Intrinsic value of Pandora Media - P

Previous Close

$7.93

  Intrinsic Value

$0.26

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-97%

  Value-price divergence*

-48%

Previous close

$7.93

 
Intrinsic value

$0.26

 
Up/down potential

-97%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-48%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of P stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  18.99
  9.90
  9.41
  8.97
  8.57
  8.21
  7.89
  7.60
  7.34
  7.11
  6.90
  6.71
  6.54
  6.38
  6.25
  6.12
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
Revenue, $m
  1,385
  1,522
  1,665
  1,815
  1,970
  2,132
  2,300
  2,475
  2,657
  2,846
  3,042
  3,246
  3,459
  3,680
  3,909
  4,149
  4,398
  4,658
  4,929
  5,211
  5,506
  5,815
  6,136
  6,473
  6,825
  7,193
  7,577
  7,980
  8,402
  8,844
  9,306
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,741
  1,902
  2,070
  2,245
  2,427
  2,616
  2,813
  3,017
  3,229
  3,450
  3,648
  3,887
  4,135
  4,393
  4,662
  4,942
  5,234
  5,539
  5,857
  6,188
  6,535
  6,896
  7,274
  7,670
  8,083
  8,516
  8,969
  9,443
  9,939
  10,459
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,704
  1,741
  1,902
  2,070
  2,245
  2,427
  2,616
  2,813
  3,017
  3,229
  3,450
  3,648
  3,887
  4,135
  4,393
  4,662
  4,942
  5,234
  5,539
  5,857
  6,188
  6,535
  6,896
  7,274
  7,670
  8,083
  8,516
  8,969
  9,443
  9,939
  10,459
Operating income, $m
  -319
  -219
  -237
  -255
  -275
  -295
  -316
  -337
  -360
  -383
  -407
  -402
  -428
  -456
  -484
  -514
  -545
  -577
  -610
  -645
  -682
  -720
  -760
  -802
  -845
  -891
  -938
  -988
  -1,040
  -1,095
  -1,152
EBITDA, $m
  -258
  -168
  -184
  -200
  -217
  -235
  -254
  -273
  -293
  -314
  -336
  -358
  -382
  -406
  -431
  -458
  -485
  -514
  -544
  -575
  -608
  -642
  -677
  -714
  -753
  -794
  -836
  -881
  -927
  -976
  -1,027
Interest expense (income), $m
  7
  12
  14
  16
  19
  21
  24
  27
  29
  32
  35
  38
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
  60
  64
  69
  73
  78
  83
  88
  93
  99
  105
  111
  117
  124
  131
Earnings before tax, $m
  -343
  -231
  -251
  -272
  -294
  -316
  -339
  -364
  -389
  -415
  -443
  -440
  -470
  -501
  -533
  -566
  -601
  -637
  -675
  -714
  -755
  -798
  -843
  -889
  -938
  -989
  -1,043
  -1,099
  -1,158
  -1,219
  -1,283
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -343
  -231
  -251
  -272
  -294
  -316
  -339
  -364
  -389
  -415
  -443
  -440
  -470
  -501
  -533
  -566
  -601
  -637
  -675
  -714
  -755
  -798
  -843
  -889
  -938
  -989
  -1,043
  -1,099
  -1,158
  -1,219
  -1,283

