Intrinsic value of Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A - PDM

Previous Close

$19.96

  Intrinsic Value

$3.45

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-83%

  Value-price divergence*

-20%

Previous close

$19.96

 
Intrinsic value

$3.45

 
Up/down potential

-83%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

-20%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as PDM.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PDM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -4.96
  7.20
  6.98
  6.78
  6.60
  6.44
  6.30
  6.17
  6.05
  5.95
  5.85
  5.77
  5.69
  5.62
  5.56
  5.50
  5.45
  5.41
  5.37
  5.33
  5.30
  5.27
  5.24
  5.22
  5.19
  5.18
  5.16
  5.14
  5.13
  5.12
  5.10
Revenue, $m
  556
  596
  638
  681
  726
  773
  821
  872
  925
  980
  1,037
  1,097
  1,159
  1,224
  1,293
  1,364
  1,438
  1,516
  1,597
  1,682
  1,771
  1,865
  1,962
  2,065
  2,172
  2,284
  2,402
  2,526
  2,655
  2,791
  2,934
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  517
  553
  589
  628
  668
  709
  752
  797
  844
  893
  934
  987
  1,042
  1,100
  1,161
  1,224
  1,290
  1,359
  1,432
  1,508
  1,587
  1,670
  1,757
  1,849
  1,944
  2,045
  2,150
  2,260
  2,376
  2,497
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  482
  517
  553
  589
  628
  668
  709
  752
  797
  844
  893
  934
  987
  1,042
  1,100
  1,161
  1,224
  1,290
  1,359
  1,432
  1,508
  1,587
  1,670
  1,757
  1,849
  1,944
  2,045
  2,150
  2,260
  2,376
  2,497
Operating income, $m
  74
  79
  85
  91
  98
  105
  112
  120
  128
  136
  144
  163
  173
  182
  192
  203
  214
  226
  238
  250
  264
  277
  292
  307
  323
  340
  357
  376
  395
  415
  437
EBITDA, $m
  276
  296
  316
  338
  360
  383
  407
  433
  459
  486
  515
  544
  575
  608
  641
  677
  713
  752
  792
  835
  879
  925
  974
  1,024
  1,078
  1,133
  1,192
  1,253
  1,317
  1,385
  1,456
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  71
  77
  83
  89
  95
  102
  109
  116
  124
  132
  140
  149
  158
  167
  177
  187
  198
  209
  220
  233
  246
  259
  273
  288
  303
  319
  336
  354
  372
  392
Earnings before tax, $m
  9
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
Tax expense, $m
  0
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
Net income, $m
  9
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,368
  4,693
  5,021
  5,361
  5,715
  6,084
  6,467
  6,866
  7,281
  7,714
  8,166
  8,637
  9,128
  9,641
  10,177
  10,737
  11,323
  11,935
  12,576
  13,246
  13,948
  14,682
  15,452
  16,258
  17,102
  17,988
  18,915
  19,888
  20,908
  21,977
  23,099
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,361
  4,693
  5,021
  5,361
  5,715
  6,084
  6,467
  6,866
  7,281
  7,714
  8,166
  8,637
  9,128
  9,641
  10,177
  10,737
  11,323
  11,935
  12,576
  13,246
  13,948
  14,682
  15,452
  16,258
  17,102
  17,988
  18,915
  19,888
  20,908
  21,977
  23,099
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
Average production assets, $m
  2,916
  3,126
  3,344
  3,571
  3,807
  4,052
  4,308
  4,573
  4,850
  5,139
  5,439
  5,753
  6,080
  6,422
  6,779
  7,152
  7,542
  7,950
  8,377
  8,823
  9,291
  9,780
  10,293
  10,830
  11,392
  11,982
  12,600
  13,248
  13,927
  14,639
  15,387
Working capital, $m
  0
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
Total debt, $m
  2,020
  2,193
  2,364
  2,541
  2,726
  2,918
  3,117
  3,325
  3,542
  3,767
  4,002
  4,248
  4,504
  4,771
  5,050
  5,342
  5,647
  5,966
  6,300
  6,649
  7,015
  7,397
  7,798
  8,218
  8,658
  9,120
  9,603
  10,110
  10,641
  11,198
  11,783
Total liabilities, $m
  2,272
  2,445
  2,616
  2,793
  2,978
  3,170
  3,369
  3,577
  3,794
  4,019
  4,254
  4,500
  4,756
  5,023
  5,302
  5,594
  5,899
  6,218
  6,552
  6,901
  7,267
  7,649
  8,050
  8,470
  8,910
  9,372
  9,855
  10,362
  10,893
  11,450
  12,035
Total equity, $m
  2,096
  2,248
  2,405
