Intrinsic value of Overstock.com - OSTK

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$17.35

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$17.35

 
Intrinsic value

$42.29

 
Up/down potential

+144%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of OSTK stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  8.56
  9.60
  9.14
  8.73
  8.35
  8.02
  7.72
  7.44
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
Revenue, $m
  1,800
  1,973
  2,153
  2,341
  2,537
  2,740
  2,951
  3,171
  3,399
  3,637
  3,883
  4,140
  4,407
  4,684
  4,973
  5,274
  5,588
  5,915
  6,256
  6,612
  6,983
  7,372
  7,777
  8,202
  8,645
  9,109
  9,595
  10,103
  10,635
  11,192
  11,776
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,890
  2,062
  2,242
  2,429
  2,624
  2,826
  3,037
  3,255
  3,482
  3,718
  3,962
  4,218
  4,483
  4,760
  5,048
  5,348
  5,661
  5,988
  6,329
  6,684
  7,056
  7,444
  7,850
  8,275
  8,719
  9,184
  9,670
  10,179
  10,713
  11,272
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  76
  78
  80
  82
  84
  86
  88
  90
  92
  95
  97
  100
  102
  105
  107
  110
  113
  115
  118
  121
  124
  127
  131
  134
  137
  141
  144
  148
  151
  155
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,796
  1,966
  2,140
  2,322
  2,511
  2,708
  2,912
  3,125
  3,345
  3,574
  3,813
  4,059
  4,318
  4,585
  4,865
  5,155
  5,458
  5,774
  6,103
  6,447
  6,805
  7,180
  7,571
  7,981
  8,409
  8,856
  9,325
  9,814
  10,327
  10,864
  11,427
Operating income, $m
  4
  7
  13
  19
  25
  32
  39
  46
  54
  62
  70
  80
  89
  99
  108
  119
  129
  141
  153
  165
  178
  191
  206
  221
  236
  253
  270
  289
  308
  328
  349
EBITDA, $m
  35
  26
  34
  42
  50
  58
  67
  76
  86
  96
  107
  117
  129
  141
  153
  166
  180
  194
  209
  224
  241
  258
  276
  295
  314
  335
  357
  380
  404
  429
  455
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  39
  42
  45
  47
  50
Earnings before tax, $m
  21
  5
  11
  16
  22
  28
  33
  40
  46
  53
  60
  68
  76
  84
  92
  101
  110
  120
  130
  141
  152
  163
  176
  188
  202
  216
  231
  247
  263
  281
  299
Tax expense, $m
  10
  1
  3
  4
  6
  7
  9
  11
  12
  14
  16
  18
  21
  23
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  47
  51
  55
  58
  62
  67
  71
  76
  81
Net income, $m
  13
  4
  8
  12
  16
  20
  24
  29
  34
  38
  44
  50
  56
  61
  68
  74
  81
  88
  95
  103
  111
  119
  128
  138
  147
  158
  169
  180
  192
  205
  218

