Intrinsic value of Ormat Technologies - ORA

Previous Close

$64.94

  Intrinsic Value

$38.49

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-41%

Previous close

$64.94

 
Intrinsic value

$38.49

 
Up/down potential

-41%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of ORA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  11.43
  11.90
  11.21
  10.59
  10.03
  9.53
  9.07
  8.67
  8.30
  7.97
  7.67
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.75
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
  5.75
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
  5.50
  5.45
  5.40
  5.36
  5.32
Revenue, $m
  663
  742
  825
  912
  1,004
  1,100
  1,199
  1,303
  1,412
  1,524
  1,641
  1,762
  1,889
  2,020
  2,156
  2,298
  2,446
  2,599
  2,759
  2,926
  3,099
  3,280
  3,469
  3,666
  3,872
  4,087
  4,311
  4,546
  4,792
  5,049
  5,317
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  328
  365
  403
  443
  486
  530
  575
  623
  673
  724
  777
  833
  891
  951
  1,013
  1,078
  1,146
  1,217
  1,290
  1,367
  1,446
  1,530
  1,617
  1,707
  1,802
  1,901
  2,005
  2,113
  2,226
  2,345
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  176
  181
  185
  190
  195
  199
  204
  210
  215
  220
  226
  231
  237
  243
  249
  255
  262
  268
  275
  282
  289
  296
  304
  311
  319
  327
  335
  343
  352
  361
Total operating expenses, $m
  461
  504
  546
  588
  633
  681
  729
  779
  833
  888
  944
  1,003
  1,064
  1,128
  1,194
  1,262
  1,333
  1,408
  1,485
  1,565
  1,649
  1,735
  1,826
  1,921
  2,018
  2,121
  2,228
  2,340
  2,456
  2,578
  2,706
Operating income, $m
  202
  238
  280
  324
  371
  419
  470
  523
  579
  636
  697
  760
  825
  892
  963
  1,036
  1,112
  1,192
  1,274
  1,361
  1,451
  1,545
  1,643
  1,746
  1,854
  1,966
  2,083
  2,207
  2,335
  2,470
  2,612
EBITDA, $m
  308
  356
  412
  470
  531
  595
  662
  731
  804
  879
  958
  1,040
  1,125
  1,213
  1,305
  1,401
  1,501
  1,605
  1,713
  1,826
  1,944
  2,066
  2,195
  2,329
  2,469
  2,615
  2,769
  2,929
  3,097
  3,273
  3,457
Interest expense (income), $m
  55
  52
  62
  72
  82
  93
  105
  116
  129
  142
  155
  169
  184
  199
  214
  231
  248
  265
  284
  303
  323
  343
  365
  387
  411
  436
  461
  488
  516
  545
  576
Earnings before tax, $m
  141
  185
  218
  252
  288
  326
  366
  407
  450
  495
  541
  590
  641
  693
  748
  805
  864
  926
  991
  1,058
  1,128
  1,202
  1,278
  1,359
  1,443
  1,530
  1,622
  1,719
  1,819
  1,925
  2,036
Tax expense, $m
  32
  50
  59
  68
  78
  88
  99
  110
  121
  134
  146
  159
  173
  187
  202
  217
  233
  250
  267
  286
  305
  324
  345
  367
  389
  413
  438
  464
  491
  520
  550
Net income, $m
  94
  135
  159
  184
  211
  238
  267
  297
  328
  361
  395
  431
  468
  506
  546
  588
  631
  676
  723
  772
  824
  877
  933
  992
  1,053
  1,117
  1,184
  1,255
  1,328
  1,405
  1,486

