Intrinsic value of Pacira Pharmaceuticals - PCRX

Previous Close

$35.80

  Intrinsic Value

$8.87

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-75%

  Value-price divergence*

-66%

Previous close

$35.80

 
Intrinsic value

$8.87

 
Up/down potential

-75%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-66%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PCRX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  10.84
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.87
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.52
  5.46
  5.42
  5.38
  5.34
  5.31
  5.27
  5.25
  5.22
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
Revenue, $m
  276
  293
  311
  330
  349
  369
  390
  412
  435
  459
  484
  510
  538
  567
  597
  628
  661
  696
  732
  770
  809
  851
  895
  940
  989
  1,039
  1,092
  1,147
  1,205
  1,266
  1,330
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  282
  299
  317
  335
  354
  374
  395
  417
  439
  463
  483
  509
  537
  565
  595
  626
  659
  693
  729
  766
  806
  847
  891
  936
  984
  1,034
  1,086
  1,141
  1,199
  1,260
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  308
  282
  299
  317
  335
  354
  374
  395
  417
  439
  463
  483
  509
  537
  565
  595
  626
  659
  693
  729
  766
  806
  847
  891
  936
  984
  1,034
  1,086
  1,141
  1,199
  1,260
Operating income, $m
  -32
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  71
EBITDA, $m
  -19
  25
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  110
  115
Interest expense (income), $m
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
Earnings before tax, $m
  -38
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
Tax expense, $m
  0
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
Net income, $m
  -38
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  173
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  391
  232
  246
  260
  276
  292
  308
  326
  344
  363
  382
  403
  425
  448
  471
  496
  522
  549
  578
  608
  639
  672
  707
  743
  781
  821
  862
  906
  952
  1,000
  1,051
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  218
  232
  246
  260
  276
  292
  308
  326
  344
  363
  382
  403
  425
  448
  471
  496
  522
  549
  578
  608
  639
  672
  707
  743
  781
  821
  862
  906
  952
  1,000
  1,051
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.266
  1.263
  1.264
  1.269
  1.264
  1.264
  1.266
  1.264
  1.265
  1.264
  1.267
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.268
  1.266
  1.266
  1.268
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.265
  1.266
  1.266
  1.267
  1.266
  1.266
  1.266
  1.265
Average production assets, $m
  96
  101
  108
  114
  121
  128
  135
  143
  151
  159
  168
  177
  186
  196
  206
  217
  229
  241
  253
  266
  280
  294
  310
  325
  342
  359
  378
  397
  417
  438
  460
Working capital, $m
  198
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  110
  115
  121
Total debt, $m
  109
  120
  131
  142
  154
  167
  180
  194
  208
  223
  239
  255
  272
  290
  309
  328
  349
  370
  393
  417
  441
  467
  495
  523
  553
  584
  617
  652
  688
  726
  766
Total liabilities, $m
  172
  183
  194
  205
  217
  230
  243
  257
  271
  286
  302
  318
  335
  353
  372
  391
  412
  433
  456
  480
  504
  530
  558
  586
  616
  647
  680
  715
  751
  789
  829
Total equity, $m
  219
  49
  52
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  105
  110
  116
  122
  128
  135
  142
  149
  157
  165
  173
  182
  191
  201
  211
  222
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  391
  232
  246
  260
  275
  292
  308
  326
  344
  363
  383
  403
  425
  447
  471
  496
  522
  549
  578
  608
  639
  672
  707
  743
  781
  820
  862
  906
  952
  1,000
  1,051
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.498
  2.450
  2.520
  2.590
  2.660
  2.720
  2.770
  2.820
  2.870
  2.920
  2.960
  3.000
  3.040
  3.070
  3.110
  3.140
  3.170
  3.200
  3.220
  3.250
  3.270
  3.300
  3.320
  3.340
  3.360
  3.380
  3.390
  3.410
  3.430
  3.440
  3.460
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211
  0.211

