Intrinsic value of PDL BioPharma - PDLI

Previous Close

$2.79

  Intrinsic Value

$13.75

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+393%

  Value-price divergence*

0%

Previous close

$2.79

 
Intrinsic value

$13.75

 
Up/down potential

+393%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence*

0%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PDLI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.5

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -58.64
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  244
  249
  255
  261
  268
  277
  286
  295
  306
  317
  329
  342
  356
  371
  387
  403
  421
  440
  460
  481
  503
  526
  550
  576
  604
  632
  663
  695
  728
  763
  800
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  41
  44
  46
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  117
  14
  15
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  40
  41
  44
  46
Operating income, $m
  127
  235
  240
  246
  253
  261
  269
  278
  288
  299
  311
  323
  336
  350
  365
  380
  397
  415
  433
  453
  474
  496
  519
  544
  569
  596
  625
  655
  687
  720
  755
EBITDA, $m
  139
  252
  258
  265
  272
  280
  289
  299
  310
  321
  334
  347
  361
  376
  392
  409
  427
  446
  466
  487
  509
  533
  558
  584
  612
  641
  672
  704
  738
  774
  811
Interest expense (income), $m
  11
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  44
  46
  49
  52
  55
Earnings before tax, $m
  109
  224
  229
  235
  241
  248
  256
  264
  274
  283
  294
  305
  317
  330
  343
  358
  373
  389
  406
  424
  443
  463
  485
  507
  530
  555
  581
  609
  638
  668
  700
Tax expense, $m
  45
  61
  62
  63
  65
  67
  69
  71
  74
  77
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  189
Net income, $m
  64
  164
  167
  171
  176
  181
  187
  193
  200
  207
  215
  223
  231
  241
  251
  261
  272
  284
  297
  310
  324
  338
  354
  370
  387
  405
  424
  444
  465
  488
  511

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  242
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,215
  992
  1,014
  1,040
  1,070
  1,102
  1,138
  1,176
  1,218
  1,264
  1,312
  1,364
  1,419
  1,478
  1,541
  1,607
  1,678
  1,752
  1,831
  1,915
  2,002
  2,095
  2,193
  2,296
  2,405
  2,520
  2,640
  2,767
  2,901
  3,041
  3,189
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  973
  992
  1,014
  1,040
  1,070
  1,102
  1,138
  1,176
  1,218
  1,264
  1,312
  1,364
  1,419
  1,478
  1,541
  1,607
  1,678
  1,752
  1,831
  1,915
  2,002
  2,095
  2,193
  2,296
  2,405
  2,520
  2,640
  2,767
  2,901
  3,041
  3,189
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.250
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
Average production assets, $m
  515
  525
  537
  551
  567
  584
  603
  623
  646
  670
  695
  723
  752
  783
  816
  852
  889
  929
  970
  1,014
  1,061
  1,110
  1,162
  1,217
  1,274
  1,335
  1,399
  1,466
  1,537
  1,611
  1,690
Working capital, $m
  268
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  86
Total debt, $m
  232
  241
  252
  264
  278
  294
  311
  329
  349
  371
  394
  419
  445
  473
  503
  535
  568
  604
  641
  681
  723
  767
  814
  863
  915
  970
  1,027
  1,088
  1,152
  1,219
  1,289
Total liabilities, $m
  464
  473
  484
  496
  510
  526
  543
  561
  581
  603
  626
  651
  677
  705
  735
  767
  800
  836
  873
  913
  955
  999
  1,046
  1,095
  1,147
  1,202
  1,259
  1,320
  1,384
  1,451
  1,521
Total equity, $m
  751
  519
  531
  544
  559
  576
  595
  615
  637
  661
  686
  713
  742
  773
  806
  841
  877
  916
  958
  1,001
  1,047
  1,096
  1,147
  1,201
  1,258
  1,318
  1,381
  1,447
  1,517
  1,590
  1,668
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,215
  992
  1,015
  1,040
  1,069
  1,102
  1,138
  1,176
  1,218
  1,264
  1,312
  1,364
  1,419
  1,478
  1,541
  1,608
  1,677
  1,752
  1,831
  1,914
  2,002
  2,095
  2,193
  2,296
  2,405
  2,520
  2,640
  2,767
  2,901
  3,041
  3,189
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.309
  0.460
  0.470
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.640
  0.650
  0.660
  0.670
  0.680
  0.690
  0.700
  0.710
  0.720
  0.730
  0.740
  0.740
  0.750
  0.760
  0.770
  0.770
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  64
  164
  167
  171
  176
  181
  187
  193
  200
  207
  215
  223
  231
  241
  251
  261
  272
  284
  297
  310
  324
  338
  354
  370
  387
  405
  424
  444
  465
  488
  511
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  12
  18
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  39
  41
  42
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
Funds from operations, $m
  88
  181
  185
  190
  195
  201
  207
  214
  221
  229
  238
  247
  257
  267
  278
  290
  302
  315
  329
  344
  359
  375
  392
  411
  430
  450
  471
  493
  517
  541
  567
Change in working capital, $m
  -14
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
Cash from operations, $m
  102
  181
  185
  189
  194
  200
  206
  213
  220
  228
  236
  245
  255
  265
  276
  288
  300
  313
  327
  341
  357
  373
  390
  408
  427
  447
  468
  490
  513
  538
  563
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
New CAPEX, $m
  -60
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -78
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -145
  -27
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -81
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -103
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -132
Free cash flow, $m
  -43
  153
  155
  157
  160
  164
  168
  172
  177
  183
  188
  195
  202
  209
  217
  225
  234
  244
  254
  265
  276
  288
  301
  314
  329
  344
  359
  376
  393
  412
  431
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  5
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -12
  9
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -55
  162
  166
  170
  174
  179
  185
  191
  197
  204
  212
  220
  228
  237
  247
  257
  268
  279
  292
  305
  318
  333
  348
  364
  380
  398
  417
  436
  457
  479
  502
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -55
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -77
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  242
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  395
  154
  156
  159
  162
  166
  170
  175
  180
  186
  192
  199
  206
  214
  222
  231
  240
  250
  261
  272
  284
  296
  310
  324
  338
  354
  370
  387
  405
  425
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  378
  141
  136
  131
  126
  121
  115
  109
  104
  98
  91
  85
  78
  72
  65
  59
  52
  46
  40
  35
  29
  25
  20
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