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  237
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,185
  1,042
  1,140
  1,242
  1,349
  1,459
  1,575
  1,694
  1,819
  1,948
  2,082
  2,222
  2,367
  2,518
  2,676
  2,840
  3,010
  3,188
  3,373
  3,567
  3,769
  3,980
  4,200
  4,430
  4,671
  4,923
  5,186
  5,462
  5,751
  6,053
  6,370
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  948
  1,042
  1,140
  1,242
  1,349
  1,459
  1,575
  1,694
  1,819
  1,948
  2,082
  2,222
  2,367
  2,518
  2,676
  2,840
  3,010
  3,188
  3,373
  3,567
  3,769
  3,980
  4,200
  4,430
  4,671
  4,923
  5,186
  5,462
  5,751
  6,053
  6,370
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.461
  1.461
  1.461
  1.461
  1.460
  1.461
  1.460
  1.461
  1.461
  1.461
  1.461
  1.461
  1.461
  1.461
  1.461
  1.461
  1.461
  1.461
  1.461
  1.461
  1.461
  1.461
  1.461
  1.461
  1.461
  1.461
  1.461
  1.461
  1.461
  1.461
  1.461
Average production assets, $m
  134
  148
  162
  176
  191
  207
  223
  240
  258
  276
  295
  315
  335
  357
  379
  402
  427
  452
  478
  505
  534
  564
  595
  628
  662
  698
  735
  774
  815
  858
  903
Working capital, $m
  372
  148
  162
  176
  191
  207
  223
  240
  258
  276
  295
  315
  335
  357
  379
  402
  427
  452
  478
  505
  534
  564
  595
  628
  662
  698
  735
  774
  815
  858
  903
Total debt, $m
  342
  405
  470
  538
  609
  683
  760
  839
  922
  1,008
  1,098
  1,191
  1,288
  1,388
  1,493
  1,602
  1,716
  1,834
  1,958
  2,087
  2,221
  2,362
  2,508
  2,662
  2,822
  2,990
  3,165
  3,349
  3,541
  3,742
  3,953
Total liabilities, $m
  631
  694
  759
  827
  898
  972
  1,049
  1,128
  1,211
  1,297
  1,387
  1,480
  1,577
  1,677
  1,782
  1,891
  2,005
  2,123
  2,247
  2,376
  2,510
  2,651
  2,797
  2,951
  3,111
  3,279
  3,454
  3,638
  3,830
  4,031
  4,242
Total equity, $m
  554
  348
  381
  415
  450
  487
  526
  566
  607
  651
  696
  742
  791
  841
  894
  948
  1,005
  1,065
  1,127
  1,191
  1,259
  1,329
  1,403
  1,480
  1,560
  1,644
  1,732
  1,824
  1,921
  2,022
  2,128
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,185
  1,042
  1,140
  1,242
  1,348
  1,459
  1,575
  1,694
  1,818
  1,948
  2,083
  2,222
  2,368
  2,518
  2,676
  2,839
  3,010
  3,188
  3,374
  3,567
  3,769
  3,980
  4,200
  4,431
  4,671
  4,923
  5,186
  5,462
  5,751
  6,053
  6,370
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.617
  1.160
  1.230
  1.300
  1.350
  1.400
  1.440
  1.480
  1.520
  1.550
  1.580
  1.600
  1.630
  1.650
  1.670
  1.690
  1.710
  1.720
  1.740
  1.750
  1.760
  1.780
  1.790
  1.800
  1.810
  1.820
  1.830
  1.840
  1.840
  1.850
  1.860
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334
  0.334

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -343
  -231
  -251
  -272
  -294
  -316
  -339
  -364
  -389
  -415
  -443
  -440
  -470
  -501
  -533
  -566
  -601
  -637
  -675
  -714
  -755
  -798
  -843
  -889
  -938
  -989
  -1,043
  -1,099
  -1,158
  -1,219
  -1,283
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  61
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  66
  69
  72
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  108
  113
  119
  125
Funds from operations, $m
  -239
  -180
  -198
  -217
  -236
  -257
  -278
  -300
  -323
  -346
  -371
  -397
  -423
  -451
  -480
  -510
  -541
  -574
  -608
  -644
  -681
  -719
  -760
  -802
  -846
  -893
  -941
  -991
  -1,044
  -1,100
  -1,158
Change in working capital, $m
  -57
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
Cash from operations, $m
  -182
  -193
  -212
  -231
  -251
  -272
  -294
  -317
  -340
  -365
  -390
  -417
  -444
  -473
  -502
  -533
  -566
  -599
  -634
  -671
  -709
  -749
  -791
  -835
  -880
  -928
  -978
  -1,031
  -1,085
  -1,143
  -1,203
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -87
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -108
  -113
  -119
New CAPEX, $m
  -90
  -14
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -52
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -39
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -89
  -93
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -116
  -121
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -149
  -156
  -164
Free cash flow, $m
  -234
  -226
  -246
  -268
  -291
  -315
  -339
  -365
  -391
  -419
  -447
  -477
  -508
  -541
  -574
  -609
  -646
  -684
  -723
  -765
  -808
  -853
  -901
  -950
  -1,002
  -1,056
  -1,112
  -1,172
  -1,234
  -1,299
  -1,367
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  90
  63
  65
  68
  71
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  109
  114
  118
  124
  129
  135
  140
  147
  153
  160
  168
  175
  184
  192
  201
  211
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  3
  262
  284
  306
  329
  353
  378
  404
  431
  459
  488
  487
  519
  551
  585
  621
  658
  696
  736
  778
  822
  868
  916
  966
  1,019
  1,074
  1,131
  1,191
  1,254
  1,320
  1,389
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  100
  325
  349
  374
  400
  427
  455
  484
  514
  545
  577
  580
  616
  652
  690
  730
  772
  814
  860
  907
  957
  1,008
  1,063
  1,119
  1,179
  1,242
  1,306
  1,375
  1,446
  1,521
  1,600
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -135
  99
  103
  106
  109
  112
  116
  119
  122
  126
  130
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  142
  149
  155
  162
  170
  177
  185
  194
  203
  213
  223
  233
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  189
  -262
  -284
  -306
  -329
  -353
  -378
  -404
  -431
  -459
  -488
  -487
  -519
  -551
  -585
  -621
  -658
  -696
  -736
  -778
  -822
  -868
  -916
  -966
  -1,019
  -1,074
  -1,131
  -1,191
  -1,254
  -1,320
  -1,389
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  237
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  74
  -181
  -200
  -220
  -241
  -262
  -285
  -308
  -333
  -358
  -384
  -412
  -440
  -469
  -500
  -532
  -565
  -600
  -636
  -674
  -713
  -754
  -797
  -841
  -888
  -937
  -988
  -1,042
  -1,097
  -1,156
Discount rate, %
 
