Intrinsic value of Pattern Energy Group - PEGI

Previous Close

$21.38

  Intrinsic Value

$2.52

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-88%

Previous close

$21.38

 
Intrinsic value

$2.52

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of PEGI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.27
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  354
  361
  369
  379
  390
  401
  414
  428
  444
  460
  478
  497
  517
  538
  561
  585
  611
  638
  667
  697
  729
  763
  799
  836
  876
  918
  961
  1,008
  1,056
  1,107
  1,161
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  329
  336
  345
  354
  365
  377
  390
  404
  419
  435
  452
  470
  490
  511
  533
  556
  581
  607
  634
  664
  694
  727
  761
  797
  835
  875
  917
  961
  1,008
  1,057
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  354
  329
  336
  345
  354
  365
  377
  390
  404
  419
  435
  452
  470
  490
  511
  533
  556
  581
  607
  634
  664
  694
  727
  761
  797
  835
  875
  917
  961
  1,008
  1,057
Operating income, $m
  0
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  39
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  48
  51
  53
  55
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
EBITDA, $m
  174
  210
  215
  221
  227
  234
  241
  249
  258
  268
  278
  289
  301
  313
  327
  341
  356
  371
  388
  406
  424
  444
  465
  487
  510
  534
  560
  587
  615
  645
  676
Interest expense (income), $m
  70
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
  78
  82
  87
  91
  97
  102
  108
  115
  122
  129
  137
  145
  154
  163
  173
  183
  194
  205
  217
  230
  243
  257
  272
  287
  304
Earnings before tax, $m
  -44
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -71
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -107
  -114
  -122
  -130
  -138
  -147
  -156
  -166
  -177
  -188
  -199
Tax expense, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -17
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -71
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -107
  -114
  -122
  -130
  -138
  -147
  -156
  -166
  -177
  -188
  -199

