Intrinsic value of Oxford Industries - OXM

Previous Close

$60.16

  Intrinsic Value

$52.15

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-13%

  Value-price divergence*

+8%

Previous close

$60.16

 
Intrinsic value

$52.15

 
Up/down potential

-13%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

+8%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of OXM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  5.57
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
Revenue, $m
  1,023
  1,087
  1,155
  1,224
  1,297
  1,373
  1,452
  1,535
  1,621
  1,711
  1,806
  1,904
  2,007
  2,115
  2,228
  2,346
  2,469
  2,599
  2,734
  2,876
  3,025
  3,181
  3,345
  3,516
  3,696
  3,885
  4,082
  4,290
  4,508
  4,736
  4,976
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  978
  1,038
  1,101
  1,166
  1,234
  1,305
  1,379
  1,456
  1,536
  1,621
  1,703
  1,795
  1,891
  1,992
  2,097
  2,208
  2,323
  2,445
  2,572
  2,705
  2,844
  2,991
  3,144
  3,305
  3,473
  3,650
  3,836
  4,031
  4,235
  4,449
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  933
  978
  1,038
  1,101
  1,166
  1,234
  1,305
  1,379
  1,456
  1,536
  1,621
  1,703
  1,795
  1,891
  1,992
  2,097
  2,208
  2,323
  2,445
  2,572
  2,705
  2,844
  2,991
  3,144
  3,305
  3,473
  3,650
  3,836
  4,031
  4,235
  4,449
Operating income, $m
  90
  109
  116
  124
  131
  139
  148
  157
  166
  175
  185
  202
  212
  224
  236
  248
  261
  275
  289
  304
  320
  337
  354
  372
  391
  411
  432
  454
  477
  501
  527
EBITDA, $m
  132
  155
  165
  175
  185
  196
  208
  219
  232
  245
  258
  272
  287
  302
  318
  335
  353
  371
  391
  411
  432
  455
  478
  503
  528
  555
  584
  613
  644
  677
  711
Interest expense (income), $m
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  53
Earnings before tax, $m
  86
  105
  111
  118
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  163
  172
  187
  197
  207
  217
  228
  240
  252
  264
  278
  292
  306
  321
  337
  354
  372
  390
  409
  430
  451
  473
Tax expense, $m
  31
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  96
  100
  105
  111
  116
  122
  128
Net income, $m
  52
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  102
  107
  113
  119
  126
  137
  144
  151
  159
  167
  175
  184
  193
  203
  213
  223
  235
  246
  259
  271
  285
  299
  314
  329
  346

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  685
  722
  766
  812
  861
  911
  964
  1,019
  1,076
  1,136
  1,198
  1,264
  1,332
  1,403
  1,478
  1,556
  1,638
  1,724
  1,814
  1,909
  2,007
  2,111
  2,219
  2,333
  2,453
  2,578
  2,709
  2,847
  2,991
  3,143
  3,302
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  679
  722
  766
  812
  861
  911
  964
  1,019
  1,076
  1,136
  1,198
  1,264
  1,332
  1,403
  1,478
  1,556
  1,638
  1,724
  1,814
  1,909
  2,007
  2,111
  2,219
  2,333
  2,453
  2,578
  2,709
  2,847
  2,991
  3,143
  3,302
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.507
  1.506
  1.508
  1.507
  1.506
  1.507
  1.506
  1.506
  1.507
  1.506
  1.508
  1.506
  1.507
  1.507
  1.507
  1.508
  1.507
  1.508
  1.507
  1.507
  1.507
  1.507
  1.507
  1.507
  1.507
  1.507
  1.507
  1.507
  1.507
  1.507
  1.507
Average production assets, $m
  349
  371
  394
  418
  442
  468
  495
  523
  553
  584
  616
  649
  684
  721
  760
  800
  842
  886
  932
  981
  1,032
  1,085
  1,141
  1,199
  1,260
  1,325
  1,392
  1,463
  1,537
  1,615
  1,697
Working capital, $m
  101
  101
  107
  114
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
  159
  168
  177
  187
  197
  207
  218
  230
  242
  254
  267
  281
  296
  311
  327
  344
  361
  380
  399
  419
  440
  463
Total debt, $m
  92
  111
  132
  153
  175
  198
  222
  246
  273
  300
  328
  358
  389
  422
  456
  491
  528
  568
  608
  651
  696
  743
  793
  845
  899
  956
  1,016
  1,078
  1,144
  1,213
  1,285
Total liabilities, $m
  309
  328
  349
  370
  392
  415
  439
  463
  490
  517
  545
  575
  606
  639
  673
  708
  745
  785
  825
  868
  913
  960
  1,010
  1,062
  1,116
  1,173
  1,233
  1,295
  1,361
  1,430
  1,502
Total equity, $m
  376
  393
  418
  443
  469
  497
  525
  555
  586
  619
  653
  689
  726
  765
  806
  848
  893
  940
  989
  1,040
  1,094
  1,150
  1,210
  1,272
  1,337
  1,405
  1,476
  1,551
  1,630
  1,713
  1,800
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  685
  721
  767
  813
  861
  912
  964
  1,018
  1,076
  1,136
  1,198
  1,264
  1,332
  1,404
  1,479
  1,556
  1,638
  1,725
  1,814
  1,908
  2,007
  2,110
  2,220
  2,334
  2,453
  2,578
  2,709
  2,846
  2,991
  3,143
  3,302
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.245
  0.280
  0.320
  0.340
  0.370
  0.400
  0.420
  0.440
  0.460
  0.480
  0.500
  0.520
  0.540
  0.550
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.710
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.545
  0.545
  0.545
  0.545
  0.545
  0.545
  0.545
  0.545
  0.545
  0.545
  0.545
  0.545
  0.545
  0.545
  0.545
  0.545
  0.545
  0.545
  0.545
  0.545
  0.545
  0.545
  0.545
  0.545
  0.545
  0.545
  0.545
  0.545
  0.545
  0.545
  0.545

