Intrinsic value of Orbotech - ORBK

Previous Close

$36.97

  Intrinsic Value

$45.54

stock screener

  Rating & Target

buy

+23%

  Value-price divergence*

+427%

Previous close

$36.97

 
Intrinsic value

$45.54

 
Up/down potential

+23%

 
Rating

buy

 
Value-price divergence*

+427%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ORBK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.7

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.04
  7.00
  6.80
  6.62
  6.46
  6.31
  6.18
  6.06
  5.96
  5.86
  5.77
  5.70
  5.63
  5.56
  5.51
  5.46
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
  5.09
Revenue, $m
  806
  862
  921
  982
  1,045
  1,111
  1,180
  1,252
  1,326
  1,404
  1,485
  1,570
  1,658
  1,750
  1,847
  1,947
  2,053
  2,163
  2,278
  2,399
  2,526
  2,658
  2,797
  2,942
  3,095
  3,254
  3,422
  3,597
  3,781
  3,974
  4,177
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  502
  535
  570
  605
  642
  681
  721
  763
  807
  852
  882
  932
  984
  1,038
  1,095
  1,154
  1,216
  1,281
  1,349
  1,420
  1,494
  1,572
  1,654
  1,740
  1,829
  1,923
  2,022
  2,126
  2,234
  2,348
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  229
  234
  240
  246
  252
  259
  265
  272
  278
  285
  293
  300
  307
  315
  323
  331
  339
  348
  356
  365
  375
  384
  394
  403
  413
  424
  434
  445
  456
  468
Total operating expenses, $m
  689
  731
  769
  810
  851
  894
  940
  986
  1,035
  1,085
  1,137
  1,175
  1,232
  1,291
  1,353
  1,418
  1,485
  1,555
  1,629
  1,705
  1,785
  1,869
  1,956
  2,048
  2,143
  2,242
  2,347
  2,456
  2,571
  2,690
  2,816
Operating income, $m
  117
  131
  151
  172
  194
  217
  241
  265
  291
  319
  347
  395
  426
  459
  493
  530
  568
  608
  650
  694
  740
  789
  841
  895
  952
  1,011
  1,074
  1,141
  1,210
  1,284
  1,361
EBITDA, $m
  162
  163
  184
  205
  228
  252
  277
  303
  330
  359
  388
  420
  452
  487
  523
  561
  600
  642
  686
  732
  781
  832
  885
  941
  1,001
  1,063
  1,129
  1,198
  1,270
  1,347
  1,427
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  61
Earnings before tax, $m
  96
  128
  147
  167
  188
  209
  232
  255
  280
  306
  333
  379
  409
  440
  473
  508
  544
  582
  622
  664
  708
  755
  804
  855
  910
  967
  1,027
  1,090
  1,156
  1,226
  1,300
Tax expense, $m
  16
  35
  40
  45
  51
  56
  63
  69
  76
  83
  90
  102
  110
  119
  128
  137
  147
  157
  168
  179
  191
  204
  217
  231
  246
  261
  277
  294
  312
  331
  351
Net income, $m
  79
  94
  107
  122
  137
  153
  169
  186
  204
  223
  243
  277
  299
  321
  345
  371
  397
  425
  454
  485
  517
  551
  587
  624
  664
  706
  749
  796
  844
  895
  949

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  217
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,103
  948
  1,012
  1,079
  1,149
  1,221
  1,297
  1,375
  1,457
  1,543
  1,632
  1,725
  1,822
  1,923
  2,029
  2,140
  2,256
  2,377
  2,504
  2,637
  2,775
  2,921
  3,073
  3,233
  3,401
  3,576
  3,760
  3,953
  4,155
  4,367
  4,590
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  886
  948
  1,012
  1,079
  1,149
  1,221
  1,297
  1,375
  1,457
  1,543
  1,632
  1,725
  1,822
  1,923
  2,029
  2,140
  2,256
  2,377
  2,504
  2,637
  2,775
  2,921
  3,073
  3,233
  3,401
  3,576
  3,760
  3,953
  4,155
  4,367
  4,590
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.910
  0.909
  0.910
  0.910
  0.909
  0.910
  0.910
  0.911
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
  0.910
Average production assets, $m
  128
  137
  146
  156
  166
  177
  188
  199
  211
  223
  236
  250
  264
  278
  294
  310
  326
  344
  362
  381
  402
  423
  445
  468
  492
  517
  544
  572
  601
  632
  664
Working capital, $m
  504
  324
  346
  369
  393
  418
  444
  471
  499
  528
  558
  590
  623
  658
  694
  732
  772
  813
  857
  902
  950
  999
  1,052
  1,106
  1,164
  1,224
  1,287
  1,352
  1,422
  1,494
  1,570
Total debt, $m
  88
  95
  120
  145
  171
  198
  227
  256
  287
  319
  353
  388
  424
  462
  502
  544
  587
  633
  680
  730
  783
  837
  895
  955
  1,018
  1,084
  1,153
  1,225
  1,301
  1,381
  1,465
Total liabilities, $m
  349
  356
  381
  406
  432
  459
  488
  517
  548
  580
  614
  649
  685
  723
  763
  805
  848
  894
  941
  991
  1,044
  1,098
  1,156
  1,216
  1,279
  1,345
  1,414
  1,486
  1,562
  1,642
  1,726
Total equity, $m
  754
  591
  632
  673
  717
  762
  809
  858
  909
  963
  1,018
  1,076
  1,137
  1,200
  1,266
  1,335
  1,408
  1,483
  1,562
  1,645
  1,732
  1,823
  1,918
  2,018
  2,122
  2,231
  2,346
  2,467
  2,593
  2,725
  2,864
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,103
  947
  1,013
  1,079
  1,149
  1,221
  1,297
  1,375
  1,457
  1,543
  1,632
  1,725
  1,822
  1,923
  2,029
  2,140
  2,256
  2,377
  2,503
  2,636
  2,776
  2,921
  3,074
  3,234
  3,401
  3,576
  3,760
  3,953
  4,155
  4,367
  4,590
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.117
  0.160
  0.190
  0.210
  0.240
  0.260
  0.280
  0.300
  0.320
  0.330
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.390
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.500
  0.510
  0.510
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.606
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624
  0.624

