Intrinsic value of Orchid Island Capital - ORC

Previous Close

$10.32

  Intrinsic Value

$1.85

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-82%

  Value-price divergence*

-41%

Previous close

$10.32

 
Intrinsic value

$1.85

 
Up/down potential

-82%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-41%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as ORC.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of ORC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  68.75
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  81
  84
  89
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
Operating income, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
EBITDA, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
Interest expense (income), $m
  15
  95
  95
  97
  100
  103
  106
  109
  113
  117
  121
  126
  131
  136
  142
  148
  154
  161
  168
  176
  184
  192
  201
  211
  221
  231
  242
  254
  266
  279
  292
Earnings before tax, $m
  2
  -93
  -93
  -95
  -98
  -100
  -103
  -107
  -110
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -188
  -197
  -206
  -216
  -226
  -237
  -248
  -260
  -272
  -286
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  2
  -93
  -93
  -95
  -98
  -100
  -103
  -107
  -110
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -188
  -197
  -206
  -216
  -226
  -237
  -248
  -260
  -272
  -286

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  73
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,139
  3,060
  3,130
  3,211
  3,301
  3,401
  3,511
  3,631
  3,760
  3,899
  4,049
  4,209
  4,380
  4,562
  4,755
  4,960
  5,178
  5,408
  5,651
  5,908
  6,180
  6,466
  6,768
  7,087
  7,422
  7,776
  8,148
  8,539
  8,951
  9,385
  9,841
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,066
  3,060
  3,130
  3,211
  3,301
  3,401
  3,511
  3,631
  3,760
  3,899
  4,049
  4,209
  4,380
  4,562
  4,755
  4,960
  5,178
  5,408
  5,651
  5,908
  6,180
  6,466
  6,768
  7,087
  7,422
  7,776
  8,148
  8,539
  8,951
  9,385
  9,841
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.009
  0.009
  0.009
  0.009
  0.009
  0.009
  0.009
  0.009
  0.009
  0.009
  0.009
  0.009
  0.009
  0.009
  0.009
  0.009
  0.009
  0.009
  0.009
  0.009
  0.009
  0.009
  0.009
  0.009
  0.009
  0.009
  0.009
  0.009
  0.009
  0.009
  0.009
Average production assets, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Working capital, $m
  0
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
Total debt, $m
  2,794
  2,714
  2,777
  2,849
  2,929
  3,018
  3,116
  3,223
  3,338
  3,462
  3,596
  3,738
  3,891
  4,053
  4,225
  4,408
  4,601
  4,806
  5,023
  5,252
  5,494
  5,749
  6,019
  6,302
  6,601
  6,916
  7,248
  7,596
  7,964
  8,350
  8,756
Total liabilities, $m
  2,806
  2,726
  2,789
  2,861
  2,941
  3,030
  3,128
  3,235
  3,350
  3,474
  3,608
  3,750
  3,903
  4,065
  4,237
  4,420
  4,613
  4,818
  5,035
  5,264
  5,506
  5,761
  6,031
  6,314
  6,613
  6,928
  7,260
  7,608
  7,976
  8,362
  8,768
Total equity, $m
  333
  334
  341
  350
  360
  371
  383
  396
  410
  425
  441
  459
  477
  497
  518
  541
  564
  589
  616
  644
  674
  705
  738
  772
  809
  848
  888
  931
  976
  1,023
  1,073
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,139
  3,060
  3,130
  3,211
  3,301
  3,401
  3,511
  3,631
  3,760
  3,899
  4,049
  4,209
  4,380
  4,562
  4,755
  4,961
  5,177
  5,407
  5,651
  5,908
  6,180
  6,466
  6,769
  7,086
  7,422
  7,776
  8,148
  8,539
  8,952
  9,385
  9,841
Debt-to-equity ratio
  8.390
  8.140
  8.140
  8.140
  8.140
  8.140
  8.140
  8.140
  8.150
  8.150
  8.150
  8.150
  8.150
  8.150
  8.150
  8.150
  8.150
  8.150
  8.150
  8.160
  8.160
  8.160
  8.160
  8.160
  8.160
  8.160
  8.160
  8.160
  8.160
  8.160
  8.160
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109
  0.109

