Intrinsic value of Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A - PDM

Previous Close

$19.68

  Intrinsic Value

$3.45

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-82%

Previous close

$19.68

 
Intrinsic value

$3.45

 
Up/down potential

-82%

 
Rating

str. sell

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as PDM.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PDM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -4.96
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  556
  567
  580
  595
  612
  630
  651
  673
  697
  723
  750
  780
  812
  845
  881
  919
  960
  1,002
  1,047
  1,095
  1,145
  1,198
  1,254
  1,313
  1,376
  1,441
  1,510
  1,583
  1,659
  1,739
  1,824
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  493
  504
  516
  531
  546
  564
  583
  603
  625
  649
  664
  691
  720
  750
  783
  817
  853
  892
  932
  975
  1,020
  1,068
  1,118
  1,171
  1,227
  1,285
  1,347
  1,412
  1,481
  1,552
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  482
  493
  504
  516
  531
  546
  564
  583
  603
  625
  649
  664
  691
  720
  750
  783
  817
  853
  892
  932
  975
  1,020
  1,068
  1,118
  1,171
  1,227
  1,285
  1,347
  1,412
  1,481
  1,552
Operating income, $m
  74
  74
  76
  79
  81
  84
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  170
  178
  187
  195
  205
  214
  225
  236
  247
  259
  271
EBITDA, $m
  276
  281
  288
  295
  304
  313
  323
  334
  346
  359
  372
  387
  403
  419
  437
  456
  476
  497
  520
  543
  568
  595
  622
  652
  683
  715
  749
  785
  823
  863
  905
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  71
  73
  74
  77
  79
  82
  85
  88
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  113
  118
  123
  129
  135
  142
  148
  156
  163
  171
  180
  189
  198
  208
  218
  229
  241
Earnings before tax, $m
  9
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
Tax expense, $m
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
Net income, $m
  9
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,368
  4,466
  4,568
  4,686
  4,817
  4,963
  5,124
  5,298
  5,487
  5,691
  5,909
  6,143
  6,392
  6,657
  6,939
  7,239
  7,556
  7,892
  8,247
  8,622
  9,018
  9,436
  9,877
  10,342
  10,831
  11,347
  11,890
  12,462
  13,063
  13,695
  14,361
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,361
  4,466
  4,568
  4,686
  4,817
  4,963
  5,124
  5,298
  5,487
  5,691
  5,909
  6,143
  6,392
  6,657
  6,939
  7,239
  7,556
  7,892
  8,247
  8,622
  9,018
  9,436
  9,877
  10,342
  10,831
  11,347
  11,890
  12,462
  13,063
  13,695
  14,361
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
  0.127
Average production assets, $m
  2,916
  2,975
  3,043
  3,121
  3,209
  3,306
  3,413
  3,529
  3,655
  3,791
  3,936
  4,092
  4,258
  4,435
  4,622
  4,822
  5,033
  5,257
  5,493
  5,743
  6,007
  6,286
  6,579
  6,889
  7,215
  7,559
  7,920
  8,301
  8,701
  9,123
  9,566
Working capital, $m
  0
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
Total debt, $m
  2,020
  2,075
  2,128
  2,189
  2,258
  2,334
  2,417
  2,508
  2,607
  2,713
  2,827
  2,948
  3,078
  3,216
  3,363
  3,519
  3,685
  3,860
  4,045
  4,240
  4,447
  4,664
  4,894
  5,136
  5,391
  5,660
  5,943
  6,240
  6,554
  6,883
  7,230
Total liabilities, $m
  2,272
  2,327
  2,380
  2,441
  2,510
  2,586
  2,669
  2,760
  2,859
  2,965
  3,079
  3,200
  3,330
  3,468
  3,615
  3,771
  3,937
  4,112
  4,297
  4,492
  4,699
  4,916
  5,146
  5,388
  5,643
  5,912
  6,195
  6,492
  6,806
  7,135
  7,482
Total equity, $m
  2,096
  2,139
  2,188
  2,244
  2,308
  2,378
  2,454
  2,538
  2,628
  2,726
  2,830
  2,942
  3,062
  3,189
  3,324
  3,467
  3,619
  3,780
  3,950
  4,130
  4,320
  4,520
  4,731
  4,954
  5,188
  5,435
  5,695
  5,969
  6,257
  6,560
  6,879
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,368
  4,466
  4,568
  4,685
  4,818
  4,964
  5,123
  5,298
  5,487
  5,691
  5,909
  6,142
  6,392
  6,657
  6,939
  7,238
  7,556
  7,892
  8,247
  8,622
  9,019
  9,436
  9,877
  10,342
  10,831
  11,347
  11,890
  12,461
  13,063
  13,695
  14,361
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.964
  0.970
  0.970
  0.980
  0.980
  0.980
  0.990
  0.990
  0.990
  1.000
  1.000
  1.000
  1.010
  1.010
  1.010
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.020
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.030
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.040
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
  1.050
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479
  0.479