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  79
  94
  107
  122
  137
  153
  169
  186
  204
  223
  243
  277
  299
  321
  345
  371
  397
  425
  454
  485
  517
  551
  587
  624
  664
  706
  749
  796
  844
  895
  949
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  45
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  40
  41
  25
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
Funds from operations, $m
  78
  125
  140
  155
  171
  188
  206
  224
  243
  263
  284
  302
  325
  349
  375
  402
  430
  459
  490
  523
  557
  593
  631
  671
  713
  757
  804
  853
  904
  958
  1,016
Change in working capital, $m
  -30
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
Cash from operations, $m
  108
  104
  118
  132
  147
  163
  180
  197
  215
  234
  254
  270
  292
  315
  338
  364
  390
  418
  447
  477
  510
  544
  579
  617
  656
  697
  741
  787
  835
  886
  939
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
New CAPEX, $m
  -24
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -10
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
Free cash flow, $m
  98
  82
  95
  108
  122
  136
  151
  167
  183
  201
  219
  233
  253
  274
  295
  318
  342
  368
  394
  422
  451
  482
  515
  549
  585
  623
  663
  704
  749
  795
  844
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -152
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  107
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -44
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
  50
  52
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  54
  105
  119
  133
  148
  163
  180
  196
  214
  233
  252
  268
  289
  312
  335
  360
  386
  413
  442
  472
  504
  537
  572
  609
  648
  689
  732
  777
  825
  875
  928
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -185
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  201
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  268
  79
  91
  104
  118
  132
  147
  163
  179
  197
  210
  229
  248
  269
  291
  314
  338
  363
  389
  417
  446
  477
  509
  543
  579
  617
  657
  698
  742
  789
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  257
  72
  79
  86
  92
  96
  100
  102
  103
  103
  100
  98
  94
  90
  85
  80
  73
  67
  60
  53
  46
  40
  33
  28
  23
  18
  14
  11
  8
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Orbotech Ltd. provides yield-enhancing and process-enabling solutions for the manufacture of printed circuit boards (PCBs), flat panel displays (FPDs), and semiconductor devices (SDs) in China, North America, Europe, Japan, Korea, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Production Solutions for the Electronics Industry, Solar Energy, and Recognition Software. The company designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and services direct imaging, automated optical inspection (AOI), automated optical shaping, via formation laser drilling tools, digital inkjet printing, and other production systems used in the manufacture of PCBs; AOI, test, repair, and process monitoring systems for use in the manufacture of FPDs; and etch, physical vapor deposition, and chemical vapor deposition equipment used in the manufacture of SDs, such as micro-electro-mechanical systems, advanced semiconductor packaging, power and radio frequency devices, and high brightness light emitting diode devices. It is also involved in the research, development, and marketing of products for the deposition of thin film coating of various materials on crystalline silicon photovoltaic wafers for solar energy panels. In addition, the company develops and markets check processing and healthcare payments automation solutions to banks, financial, and other payment processing institutions and healthcare providers through system integrators and solution providers. The company was formerly known as Optrotech Ltd. and changed its name to Orbotech Ltd. as a result of its merger with Orbot Systems Ltd. in October 1992. Orbotech Ltd. was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Yavne, Israel.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Orbotech (ORBK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 22.4
Price to Sales 2.2
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 16.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 21
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 26.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 13%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 14
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 9.5%
Total Debt to Equity 11.7%
Interest Coverage 15
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 7.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Return On Total Capital 9.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Return On Equity 11.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 46.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 44.9%
EBITDA Margin 18.4%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.2%
Operating Margin 14.5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Net Profit Margin 9.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Effective Tax Rate 16.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.7%
Payout Ratio 0%

ORBK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ORBK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $806 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Orbotech. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Orbotech. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ORBK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for ORBK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Orbotech, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Orbotech.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ORBK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 58.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $223 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ORBK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.4% for Orbotech.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Orbotech. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ORBK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ORBK are equal to 15.9%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Orbotech operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ORBK is equal to 37.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $754 million for Orbotech - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 46.732 million for Orbotech is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Orbotech at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.7 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Orbotech tops Street 2Q forecasts   [Aug-02-17 09:54PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Orbotech Ltd. : July 24, 2017   [Jul-24-17 05:49PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Orbotech Ltd. : July 14, 2017   [Jul-14-17 04:03PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Chip Stocks And Semiconductor Industry News   [May-18-17 12:52PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ What Makes Orbotech (ORBK) a Strong Sell?   [Feb-28-17 08:47AM  Zacks]
▶ Why Shares of Orbotech Ltd. Are Down Today   [11:48AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ 3 Cheap Growth Stocks You Can Buy Right Now   [Jun-24-16 01:42PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Fridays Market Movers & Shakers: BP, Gevo, Orbotech, More   [Jun-10-16 01:08PM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of ORBK Financial statements of ORBK
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The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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