Intrinsic value of Potbelly - PBPB

Previous Close

$11.25

  Intrinsic Value

$5.36

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-52%

  Value-price divergence*

-43%

Previous close

$11.25

 
Intrinsic value

$5.36

 
Up/down potential

-52%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-43%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PBPB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.12
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
Revenue, $m
  407
  433
  459
  487
  516
  546
  578
  611
  645
  681
  718
  758
  799
  841
  886
  933
  982
  1,034
  1,088
  1,144
  1,203
  1,266
  1,331
  1,399
  1,470
  1,545
  1,624
  1,707
  1,793
  1,884
  1,980
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  395
  419
  444
  471
  498
  527
  557
  588
  621
  655
  691
  728
  767
  808
  851
  895
  942
  991
  1,043
  1,097
  1,154
  1,213
  1,275
  1,340
  1,409
  1,480
  1,556
  1,635
  1,718
  1,804
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
Total operating expenses, $m
  394
  420
  444
  470
  497
  525
  555
  586
  617
  651
  686
  722
  760
  800
  842
  886
  931
  979
  1,028
  1,081
  1,136
  1,194
  1,254
  1,317
  1,383
  1,453
  1,526
  1,603
  1,683
  1,767
  1,854
Operating income, $m
  13
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  25
  28
  30
  33
  36
  38
  41
  45
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  72
  76
  81
  87
  92
  98
  104
  111
  118
  125
EBITDA, $m
  36
  25
  27
  30
  32
  35
  38
  41
  44
  48
  51
  55
  59
  63
  67
  72
  77
  82
  87
  92
  98
  104
  111
  118
  125
  132
  140
  148
  157
  166
  176
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
Earnings before tax, $m
  13
  13
  15
  17
  19
  21
  22
  25
  27
  29
  31
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
  60
  64
  68
  73
  77
  82
  88
  93
  99
  105
  111
  118
Tax expense, $m
  5
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
Net income, $m
  8
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  175
  162
  172
  182
  193
  204
  216
  228
  241
  254
  268
  283
  298
  314
  331
  348
  367
  386
  406
  427
  449
  473
  497
  522
  549
  577
  606
  637
  670
  704
  739
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  152
  162
  172
  182
  193
  204
  216
  228
  241
  254
  268
  283
  298
  314
  331
  348
  367
  386
  406
  427
  449
  473
  497
  522
  549
  577
  606
  637
  670
  704
  739
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.678
  2.673
  2.669
  2.676
  2.674
  2.676
  2.676
  2.680
  2.676
  2.681
  2.679
  2.678
  2.681
  2.678
  2.677
  2.681
  2.676
  2.679
  2.680
  2.679
  2.679
  2.677
  2.678
  2.680
  2.678
  2.678
  2.680
  2.680
  2.676
  2.676
  2.679
Average production assets, $m
  105
  112
  119
  126
  133
  141
  149
  158
  166
  176
  185
  195
  206
  217
  229
  241
  253
  267
  281
  295
  310
  327
  343
  361
  379
  399
  419
  440
  463
  486
  511
Working capital, $m
  11
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -57
Total debt, $m
  0
  3
  7
  10
  14
  18
  22
  26
  30
  35
  40
  45
  50
  55
  61
  67
  73
  80
  87
  94
  102
  110
  118
  127
  136
  145
  155
  166
  177
  189
  201
Total liabilities, $m
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  125
  132
  139
  146
  154
  162
  170
  179
  188
  197
  207
  218
  229
  241
  253
Total equity, $m
  123
  106
  113
  120
  127
  134
  142
  150
  158
  167
  177
  186
  196
  207
  218
  229
  241
  254
  267
  281
  296
  311
  327
  344
  361
  380
  399
  419
  441
  463
  486
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  175
  161
  172
  182
  193
  204
  216
  228
  240
  254
  269
  283
  298
  314
  331
  348
  366
  386
  406
  427
  450
  473
  497
  523
  549
  577
  606
  637
  670
  704
  739
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.030
  0.060
  0.090
  0.110
  0.130
  0.150
  0.170
  0.190
  0.210
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.320
  0.330
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
  0.400
  0.410
  0.410
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  8
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  16
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  31
  33
  36
  38
  41
  44
  47
  50
  53
  56
  60
  64
  68
  72
  77
  81
  86
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  23
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
Funds from operations, $m
  52
  21
  23
  25
  27
  29
  32
  34
  36
  39
  42
  44
  47
  51
  54
  57
  61
  65
  69
  73
  78
  82
  87
  93
  98
  104
  110
  116
  123
  130
  137
Change in working capital, $m
  6
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  46
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  63
  66
  71
  75
  79
  84
  89
  95
  100
  106
  112
  119
  125
  133
  140
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
New CAPEX, $m
  -37
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -38
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -74
Free cash flow, $m
  8
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -17
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -9
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  66
  70
  74
  79
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  23
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  25
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  56
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  24
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  5
  5
  5
  4
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
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Potbelly Corporation, through its subsidiaries, owns and operates Potbelly Sandwich Works sandwich shops in the United States. It also sells and administers franchises of Potbelly Sandwich Works sandwich shops. As of December 25, 2016, the company operated 441 shops in 29 states and the District of Columbia, including 411 company operated shops and 30 franchisees operated shops; and 13 international franchised shops, including 11 shops in the Middle East, 1 shop in the United Kingdom, and 1 shop in Canada. The company was formerly known as Potbelly Sandwich Works, Inc. and changed its name to Potbelly Corporation in 2002. Potbelly Corporation was founded in 1977 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Potbelly (PBPB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 35.4
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 2.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 31.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 2.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 5.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.3%
Return On Total Capital 6.3%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Return On Equity 6.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Asset Turnover 2.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 72.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 71.9%
EBITDA Margin 8.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.4%
Operating Margin 3.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.6%
Net Profit Margin 2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.6%
Effective Tax Rate 38.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.2%
Payout Ratio 0%

