Intrinsic value of Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A - PDM

Previous Close

$19.58

  Intrinsic Value

$3.43

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-82%

Previous close

$19.58

 
Intrinsic value

$3.43

 
Up/down potential

-82%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as PDM.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PDM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -4.96
  10.40
  9.86
  9.37
  8.94
  8.54
  8.19
  7.87
  7.58
  7.32
  7.09
  6.88
  6.69
  6.53
  6.37
  6.24
  6.11
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.31
  5.28
  5.25
Revenue, $m
  556
  614
  674
  738
  803
  872
  944
  1,018
  1,095
  1,175
  1,259
  1,345
  1,435
  1,529
  1,626
  1,728
  1,833
  1,943
  2,058
  2,177
  2,302
  2,432
  2,568
  2,711
  2,859
  3,014
  3,177
  3,347
  3,524
  3,711
  3,906
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  532
  584
  638
  694
  752
  813
  876
  942
  1,010
  1,081
  1,145
  1,222
  1,301
  1,384
  1,471
  1,560
  1,654
  1,752
  1,853
  1,960
  2,070
  2,186
  2,307
  2,434
  2,566
  2,704
  2,849
  3,000
  3,158
  3,324
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  482
  532
  584
  638
  694
  752
  813
  876
  942
  1,010
  1,081
  1,145
  1,222
  1,301
  1,384
  1,471
  1,560
  1,654
  1,752
  1,853
  1,960
  2,070
  2,186
  2,307
  2,434
  2,566
  2,704
  2,849
  3,000
  3,158
  3,324
Operating income, $m
  74
  81
  90
  100
  110
  120
  131
  142
  153
  165
  177
  200
  214
  227
  242
  257
  273
  289
  306
  324
  343
  362
  382
  403
  425
  449
  473
  498
  524
  552
  581
EBITDA, $m
  276
  305
  335
  366
  399
  433
  468
  505
  543
  583
  624
  667
  712
  759
  807
  857
  910
  964
  1,021
  1,080
  1,142
  1,207
  1,274
  1,345
  1,419
  1,496
  1,576
  1,660
  1,749
  1,841
  1,938
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  71
  79
  88
  97
  107
  116
  127
  137
  148
  160
  172
  184
  197
  211
  225
  239
  254
  270
  287
  304
  322
  340
  360
  380
  402
  424
  447
  472
  497
  524
Earnings before tax, $m
  9
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
Tax expense, $m
  0
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
Net income, $m
  9
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,368
  4,833
  5,310
  5,808
  6,327
  6,867
  7,429
  8,014
  8,622
  9,253
  9,909
  10,592
  11,301
  12,038
  12,805
  13,604
  14,435
  15,301
  16,204
  17,146
  18,128
  19,153
  20,224
  21,343
  22,512
  23,735
  25,013
  26,351
  27,752
  29,218
  30,753
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,361
  4,833
  5,310
  5,808
  6,327
  6,867
  7,429
  8,014
  8,622
  9,253
  9,909
  10,592
  11,301
  12,038
  12,805
  13,604
  14,435
  15,301
  16,204
  17,146
  18,128
  19,153
  20,224
  21,343
  22,512
  23,735
  25,013
  26,351
  27,752
  29,218
  30,753
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
Average production assets, $m
  2,916
  3,220
  3,537
  3,869
  4,214
  4,574
  4,949
  5,338
  5,743
  6,164
  6,601
  7,055
  7,527
  8,019
  8,530
  9,062
  9,615
  10,192
  10,794
  11,421
  12,075
  12,758
  13,472
  14,217
  14,996
  15,810
  16,662
  17,553
  18,486
  19,462
  20,485
Working capital, $m
  0
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
Total debt, $m
  2,020
  2,266
  2,514
  2,774
  3,044
  3,326
  3,619
  3,923
  4,240
  4,569
  4,911
  5,266
  5,636
  6,020
  6,419
  6,835
  7,269
  7,720
  8,190
  8,681
  9,193
  9,727
  10,285
  10,868
  11,477
  12,114
  12,780
  13,477
  14,207
  14,970
  15,770
Total liabilities, $m
  2,272
  2,518
  2,766
  3,026
  3,296
  3,578
  3,871
  4,175
  4,492
  4,821
  5,163
  5,518
  5,888
  6,272
  6,671
  7,087
  7,521
  7,972
  8,442
  8,933
  9,445
  9,979
  10,537
  11,120
  11,729
  12,366
  13,032
  13,729
  14,459
  15,222
  16,022
Total equity, $m
  2,096
  2,315
  2,543
  2,782
  3,030
  3,289
  3,559
  3,839
  4,130
  4,432
  4,747
  5,073
  5,413
  5,766
  6,134
  6,516