PDL BioPharma, Inc. manages a portfolio of patents and royalty assets in the United States and Europe. The company is involved in the humanization of monoclonal antibodies and the discovery of a new generation of targeted treatments for cancer and immunologic diseases. It offers Queen et al. patents that cover humanized antibodies, methods for humanizing antibodies, polynucleotide encoding in humanized antibodies, and methods of producing humanized antibodies. PDL BioPharma, Inc. has license agreements with various biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies, as well as acquires royalty and other assets. The company was formerly known as Protein Design Labs, Inc. and changed its name to PDL BioPharma, Inc. in 2006. PDL BioPharma, Inc. was founded in 1986 and is headquartered in Incline Village, Nevada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  PDL BioPharma (PDLI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 7.2
Price to Sales 1.9
Price to Book 0.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 11
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -58.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -47.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -24.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 30.9%
Total Debt to Equity 30.9%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.5%
Return On Total Capital 6.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.2%
Return On Equity 8.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.6%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 98.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.8%
EBITDA Margin 54.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 78.7%
Operating Margin 52%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 79.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 44.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 73.6%
Net Profit Margin 26.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46%
Effective Tax Rate 41.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.1%
Payout Ratio 26.6%

PDLI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PDLI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $244 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by PDL BioPharma. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of PDL BioPharma. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PDLI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PDLI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of PDL BioPharma, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of PDL BioPharma.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PDLI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 5.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PDLI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.5% for PDL BioPharma.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for PDL BioPharma. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PDLI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PDLI are equal to 211.1%.

Life of production assets of 42.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in PDL BioPharma operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PDLI is equal to 10.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $751 million for PDL BioPharma - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 161.759 million for PDL BioPharma is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of PDL BioPharma at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Here's Why PDL BioPharma Inc. Is Soaring Today   [Aug-04-17 12:51PM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to PDL BioPharma, Inc. : July 24, 2017   [Jul-24-17 06:00PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to PDL BioPharma, Inc. : July 13, 2017   [Jul-13-17 04:26PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to PDL BioPharma, Inc. : July 3, 2017   [Jul-03-17 03:40PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to PDL BioPharma, Inc. : June 20, 2017   [Jun-20-17 03:11PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Noden Pharma Notified of ANDA Filing for Tekturna®   [Jun-05-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ PDL BioPharma posts 1Q profit   [May-03-17 05:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ Better Buy: PDL BioPharma, Inc. vs. Johnson & Johnson   [Feb-27-17 09:50AM  at Motley Fool]
▶ 9 Top Pharmaceutical Stocks to Buy for the Dividends   [Feb-15-17 09:30AM  at Kiplinger]
▶ [$$] Medical-Device Company Enters Chapter 11   [Dec-19-16 04:56PM  at The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Is Vera Bradley, Inc. (VRA) Worthy of Your Portfolio?   [Dec-12-16 09:44AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Pace Holdings Corp (PACE): Hedge Fund Sentiment Unchanged   [Dec-08-16 07:39AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Fitbit, Vodafone Sink into Tuesdays 52-Week Low Club   [Nov-29-16 04:04PM  at 24/7 Wall St.]
▶ Why PDL BioPharma Inc. Is Down 14.8% Today   [12:57PM  at Motley Fool]
▶ Why H&R Block, PDL BioPharma, and Tutor Perini Slumped Today   [Nov-16-16 06:43PM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of PDLI Financial statements of PDLI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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