PBPB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PBPB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $407 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Potbelly. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Potbelly. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PBPB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PBPB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Potbelly, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Potbelly.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PBPB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $24 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PBPB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Potbelly.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Potbelly. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PBPB stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PBPB are equal to 25.8%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Potbelly operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PBPB is equal to -2.9%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $123 million for Potbelly - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 24.326 million for Potbelly is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Potbelly at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.3 billion.

RELATED COMPANIES Price Int.Val. Rating
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CMG Chipotle Mexic 322.78 722.11  str.buy
TACO Del Taco Resta 12.87 13.85  hold
FRSH Papa Murphy 4.50 7.15  str.buy
LOCO El Pollo Loco 11.95 20.26  buy

COMPANY NEWS

▶ Sandwich chain, with 5 KC locations, explores sale amid sales decline   [Aug-08-17 09:10AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ [$$] Sandwich Maker Potbelly Hangs For Sale Sign   [Aug-04-17 11:47PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Potbelly reports 2Q loss   [10:14PM  Associated Press]
▶ Potbelly explores sale amid decline in sales   [06:00PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ [$$] Potbelly Hangs 'For Sale' Sign   [11:26AM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ LD Micro Index Reconstitution as of August 1, 2017   [Aug-01-17 09:40AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ 3 Top Small-Cap Stocks to Buy in July   [Jul-25-17 06:15PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Potbelly's Chances of a Sale Increase as Activist Hovers   [Jul-17-17 12:06PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Potbelly Corp. : July 13, 2017   [Jul-13-17 04:24PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Instant Analysis: Potbelly CEO Stepping Down   [Jun-04-17 09:36AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Potbelly sandwich chain turns 40 and sets out to lift spirits   [Jun-01-17 04:18PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [May-31-17 11:58AM  Briefing.com]
▶ Potbelly CEO leaving sandwich chain after nine years at helm   [10:10AM  American City Business Journals]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Potbelly Corp. : May 29, 2017   [May-29-17 12:51PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Potbelly Corp. : May 18, 2017   [May-18-17 01:56PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Chicago sandwich chain Potbelly expanding to California   [May-11-17 05:22PM  American City Business Journals]
▶ Why Potbelly Corp. Stock Dropped Today   [May-03-17 03:52PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Story Stocks from Briefing.com   [11:37AM  Briefing.com]
▶ Potbelly beats 1Q profit forecasts   [May-02-17 04:38PM  Associated Press]
▶ 3 Stocks to Avoid in Fast-Casual Restaurants   [11:00AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Why Potbelly Corporation Shares Gained 10% Last Year   [Jan-19-17 01:00PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Is Potbelly Corp (PBPB) A Good Stock To Buy?   [Dec-06-16 12:02AM  at Insider Monkey]
Stock chart of PBPB Financial statements of PBPB
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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