Intrinsic value of Oxford Immunotec Global - OXFD

Previous Close

$13.50

  Intrinsic Value

$0.68

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-95%

Previous close

$13.50

 
Intrinsic value

$0.68

 
Up/down potential

-95%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of OXFD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  36.51
  36.80
  33.62
  30.76
  28.18
  25.86
  23.78
  21.90
  20.21
  18.69
  17.32
  16.09
  14.98
  13.98
  13.08
  12.27
  11.55
  10.89
  10.30
  9.77
  9.30
  8.87
  8.48
  8.13
  7.82
  7.54
  7.28
  7.05
  6.85
  6.66
  6.50
Revenue, $m
  86
  118
  157
  206
  263
  332
  410
  500
  602
  714
  838
  972
  1,118
  1,274
  1,441
  1,618
  1,805
  2,001
  2,207
  2,423
  2,648
  2,883
  3,128
  3,382
  3,646
  3,921
  4,207
  4,504
  4,812
  5,133
  5,466
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  127
  170
  222
  284
  357
  442
  539
  648
  769
  902
  1,047
  1,203
  1,372
  1,551
  1,741
  1,942
  2,154
  2,376
  2,608
  2,851
  3,103
  3,367
  3,640
  3,925
  4,221
  4,528
  4,848
  5,180
  5,525
  5,884
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
Total operating expenses, $m
  112
  146
  190
  242
  305
  378
  464
  562
  671
  793
  926
  1,072
  1,229
  1,398
  1,578
  1,769
  1,970
  2,183
  2,406
  2,638
  2,882
  3,135
  3,400
  3,674
  3,959
  4,256
  4,564
  4,885
  5,218
  5,564
  5,924
Operating income, $m
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -37
  -41
  -47
  -54
  -61
  -69
  -79
  -89
  -99
  -111
  -123
  -137
  -151
  -166
  -182
  -198
  -215
  -233
  -252
  -272
  -292
  -313
  -335
  -357
  -381
  -405
  -431
  -457
EBITDA, $m
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -30
  -33
  -36
  -40
  -45
  -50
  -55
  -61
  -68
  -75
  -83
  -91
  -99
  -108
  -118
  -127
  -138
  -148
  -160
  -171
  -183
  -196
  -209
  -222
  -237
  -251
  -266
  -282
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  8
  10
  12
  14
  17
  19
  22
  26
  29
  33
  37
  41
  45
  50
  54
  59
  64
  70
  75
  81
  87
  93
  99
  106
Earnings before tax, $m
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -39
  -45
  -52
  -60
  -69
  -79
  -90
  -103
  -116
  -130
  -146
  -163
  -180
  -199
  -218
  -239
  -260
  -283
  -306
  -331
  -356
  -382
  -410
  -438
  -467
  -498
  -530
  -563
Tax expense, $m
  -4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -22
  -30
  -34
  -39
  -45
  -52
  -60
  -69
  -79
  -90
  -103
  -116
  -130
  -146
  -163
  -180
  -199
  -218
  -239
  -260
  -283
  -306
  -331
  -356
  -382
  -410
  -438
  -467
  -498
  -530
  -563

