Intrinsic value of PDL BioPharma - PDLI

Previous Close

$2.48

  Intrinsic Value

$22.61

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+812%

Previous close

$2.48

 
Intrinsic value

$22.61

 
Up/down potential

+812%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of PDLI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -58.64
  16.70
  15.53
  14.48
  13.53
  12.68
  11.91
  11.22
  10.60
  10.04
  9.53
  9.08
  8.67
  8.30
  7.97
  7.68
  7.41
  7.17
  6.95
  6.76
  6.58
  6.42
  6.28
  6.15
  6.04
  5.93
  5.84
  5.76
  5.68
  5.61
  5.55
Revenue, $m
  244
  285
  329
  377
  428
  482
  539
  600
  663
  730
  799
  872
  947
  1,026
  1,108
  1,193
  1,281
  1,373
  1,469
  1,568
  1,671
  1,778
  1,890
  2,006
  2,127
  2,254
  2,385
  2,523
  2,666
  2,815
  2,972
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  16
  19
  21
  24
  27
  31
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  63
  68
  73
  78
  84
  89
  95
  101
  108
  114
  121
  128
  136
  144
  152
  160
  169
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  117
  16
  19
  21
  24
  27
  31
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  54
  58
  63
  68
  73
  78
  84
  89
  95
  101
  108
  114
  121
  128
  136
  144
  152
  160
  169
Operating income, $m
  127
  269
  310
  355
  403
  454
  508
  565
  625
  688
  754
  822
  893
  968
  1,045
  1,125
  1,208
  1,295
  1,385
  1,478
  1,576
  1,677
  1,782
  1,892
  2,006
  2,125
  2,249
  2,379
  2,514
  2,655
  2,802
EBITDA, $m
  139
  289
  333
  382
  433
  488
  546
  608
  672
  739
  810
  883
  960
  1,040
  1,123
  1,209
  1,298
  1,392
  1,488
  1,589
  1,693
  1,802
  1,915
  2,033
  2,156
  2,284
  2,417
  2,556
  2,701
  2,853
  3,011
Interest expense (income), $m
  11
  10
  14
  18
  22
  26
  31
  36
  41
  46
  52
  58
  64
  71
  77
  84
  92
  99
  107
  115
  124
  132
  142
  151
  161
  171
  182
  194
  205
  218
  230
Earnings before tax, $m
  109
  258
  296
  337
  381
  428
  478
  530
  584
  642
  702
  764
  829
  897
  967
  1,041
  1,117
  1,196
  1,278
  1,363
  1,452
  1,545
  1,641
  1,741
  1,845
  1,954
  2,067
  2,185
  2,309
  2,437
  2,572
Tax expense, $m
  45
  70
  80
  91
  103
  116
  129
  143
  158
  173
  189
  206
  224
  242
  261
  281
  302
  323
  345
  368
  392
  417
  443
  470
  498
  527
  558
  590
  623
  658
  694
Net income, $m
  64
  188
  216
  246
  278
  313
  349
  387
  427
  469
  512
  558
  605
  655
  706
  760
  815
  873
  933
  995
  1,060
  1,127
  1,198
  1,271
  1,347
  1,426
  1,509
  1,595
  1,685
  1,779
  1,878