  2,568
  2,738
  2,914
  3,098
  3,289
  3,488
  3,695
  3,911
  4,137
  4,372
  4,618
  4,875
  5,143
  5,424
  5,717
  6,024
  6,345
  6,681
  7,033
  7,401
  7,787
  8,192
  8,616
  9,060
  9,526
  10,015
  10,527
  11,064
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,368
  4,693
  5,021
  5,361
  5,716
  6,084
  6,467
  6,866
  7,282
  7,714
  8,165
  8,637
  9,128
  9,641
  10,177
  10,737
  11,323
  11,935
  12,576
  13,246
  13,948
  14,682
  15,451
  16,257
  17,102
  17,988
  18,915
  19,888
  20,908
  21,977
  23,099
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.964
  0.980
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
  1.010
  1.010
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
  1.060
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  9
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  17
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  202
  217
  231
  246
  262
  278
  295
  313
  331
  350
  370
  381
  403
  425
  449
  474
  499
  526
  555
  584
  615
  648
  682
  717
  754
  793
  834
  877
  922
  969
  1,019
Funds from operations, $m
  220
  223
  237
  253
  269
  285
  303
  321
  339
  359
  379
  398
  420
  443
  467
  493
  519
  547
  576
  606
  638
  671
  706
  742
  780
  820
  862
  906
  952
  1,001
  1,052
Change in working capital, $m
  -16
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  236
  223
  238
  253
  269
  286
  303
  321
  340
  360
  380
  399
  421
  444
  468
  494
  520
  548
  577
  607
  639
  672
  707
  744
  782
  822
  864
  908
  954
  1,003
  1,053
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -193
  -207
  -221
  -237
  -252
  -268
  -285
  -303
  -321
  -340
  -360
  -381
  -403
  -425
  -449
  -474
  -499
  -526
  -555
  -584
  -615
  -648
  -682
  -717
  -754
  -793
  -834
  -877
  -922
  -969
New CAPEX, $m
  -460
  -210
  -218
  -227
  -236
  -245
  -255
  -266
  -277
  -288
  -301
  -314
  -327
  -342
  -357
  -373
  -390
  -408
  -427
  -447
  -467
  -489
  -513
  -537
  -563
  -590
  -618
  -648
  -679
  -712
  -747
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -120
  -403
  -425
  -448
  -473
  -497
  -523
  -551
  -580
  -609
  -641
  -674
  -708
  -745
  -782
  -822
  -864
  -907
  -953
  -1,002
  -1,051
  -1,104
  -1,161
  -1,219
  -1,280
  -1,344
  -1,411
  -1,482
  -1,556
  -1,634
  -1,716
Free cash flow, $m
  116
  -180
  -187
  -195
  -203
  -211
  -220
  -230
  -240
  -250
  -261
  -275
  -287
  -300
  -314
  -328
  -344
  -359
  -376
  -394
  -413
  -432
  -453
  -475
  -498
  -522
  -548
  -574
  -603
  -632
  -663
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -12
  173
  171
  177
  184
  192
  200
  208
  216
  226
  235
  245
  256
  267
  279
  292
  305
  319
  334
  349
  366
  383
  401
  420
  440
  461
  483
  507
  531
  557
  584
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -8
  153
  151
  157
  163
  169
  176
  183
  191
  199
  207
  209
  218
  228
  238
  249
  261
  273
  286
  299
  314
  329
  344
  361
  379
  397
  416
  437
  458
  481
  505
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -22
  326
  322
  334
  347
  361
  376
  391
  407
  425
  442
  454
  474
  495
  517
  541
  566
  592
  620
  648
  680
  712
  745
  781
  819
  858
  899
  944
  989
  1,038
  1,089
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  94
  146
  134
  139
  144
  150
  155
  161
  168
  174
  181
  179
  187
  195
  203
  213
  222
  232
  243
  254
  266
  279
  292
  306
  321
  336
  352
  369
  387
  406
  426
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  99
  -159
  -157
  -163
  -170
  -176
  -184
  -191
  -199
  -207
  -216
  -226
  -235
  -246
  -257
  -268
  -280
  -293
  -307
  -321
  -336
  -352
  -369
  -386
  -405
  -424
  -444
  -466
  -489
  -512
  -537
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -6
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -101
  -106
  -111
Discount rate, %
 