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  59
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  124
  89
  119
  155
  199
  251
  310
  378
  455
  540
  633
  735
  845
  963
  1,089
  1,223
  1,364
  1,513
  1,669
  1,832
  2,002
  2,179
  2,364
  2,556
  2,756
  2,964
  3,180
  3,404
  3,637
  3,880
  4,132
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  65
  89
  119
  155
  199
  251
  310
  378
  455
  540
  633
  735
  845
  963
  1,089
  1,223
  1,364
  1,513
  1,669
  1,832
  2,002
  2,179
  2,364
  2,556
  2,756
  2,964
  3,180
  3,404
  3,637
  3,880
  4,132
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.323
  1.326
  1.319
  1.329
  1.322
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.322
  1.324
  1.322
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.322
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
Average production assets, $m
  22
  29
  39
  51
  66
  83
  103
  125
  150
  178
  209
  243
  279
  319
  360
  404
  451
  500
  552
  606
  662
  721
  782
  846
  912
  980
  1,052
  1,126
  1,203
  1,283
  1,367
Working capital, $m
  64
  7
  9
  12
  15
  19
  24
  29
  35
  41
  49
  56
  65
  74
  84
  94
  105
  116
  128
  141
  154
  167
  181
  196
  211
  227
  244
  261
  279
  298
  317
Total debt, $m
  30
  49
  72
  101
  135
  176
  223
  276
  336
  403
  476
  556
  642
  735
  834
  939
  1,050
  1,166
  1,289
  1,417
  1,550
  1,690
  1,835
  1,986
  2,143
  2,306
  2,475
  2,651
  2,834
  3,025
  3,222
Total liabilities, $m
  51
  70
  93
  122
  156
  197
  244
  297
  357
  424
  497
  577
  663
  756
  855
  960
  1,071
  1,187
  1,310
  1,438
  1,571
  1,711
  1,856
  2,007
  2,164
  2,327
  2,496
  2,672
  2,855
  3,046
  3,243
Total equity, $m
  73
  19
  26
  33
  43
  54
  67
  81
  98
  116
  136
  158
  182
  207
  234
  263
  293
  325
  359
  394
  430
  469
  508
  550
  593
  637
  684
  732
  782
  834
  888
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  124
  89
  119
  155
  199
  251
  311
  378
  455
  540
  633
  735
  845
  963
  1,089
  1,223
  1,364
  1,512
  1,669
  1,832
  2,001
  2,180
  2,364
  2,557
  2,757
  2,964
  3,180
  3,404
  3,637
  3,880
  4,131
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.411
  2.550
  2.830
  3.020
  3.160
  3.260
  3.340
  3.390
  3.440
  3.470
  3.500
  3.520
  3.540
  3.550
  3.560
  3.570
  3.580
  3.590
  3.590
  3.600
  3.600
  3.610
  3.610
  3.610
  3.620
  3.620
  3.620
  3.620
  3.620
  3.630
  3.630
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -22
  -30
  -34
  -39
  -45
  -52
  -60
  -69
  -79
  -90
  -103
  -116
  -130
  -146
  -163
  -180
  -199
  -218
  -239
  -260
  -283
  -306
  -331
  -356
  -382
  -410
  -438
  -467
  -498
  -530
  -563
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  4
  5
  7
  9
  11
  14
  16
  20
  23
  27
  31
  36
  41
  46
  52
  58
  64
  71
  78
  85
  92
  100
  108
  117
  126
  135
  144
  154
  165
  175
Funds from operations, $m
  -30
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -36
  -41
  -46
  -53
  -59
  -67
  -76
  -85
  -95
  -105
  -116
  -128
  -141
  -154
  -168
  -183
  -198
  -214
  -230
  -248
  -265
  -284
  -303
  -323
  -344
  -365
  -388
Change in working capital, $m
  -8
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
Cash from operations, $m
  -22
  -28
  -31
  -35
  -40
  -45
  -51
  -58
  -65
  -74
  -83
  -92
  -103
  -114
  -126
  -139
  -152
  -166
  -180
  -195
  -211
  -228
  -245
  -262
  -281
  -300
  -320
  -340
  -362
  -384
  -407
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -7
  -8
  -11
  -13
  -16
  -19
  -23
  -27
  -31
  -36
  -41
  -46
  -52
  -58
  -64
  -71
  -78
  -85
  -92
  -100
  -108
  -117
  -126
  -135
  -144
  -154
  -165
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -8
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -83
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -30
  -11
  -14
  -17
  -21
  -25
  -31
  -35
  -41
  -47
  -54
  -61
  -67
  -75
  -83
  -90
  -99
  -107
  -116
  -125
  -134
  -144
  -153
  -164
  -174
  -186
  -197
  -209
  -221
  -234
  -248
Free cash flow, $m
  -52
  -38
  -45
  -52
  -61
  -70
  -81
  -93
  -107
  -121
  -136
  -153
  -171
  -189
  -209
  -229
  -250
  -273
  -296
  -320
  -345
  -371
  -398
  -426
  -455
  -485
  -517
  -549
  -583
  -618
  -655
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  29
  19
  23
  29
  34
  40
  47
  53
  60
  67
  73
  80
  86
  93
  99
  105
  111
  117
  122
  128
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  163
  169
  176
  183
  190
  198
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  35
  41
  47
  54
  63
  73
  84
  96
  109
  123
  138
  154
  171
  190
  209
  229
  250
  273
  296
  320
  344
  370
  397
  425
  454
  484
  516
  548
  582
  617
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  29
  54
  64
  76
  88
  103
  120
  137
  156
  176
  196
  218
  240
  264
  289
  314
  340
  367
  395
  424
  454
  483
  515
  548
  582
  617
  653
  692
  731
  772
  815
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -25
  16
  19
  24
  28
  33
  38
  44
  49
  54
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  85
  90
  94
  99
  104
  108
  113
  117
  122
  127
  132
  137
  142
  148
  154
  160
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  20
  -35
  -41
  -47
  -54
  -63
  -73
  -84
  -96
  -109
  -123
  -138
  -154
  -171
  -190
  -209
  -229
  -250
  -273
  -296
  -320
  -344
  -370
  -397
  -425
  -454
  -484
  -516
  -548
  -582
  -617
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  59
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  40
  -21
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -40
  -47
  -54
  -63
  -73
  -84
  -96
  -110
  -124
  -140
  -156
  -174
  -192
  -211
  -232
  -253
  -275
  -298
  -322
  -347
  -373
  -400
  -428
  -457
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  38
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -37
  -37
  -36
  -35
  -34
  -32
  -30
  -27
  -24
  -21
  -18
  -15
  -13
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  65.3
  45.1
  32.5
  24.1
  18.4
  14.3
  11.3
  9.0
  7.3
  6.0
  4.9
  4.1
  3.4
  2.8
  2.4
  2.0
  1.7
  1.5
  1.2
  1.1
  0.9
  0.8
  0.7
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3
  0.2

