Intrinsic value of VeriFone Systems - PAY

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$18.54

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$18.54

 
Intrinsic value

$15.55

 
Up/down potential

-16%

 
Rating

hold

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PAY stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -0.40
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,992
  2,032
  2,079
  2,132
  2,192
  2,258
  2,331
  2,411
  2,497
  2,589
  2,689
  2,795
  2,908
  3,029
  3,158
  3,294
  3,438
  3,591
  3,752
  3,923
  4,103
  4,294
  4,494
  4,706
  4,928
  5,163
  5,410
  5,670
  5,944
  6,232
  6,534
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,920
  1,962
  2,009
  2,062
  2,122
  2,187
  2,257
  2,334
  2,416
  2,505
  2,488
  2,589
  2,697
  2,811
  2,932
  3,061
  3,197
  3,341
  3,493
  3,653
  3,823
  4,001
  4,189
  4,388
  4,597
  4,816
  5,048
  5,292
  5,548
  5,817
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,959
  1,920
  1,962
  2,009
  2,062
  2,122
  2,187
  2,257
  2,334
  2,416
  2,505
  2,488
  2,589
  2,697
  2,811
  2,932
  3,061
  3,197
  3,341
  3,493
  3,653
  3,823
  4,001
  4,189
  4,388
  4,597
  4,816
  5,048
  5,292
  5,548
  5,817
Operating income, $m
  33
  112
  117
  123
  130
  137
  145
  154
  163
  173
  184
  307
  319
  332
  346
  361
  377
  394
  412
  430
  450
  471
  493
  516
  541
  567
  594
  622
  652
  684
  717
EBITDA, $m
  212
  281
  287
  294
  303
  312
  322
  333
  345
  357
  371
  386
  402
  418
  436
  455
  475
  496
  518
  542
  567
  593
  620
  650
  680
  713
  747
  783
  821
  860
  902
Interest expense (income), $m
  30
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  80
  85
  90
  95
  101
  107
  113
  120
  127
  134
  142
  150
Earnings before tax, $m
  2
  82
  86
  90
  95
  101
  107
  114
  121
  129
  137
  257
  266
  276
  287
  298
  310
  323
  336
  350
  365
  381
  398
  415
  434
  453
  474
  495
  518
  542
  567
Tax expense, $m
  12
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  69
  72
  75
  77
  81
  84
  87
  91
  95
  99
  103
  107
  112
  117
  122
  128
  134
  140
  146
  153
Net income, $m
  -9
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  94
  100
  187
  194
  202
  209
  218
  226
  236
  246
  256
  267
  278
  290
  303
  317
  331
  346
  361
  378
  395
  414

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  148
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  2,495
  2,393
  2,448
  2,511
  2,582
  2,660
  2,746
  2,839
  2,941
  3,050
  3,167
  3,292
  3,426
  3,568
  3,719
  3,880
  4,050
  4,230
  4,420
  4,621
  4,833
  5,057
  5,294
  5,543
  5,805
  6,081
  6,372
  6,679
  7,001
  7,340
  7,696
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  2,347
  2,393
  2,448
  2,511
  2,582
  2,660
  2,746
  2,839
  2,941
  3,050
  3,167
  3,292
  3,426
  3,568
  3,719
  3,880
  4,050
  4,230
  4,420
  4,621
  4,833
  5,057
  5,294
  5,543
  5,805
  6,081
  6,372
  6,679
  7,001
  7,340
  7,696
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
  0.849
Average production assets, $m
  508
  518
  530
  544
  559
  576
  594
  615
  637
  660
  686
  713
  742
  772
  805
  840
  877
  916
  957
  1,000
  1,046
  1,095
  1,146
  1,200
  1,257
  1,317
  1,380
  1,446
  1,516
  1,589
  1,666
Working capital, $m
  218
  138
  141
  145
  149
  154
  159
  164
  170
  176
  183
  190
  198
  206
  215
  224
  234
  244
  255
  267
  279
  292
  306
  320
  335
  351
  368
  386
  404
  424
  444
Total debt, $m
  926
  892
  929
  973
  1,021
  1,075
  1,134
  1,199
  1,268
  1,343
  1,424
  1,510
  1,602
  1,700
  1,804
  1,914
  2,031
  2,155
  2,286
  2,424
  2,570
  2,724
  2,887
  3,058
  3,239
  3,429
  3,629
  3,840
  4,062
  4,295
  4,540
Total liabilities, $m
  1,681
  1,647
  1,684
  1,728
  1,776
  1,830
  1,889
  1,954
  2,023
  2,098
  2,179
  2,265
  2,357
  2,455
  2,559
  2,669
  2,786
  2,910
  3,041
  3,179
  3,325
  3,479
  3,642
  3,813
  3,994
  4,184
  4,384
  4,595
  4,817
  5,050
  5,295
Total equity, $m
  814
  747
  764
  783
  806
  830
  857
  886
  918
  952
  988
  1,027
  1,069
  1,113
  1,160
  1,210
  1,263
  1,320
  1,379
  1,442
  1,508
  1,578
  1,652
  1,729
  1,811
  1,897
  1,988
  2,084
  2,184
  2,290
  2,401
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  2,495
  2,394
  2,448
  2,511
  2,582
  2,660
  2,746
  2,840
  2,941
  3,050
  3,167
  3,292
  3,426
  3,568
  3,719
  3,879
  4,049
  4,230
  4,420
  4,621
  4,833
  5,057
  5,294
  5,542
  5,805
  6,081
  6,372
  6,679
  7,001
  7,340
  7,696
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.138
  1.190
  1.220
  1.240
  1.270
  1.300
  1.320
  1.350
  1.380
  1.410
  1.440
  1.470
  1.500
  1.530
  1.550
  1.580
  1.610
  1.630
  1.660
  1.680
  1.700
  1.730
  1.750
  1.770
  1.790
  1.810
  1.830
  1.840
  1.860
  1.880
  1.890
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.284
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312
  0.312

