Intrinsic value of PDC Energy - PDCE

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$57.15

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$57.15

 
Intrinsic value

$16.38

 
Up/down potential

-71%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PDCE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -35.63
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  383
  391
  400
  410
  421
  434
  448
  464
  480
  498
  517
  537
  559
  582
  607
  633
  661
  690
  721
  754
  789
  826
  864
  905
  948
  993
  1,040
  1,090
  1,143
  1,198
  1,256
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  432
  442
  453
  466
  480
  495
  512
  530
  549
  570
  586
  610
  635
  662
  691
  721
  753
  787
  823
  861
  900
  943
  987
  1,034
  1,083
  1,135
  1,189
  1,247
  1,307
  1,370
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  715
  432
  442
  453
  466
  480
  495
  512
  530
  549
  570
  586
  610
  635
  662
  691
  721
  753
  787
  823
  861
  900
  943
  987
  1,034
  1,083
  1,135
  1,189
  1,247
  1,307
  1,370
Operating income, $m
  -332
  -42
  -42
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -51
  -53
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
EBITDA, $m
  85
  386
  395
  405
  416
  429
  443
  458
  474
  491
  510
  531
  552
  575
  599
  625
  653
  682
  712
  745
  779
  815
  853
  893
  935
  980
  1,027
  1,076
  1,128
  1,183
  1,240
Interest expense (income), $m
  43
  53
  56
  58
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
  78
  82
  87
  92
  97
  103
  109
  116
  123
  130
  138
  146
  155
  164
  173
  183
  194
  205
  217
  230
  243
  256
Earnings before tax, $m
  -393
  -95
  -98
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -167
  -176
  -185
  -196
  -206
  -218
  -230
  -242
  -255
  -269
  -284
  -300
  -316
  -333
  -351
  -370
Tax expense, $m
  -147
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -246
  -95
  -98
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -167
  -176
  -185
  -196
  -206
  -218
  -230
  -242
  -255
  -269
  -284
  -300
  -316
  -333
  -351
  -370

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  244
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,486
  4,341
  4,441
  4,555
  4,683
  4,825
  4,980
  5,150
  5,334
  5,532
  5,744
  5,971
  6,213
  6,471
  6,745
  7,036
  7,345
  7,671
  8,016
  8,381
  8,766
  9,173
  9,601
  10,053
  10,529
  11,030
  11,558
  12,113
  12,698
  13,313
  13,959
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,242
  4,341
  4,441
  4,555
  4,683
  4,825
  4,980
  5,150
  5,334
  5,532
  5,744
  5,971
  6,213
  6,471
  6,745
  7,036
  7,345
  7,671
  8,016
  8,381
  8,766
  9,173
  9,601
  10,053
  10,529
  11,030
  11,558
  12,113
  12,698
  13,313
  13,959
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
  0.090
Average production assets, $m
  2,973
  3,032
  3,102
  3,182
  3,271
  3,370
  3,479
  3,598
  3,726
  3,864
  4,013
  4,171
  4,340
  4,521
  4,712
  4,916
  5,131
  5,359
  5,600
  5,855
  6,124
  6,408
  6,707
  7,023
  7,355
  7,705
  8,074
  8,462
  8,870
  9,300
  9,752
Working capital, $m
  129
  -116
  -119
  -122
  -126
  -129
  -134
  -138
  -143
  -148
  -154
  -160
  -167
  -174
  -181
  -189
  -197
  -206
  -215
  -225
  -235
  -246
  -258
  -270
  -282
  -296
  -310
  -325
  -341
  -357
  -374
Total debt, $m
  1,046
  1,089
  1,132
  1,182
  1,239
  1,301
  1,369
  1,444
  1,524
  1,611
  1,705
  1,804
  1,911
  2,024
  2,144
  2,272
  2,407
  2,551
  2,702
  2,862
  3,031
  3,210
  3,398
  3,596
  3,805
  4,025
  4,257
  4,501
  4,757
  5,027
  5,311
Total liabilities, $m
  1,863
  1,906
  1,949
  1,999
  2,056
  2,118
  2,186
  2,261
  2,341
  2,428
  2,522
  2,621
  2,728
  2,841
  2,961
  3,089
  3,224
  3,368
  3,519
  3,679
  3,848
  4,027
  4,215
  4,413
  4,622
  4,842
  5,074
  5,318
  5,574
  5,844
  6,128
Total equity, $m
  2,623
  2,435
  2,491
  2,555
  2,627
  2,707
  2,794
  2,889
  2,992
  3,103
  3,222
  3,350
  3,486
  3,630
  3,784
  3,947
  4,120
  4,304
  4,497
  4,702
  4,918
  5,146
  5,386
  5,640
  5,907
  6,188
  6,484
  6,795
  7,123
  7,468
  7,831
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,486
  4,341
  4,440
  4,554
  4,683
  4,825
  4,980
  5,150
  5,333
  5,531
  5,744
  5,971
  6,214
  6,471
  6,745
  7,036
  7,344
  7,672
  8,016
  8,381
  8,766
  9,173
  9,601
  10,053
  10,529
  11,030
  11,558
  12,113
  12,697
  13,312
  13,959
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.399
  0.450
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.580
  0.580
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
  0.630
  0.640
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.660
  0.670
  0.670
  0.680
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561
  0.561

