  16.78
  17.62
  18.50
  19.43
  20.40
  21.42
  22.49
  23.61
  24.80
  26.03
  27.34
  28.70
  30.14
  31.65
  33.23
  34.89
  36.63
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  4
  5
  6
  8
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  13
  13
  12
  10
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  89.2
  78.9
  69.5
  61.1
  53.7
  47.4
  42.0
  37.4
  33.5
  30.3
  28.4
  26.8
  25.6
  24.5
  23.8
  23.2
  22.9
  22.8
  22.8
  22.8
  22.8
  22.8
  22.8
  22.8
  22.8
  22.8
  22.8
  22.8
  22.8
  22.8

Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. is a middle-market investment bank and service broker-dealer. The Company is engaged in a range of activities in the securities industry, including retail securities brokerage, institutional sales and trading, investment banking, research, market-making, trust services, and investment advisory and asset management services. Its segments are Private Client, which provides financial services in the United States; Asset Management, which offers investment advisory services to its retail and institutional clients; Capital Markets, includes investment banking, institutional equities sales, trading, and research, taxable fixed income sales, trading, and research, public finance and municipal trading; Commercial Mortgage Banking, engaged in the business of originating and servicing Federal Housing Administration insured multifamily and healthcare facility loans and securitizing these loans into Government National Mortgage Association mortgage-backed securities.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Oppenheimer Holdings A (OPY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -240.5
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 0.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -3.6
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -4.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -15.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 29.2%
Total Debt to Equity 131.7%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Return On Total Capital -0.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.2%
Return On Equity -0.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.6%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 97.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 97.2%
EBITDA Margin 0.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Operating Margin -0.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -2.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.4%
Net Profit Margin -0.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Effective Tax Rate 54.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 25%
Payout Ratio -600%

OPY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OPY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $858 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Oppenheimer Holdings A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Oppenheimer Holdings A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OPY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.9%, whose default value for OPY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Oppenheimer Holdings A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Oppenheimer Holdings A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OPY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 60%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $354 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OPY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Oppenheimer Holdings A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Oppenheimer Holdings A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OPY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OPY are equal to 6.9%.

Life of production assets of 24.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Oppenheimer Holdings A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OPY is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $511 million for Oppenheimer Holdings A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 13.446 million for Oppenheimer Holdings A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Oppenheimer Holdings A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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Financial statements of OPY
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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