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  2
  -93
  -93
  -95
  -98
  -100
  -103
  -107
  -110
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -188
  -197
  -206
  -216
  -226
  -237
  -248
  -260
  -272
  -286
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Funds from operations, $m
  47
  -93
  -93
  -95
  -98
  -100
  -103
  -107
  -110
  -114
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -188
  -197
  -206
  -216
  -226
  -237
  -248
  -260
  -272
  -286
Change in working capital, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Cash from operations, $m
  47
  -93
  -93
  -95
  -98
  -101
  -104
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -145
  -152
  -158
  -166
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -198
  -207
  -217
  -227
  -238
  -250
  -262
  -274
  -288
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -920
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Free cash flow, $m
  -873
  -93
  -93
  -95
  -98
  -101
  -104
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -119
  -124
  -129
  -134
  -140
  -145
  -152
  -158
  -166
  -173
  -181
  -189
  -198
  -207
  -217
  -227
  -238
  -250
  -262
  -274
  -288
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -188
  -7
  63
  72
  80
  89
  98
  107
  115
  124
  133
  143
  152
  162
  172
  183
  194
  205
  217
  229
  242
  255
  269
  284
  299
  315
  331
  349
  367
  386
  406
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  118
  94
  101
  104
  107
  111
  115
  120
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  153
  160
  167
  175
  183
  191
  200
  209
  219
  230
  241
  252
  264
  277
  291
  305
  320
  335
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  926
  87
  164
  176
  187
  200
  213
  227
  239
  253
  268
  284
  299
  315
  332
  350
  369
  388
  408
  429
  451
  474
  499
  525
  551
  579
  608
  640
  672
  706
  741
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  53
  -6
  70
  80
  90
  100
  109
  119
  129
  139
  149
  159
  170
  181
  192
  204
  216
  229
  242
  256
  270
  285
  301
  317
  334
  352
  370
  390
  410
  432
  454
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -80
  -94
  -101
  -104
  -107
  -111
  -115
  -120
  -124
  -129
  -135
  -141
  -147
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -175
  -183
  -191
  -200
  -209
  -219
  -230
  -241
  -252
  -264
  -277
  -291
  -305
  -320
  -335
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -94
  -31
  -24
  -17
  -12
  -6
  -1
  4
  9
  14
  19
  24
  28
  33
  37
  42
  47
  51
  56
  61
  66
  71
  76
  82
  87
  93
  99
  105
  112
  119
Discount rate, %
 
  14.00
  14.70
  15.44
  16.21
  17.02
  17.87
  18.76
  19.70
  20.68
  21.72
  22.80
  23.94
  25.14
  26.40
  27.72
  29.10
  30.56
  32.09
  33.69
  35.38
  37.15
  39.00
  40.95
  43.00
  45.15
  47.41
  49.78
  52.27
  54.88
  57.63
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -82
  -23
  -15
  -10
  -5
  -2
  0
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  83.2
  68.5
  56.2
  46.1
  37.8
  30.9
  25.3
  20.6
  16.8
  13.7
  11.2
  9.1
  7.4
  6.0
  4.9
  4.0
  3.2
  2.6
  2.1
  1.7
  1.4
  1.1
  0.9
  0.7
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3
  0.2

Orchid Island Capital, Inc. is a specialty finance company that invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS). The Company's business objective is to provide attractive risk-adjusted total returns to its investors over the long term through a combination of capital appreciation and the payment of regular monthly distributions. Its portfolio consists of two categories of Agency RMBS: pass-through Agency RMBS and structured Agency RMBS. It invests in pass-through securities, which are securities secured by residential real property in which payments of both interest and principal on the securities are generally made monthly. The mortgage loans underlying pass-through certificates are classified into three categories, including fixed-rate mortgages, adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) and Hybrid ARMs. It invests in structured Agency RMBS, which include collateralized mortgage obligations, interest only securities, inverse interest only securities and principal only securities.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Orchid Island Capital (ORC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 170.1
Price to Sales 12.6
Price to Book 1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 7.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 68.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -100%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 839%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Return On Total Capital 0.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Return On Equity 0.7%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Asset Turnover 0
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 25.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 47.2%
EBITDA Margin 63%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 66.8%
Operating Margin 7.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.6%
Net Profit Margin 7.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.6%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 1850%

ORC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the ORC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $27 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Orchid Island Capital. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Orchid Island Capital. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our ORC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14%, whose default value for ORC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Orchid Island Capital, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Orchid Island Capital.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of ORC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 92.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for ORC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Orchid Island Capital.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Orchid Island Capital. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the ORC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for ORC are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Orchid Island Capital operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for ORC is equal to 50%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $333 million for Orchid Island Capital - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 45.121 million for Orchid Island Capital is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Orchid Island Capital at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ No coding required for these top tech jobs   [Oct-18-17 09:45AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Orco Property Group : PR H1 2017 Financial Results   [Aug-31-17 01:57PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Orchid Island Capital, Inc. Announces At-The-Market Program   [Aug-02-17 04:27PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Orchid Island reports 2Q loss   [Jul-31-17 10:12PM  Associated Press]
▶ Orco Property Group : Q1 2017 Financial Results   [May-31-17 01:57PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Orchid Island posts 1Q profit   [Apr-27-17 07:36PM  Associated Press]
▶ Orco Property Group : Convening Notice of the Company's AGM   [Apr-21-17 11:34AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Stocks That Are Changing Direction   [Apr-17-17 02:00PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Orco Property Group : OPG - 2016 Financial Information   [Apr-01-17 06:42AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Stocks set to post best Q1 in 4 years   [Mar-31-17 11:36AM  Yahoo Finance]
▶ How Adobe Can Plug the Holes in Its Cloud   [Mar-23-17 05:40PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ How Adobe Can Plug the Holes in Its Cloud   [05:40PM  at TheStreet]
▶ Orco Property Group : Suspension of Trading in Warsaw   [Feb-20-17 11:42AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Orchid Island reports 4Q loss   [Feb-16-17 05:09PM  Associated Press]
▶ Orco Property Group : Q3 2016 Financial Results   [Nov-30-16 12:19PM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of ORC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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