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -38
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  13
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  40
  43
  45
Funds from operations, $m
  55
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
Change in working capital, $m
  22
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
Cash from operations, $m
  33
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  28
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -43
New CAPEX, $m
  -25
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -62
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -65
Free cash flow, $m
  -29
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  7
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -21
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  173
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  184
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  15
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  176
  10
  10
  10
  10
  9
  9
  9
  8
  8
  7
  6
  6
  6
  5
  5
  4
  4
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Pacira Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a specialty pharmaceutical company, develops, commercializes, and manufactures proprietary pharmaceutical products primarily for use in hospitals and ambulatory surgery centers in the United States. The company develops pharmaceutical products based on its proprietary DepoFoam drug delivery technology. Its lead product includes, EXPAREL, a liposome injection of bupivacaine, an amide-type anesthetic indicated for infiltration into the surgical site to produce postsurgical analgesia. The company also markets DepoCyt(e), a liposomal formulation of the chemotherapeutic agent cytarabine indicated for the intrathecal treatment of lymphomatous meningitis, a life-threatening complication of lymphoma, a cancer of the immune system. Its development pipeline comprises DepoMeloxicam, a long-acting non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug, which is in preclinical development for the treatment of acute postsurgical pain; and DepoTranexamic Acid, a pre-clinical development product for the treatment or prevention of excessive blood loss during surgery by promoting hemostasis. The company was formerly known as Pacira, Inc. and changed its name to Pacira Pharmaceuticals, Inc. in October 2010. Pacira Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Parsippany, New Jersey.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Pacira Pharmaceuticals (PCRX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -35.3
Price to Sales 4.9
Price to Book 6.1
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 40.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 167.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 10.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -37.5%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 15.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 49.8%
Total Debt to Equity 49.8%
Interest Coverage -9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -8.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.6%
Return On Total Capital -11.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.9%
Return On Equity -17.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -9.9%
Asset Turnover 0.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 60.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 63.9%
EBITDA Margin -7.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -0.1%
Operating Margin -11.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.5%
Pre-Tax Margin -13.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.7%
Net Profit Margin -13.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -6.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

PCRX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PCRX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $276 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Pacira Pharmaceuticals. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Pacira Pharmaceuticals. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PCRX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PCRX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Pacira Pharmaceuticals, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Pacira Pharmaceuticals.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PCRX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 96.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PCRX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.8% for Pacira Pharmaceuticals.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Pacira Pharmaceuticals. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PCRX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PCRX are equal to 34.6%.

Life of production assets of 10.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Pacira Pharmaceuticals operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PCRX is equal to 9.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $219 million for Pacira Pharmaceuticals - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 35.923 million for Pacira Pharmaceuticals is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Pacira Pharmaceuticals at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ [$$] Maverick Therapeutics Taps Former Pacira Executive as CEO   [Aug-10-17 06:31PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Pacira reports 2Q loss   [Aug-02-17 10:51PM  Associated Press]
▶ Paul Tudor Jones' Top 4 Health Care Buys   [May-18-17 04:05PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Pacira reports 1Q loss   [May-04-17 08:41AM  Associated Press]
▶ Can Pacira Pharmaceuticals' Exparel Reduce Opioid Abuse?   [Apr-19-17 08:24AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Can Drugmakers Cure the Opioid Crisis?   [Apr-18-17 07:24AM  Motley Fool]
▶ MonoSol Rx Appoints James S. Scibetta to Board of Directors   [Apr-11-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Anesthesia Can't Save This Biotech From Feeling Pain: Analyst   [Mar-23-17 04:22PM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Is Pacira Pharmaceuticals' Balance Sheet Safe?   [Mar-09-17 07:00AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Pacira Pharmaceuticals Shares Are Soaring 13.6% Higher   [Mar-01-17 04:34PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of PCRX Financial statements of PCRX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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