  6.60
  6.93
  7.28
  7.64
  8.02
  8.42
  8.84
  9.29
  9.75
  10.24
  10.75
  11.29
  11.85
  12.45
  13.07
  13.72
  14.41
  15.13
  15.88
  16.68
  17.51
  18.39
  19.31
  20.27
  21.29
  22.35
  23.47
  24.64
  25.87
  27.17
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  70
  -158
  -162
  -164
  -164
  -162
  -157
  -152
  -144
  -135
  -125
  -114
  -103
  -91
  -79
  -68
  -57
  -48
  -39
  -31
  -24
  -18
  -14
  -10
  -7
  -5
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  80.2
  64.5
  52.0
  42.0
  34.1
  27.7
  22.5
  18.3
  15.0
  12.2
  10.1
  8.4
  6.9
  5.7
  4.7
  3.9
  3.3
  2.7
  2.2
  1.9
  1.5
  1.3
  1.1
  0.9
  0.7
  0.6
  0.5
  0.4
  0.3
  0.3

Pandora Media, Inc. (Pandora) is a music discovery platform, offering a personalized experience for each of its listeners wherever and whenever they want to listen to music, whether through earbuds, car speakers or live on stage. The Company delivers targeted messages to its listeners using a combination of audio, display and video advertisements. Its segments include Pandora-Internet Radio Service and Ticketfly. As of December 31, 2016, it provided Pandora service through two models: advertising-supported service and subscription service-Pandora Plus. Pandora is integrated with connected devices, including automobiles, automotive aftermarket devices and consumer electronic devices. Its Ticketfly service is a cloud ticketing platform for live events. It operates ticketing service through its subsidiary, Ticketfly, a live events technology company that provides ticketing and marketing software and services for its clients, which are venues and event promoters, across North America.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Pandora Media (P)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -5.4
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book 3.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -10.2
Price to Free Cash Flow -6.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 19%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 181.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 25.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 61.7%
Total Debt to Equity 61.7%
Interest Coverage -48
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -27.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.3%
Return On Total Capital -36.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -21.3%
Return On Equity -52.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -28%
Asset Turnover 1.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 35.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.1%
EBITDA Margin -19.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -11.4%
Operating Margin -23%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.6%
Pre-Tax Margin -24.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.2%
Net Profit Margin -24.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -14.2%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

P stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the P stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1385 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Pandora Media. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Pandora Media. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our P stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 9.9% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.6%, whose default value for P is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Pandora Media, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Pandora Media.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of P stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 114.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for P stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Pandora Media.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Pandora Media. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the P stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for P are equal to 9.7%.

Life of production assets of 7.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Pandora Media operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for P is equal to 9.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $554 million for Pandora Media - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 233.911 million for Pandora Media is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Pandora Media at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.

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▶ Pandora Earnings: The Good, Bad, and Ugly   [01:36PM  Barrons.com]
Financial statements of P
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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