  6,914
  7,329
  7,762
  8,213
  8,683
  9,174
  9,687
  10,223
  10,783
  11,369
  11,981
  12,622
  13,293
  13,995
  14,731
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,368
  4,833
  5,309
  5,808
  6,326
  6,867
  7,430
  8,014
  8,622
  9,253
  9,910
  10,591
  11,301
  12,038
  12,805
  13,603
  14,435
  15,301
  16,204
  17,146
  18,128
  19,153
  20,224
  21,343
  22,512
  23,735
  25,013
  26,351
  27,752
  29,217
  30,753
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.964
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
  1.010
  1.020
  1.020
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.070
  1.070
  1.070
  1.070
  1.070
  1.070
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  9
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  40
  42
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  202
  223
  244
  266
  289
  313
  338
  363
  390
  418
  447
  467
  499
  531
  565
  600
  637
  675
  715
  756
  800
  845
  892
  942
  993
  1,047
  1,103
  1,162
  1,224
  1,289
  1,357
Funds from operations, $m
  220
  231
  252
  275
  298
  323
  348
  374
  402
  430
  460
  488
  520
  553
  588
  624
  661
  700
  741
  784
  828
  874
  923
  973
  1,026
  1,081
  1,139
  1,199
  1,263
  1,329
  1,398
Change in working capital, $m
  -16
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
Cash from operations, $m
  236
  232
  253
  276
  299
  323
  349
  375
  403
  431
  461
  489
  521
  554
  589
  625
  663
  702
  743
  785
  830
  876
  924
  975
  1,028
  1,083
  1,141
  1,202
  1,265
  1,331
  1,401
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -193
  -213
  -234
  -256
  -279
  -303
  -328
  -354
  -380
  -408
  -437
  -467
  -499
  -531
  -565
  -600
  -637
  -675
  -715
  -756
  -800
  -845
  -892
  -942
  -993
  -1,047
  -1,103
  -1,162
  -1,224
  -1,289
New CAPEX, $m
  -460
  -304
  -317
  -332
  -346
  -360
  -375
  -389
  -405
  -421
  -437
  -454
  -472
  -491
  -511
  -532
  -554
  -577
  -601
  -627
  -654
  -683
  -713
  -745
  -779
  -814
  -852
  -891
  -933
  -977
  -1,023
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -120
  -497
  -530
  -566
  -602
  -639
  -678
  -717
  -759
  -801
  -845
  -891
  -939
  -990
  -1,042
  -1,097
  -1,154
  -1,214
  -1,276
  -1,342
  -1,410
  -1,483
  -1,558
  -1,637
  -1,721
  -1,807
  -1,899
  -1,994
  -2,095
  -2,201
  -2,312
Free cash flow, $m
  116
  -265
  -278
  -290
  -303
  -316
  -329
  -342
  -356
  -370
  -384
  -402
  -419
  -435
  -453
  -472
  -491
  -512
  -534
  -557
  -581
  -607
  -634
  -662
  -692
  -724
  -758
  -793
  -830
  -869
  -911
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -12
  246
  248
  259
  270
  282
  293
  305
  317
  329
  342
  355
  369
  384
  400
  416
  433
  451
  470
  491
  512
  534
  558
  583
  609
  637
  666
  697
  730
  764
  800
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -8
  218
  220
  230
  239
  249
  259
  269
  280
  290
  302
  306
  318
  331
  345
  359
  374
  390
  406
  424
  442
  462
  482
  504
  527
  551
  577
  604
  632
  662
  694
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -22
  464
  468
  489
  509
  531
  552
  574
  597
  619
  644
  661
  687
  715
  745
  775
  807
  841
  876
  915
  954
  996
  1,040
  1,087
  1,136
  1,188
  1,243
  1,301
  1,362
  1,426
  1,494
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  94
  200
  191
  199
  207
  215
  223
  232
  241
  250
  259
  259
  269
  280
  291
  303
  316
  329
  343
  357
  373
  389
  407
  425
  444
  464
  485
  508
  532
  557
  583
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  99
  -226
  -228
  -238
  -249
  -259
  -269
  -280
  -291
  -302
  -314
  -327
  -340
  -353
  -367
  -382
  -398
  -415
  -432
  -451
  -471
  -491
  -513
  -536
  -560
  -586
  -613
  -641
  -671
  -702
  -735
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -20
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -139
  -146
  -153
Discount rate, %
 
