Intrinsic value of Pegasystems - PEGA

Previous Close

$52.00

  Intrinsic Value

$12.40

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-76%

Previous close

$52.00

 
Intrinsic value

$12.40

 
Up/down potential

-76%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of PEGA stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  9.81
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  750
  765
  783
  803
  825
  850
  878
  908
  940
  975
  1,012
  1,052
  1,095
  1,140
  1,189
  1,240
  1,294
  1,352
  1,413
  1,477
  1,545
  1,617
  1,692
  1,772
  1,856
  1,944
  2,037
  2,135
  2,238
  2,346
  2,460
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  692
  708
  726
  746
  769
  793
  820
  849
  880
  914
  942
  980
  1,021
  1,064
  1,110
  1,159
  1,210
  1,265
  1,322
  1,383
  1,447
  1,515
  1,586
  1,661
  1,740
  1,824
  1,911
  2,003
  2,100
  2,203
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  713
  692
  708
  726
  746
  769
  793
  820
  849
  880
  914
  942
  980
  1,021
  1,064
  1,110
  1,159
  1,210
  1,265
  1,322
  1,383
  1,447
  1,515
  1,586
  1,661
  1,740
  1,824
  1,911
  2,003
  2,100
  2,203
Operating income, $m
  38
  73
  75
  77
  79
  82
  85
  88
  91
  95
  99
  110
  115
  119
  125
  130
  136
  142
  148
  155
  162
  169
  177
  186
  194
  204
  213
  224
  234
  246
  258
EBITDA, $m
  62
  94
  96
  98
  101
  104
  107
  111
  115
  119
  124
  129
  134
  140
  145
  152
  158
  165
  173
  181
  189
  198
  207
  217
  227
  238
  249
  261
  274
  287
  301
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  18
  19
  21
  22
  24
Earnings before tax, $m
  35
  73
  74
  76
  78
  81
  83
  86
  89
  92
  95
  106
  110
  114
  119
  123
  128
  134
  139
  145
  151
  157
  164
  172
  179
  187
  196
  204
  214
  224
  234
Tax expense, $m
  8
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  29
  30
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  44
  46
  48
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
Net income, $m
  27
  53
  54
  56
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  70
  78
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  171

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  134
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  655
  531
  543
  557
  573
  590
  610
  630
  653
  677
  703
  731
  760
  792
  826
  861
  899
  939
  981
  1,026
  1,073
  1,123
  1,175
  1,230
  1,289
  1,350
  1,415
  1,483
  1,554
  1,629
  1,708
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  521
  531
  543
  557
  573
  590
  610
  630
  653
  677
  703
  731
  760
  792
  826
  861
  899
  939
  981
  1,026
  1,073
  1,123
  1,175
  1,230
  1,289
  1,350
  1,415
  1,483
  1,554
  1,629
  1,708
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.440
  1.441
  1.442
  1.442
  1.440
  1.441
  1.439
  1.441
  1.440
  1.440
  1.440
  1.439
  1.441
  1.439
  1.439
  1.440
  1.439
  1.440
  1.440
  1.440
  1.440
  1.440
  1.440
  1.441
  1.440
  1.440
  1.440
  1.440
  1.440
  1.440
  1.440
Average production assets, $m
  73
  74
  76
  78
  80
  82
  85
  88
  91
  95
  98
  102
  106
  111
  115
  120
  126
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  180
  189
  198
  207
  217
  228
  239
Working capital, $m
  138
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
Total debt, $m
  0
  6
  14
  22
  32
  42
  54
  67
  81
  95
  111
  128
  146
  166
  186
  208
  231
  256
  281
  309
  338
  368
  400
  434
  470
  507
  547
  588
  632
  678
  727
Total liabilities, $m
  319
  325
  333
  341
  351
  361
  373
  386
  400
  414
  430
  447
  465
  485
  505
  527
  550
  575
  600
  628
  657
  687
  719
  753
  789
  826
  866
  907
  951
  997
  1,046
Total equity, $m
  336
  206
  211
  216
  222
  229
  237
  245
  253
  263
  273
  284
  295
  307
  320
  334
  349
  364
  381
  398
  416
  436
  456
  477
  500
  524
  549
  575
  603
  632
  663
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  655
  531
  544
  557
  573
  590
  610
  631
  653
  677
  703
  731
  760
  792
  825
  861
  899
  939
  981
  1,026
  1,073
  1,123
  1,175
  1,230
  1,289
  1,350
  1,415
  1,482
  1,554
  1,629
  1,709
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  0.030
  0.060
  0.100
  0.140
  0.180
  0.230
  0.270
  0.320
  0.360
  0.410
  0.450
  0.500
  0.540
  0.580
  0.620
  0.660
  0.700
  0.740
  0.780
  0.810
  0.840
  0.880
  0.910
  0.940
  0.970
  1.000
  1.020
  1.050
  1.070
  1.100
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388
  0.388