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  9
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  17
  17
  18
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  202
  207
  211
  217
  222
  229
  236
  244
  252
  261
  271
  271
  282
  294
  306
  319
  333
  348
  364
  380
  398
  416
  436
  456
  478
  501
  525
  550
  576
  604
  634
Funds from operations, $m
  220
  210
  214
  220
  226
  232
  240
  248
  256
  266
  276
  283
  295
  307
  320
  333
  348
  363
  379
  396
  414
  433
  453
  474
  496
  519
  544
  570
  597
  626
  656
Change in working capital, $m
  -16
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  236
  210
  214
  220
  226
  233
  240
  248
  257
  266
  276
  284
  295
  307
  320
  334
  348
  363
  380
  397
  415
  434
  454
  475
  497
  520
  545
  571
  598
  627
  657
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -193
  -197
  -202
  -207
  -213
  -219
  -226
  -234
  -242
  -251
  -261
  -271
  -282
  -294
  -306
  -319
  -333
  -348
  -364
  -380
  -398
  -416
  -436
  -456
  -478
  -501
  -525
  -550
  -576
  -604
New CAPEX, $m
  -460
  -59
  -68
  -78
  -88
  -97
  -107
  -116
  -126
  -136
  -145
  -156
  -166
  -177
  -188
  -199
  -211
  -224
  -237
  -250
  -264
  -278
  -294
  -310
  -326
  -343
  -362
  -381
  -401
  -421
  -443
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -120
  -252
  -265
  -280
  -295
  -310
  -326
  -342
  -360
  -378
  -396
  -417
  -437
  -459
  -482
  -505
  -530
  -557
  -585
  -614
  -644
  -676
  -710
  -746
  -782
  -821
  -863
  -906
  -951
  -997
  -1,047
Free cash flow, $m
  116
  -42
  -51
  -60
  -69
  -77
  -86
  -94
  -103
  -112
  -121
  -132
  -142
  -151
  -161
  -172
  -182
  -194
  -205
  -217
  -230
  -243
  -256
  -271
  -286
  -301
  -317
  -334
  -352
  -371
  -391
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -12
  55
  54
  61
  69
  76
  83
  91
  98
  106
  114
  122
  130
  138
  147
  156
  165
  175
  185
  195
  206
  218
  230
  242
  255
  269
  283
  298
  313
  330
  347
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -8
  47
  46
  53
  60
  66
  73
  79
  86
  93
  100
  99
  107
  114
  122
  129
  138
  146
  155
  164
  174
  184
  194
  205
  216
  228
  241
  254
  267
  282
  296
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -22
  102
  100
  114
  129
  142
  156
  170
  184
  199
  214
  221
  237
  252
  269
  285
  303
  321
  340
  359
  380
  402
  424
  447
  471
  497
  524
  552
  580
  612
  643
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  94
  60
  49
  54
  60
  65
  71
  76
  82
  87
  93
  89
  95
  101
  107
  114
  120
  127
  135
  142
  150
  159
  167
  176
  186
  196
  206
  217
  228
  240
  253
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  99
  -50
  -49
  -56
  -63
  -70
  -77
  -84
  -90
  -97
  -105
  -112
  -119
  -127
  -135
  -143
  -152
  -161
  -170
  -180
  -190
  -200
  -211
  -223
  -235
  -247
  -260
  -274
  -288
  -303
  -319
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  17
  0
  -2
  -3
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -9
  -10
  -12
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
Discount rate, %
 
  8.50
  8.93
  9.37
  9.84
  10.33
  10.85
  11.39
  11.96
  12.56
  13.19
  13.85
  14.54
  15.26
  16.03
  16.83
  17.67
  18.55
  19.48
  20.46
  21.48
  22.55
  23.68
  24.86
  26.11
  27.41
  28.78
  30.22
  31.73
  33.32
  34.99
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  16
  0
  -1
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -3
  -6
  -5
  -4
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  98.4
  96.8
  95.1
  93.3
  91.4
  89.3
  87.3
  85.1
  83.0
  80.8
  78.8
  76.7
  74.7
  72.7
  70.6
  68.6
  66.6
  64.7
  62.8
  60.9
  59.1
  57.2
  55.5
  53.7
  52.1
  50.4
  48.8
  47.3
  45.8
  44.3

Piedmont Office Realty Trust, Inc. is an integrated self-managed real estate investment trust (REIT). The Company's business consists primarily of owning, managing, operating, leasing, acquiring, developing, investing in, and disposing of office real estate assets. As of December 31, 2016, the Company owned and operated 65 in-service office properties, one redevelopment asset, two development assets and one office building through an unconsolidated joint venture. Its properties are located in areas, including New York, Chicago, Atlanta, Dallas, Boston, Minneapolis and Orlando. Its tenant base includes industries, such as business services, depository institutions, educational services, real estate, legal services and insurance carriers. The Company conducts business primarily through Piedmont Operating Partnership, L.P. (Piedmont OP). It performs the management of its buildings through its subsidiaries, including Piedmont Government Services, LLC and Piedmont Office Management, LLC.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A (PDM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 317.6
Price to Sales 5.1
Price to Book 1.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 12.1
Price to Free Cash Flow -12.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -8.2%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.2%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 96.4%
Total Debt to Equity 96.4%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Return On Total Capital 0.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.4%
Return On Equity 0.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 60.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 59%
EBITDA Margin 37.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.9%
Operating Margin 13.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Net Profit Margin 1.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Payout Ratio 1022.2%

PDM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PDM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $556 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PDM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.5%, whose default value for PDM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PDM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PDM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PDM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PDM are equal to 524.5%.

Life of production assets of 15.1 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PDM is equal to -1.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2096 million for Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 144.824 million for Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Piedmont Office Realty Trust Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.9 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ PIEDMONT COMPLETES SALE OF 14-PROPERTY PORTFOLIO   [Jan-08-18 04:21PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Piedmont Office Realty Trust, Inc. Announces Lease Renewal   [Dec-06-17 04:31PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Piedmont Office reports 3Q results   [05:49AM  Associated Press]
▶ Piedmont Office reports 2Q results   [Aug-03-17 05:32PM  Associated Press]
▶ 4 REIT Plays with Beat Potential in Q2 Earnings   [Jul-19-17 05:19PM  Zacks]
▶ Piedmont Office reports 1Q results   [May-03-17 06:56AM  Associated Press]
▶ Piedmont Office reports 4Q results   [Feb-08-17 07:34PM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of PDM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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