Intrinsic value of Park City Group - PCYG

Previous Close

$12.50

  Intrinsic Value

$0.13

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-99%

  Value-price divergence*

-94%

Previous close

$12.50

 
Intrinsic value

$0.13

 
Up/down potential

-99%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-94%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PCYG stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.00
  25.00
  23.00
  21.20
  19.58
  18.12
  16.81
  15.63
  14.57
  13.61
  12.75
  11.97
  11.28
  10.65
  10.08
  9.58
  9.12
  8.71
  8.34
  8.00
  7.70
  7.43
  7.19
  6.97
  6.77
  6.60
  6.44
  6.29
  6.16
  6.05
  5.94
Revenue, $m
  14
  18
  22
  26
  31
  37
  43
  50
  57
  65
  73
  82
  91
  101
  111
  121
  133
  144
  156
  169
  182
  195
  209
  224
  239
  255
  271
  288
  306
  324
  343
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  22
  27
  32
  38
  44
  51
  59
  67
  76
  85
  93
  103
  114
  126
  138
  151
  164
  177
  192
  206
  222
  238
  254
  271
  289
  308
  327
  347
  368
  390
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  13
  22
  27
  32
  38
  44
  51
  59
  67
  76
  85
  93
  103
  114
  126
  138
  151
  164
  177
  192
  206
  222
  238
  254
  271
  289
  308
  327
  347
  368
  390
Operating income, $m
  1
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
EBITDA, $m
  2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
Earnings before tax, $m
  1
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  1
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  11
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  39
  35
  43
  52
  62
  74
  86
  100
  114
  130
  146
  164
  182
  201
  222
  243
  265
  288
  312
  337
  363
  390
  418
  447
  478
  509
  542
  576
  611
  648
  687
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  28
  35
  43
  52
  62
  74
  86
  100
  114
  130
  146
  164
  182
  201
  222
  243
  265
  288
  312
  337
  363
  390
  418
  447
  478
  509
  542
  576
  611
  648
  687
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.500
  0.514
  0.512
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.500
  0.502
  0.500
  0.498
  0.502
  0.500
  0.500
  0.501
  0.501
  0.500
  0.500
  0.501
  0.500
  0.501
  0.500
  0.500
  0.501
  0.500
  0.499
Average production assets, $m
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  19
  21
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
Working capital, $m
  7
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
Total debt, $m
  3
  1
  3
  4
  6
  8
  10
  13
  15
  18
  21
  24
  28
  31
  35
  38
  42
  47
  51
  55
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  92
  98
  104
  111
  118
Total liabilities, $m
  8
  6
  8
  9
  11
  13
  15
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  33
  36
  40
  43
  47
  52
  56
  60
  65
  70
  75
  80
  85
  91
  97
  103
  109
  116
  123
Total equity, $m
  31
  29
  35
  43
  51
  61
  71
  82
  94
  106
  120
  134
  149
  165
  182
  199
  218
  237
  256
  277
  298
  320
  343
  367
  392
  418
  445
  473
  502
  532
  564
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  39
  35
  43
  52
  62
  74
  86
  100
  114
  129
  146
  163
  182
  201
  222
  242
  265
  289
  312
  337
  363
  390
  418
  447
  477
  509
  542
  576
  611
  648
  687
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.097
  0.040
  0.080
  0.100
  0.120
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.180
  0.180
  0.190
  0.190
  0.190
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.200
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
  0.210
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.821
  0.821
  0.821
  0.821
  0.821
  0.821
  0.821
  0.821
  0.821
  0.821
  0.821
  0.821
  0.821
  0.821
  0.821
  0.821
  0.821
  0.821
  0.821
  0.821
  0.821
  0.821
  0.821
  0.821
  0.821
  0.821
  0.821
  0.821
  0.821
  0.821
  0.821

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  1
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Funds from operations, $m
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
Change in working capital, $m
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  1
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -47
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
New CAPEX, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
Cash from investing activities, $m
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
Free cash flow, $m
  1
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  10
  12
  13
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  26
  28
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  67
  70
  74
  78
  82
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  0
  11
  13
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  25
  27
  29
  29
  31
  34
  37
  39
  42
  44
  47
  49
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  73
  76
  80
  85
  89
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -3
  -10
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  7
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  6
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  94.5
  89.7
  85.5
  81.8
  78.5
  75.5
  72.7
  70.2
  67.9
  65.8
  64.0
  62.2
  60.6
  59.1
  57.6
  56.2
  54.9
  53.6
  52.4
  51.3
  50.1
  49.1
  48.0
  47.0
  46.0
  45.1
  44.2
  43.3
  42.4
  41.6

Park City Group, Inc., a software-as-a-service provider, designs, develops, markets, and supports proprietary software products for the consumer goods supply chain. It offers its products for businesses having multiple locations to assist in the management of business operations on a daily basis and communicate results of operations in a timely manner. The company provides advanced commerce and supply-chain solutions, such as Scan Based Trading, ScoreTracker, Vendor Managed Inventory, Store Level Replenishment, Enterprise Supply Chain Planning, Fresh Market Manager, and ActionManager, which are designed to enable the retailer and supplier to manage inventory, product mix, and labor. It also offers ReposiTrak, a cloud based solution that helps food, pharmaceutical, and dietary supplement retailers and suppliers to protect their brands and remain in compliance with business records and regulatory requirements. In addition, it provides business-consulting services to suppliers and retailers in the grocery, convenience store, and specialty retail industries. Further, the company offers professional consulting services, including implementation, customization, assessments, profit optimization, training, and support functions for its application and related products. It primarily serves multi-store retail and convenience store chains, branded food manufacturers, suppliers and distributors, and manufacturing companies in North America, Europe, Asia, and the Pacific Rim. Park City Group, Inc. was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Park City Group (PCYG)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 240.4
Price to Sales 17.2
Price to Book 7.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 240.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 240.4
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate NaN%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 4
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 9.7%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 2.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.2%
Return On Total Capital 3.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.4%
Return On Equity 3.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.1%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 71.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 62.3%
EBITDA Margin 14.3%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -5.2%
Operating Margin 7.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -15.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.1%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.7%
Net Profit Margin 7.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -12.7%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 0%

PCYG stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PCYG stock intrinsic value calculation we used $14 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Park City Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Park City Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PCYG stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 25% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PCYG is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Park City Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Park City Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PCYG stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 128.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PCYG stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Park City Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Park City Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PCYG stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PCYG are equal to 14.3%.

Life of production assets of 22.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Park City Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PCYG is equal to -7.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $31 million for Park City Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 18.919 million for Park City Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Park City Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Park City Group posts 3Q profit   [May-10-17 04:28PM  Associated Press]
▶ Park City Group Reports Fiscal 3Q17 Results   [04:01PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Park City Group to Present at Upcoming Investor Conferences   [May-09-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ReposiTrak® Sales Team Grows to Meet Increased Demand   [Mar-29-17 06:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Park City Group posts 2Q profit   [Feb-06-17 04:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ ReposiTrak® Expands Sales Team to Meet Increased Demand   [Feb-01-17 08:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Is Zagg Inc (ZAGG) Going to Burn These Hedge Funds?   [Dec-14-16 06:10AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Secrets of Food Supply Chains: What Consumers Should Know   [Oct-14-16 12:41PM  at MarketWatch]
Financial statements of PCYG
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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