Oxford Immunotec Global PLC is a diagnostics company. The Company is focused on developing and commercializing tests for under-served immune-regulated conditions. The Company's product lines and development activities principally focus on four areas: infectious diseases, transplantation, autoimmune and inflammatory disease and immune-oncology. Its T-SPOT.TB test is used to test for tuberculosis (TB), infection and leverages its T-SPOT technology platform, which allows it to measure the response of specific immune cells to inform the diagnosis, prognosis and monitoring of patients with immune-regulated conditions. It offers a range of assays for tick-borne diseases, such as Lyme disease, obtained through the acquisitions of Imugen and Immunetics. It has a series of assays for use in blood screening, building upon its expertise in tick-borne disease. Its T-SPOT. CMV and T-SPOT. PRT tests are part of its product line focused on the transplantation market.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Oxford Immunotec Global (OXFD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -13.9
Price to Sales 3.6
Price to Book 4.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -13.9
Price to Free Cash Flow -12.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 36.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 41.1%
Total Debt to Equity 41.1%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -18.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.7%
Return On Total Capital -22.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -28%
Return On Equity -26.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -29.6%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53%
EBITDA Margin -26.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -33.9%
Operating Margin -30.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -36.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -30.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -37.4%
Net Profit Margin -25.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -35.9%
Effective Tax Rate 15.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

OXFD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OXFD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $86 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Oxford Immunotec Global. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Oxford Immunotec Global. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OXFD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 36.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for OXFD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Oxford Immunotec Global, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Oxford Immunotec Global.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OXFD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 108.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $19 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OXFD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Oxford Immunotec Global.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Oxford Immunotec Global. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OXFD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OXFD are equal to 25%.

Life of production assets of 7.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Oxford Immunotec Global operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OXFD is equal to 5.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $73 million for Oxford Immunotec Global - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 25.514 million for Oxford Immunotec Global is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Oxford Immunotec Global at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Oxford Immunotec reports 3Q loss   [Oct-31-17 07:33AM  Associated Press]
▶ Oxford Immunotec reports 2Q loss   [Aug-01-17 09:36PM  Associated Press]
▶ Oxford Immunotec reports 1Q loss   [May-02-17 07:37AM  Associated Press]
▶ Oxford Immunotec reports 4Q loss   [Feb-28-17 05:37PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Oxford Immunotec Global PLC (OXFD) a Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-13-16 02:40AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Oxford Immunotec Acquires Immunetics, Inc.   [Oct-12-16 04:07PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Oxford Immunotec Acquires Immunetics, Inc.   [04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of OXFD
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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