  8.50
  8.93
  9.37
  9.84
  10.33
  10.85
  11.39
  11.96
  12.56
  13.19
  13.85
  14.54
  15.26
  16.03
  16.83
  17.67
  18.55
  19.48
  20.46
  21.48
  22.55
  23.68
  24.86
  26.11
  27.41
  28.78
  30.22
  31.73
  33.32
  34.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -5
  -19
  -18
  -17
  -16
  -15
  -14
  -13
  -11
  -10
  -11
  -10
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  95.0
  90.5
  86.5
  82.7
  79.1
  75.8
  72.7
  69.7
  67.0
  64.4
  62.0
  59.7
  57.5
  55.4
  53.4
  51.6
  49.7
  48.0
  46.3
  44.7
  43.2
  41.7
  40.3
  38.9
  37.6
  36.3
  35.1
  33.9
  32.8
  31.7

Piedmont Office Realty Trust, Inc. engages in the acquisition and ownership of commercial real estate properties in the United States. Its property portfolio primarily consists of office and industrial buildings, warehouses, and manufacturing facilities. As of December 31, 2007, the company owned interests in 83 properties that are wholly owned and controlled through consolidated joint ventures. It has elected to be taxed as a real estate investment trust and would not be subject to federal income tax, if it distributes approximately 90% of its taxable income to its shareholders. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Norcross, Georgia.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A (PDM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 322.1
Price to Sales 5.2
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.3
Price to Free Cash Flow -12.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -8.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 96.4%
Total Debt to Equity 96.4%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Return On Total Capital 0.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Return On Equity 0.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 60.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59%
EBITDA Margin 37.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.9%
Operating Margin 13.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Net Profit Margin 1.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 1022.2%

PDM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PDM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $556 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PDM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 7.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.5%, whose default value for PDM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PDM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PDM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PDM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PDM are equal to 524.5%.

Life of production assets of 15.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PDM is equal to -1.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2096 million for Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 144.806 million for Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Piedmont Office reports 2Q results   [Aug-03-17 05:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ 4 REIT Plays with Beat Potential in Q2 Earnings   [Jul-19-17 05:19PM  Zacks]
▶ Piedmont Office reports 1Q results   [May-03-17 06:56AM  Associated Press]
▶ Piedmont Office reports 4Q results   [Feb-08-17 07:34PM  Associated Press]
▶ Is Piedmont Office Realty Trust, Inc. (PDM) A Stock to Avoid?   [Dec-10-16 05:30PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ NASA's HQ, one of D.C.'s largest federal leases, offered for sale   [Sep-20-16 12:05PM  at bizjournals.com]
Stock chart of PDM Financial statements of PDM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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