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  230
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,462
  2,498
  2,778
  3,072
  3,380
  3,702
  4,038
  4,388
  4,753
  5,131
  5,525
  5,934
  6,359
  6,801
  7,261
  7,738
  8,235
  8,752
  9,291
  9,851
  10,436
  11,045
  11,681
  12,344
  13,037
  13,760
  14,517
  15,307
  16,134
  16,999
  17,904
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,232
  2,498
  2,778
  3,072
  3,380
  3,702
  4,038
  4,388
  4,753
  5,131
  5,525
  5,934
  6,359
  6,801
  7,261
  7,738
  8,235
  8,752
  9,291
  9,851
  10,436
  11,045
  11,681
  12,344
  13,037
  13,760
  14,517
  15,307
  16,134
  16,999
  17,904
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
  0.297
Average production assets, $m
  1,096
  1,226
  1,364
  1,508
  1,660
  1,818
  1,983
  2,154
  2,333
  2,519
  2,712
  2,913
  3,122
  3,339
  3,565
  3,799
  4,043
  4,297
  4,561
  4,836
  5,123
  5,422
  5,735
  6,060
  6,400
  6,756
  7,127
  7,515
  7,921
  8,345
  8,790
Working capital, $m
  284
  134
  149
  165
  182
  199
  217
  236
  255
  276
  297
  319
  342
  366
  390
  416
  443
  470
  499
  530
  561
  594
  628
  664
  701
  740
  780
  823
  867
  914
  962
Total debt, $m
  939
  1,031
  1,197
  1,371
  1,553
  1,743
  1,942
  2,148
  2,364
  2,588
  2,820
  3,062
  3,313
  3,575
  3,846
  4,128
  4,422
  4,728
  5,046
  5,377
  5,723
  6,083
  6,458
  6,850
  7,260
  7,687
  8,134
  8,602
  9,090
  9,601
  10,136
Total liabilities, $m
  1,383
  1,476
  1,642
  1,816
  1,998
  2,188
  2,387
  2,593
  2,809
  3,033
  3,265
  3,507
  3,758
  4,020
  4,291
  4,573
  4,867
  5,173
  5,491
  5,822
  6,168
  6,528
  6,903
  7,295
  7,705
  8,132
  8,579
  9,047
  9,535
  10,046
  10,581
Total equity, $m
  1,078
  1,022
  1,136
  1,257
  1,383
  1,514
  1,652
  1,795
  1,944
  2,099
  2,260
  2,427
  2,601
  2,782
  2,970
  3,165
  3,368
  3,580
  3,800
  4,029
  4,268
  4,517
  4,777
  5,049
  5,332
  5,628
  5,937
  6,261
  6,599
  6,953
  7,323
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,461
  2,498
  2,778
  3,073
  3,381
  3,702
  4,039
  4,388
  4,753
  5,132
  5,525
  5,934
  6,359
  6,802
  7,261
  7,738
  8,235
  8,753
  9,291
  9,851
  10,436
  11,045
  11,680
  12,344
  13,037
  13,760
  14,516
  15,308
  16,134
  16,999
  17,904
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.871
  1.010
  1.050
  1.090
  1.120
  1.150
  1.180
  1.200
  1.220
  1.230
  1.250
  1.260
  1.270
  1.290
  1.300
  1.300
  1.310
  1.320
  1.330
  1.330
  1.340
  1.350
  1.350
  1.360
  1.360
  1.370
  1.370
  1.370
  1.380
  1.380
  1.380
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.380
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409
  0.409

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  94
  135
  159
  184
  211
  238
  267
  297
  328
  361
  395
  431
  468
  506
  546
  588
  631
  676
  723
  772
  824
  877
  933
  992
  1,053
  1,117
  1,184
  1,255
  1,328
  1,405
  1,486
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  106
  119
  132
  146
  160
  175
  191
  208
  225
  243
  262
  280
  300
  321
  343
  365
  389
  413
  439
  465
  493
  521
  551
  583
  615
  650
  685
  723
  762
  802
  845
Funds from operations, $m
  90
  254
  291
  330
  371
  414
  458
  505
  554
  604
  657
  711
  768
  827
  889
  953
  1,020
  1,089
  1,162
  1,237
  1,316
  1,399
  1,485
  1,574
  1,668
  1,767
  1,869
  1,977
  2,090
  2,208
  2,331
Change in working capital, $m
  -69
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
  44
  46
  49
Cash from operations, $m
  159
  240
  276
  314
  354
  396
  440
  486
  534
  584
  635
  689
  745
  803
  864
  927
  993
  1,061
  1,133
  1,207
  1,285
  1,366
  1,450
  1,539
  1,631
  1,728
  1,829
  1,935
  2,045
  2,161
  2,283
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -105
  -118
  -131
  -145
  -160
  -175
  -191
  -207
  -224
  -242
  -261
  -280
  -300
  -321
  -343
  -365
  -389
  -413
  -439
  -465
  -493
  -521
  -551
  -583
  -615
  -650
  -685
  -723
  -762
  -802
New CAPEX, $m
  -152
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -158
  -165
  -172
  -179
  -186
  -193
  -201
  -209
  -217
  -226
  -234
  -244
  -254
  -264
  -275
  -287
  -299
  -312
  -326
  -340
  -355
  -371
  -388
  -406
  -425
  -444
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -159
  -235
  -255
  -275
  -296
  -318
  -340
  -363
  -386
  -410
  -435
  -462
  -489
  -517
  -547
  -577
  -609
  -643
  -677
  -714
  -752
  -792
  -833
  -877
  -923
  -970
  -1,021
  -1,073
  -1,129
  -1,187
  -1,246
Free cash flow, $m
  0
  4
  21
  39
  58
  79
  101
  124
  148
  173
  200
  227
  256
  286
  318
  350
  384
  419
  455
  493
  533
  574
  617
  662
  708
  757
  808
  861
  917
  975
  1,036
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  26
  158
  165
  174
  182
  190
  199
  207
  215
  224
  233
  242
  251
  261
  271
  282
  294
  306
  318
  331
  345
  360
  376
  392
  409
  428
  447
  467
  489
  511
  535
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  70
  158
  165
  174
  182
  190
  199
  207
  215
  224
  233
  242
  251
  261
  271
  282
  294
  306
  318
  331
  345
  360
  376
  392
  409
  428
  447
  467
  489
  511
  535
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  70
  162
  186
  212
  240
  269
  299
  331
  363
  397
  433
  469
  508
  547
  589
  632
  677
  724
  774
  825
  878
  934
  993
  1,054
  1,118
  1,185
  1,255
  1,328
  1,405
  1,486
  1,571
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -88
  -108
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -137
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -167
  -174
  -181
  -188
  -195
  -203
  -211
  -220
  -229
  -239
  -249
  -260
  -271
  -283
  -296
  -309
  -323
  -338
  -354
  -370
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  164
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  219
  71
  92
  114
  137
  162
  187
  214
  242
  272
  302
  334
  367
  401
  437
  474
  513
  553
  595
  639
  685
  733
  782
  834
  889
  946
  1,005
  1,067
  1,132
  1,201
Discount rate, %
 