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -246
  -95
  -98
  -101
  -105
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -167
  -176
  -185
  -196
  -206
  -218
  -230
  -242
  -255
  -269
  -284
  -300
  -316
  -333
  -351
  -370
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  417
  427
  437
  448
  461
  474
  489
  506
  524
  543
  563
  579
  603
  628
  654
  683
  713
  744
  778
  813
  851
  890
  932
  975
  1,022
  1,070
  1,121
  1,175
  1,232
  1,292
  1,354
Funds from operations, $m
  505
  332
  339
  347
  356
  366
  376
  388
  400
  414
  428
  444
  460
  478
  496
  516
  537
  559
  582
  607
  633
  660
  689
  720
  752
  786
  822
  859
  899
  940
  984
Change in working capital, $m
  19
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
Cash from operations, $m
  486
  1,370
  342
  350
  359
  369
  380
  392
  405
  419
  434
  450
  467
  484
  503
  524
  545
  568
  591
  617
  643
  671
  701
  732
  765
  799
  836
  874
  914
  957
  1,001
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -413
  -421
  -431
  -442
  -454
  -468
  -483
  -500
  -518
  -537
  -557
  -579
  -603
  -628
  -654
  -683
  -713
  -744
  -778
  -813
  -851
  -890
  -932
  -975
  -1,022
  -1,070
  -1,121
  -1,175
  -1,232
  -1,292
New CAPEX, $m
  -1,514
  -59
  -70
  -80
  -90
  -99
  -109
  -118
  -128
  -138
  -148
  -159
  -169
  -180
  -192
  -203
  -215
  -228
  -241
  -255
  -269
  -284
  -299
  -316
  -332
  -350
  -369
  -388
  -408
  -430
  -452
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -1,509
  -472
  -491
  -511
  -532
  -553
  -577
  -601
  -628
  -656
  -685
  -716
  -748
  -783
  -820
  -857
  -898
  -941
  -985
  -1,033
  -1,082
  -1,135
  -1,189
  -1,248
  -1,307
  -1,372
  -1,439
  -1,509
  -1,583
  -1,662
  -1,744
Free cash flow, $m
  -1,023
  897
  -149
  -161
  -172
  -184
  -197
  -209
  -223
  -237
  -251
  -266
  -282
  -299
  -316
  -334
  -353
  -373
  -394
  -416
  -439
  -463
  -488
  -515
  -543
  -572
  -603
  -635
  -669
  -705
  -742
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  434
  44
  44
  50
  56
  62
  68
  74
  81
  87
  93
  100
  106
  113
  120
  128
  135
  143
  152
  160
  169
  178
  188
  198
  209
  220
  232
  244
  257
  270
  284
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  848
  0
  161
  174
  188
  202
  216
  230
  245
  261
  277
  294
  312
  330
  349
  370
  391
  413
  436
  460
  486
  513
  541
  570
  601
  633
  667
  703
  741
  780
  821
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  1,266
  44
  205
  224
  244
  264
  284
  304
  326
  348
  370
  394
  418
  443
  469
  498
  526
  556
  588
  620
  655
  691
  729
  768
  810
  853
  899
  947
  998
  1,050
  1,105
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  243
  941
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -150
  -158
  -167
  -176
  -185
  -196
  -206
  -218
  -230
  -242
  -256
  -270
  -285
  -300
  -317
  -334
  -352
  -371
  -391
  -413
  -435
  -458
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -1,336
  -55
  -56
  -64
  -72
  -80
  -87
  -95
  -103
  -111
  -119
  -127
  -136
  -145
  -154
  -163
  -173
  -183
  -194
  -205
  -216
  -228
  -240
  -253
  -267
  -281
  -296
  -312
  -328
  -345
  -363
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  243
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  1,129
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  1,082
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  95.6
  91.2
  86.7
  82.3
  78.0
  73.8
  69.7
  65.7
  61.9
  58.2
  54.7
  51.3
  48.1
  45.0
  42.1
  39.4
  36.8
  34.4
  32.1
  29.9
  27.9
  25.9
  24.2
  22.5
  20.9
  19.5
  18.1
  16.8
  15.6

PDC Energy, Inc., an independent exploration and production company, acquires, explores for, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States. It operates through two segments, Oil and Gas Exploration and Production, and Gas Marketing. The Oil and Gas Exploration and Production segment produces and sells natural gas and natural gas liquids to midstream service providers, marketers, and utilities; and crude oil. The Gas Marketing segment purchases, aggregates, and sells natural gas; and purchases natural gas produced by third party producers for resale. This segment markets natural gas to third-party marketers and natural gas utilities, as well as to industrial and commercial customers. December 31, 2015, it had approximately 273 million barrels of crude oil equivalent of proved reserves; and owned an interest in approximately 3000 gross wells. The company was formerly known as Petroleum Development Corporation and changed its name to PDC Energy, Inc. in June 2012. PDC Energy, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  PDC Energy (PDCE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -15.3
Price to Sales 9.8
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 7.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -3.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -35.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 150.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 30.8%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 244
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 39.8%
Total Debt to Equity 39.9%
Interest Coverage -8
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -6.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.1%
Return On Total Capital -8.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.1%
Return On Equity -12.6%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.2%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 89.3%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 88.7%
EBITDA Margin 17.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36%
Operating Margin -86.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -23.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -102.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -33.3%
Net Profit Margin -64.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -19.2%
Effective Tax Rate 37.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

PDCE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PDCE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $383 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by PDC Energy. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of PDC Energy. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PDCE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PDCE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of PDC Energy, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of PDC Energy.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PDCE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 110.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PDCE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.1% for PDC Energy.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for PDC Energy. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PDCE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PDCE are equal to 776.2%.

Life of production assets of 7.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in PDC Energy operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PDCE is equal to -29.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2623 million for PDC Energy - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 66.079 million for PDC Energy is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of PDC Energy at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.8 billion.


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Stock chart of PDCE Financial statements of PDCE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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