  8.50
  8.93
  9.37
  9.84
  10.33
  10.85
  11.39
  11.96
  12.56
  13.19
  13.85
  14.54
  15.26
  16.03
  16.83
  17.67
  18.55
  19.48
  20.46
  21.48
  22.55
  23.68
  24.86
  26.11
  27.41
  28.78
  30.22
  31.73
  33.32
  34.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -18
  -32
  -30
  -29
  -27
  -25
  -23
  -20
  -18
  -16
  -16
  -14
  -12
  -10
  -8
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  92.9
  86.8
  81.4
  76.5
  72.2
  68.2
  64.6
  61.3
  58.3
  55.5
  53.0
  50.7
  48.5
  46.5
  44.6
  42.7
  41.0
  39.4
  37.9
  36.5
  35.1
  33.8
  32.5
  31.4
  30.2
  29.1
  28.1
  27.1
  26.1
  25.2

Piedmont Office Realty Trust, Inc. is an integrated self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company's business consists primarily of owning, managing, operating, leasing, acquiring, developing, investing in, and disposing of office real estate assets. As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned and operated 65 in-service office properties, one redevelopment asset, two development assets and one office building through an unconsolidated joint venture. Its properties are located in areas, including New York, Chicago, Atlanta, Dallas, Boston, Minneapolis and Orlando. Its tenant base includes industries, such as business services, depository institutions, educational services, real estate, legal services and insurance carriers. The Company conducts business primarily through Piedmont Operating Partnership, L.P. (Piedmont OP). It performs the management of its buildings through its subsidiaries, including Piedmont Government Services, LLC and Piedmont Office Management, LLC.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A (PDM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 316
Price to Sales 5.1
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12
Price to Free Cash Flow -12.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -8.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 96.4%
Total Debt to Equity 96.4%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Return On Total Capital 0.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Return On Equity 0.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 60.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59%
EBITDA Margin 37.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.9%
Operating Margin 13.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Net Profit Margin 1.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 1022.2%

PDM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PDM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $556 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PDM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 10.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.5%, whose default value for PDM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PDM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PDM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PDM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PDM are equal to 524.5%.

Life of production assets of 15.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PDM is equal to -1.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2096 million for Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 145.557 million for Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Piedmont Office reports 2Q results   [Aug-03-17 05:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ 4 REIT Plays with Beat Potential in Q2 Earnings   [Jul-19-17 05:19PM  Zacks]
▶ Piedmont Office reports 1Q results   [May-03-17 06:56AM  Associated Press]
▶ Piedmont Office reports 4Q results   [Feb-08-17 07:34PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Piedmont Office Realty Trust, Inc. (PDM) A Stock to Avoid?   [Dec-10-16 05:30PM  at Insider Monkey]
Financial statements of PDM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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