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  183
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  485
  331
  361
  393
  426
  460
  495
  532
  570
  610
  652
  695
  739
  786
  834
  885
  938
  992
  1,050
  1,109
  1,172
  1,237
  1,305
  1,376
  1,451
  1,528
  1,610
  1,695
  1,784
  1,878
  1,976
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  302
  331
  361
  393
  426
  460
  495
  532
  570
  610
  652
  695
  739
  786
  834
  885
  938
  992
  1,050
  1,109
  1,172
  1,237
  1,305
  1,376
  1,451
  1,528
  1,610
  1,695
  1,784
  1,878
  1,976
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  5.960
  5.961
  5.964
  5.957
  5.955
  5.957
  5.962
  5.961
  5.963
  5.962
  5.956
  5.957
  5.963
  5.959
  5.963
  5.959
  5.957
  5.963
  5.958
  5.962
  5.958
  5.960
  5.959
  5.961
  5.958
  5.961
  5.960
  5.960
  5.961
  5.960
  5.960
Average production assets, $m
  81
  89
  97
  105
  114
  123
  133
  143
  153
  164
  175
  186
  198
  211
  224
  237
  251
  266
  282
  298
  314
  332
  350
  369
  389
  410
  432
  455
  479
  504
  530
Working capital, $m
  12
  -183
  -200
  -218
  -236
  -255
  -274
  -295
  -316
  -338
  -361
  -385
  -410
  -436
  -462
  -490
  -520
  -550
  -582
  -615
  -649
  -686
  -723
  -763
  -804
  -847
  -892
  -940
  -989
  -1,041
  -1,095
Total debt, $m
  59
  47
  74
  103
  132
  163
  195
  228
  262
  298
  335
  374
  414
  456
  500
  545
  593
  642
  694
  747
  804
  862
  923
  987
  1,054
  1,125
  1,198
  1,275
  1,355
  1,439
  1,527
Total liabilities, $m
  310
  298
  325
  354
  383
  414
  446
  479
  513
  549
  586
  625
  665
  707
  751
  796
  844
  893
  945
  998
  1,055
  1,113
  1,174
  1,238
  1,305
  1,376
  1,449
  1,526
  1,606
  1,690
  1,778
Total equity, $m
  175
  33
  36
  39
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  65
  69
  74
  79
  83
  88
  94
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  130
  138
  145
  153
  161
  170
  178
  188
  198
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  485
  331
  361
  393
  426
  460
  496
  532
  570
  610
  651
  694
  739
  786
  834
  884
  938
  992
  1,050
  1,109
  1,172
  1,237
  1,304
  1,376
  1,450
  1,529
  1,610
  1,696
  1,784
  1,878
  1,976
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.337
  1.420
  2.050
  2.610
  3.100
  3.540
  3.930
  4.280
  4.600
  4.890
  5.150
  5.390
  5.610
  5.810
  5.990
  6.160
  6.320
  6.470
  6.610
  6.740
  6.860
  6.970
  7.080
  7.180
  7.270
  7.360
  7.440
  7.520
  7.590
  7.660
  7.730
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.026
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  13
  4
  8
  12
  16
  20
  24
  29
  34
  38
  44
  50
  56
  61
  68
  74
  81
  88
  95
  103
  111
  119
  128
  138
  147
  158
  169
  180
  192
  205
  218
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  31
  19
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  37
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  86
  91
  96
  101
  106
Funds from operations, $m
  21
  23
  29
  35
  40
  46
  52
  59
  66
  73
  80
  87
  95
  104
  112
  121
  131
  141
  151
  162
  174
  186
  198
  211
  225
  240
  255
  271
  288
  306
  324
Change in working capital, $m
  -19
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
Cash from operations, $m
  40
  105
  46
  52
  58
  65
  72
  79
  87
  95
  103
  111
  120
  129
  139
  149
  160
  171
  183
  195
  208
  222
  236
  251
  266
  283
  300
  318
  337
  357
  378
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
New CAPEX, $m
  -72
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -79
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -59
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -127
Free cash flow, $m
  -39
  80
  20
  24
  29
  33
  38
  43
  48
  53
  59
  65
  71
  77
  84
  91
  98
  106
  114
  123
  132
  141
  151
  162
  173
  184
  196
  209
  222
  237
  251
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  46
  -9
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  53
  -9
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  13
  71
  47
  53
  58
  64
  70
  76
  83
  89
  96
  103
  111
  119
  128
  137
  146
  156
  166
  177
  188
  200
  213
  226
  240
  254
  270
  286
  303
  321
  340
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -25
  -38
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  180
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  213
  44
  49
  55
  60
  66
  72
  79
  85
  92
  99
  107
  114
  123
  131
  141
  150
  160
  171
  182
  193
  206
  219
  232
  246
  261
  277
  294
  311
  330
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  204
  41
  43
  45
  47
  48
  49
  49
  49
  48
  47
  45
  44
  41
  39
  36
  33
  29
  26
  23
  20
  17
  14
  12
  10
  8
  6
  5
  3
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Overstock.com, Inc. operates as an online retailer in the United States. The company operates through two segments, Direct and Partner. It offers brand name, non-brand name, and closeout products, including furniture, home decor, bedding and bath, housewares, jewelry and watches, apparel and designer accessories, health and beauty products, electronics and computers, sporting goods, and other products; and sells various books, magazines, CDs, DVDs, and video games. The company also offers fintech and crypto, and proprietary blockchain software products; pet adoptions, farmers market, and insurance services; and online car listing service. In addition, it operates Worldstock Fair Trade, a store that offers handcrafted products; Main Street Revolution, a store that features products from small businesses; Supplier Oasis, a single integration point used to manage products, inventory, and sales channels; and ecommerce marketplace channels. Overstock.com, Inc. sells its products and services through its Internet websites located at overstock.com, o.co, and o.biz, as well as through the United States based third party logistics providers to international customer. The company was formerly known as D2-Discounts Direct and changed its name to Overstock.com, Inc. in October 1999. Overstock.com, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is based in Midvale, Utah.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Overstock.com (OSTK)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 33.9
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11
Price to Free Cash Flow -13.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 8.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 20%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 32%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 61
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 32%
Total Debt to Equity 33.7%
Interest Coverage 22
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2%
Return On Total Capital 6.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Return On Equity 8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.6%
Asset Turnover 3.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 18.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 18.5%
EBITDA Margin 2.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.3%
Operating Margin 0.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Net Profit Margin 0.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Effective Tax Rate 47.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 48.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

OSTK stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OSTK stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1800 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Overstock.com. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Overstock.com. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OSTK stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for OSTK is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Overstock.com, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Overstock.com.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OSTK stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 95.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $74 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OSTK stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Overstock.com.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Overstock.com. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OSTK stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OSTK are equal to 4.5%.

Life of production assets of 3.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Overstock.com operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OSTK is equal to -9.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $175 million for Overstock.com - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 25.741 million for Overstock.com is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Overstock.com at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.


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Stock chart of OSTK Financial statements of OSTK
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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