Intrinsic value of Oxford Immunotec Global - OXFD

Previous Close

$11.51

  Intrinsic Value

$0.66

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-94%

Previous close

$11.51

 
Intrinsic value

$0.66

 
Up/down potential

-94%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of OXFD stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  36.51
  15.40
  14.36
  13.42
  12.58
  11.82
  11.14
  10.53
  9.97
  9.48
  9.03
  8.63
  8.26
  7.94
  7.64
  7.38
  7.14
  6.93
  6.73
  6.56
  6.40
  6.26
  6.14
  6.02
  5.92
  5.83
  5.75
  5.67
  5.60
  5.54
  5.49
Revenue, $m
  86
  99
  113
  129
  145
  162
  180
  199
  219
  240
  261
  284
  307
  332
  357
  383
  411
  439
  469
  500
  532
  565
  600
  636
  673
  713
  754
  796
  841
  888
  936
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  107
  123
  139
  156
  175
  194
  215
  236
  258
  282
  306
  331
  357
  384
  413
  442
  473
  505
  538
  572
  608
  645
  684
  725
  767
  811
  857
  905
  955
  1,008
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
Total operating expenses, $m
  112
  126
  143
  159
  177
  196
  216
  238
  259
  282
  306
  331
  357
  383
  411
  441
  470
  502
  535
  568
  603
  640
  678
  718
  759
  802
  847
  894
  943
  994
  1,048
Operating income, $m
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -111
EBITDA, $m
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
Earnings before tax, $m
  -26
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
Tax expense, $m
  -4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -22
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  59
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  124
  75
  86
  97
  110
  122
  136
  150
  165
  181
  198
  215
  232
  251
  270
  290
  311
  332
  354
  378
  402
  427
  453
  480
  509
  539
  570
  602
  636
  671
  708
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  65
  75
  86
  97
  110
  122
  136
  150
  165
  181
  198
  215
  232
  251
  270
  290
  311
  332
  354
  378
  402
  427
  453
  480
  509
  539
  570
  602
  636
  671
  708
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.323
  1.320
  1.314
  1.330
  1.318
  1.328
  1.324
  1.327
  1.327
  1.326
  1.318
  1.321
  1.323
  1.323
  1.322
  1.321
  1.322
  1.322
  1.325
  1.323
  1.323
  1.323
  1.325
  1.325
  1.322
  1.323
  1.323
  1.322
  1.322
  1.323
  1.322
Average production assets, $m
  22
  25
  28
  32
  36
  41
  45
  50
  55
  60
  65
  71
  77
  83
  89
  96
  103
  110
  117
  125
  133
  141
  150
  159
  168
  178
  188
  199
  210
  222
  234
Working capital, $m
  64
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
Total debt, $m
  30
  38
  46
  55
  65
  75
  86
  97
  109
  121
  134
  147
  161
  176
  191
  207
  223
  240
  257
  275
  294
  314
  335
  356
  379
  402
  426
  451
  478
  506
  535
Total liabilities, $m
  51
  59
  67
  76
  86
  96
  107
  118
  130
  142
  155
  168
  182
  197
  212
  228
  244
  261
  278
  296
  315
  335
  356
  377
  400
  423
  447
  472
  499
  527
  556
Total equity, $m
  73
  16
  18
  21
  24
  26
  29
  32
  36
  39
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  62
  67
  71
  76
  81
  86
  92
  97
  103
  109
  116
  122
  129
  137
  144
  152
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  124
  75
  85
  97
  110
  122
  136
  150
  166
  181
  197
  214
  232
  251
  270
  290
  311
  332
  354
  377
  401
  427
  453
  480
  509
  539
  569
  601
  636
  671
  708
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.411
  2.350
  2.510
  2.650
  2.760
  2.850
  2.930
  3.000
  3.060
  3.110
  3.160
  3.200
  3.230
  3.260
  3.290
  3.310
  3.340
  3.360
  3.380
  3.390
  3.410
  3.420
  3.440
  3.450
  3.460
  3.470
  3.480
  3.490
  3.500
  3.510
  3.510
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215
  0.215