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -9
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  94
  100
  187
  194
  202
  209
  218
  226
  236
  246
  256
  267
  278
  290
  303
  317
  331
  346
  361
  378
  395
  414
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  179
  169
  170
  171
  173
  175
  177
  179
  182
  184
  187
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  122
  127
  133
  140
  146
  153
  161
  168
  177
  185
Funds from operations, $m
  165
  228
  233
  237
  243
  249
  255
  262
  270
  278
  287
  267
  277
  288
  299
  311
  324
  337
  352
  367
  383
  400
  418
  436
  456
  477
  499
  522
  546
  572
  599
Change in working capital, $m
  -29
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
Cash from operations, $m
  194
  226
  229
  234
  239
  244
  250
  257
  264
  272
  280
  259
  269
  279
  290
  302
  314
  327
  341
  355
  371
  387
  404
  422
  441
  461
  482
  504
  528
  552
  578
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -56
  -58
  -59
  -60
  -62
  -64
  -66
  -68
  -71
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -161
  -168
  -177
New CAPEX, $m
  -105
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -275
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -165
  -173
  -181
  -190
  -200
  -209
  -219
  -231
  -241
  -254
Free cash flow, $m
  -81
  159
  160
  161
  163
  165
  168
  171
  174
  178
  182
  156
  161
  166
  172
  178
  184
  191
  198
  206
  214
  222
  231
  241
  251
  262
  273
  285
  297
  311
  324
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  107
  32
  38
  43
  49
  54
  59
  64
  70
  75
  81
  86
  92
  98
  104
  110
  117
  124
  131
  138
  146
  154
  163
  171
  181
  190
  200
  211
  222
  233
  245
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -75
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  24
  32
  38
  43
  49
  54
  59
  64
  70
  75
  81
  86
  92
  98
  104
  110
  117
  124
  131
  138
  146
  154
  163
  171
  181
  190
  200
  211
  222
  233
  245
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -61
  191
  198
  205
  212
  219
  227
  235
  244
  253
  262
  242
  253
  264
  276
  288
  301
  315
  329
  344
  360
  376
  394
  412
  431
  452
  473
  496
  519
  544
  570
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  86
  -15
  -17
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -27
  -29
  -32
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  82
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  258
  181
  185
  190
  195
  200
  206
  212
  219
  226
  203
  211
  220
  229
  238
  248
  258
  269
  281
  293
  306
  320
  334
  350
  366
  382
  400
  419
  438
  459
Discount rate, %
 
  6.90
  7.25
  7.61
  7.99
  8.39
  8.81
  9.25
  9.71
  10.19
  10.70
  11.24
  11.80
  12.39
  13.01
  13.66
  14.34
  15.06
  15.81
  16.61
  17.44
  18.31
  19.22
  20.18
  21.19
  22.25
  23.37
  24.53
  25.76
  27.05
  28.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  241
  157
  148
  139
  130
  121
  111
  101
  91
  82
  63
  55
  48
  41
  35
  29
  24
  19
  15
  12
  9
  7
  5
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

VeriFone Systems, Inc. provides payments and commerce solutions at the point of sale (POS) worldwide. It offers countertop solutions that accept payment options, such as contactless, NFC, mobile wallets, and EMV; PIN pads that support credit and debit card, EBT, EMV, and other PIN-based transactions; and multimedia consumer facing POS devices. The company also provides portable payment devices, including small, portable, and handheld devices that enable merchants to accept electronic payments wherever wireless connectivity is available; and mobile solutions that attach to and interface with iOS, Android, or Windows-based smartphones and tablets. In addition, it offers integrated electronic payment systems that combine electronic payment processing, fuel dispensing, and ECR functions, as well as secure payment systems for integration with petroleum pump controllers; unattended and self-service payment solutions designed to enable payment transactions in self-service, high-transaction volume, and public transportation environments; and network access solutions. Further, the company provides other managed, terminal management, payment-enabled media, in-taxi payment, and security solutions; and server-based payment processing software and middleware. Additionally, it offers installation, deployment, training, and application development and delivery solutions; project management, client education program, and consulting services; helpdesk support, equipment repair and maintenance, and software post-contract support services; and application libraries and development tools. The company sells its products directly; and through third party distributors and partners. It serves financial services, retail, petroleum, restaurant, hospitality, taxi, transportation, and healthcare industries. The company was formerly known as VeriFone Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to VeriFone Systems, Inc. in May 2010. VeriFone Systems, Inc. is headquartered in San Jose, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  VeriFone Systems (PAY)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -229.2
Price to Sales 1
Price to Book 2.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 23.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -0.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -0.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.1%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 105.7%
Total Debt to Equity 113.8%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -6.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.8%
Return On Total Capital -0.5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.7%
Return On Equity -1.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Asset Turnover 0.8
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 39.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 40%
EBITDA Margin 10.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.7%
Operating Margin 1.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Net Profit Margin -0.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Effective Tax Rate 600%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 200.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

PAY stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PAY stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1992 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by VeriFone Systems. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of VeriFone Systems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PAY stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.9%, whose default value for PAY is calculated based on our internal credit rating of VeriFone Systems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of VeriFone Systems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PAY stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PAY stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for VeriFone Systems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for VeriFone Systems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PAY stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PAY are equal to 25.5%.

Life of production assets of 9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in VeriFone Systems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PAY is equal to 6.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $814 million for VeriFone Systems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 108.916 million for VeriFone Systems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of VeriFone Systems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.0 billion.


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The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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