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  242
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,215
  1,134
  1,311
  1,500
  1,703
  1,919
  2,148
  2,389
  2,642
  2,907
  3,184
  3,473
  3,774
  4,088
  4,414
  4,753
  5,105
  5,471
  5,851
  6,246
  6,657
  7,085
  7,530
  7,993
  8,476
  8,979
  9,503
  10,050
  10,621
  11,217
  11,840
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  973
  1,134
  1,311
  1,500
  1,703
  1,919
  2,148
  2,389
  2,642
  2,907
  3,184
  3,473
  3,774
  4,088
  4,414
  4,753
  5,105
  5,471
  5,851
  6,246
  6,657
  7,085
  7,530
  7,993
  8,476
  8,979
  9,503
  10,050
  10,621
  11,217
  11,840
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
  0.251
Average production assets, $m
  515
  601
  694
  795
  903
  1,017
  1,138
  1,266
  1,400
  1,540
  1,687
  1,840
  2,000
  2,166
  2,339
  2,518
  2,705
  2,899
  3,100
  3,310
  3,528
  3,754
  3,990
  4,235
  4,491
  4,757
  5,035
  5,325
  5,628
  5,943
  6,273
Working capital, $m
  268
  30
  35
  40
  46
  52
  58
  64
  71
  78
  86
  93
  101
  110
  119
  128
  137
  147
  157
  168
  179
  190
  202
  215
  228
  241
  255
  270
  285
  301
  318
Total debt, $m
  232
  309
  393
  484
  581
  684
  793
  907
  1,028
  1,155
  1,287
  1,425
  1,568
  1,718
  1,873
  2,035
  2,203
  2,378
  2,559
  2,748
  2,944
  3,148
  3,360
  3,581
  3,811
  4,051
  4,301
  4,562
  4,834
  5,118
  5,415
Total liabilities, $m
  464
  541
  625
  716
  813
  916
  1,025
  1,139
  1,260
  1,387
  1,519
  1,657
  1,800
  1,950
  2,105
  2,267
  2,435
  2,610
  2,791
  2,980
  3,176
  3,380
  3,592
  3,813
  4,043
  4,283
  4,533
  4,794
  5,066
  5,350
  5,647
Total equity, $m
  751
  593
  685
  785
  891
  1,004
  1,123
  1,249
  1,382
  1,520
  1,665
  1,817
  1,974
  2,138
  2,308
  2,486
  2,670
  2,861
  3,060
  3,267
  3,482
  3,705
  3,938
  4,180
  4,433
  4,696
  4,970
  5,256
  5,555
  5,866
  6,192
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,215
  1,134
  1,310
  1,501
  1,704
  1,920
  2,148
  2,388
  2,642
  2,907
  3,184
  3,474
  3,774
  4,088
  4,413
  4,753
  5,105
  5,471
  5,851
  6,247
  6,658
  7,085
  7,530
  7,993
  8,476
  8,979
  9,503
  10,050
  10,621
  11,216
  11,839
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.309
  0.520
  0.570
  0.620
  0.650
  0.680
  0.710
  0.730
  0.740
  0.760
  0.770
  0.780
  0.790
  0.800
  0.810
  0.820
  0.830
  0.830
  0.840
  0.840
  0.850
  0.850
  0.850
  0.860
  0.860
  0.860
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
  0.870
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523
  0.523

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  64
  188
  216
  246
  278
  313
  349
  387
  427
  469
  512
  558
  605
  655
  706
  760
  815
  873
  933
  995
  1,060
  1,127
  1,198
  1,271
  1,347
  1,426
  1,509
  1,595
  1,685
  1,779
  1,878
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  12
  20
  23
  26
  30
  34
  38
  42
  47
  51
  56
  61
  67
  72
  78
  84
  90
  97
  103
  110
  118
  125
  133
  141
  150
  159
  168
  178
  188
  198
  209
Funds from operations, $m
  88
  208
  239
  273
  309
  346
  387
  429
  473
  520
  568
  619
  672
  727
  784
  844
  905
  970
  1,036
  1,106
  1,178
  1,253
  1,331
  1,412
  1,497
  1,585
  1,677
  1,773
  1,873
  1,977
  2,087
Change in working capital, $m
  -14
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
Cash from operations, $m
  102
  204
  235
  268
  303
  341
  380
  422
  467
  513
  561
  611
  664
  719
  775
  835
  896
  960
  1,026
  1,095
  1,167
  1,241
  1,319
  1,399
  1,484
  1,571
  1,663
  1,758
  1,858
  1,961
  2,070
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -17
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -30
  -34
  -38
  -42
  -47
  -51
  -56
  -61
  -67
  -72
  -78
  -84
  -90
  -97
  -103
  -110
  -118
  -125
  -133
  -141
  -150
  -159
  -168
  -178
  -188
  -198
New CAPEX, $m
  -60
  -86
  -93
  -101
  -108
  -114
  -121
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -153
  -160
  -166
  -173
  -180
  -187
  -194
  -202
  -209
  -218
  -227
  -236
  -245
  -256
  -266
  -278
  -290
  -302
  -316
  -330
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -145
  -103
  -113
  -124
  -134
  -144
  -155
  -166
  -176
  -187
  -198
  -209
  -221
  -233
  -245
  -258
  -271
  -284
  -299
  -312
  -328
  -345
  -361
  -378
  -397
  -416
  -437
  -458
  -480
  -504
  -528
Free cash flow, $m
  -43
  101
  121
  144
  169
  196
  225
  257
  290
  326
  363
  402
  443
  486
  531
  577
  625
  676
  728
  782
  838
  897
  958
  1,021
  1,087
  1,155
  1,226
  1,300
  1,378
  1,458
  1,542
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  5
  77
  84
  91
  97
  103
  109
  115
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  150
  155
  162
  168
  175
  181
  189
  196
  204
  212
  221
  230
  240
  250
  261
  272
  284
  297
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -12
  77
  84
  91
  97
  103
  109
  115
  121
  126
  132
  138
  144
  150
  155
  162
  168
  175
  181
  189
  196
  204
  212
  221
  230
  240
  250
  261
  272
  284
  297
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -55
  178
  205
  235
  266
  299
  334
  372
  411
  452
  495
  540
  587
  635
  686
  739
  793
  850
  909
  971
  1,035
  1,101
  1,170
  1,242
  1,317
  1,395
  1,476
  1,561
  1,650
  1,742
  1,839
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -55
  -84
  -92
  -99
  -106
  -113
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -139
  -145
  -151
  -158
  -164
  -170
  -177
  -184
  -191
  -199
  -207
  -215
  -224
  -233
  -242
  -252
  -263
  -274
  -286
  -299
  -312
  -326
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  242
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  336
  113
  135
  160
  186
  215
  246
  279
  313
  350
  389
  429
  471
  516
  561
  609
  659
  710
  764
  820
  877
  937
  1,000
  1,065
  1,132
  1,202
  1,275
  1,351
  1,431
  1,513
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  322
  104
  118
  131
  144
  156
  166
  174
  180
  184
  185
  183
  179
  173
  165
  155
  143
  131
  118
  104
  91
  78
  66
  54
  44
  35
  27
  21
  16
  11
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