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -22
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
Funds from operations, $m
  -30
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -99
Change in working capital, $m
  -8
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
Cash from operations, $m
  -22
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
New CAPEX, $m
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -30
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
Free cash flow, $m
  -52
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -130
  -136
  -142
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  29
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  104
  109
  114
  120
  125
  131
  137
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  29
  39
  41
  44
  47
  49
  53
  55
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  79
  84
  87
  92
  97
  101
  106
  111
  116
  121
  126
  132
  138
  145
  151
  159
  166
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -25
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  20
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -137
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  59
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  35
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  34
  -23
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -24
  -23
  -23
  -23
  -22
  -21
  -20
  -19
  -18
  -16
  -15
  -13
  -12
  -10
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  65.2
  43.7
  29.9
  20.9
  14.9
  10.7
  7.8
  5.8
  4.3
  3.3
  2.5
  1.9
  1.5
  1.1
  0.9
  0.7
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3
  0.2
  0.2
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.1
  0.0
  0.0
  0.0

Oxford Immunotec Global PLC is a diagnostics company. The Company is focused on developing and commercializing tests for under-served immune-regulated conditions. The Company's product lines and development activities principally focus on four areas: infectious diseases, transplantation, autoimmune and inflammatory disease and immune-oncology. Its T-SPOT.TB test is used to test for tuberculosis (TB), infection and leverages its T-SPOT technology platform, which allows it to measure the response of specific immune cells to inform the diagnosis, prognosis and monitoring of patients with immune-regulated conditions. It offers a range of assays for tick-borne diseases, such as Lyme disease, obtained through the acquisitions of Imugen and Immunetics. It has a series of assays for use in blood screening, building upon its expertise in tick-borne disease. Its T-SPOT. CMV and T-SPOT. PRT tests are part of its product line focused on the transplantation market.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Oxford Immunotec Global (OXFD)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -11.8
Price to Sales 3
Price to Book 3.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -11.8
Price to Free Cash Flow -10.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 36.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -33.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 41.1%
Total Debt to Equity 41.1%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -18.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.7%
Return On Total Capital -22.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -28%
Return On Equity -26.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -29.6%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 54.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 53%
EBITDA Margin -26.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -33.9%
Operating Margin -30.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -36.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -30.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -37.4%
Net Profit Margin -25.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -35.9%
Effective Tax Rate 15.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

OXFD stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OXFD stock intrinsic value calculation we used $86 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Oxford Immunotec Global. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Oxford Immunotec Global. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OXFD stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 15.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for OXFD is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Oxford Immunotec Global, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Oxford Immunotec Global.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OXFD stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 108.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $19 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OXFD stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Oxford Immunotec Global.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Oxford Immunotec Global. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OXFD stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OXFD are equal to 25%.

Life of production assets of 7.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Oxford Immunotec Global operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OXFD is equal to 5.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $73 million for Oxford Immunotec Global - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 26.041 million for Oxford Immunotec Global is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Oxford Immunotec Global at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
VIVO Meridian Biosc 15.15 15.10  hold
QDEL Quidel 46.93 8.15  str.sell

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Oxford Immunotec reports 3Q loss   [Oct-31-17 07:33AM  Associated Press]
▶ Oxford Immunotec reports 2Q loss   [Aug-01-17 09:36PM  Associated Press]
▶ Oxford Immunotec reports 1Q loss   [May-02-17 07:37AM  Associated Press]
▶ Oxford Immunotec reports 4Q loss   [Feb-28-17 05:37PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Oxford Immunotec Global PLC (OXFD) a Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-13-16 02:40AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Oxford Immunotec Acquires Immunetics, Inc.   [Oct-12-16 04:07PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Oxford Immunotec Acquires Immunetics, Inc.   [04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of OXFD
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

FREE DOWNLOAD
Follow us on:   twitter   twitter   twitter   twitter

ASSET ALLOCATION

About X-FIN       Site news       Privacy policy       Terms of use       FAQ

Copyright © X-FIN.com 2005-2018. All rigths reserved.