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  52
  77
  81
  86
  91
  96
  102
  107
  113
  119
  126
  137
  144
  151
  159
  167
  175
  184
  193
  203
  213
  223
  235
  246
  259
  271
  285
  299
  314
  329
  346
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  42
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  71
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  107
  112
  118
  124
  130
  137
  144
  151
  159
  167
  176
  184
Funds from operations, $m
  128
  123
  130
  137
  145
  153
  161
  170
  179
  189
  198
  207
  218
  229
  241
  254
  267
  280
  294
  309
  325
  341
  359
  377
  395
  415
  436
  458
  481
  505
  530
Change in working capital, $m
  9
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Cash from operations, $m
  119
  117
  124
  131
  138
  146
  154
  162
  171
  180
  190
  198
  208
  219
  231
  243
  255
  268
  282
  296
  311
  327
  343
  361
  379
  398
  418
  439
  461
  484
  508
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -96
  -101
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -167
  -176
New CAPEX, $m
  -49
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
  -82
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -146
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -142
  -149
  -158
  -165
  -174
  -182
  -191
  -201
  -211
  -222
  -233
  -245
  -258
Free cash flow, $m
  -27
  57
  61
  64
  68
  72
  76
  80
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  108
  114
  120
  126
  132
  139
  146
  154
  162
  170
  178
  187
  196
  206
  217
  227
  239
  250
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  48
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  45
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  18
  76
  81
  85
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  127
  134
  141
  148
  155
  163
  172
  180
  189
  199
  209
  219
  230
  241
  253
  266
  279
  293
  308
  323
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -42
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -87
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  59
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  80
  84
  89
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  131
  138
  145
  152
  160
  168
  176
  185
  194
  204
  214
  225
  236
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  56
  52
  52
  52
  52
  52
  51
  50
  48
  46
  44
  41
  39
  36
  33
  30
  27
  24
  21
  18
  16
  13
  11
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Oxford Industries, Inc. is an apparel company. The Company designs, sources, markets and distributes products bearing the trademarks of its owned Tommy Bahama, Lilly Pulitzer and Southern Tide lifestyle brands, other owned brands and licensed brands, as well as private label apparel products. It distributes its lifestyle branded products through its direct to consumer channels, consisting of its Tommy Bahama and Lilly Pulitzer full-price retail stores and its e-commerce sites for Tommy Bahama, Lilly Pulitzer and Southern Tide, and through its wholesale distribution channels. As of January 28, 2017, the Company operated 128 Tommy Bahama and 40 Lilly Pulitzer full-price retail stores. Tommy Bahama designs, sources, markets and distributes men's and women's sportswear and related products. Tommy Bahama products are available in the Tommy Bahama stores and on its Website, tommybahama.com, as well as in department stores and independent specialty stores throughout the United States.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Oxford Industries (OXM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 19.4
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 2.7
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 5.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -32.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 24.5%
Total Debt to Equity 24.5%
Interest Coverage 30
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Return On Total Capital 12.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Return On Equity 14.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.8%
Asset Turnover 1.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 57%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 57%
EBITDA Margin 12.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.6%
Operating Margin 8.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.3%
Net Profit Margin 5.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Effective Tax Rate 36%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38%
Payout Ratio 34.6%

OXM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the OXM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1023 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Oxford Industries. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Oxford Industries. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our OXM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for OXM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Oxford Industries, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Oxford Industries.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of OXM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for OXM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.4% for Oxford Industries.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Oxford Industries. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the OXM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for OXM are equal to 34.1%.

Life of production assets of 9.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Oxford Industries operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for OXM is equal to 9.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $376 million for Oxford Industries - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 17.325 million for Oxford Industries is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Oxford Industries at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Oxford Industries tops 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-31-17 09:30PM  Associated Press]
▶ Oxford Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Jun-15-17 08:45AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Oxford Industries beats 1Q profit forecasts   [04:19PM  Associated Press]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for April 13th   [Apr-13-17 08:12AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for April 10th   [Apr-10-17 09:55AM  Zacks]
▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for March 27th   [Mar-27-17 11:46AM  Zacks]
▶ Oxford Industries misses Street 4Q forecasts   [Mar-23-17 04:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ Kate Spade: And May the Highest Bidder Win!   [Dec-30-16 02:12PM  at Barrons.com]
▶ Oxford to Present at the ICR Conference 2017   [Dec-27-16 09:39AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is Q2 Holdings Inc (QTWO) Going to Burn Investors?   [Dec-09-16 02:43PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Do Hedge Funds Love Oxford Industries, Inc. (OXM)?   [Dec-05-16 01:53AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Oxford Announces Webcast of 2016 Investor Day   [Oct-14-16 07:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
Financial statements of OXM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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