PDL BioPharma, Inc. seeks to provide return for its shareholders by acquiring and managing a portfolio of companies, products, royalty agreements and debt facilities in the biotechnology, pharmaceutical and medical device industries. The Company's segments include income generating assets and product sales. The income generating assets segment consists of royalties from issued patents in the United States and elsewhere, covering the humanization of antibodies, which it refers to as the Queen et al. patents; notes and other long-term receivables, royalty rights-at fair value and equity investments. The Company's product sales segment consists of revenue derived from Tekturna, Tekturna HCT, Rasilez and Rasilez HCT (collectively, the Noden Products or Tekturna) sales. It is focused on the acquisition of additional products. As of December 31, 2016, it had a total of five notes receivable transactions outstanding and one note/royalty (hybrid) receivable transaction outstanding.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  PDL BioPharma (PDLI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 6.4
Price to Sales 1.7
Price to Book 0.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4
Price to Free Cash Flow 9.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -58.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -47.8%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -24.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 30.9%
Total Debt to Equity 30.9%
Interest Coverage 11
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.5%
Return On Total Capital 6.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.2%
Return On Equity 8.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 59.6%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 98.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 32.8%
EBITDA Margin 54.1%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 78.7%
Operating Margin 52%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 79.7%
Pre-Tax Margin 44.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 73.6%
Net Profit Margin 26.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46%
Effective Tax Rate 41.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.1%
Payout Ratio 26.6%

PDLI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PDLI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $244 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by PDL BioPharma. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of PDL BioPharma. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PDLI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 16.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PDLI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of PDL BioPharma, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of PDL BioPharma.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PDLI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 5.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PDLI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.5% for PDL BioPharma.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for PDL BioPharma. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PDLI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PDLI are equal to 211.1%.

Life of production assets of 42.9 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in PDL BioPharma operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PDLI is equal to 10.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $751 million for PDL BioPharma - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 162.788 million for PDL BioPharma is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of PDL BioPharma at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ PDL BioPharma posts 3Q profit   [Nov-02-17 05:47PM  Associated Press]
▶ Why Neos Therapeutics Inc (NEOS) Shares Climbed 37% Today   [Oct-26-17 01:34PM  SmarterAnalyst]
▶ PDL BioPharma Appoints Dominique Monnet as President   [Sep-11-17 04:02PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Here's Why PDL BioPharma Inc. Is Soaring Today   [Aug-04-17 12:51PM  Motley Fool]
▶ ETFs with exposure to PDL BioPharma, Inc. : July 24, 2017   [Jul-24-17 06:00PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to PDL BioPharma, Inc. : July 13, 2017   [Jul-13-17 04:26PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to PDL BioPharma, Inc. : July 3, 2017   [Jul-03-17 03:40PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to PDL BioPharma, Inc. : June 20, 2017   [Jun-20-17 03:11PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Noden Pharma Notified of ANDA Filing for Tekturna®   [Jun-05-17 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ PDL BioPharma posts 1Q profit   [May-03-17 05:32PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of PDLI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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