  6.10
  6.41
  6.73
  7.06
  7.41
  7.79
  8.17
  8.58
  9.01
  9.46
  9.94
  10.43
  10.95
  11.50
  12.08
  12.68
  13.32
  13.98
  14.68
  15.41
  16.19
  16.99
  17.84
  18.74
  19.67
  20.66
  21.69
  22.77
  23.91
  25.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  206
  63
  76
  87
  96
  103
  108
  111
  111
  110
  106
  101
  95
  87
  79
  70
  61
  52
  44
  36
  29
  23
  18
  14
  10
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Ormat Technologies, Inc. is engaged in the geothermal and recovered energy power business. The Company designs, develops, builds, owns and operates geothermal and recovered energy-based power plants. Its equipment manufacturing operations are located in Israel. It conducts its business activities in two business segments: Electricity segment and Product segment. The Electricity segment develops, builds, owns and operates geothermal and recovered energy-based power plants in the United States and geothermal power plants in other countries around the world, and sells the electricity it generates. The Product Segment designs, manufactures and sells equipment for geothermal and recovered energy-based electricity generation and remote power units, and provide services relating to the engineering, procurement, construction, operation and maintenance of geothermal, and recovered energy-based power plants. It manufactures products that produce electricity from recovered energy or waste heat.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ormat Technologies (ORA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 34.3
Price to Sales 4.9
Price to Book 3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 20.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 460.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 11.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 0%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -5.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 81%
Total Debt to Equity 87.1%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Return On Total Capital 4.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Return On Equity 9.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Asset Turnover 0.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 40.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 38%
EBITDA Margin 45.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 45.5%
Operating Margin 30.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 27.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 21.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.6%
Net Profit Margin 14.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.7%
Effective Tax Rate 22.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 14%
Payout Ratio 27.7%

ORA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ORA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $663 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ormat Technologies. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ormat Technologies. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ORA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 11.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.1%, whose default value for ORA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ormat Technologies, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ormat Technologies.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ORA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 44.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $172 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ORA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6% for Ormat Technologies.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ormat Technologies. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ORA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ORA are equal to 165.3%.

Life of production assets of 10.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ormat Technologies operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ORA is equal to 18.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $1078 million for Ormat Technologies - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 49.892 million for Ormat Technologies is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ormat Technologies at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

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▶ 5 Clean-Energy Stocks to Buy in 2017   [Aug-22-17 07:17AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ormat Technologies tops Street 2Q forecasts   [05:21PM  Associated Press]
▶ Ormat Technologies tops Street 1Q forecasts   [May-08-17 06:10PM  Associated Press]
▶ Get Ready To Be Surprised This Earnings Season   [Apr-11-17 03:20PM  Zacks]
▶ Center City energy startup sells for $35M   [Jan-03-17 04:20PM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ Ormat Signs $36M Power Project Deal (ORA)   [Dec-12-16 09:34AM  at Investopedia]
Financial statements of ORA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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