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  27
  53
  54
  56
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  70
  78
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  97
  101
  106
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  171
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  24
  21
  21
  21
  22
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
Funds from operations, $m
  -4
  74
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  86
  89
  92
  95
  96
  100
  104
  108
  112
  116
  121
  126
  132
  137
  143
  150
  156
  164
  171
  179
  187
  196
  205
  214
Change in working capital, $m
  -44
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
Cash from operations, $m
  40
  74
  75
  77
  79
  81
  83
  86
  89
  91
  95
  96
  100
  103
  107
  112
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
  214
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
New CAPEX, $m
  -19
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -7
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -50
  -52
Free cash flow, $m
  33
  59
  60
  61
  63
  64
  66
  67
  69
  72
  74
  74
  77
  80
  83
  86
  89
  93
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  119
  124
  129
  135
  141
  147
  154
  161
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  6
  7
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -43
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -43
  6
  7
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  44
  46
  48
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -13
  66
  68
  70
  72
  75
  77
  80
  83
  86
  90
  91
  95
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  122
  128
  133
  139
  146
  152
  159
  167
  174
  183
  191
  200
  210
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -13
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  134
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  195
  63
  64
  66
  68
  70
  72
  74
  77
  80
  80
  83
  87
  90
  94
  98
  102
  106
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  171
  179
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  187
  58
  56
  54
  53
  51
  49
  47
  44
  42
  38
  36
  33
  30
  28
  25
  22
  19
  17
  15
  12
  10
  9
  7
  6
  4
  3
  3
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Pegasystems Inc. develops, markets, licenses and supports software applications for marketing, sales and onboarding, and customer service needs. The Company also offers software applications built on the Pega platform. Its software is designed to assist clients in building, deploying and evolving enterprise applications. Its applications and platform intersect with and encompass several traditional software markets, including Customer Relationship Management (CRM); Business Process Management (BPM); Business Rules Management Systems (BRMS); Dynamic Case Management (DCM); Decision Management, which includes Predictive and Adaptive analytics, and the Vertical Specific Software (VSS) market of industry solutions and packaged applications. It provides implementation, consulting, training, technical support and hosting services to facilitate the use of its software. The Company offers its services to financial, healthcare, insurance, manufacturing, life sciences and other markets.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Pegasystems (PEGA)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 147.5
Price to Sales 5.3
Price to Book 11.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 99.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 189.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 9.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 72.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 25.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.3%
Return On Total Capital 8.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
Return On Equity 8.2%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.5%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 68.1%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 68.5%
EBITDA Margin 7.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.7%
Operating Margin 4.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 4.7%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.2%
Net Profit Margin 3.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.8%
Effective Tax Rate 22.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.7%
Payout Ratio 33.3%

PEGA stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PEGA stock intrinsic value calculation we used $750 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Pegasystems. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Pegasystems. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PEGA stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PEGA is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Pegasystems, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Pegasystems.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PEGA stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 90.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PEGA stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Pegasystems.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Pegasystems. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PEGA stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PEGA are equal to 9.7%.

Life of production assets of 5.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Pegasystems operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PEGA is equal to 0.5%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $336 million for Pegasystems - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 77.625 million for Pegasystems is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Pegasystems at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $4.0 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Why Pegasystems Stock Gained 31% in 2017   [Jan-17-18 07:53AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Pegasystems to Present at the Needham Growth Conference   [Jan-11-18 09:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ 3 Top Value Stocks to Buy in January   [Jan-08-18 11:32AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Pegasystems Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Dec-15-17 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ At $51.75, Is It Time To Buy Pegasystems Inc (PEGA)?   [Nov-15-17 04:27PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Pegasystems' Sales Growth Stalls   [Nov-09-17 05:39PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Pegasystems Inc. Stock Dropped Today   [01:25PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Pegasystems reports 3Q loss   [Nov-08-17 04:17PM  Associated Press]
▶ Pegasystems Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [02:10PM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Should You Sell Pegasystems Inc (PEGA) At $57.65?   [Oct-02-17 12:17PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Pegasystems Announces Quarterly Cash Dividend   [Sep-15-17 04:30PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Pegasystems, Inc. : August 28, 2017   [Aug-28-17 06:07PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 5 High-Flying Stocks You Should Buy Anyway   [Aug-14-17 03:12PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Pegasystems Inc. Stock Fell 11% Today   [Aug-10-17 04:52PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Pegasystems posts 2Q profit   [12:03AM  Associated Press]
▶ Pegasystems Announces Second Quarter 2017 Financial Results   [Aug-09-17 04:02PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Pegasystems, Inc. : August 1, 2017   [Aug-01-17 05:06PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Pegasystems, Inc. : July 13, 2017   [Jul-13-17 04:27PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Is This Soaring Software Stock Setting Up To Keep Climbing?   [10:54AM  Investor's Business Daily]
Financial statements of PEGA
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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