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  84
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,753
  3,761
  3,848
  3,947
  4,058
  4,181
  4,316
  4,463
  4,622
  4,793
  4,977
  5,174
  5,384
  5,607
  5,845
  6,097
  6,364
  6,647
  6,946
  7,262
  7,596
  7,948
  8,319
  8,711
  9,123
  9,558
  10,015
  10,496
  11,003
  11,536
  12,096
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,669
  3,761
  3,848
  3,947
  4,058
  4,181
  4,316
  4,463
  4,622
  4,793
  4,977
  5,174
  5,384
  5,607
  5,845
  6,097
  6,364
  6,647
  6,946
  7,262
  7,596
  7,948
  8,319
  8,711
  9,123
  9,558
  10,015
  10,496
  11,003
  11,536
  12,096
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
Average production assets, $m
  3,310
  3,376
  3,454
  3,543
  3,642
  3,753
  3,874
  4,006
  4,148
  4,302
  4,467
  4,644
  4,833
  5,033
  5,247
  5,473
  5,713
  5,967
  6,235
  6,519
  6,818
  7,134
  7,468
  7,819
  8,189
  8,579
  8,989
  9,421
  9,876
  10,354
  10,857
Working capital, $m
  -149
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
Total debt, $m
  1,564
  1,548
  1,612
  1,684
  1,765
  1,855
  1,954
  2,061
  2,177
  2,303
  2,437
  2,581
  2,735
  2,898
  3,072
  3,256
  3,451
  3,658
  3,877
  4,108
  4,352
  4,609
  4,881
  5,167
  5,468
  5,786
  6,120
  6,472
  6,842
  7,231
  7,641
Total liabilities, $m
  2,765
  2,749
  2,813
  2,885
  2,966
  3,056
  3,155
  3,262
  3,378
  3,504
  3,638
  3,782
  3,936
  4,099
  4,273
  4,457
  4,652
  4,859
  5,078
  5,309
  5,553
  5,810
  6,082
  6,368
  6,669
  6,987
  7,321
  7,673
  8,043
  8,432
  8,842
Total equity, $m
  988
  1,012
  1,035
  1,062
  1,092
  1,125
  1,161
  1,200
  1,243
  1,289
  1,339
  1,392
  1,448
  1,508
  1,572
  1,640
  1,712
  1,788
  1,869
  1,954
  2,043
  2,138
  2,238
  2,343
  2,454
  2,571
  2,694
  2,823
  2,960
  3,103
  3,254
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,753
  3,761
  3,848
  3,947
  4,058
  4,181
  4,316
  4,462
  4,621
  4,793
  4,977
  5,174
  5,384
  5,607
  5,845
  6,097
  6,364
  6,647
  6,947
  7,263
  7,596
  7,948
  8,320
  8,711
  9,123
  9,558
  10,015
  10,496
  11,003
  11,535
  12,096
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.583
  1.530
  1.560
  1.590
  1.620
  1.650
  1.680
  1.720
  1.750
  1.790
  1.820
  1.850
  1.890
  1.920
  1.950
  1.990
  2.020
  2.050
  2.070
  2.100
  2.130
  2.160
  2.180
  2.200
  2.230
  2.250
  2.270
  2.290
  2.310
  2.330
  2.350
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -17
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -44
  -47
  -50
  -54
  -58
  -62
  -66
  -71
  -76
  -82
  -88
  -94
  -100
  -107
  -114
  -122
  -130
  -138
  -147
  -156
  -166
  -177
  -188
  -199
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  174
  178
  182
  186
  192
  198
  204
  211
  218
  226
  235
  244
  254
  265
  276
  288
  301
  314
  328
  343
  359
  375
  393
  412
  431
  452
  473
  496
  520
  545
  571
Funds from operations, $m
  219
  148
  150
  153
  156
  159
  163
  167
  172
  176
  181
  187
  192
  199
  205
  212
  219
  227
  235
  243
  252
  261
  271
  282
  293
  304
  317
  330
  343
  357
  372
Change in working capital, $m
  55
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
Cash from operations, $m
  164
  148
  150
  153
  156
  160
  163
  167
  172
  177
  182
  187
  193
  199
  205
  212
  219
  227
  235
  243
  252
  262
  272
  282
  293
  305
  317
  330
  344
  358
  373
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -174
  -178
  -182
  -186
  -192
  -198
  -204
  -211
  -218
  -226
  -235
  -244
  -254
  -265
  -276
  -288
  -301
  -314
  -328
  -343
  -359
  -375
  -393
  -412
  -431
  -452
  -473
  -496
  -520
  -545
New CAPEX, $m
  -33
  -66
  -78
  -89
  -100
  -110
  -121
  -132
  -143
  -154
  -165
  -177
  -188
  -201
  -213
  -226
  -240
  -254
  -268
  -284
  -300
  -316
  -333
  -351
  -370
  -390
  -410
  -432
  -455
  -478
  -503
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -124
  -240
  -256
  -271
  -286
  -302
  -319
  -336
  -354
  -372
  -391
  -412
  -432
  -455
  -478
  -502
  -528
  -555
  -582
  -612
  -643
  -675
  -708
  -744
  -782
  -821
  -862
  -905
  -951
  -998
  -1,048
Free cash flow, $m
  40
  -92
  -105
  -118
  -130
  -142
  -155
  -168
  -182
  -196
  -210
  -225
  -240
  -256
  -273
  -290
  -309
  -328
  -348
  -368
  -390
  -413
  -437
  -462
  -488
  -516
  -545
  -575
  -607
  -640
  -675
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -223
  68
  63
  72
  81
  90
  99
  107
  116
  125
  134
  144
  153
  163
  174
  184
  195
  207
  219
  231
  244
  257
  271
  286
  301
  317
  334
  352
  370
  390
  410
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  285
  53
  55
  60
  66
  71
  77
  83
  89
  96
  103
  111
  118
  127
  135
  144
  154
  164
  174
  185
  197
  209
  222
  235
  249
  264
  279
  296
  313
  331
  350
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  43
  121
  118
  132
  147
  161
  176
  190
  205
  221
  237
  255
  271
  290
  309
  328
  349
  371
  393
  416
  441
  466
  493
  521
  550
  581
  613
  648
  683
  721
  760
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  83
  30
  13
  15
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  50
  53
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  73
  76
  80
  84
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -156
  -53
  -55
  -60
  -66
  -71
  -77
  -83
  -89
  -96
  -103
  -111
  -118
  -127
  -135
  -144
  -154
  -164
  -174
  -185
  -197
  -209
  -222
  -235
  -249
  -264
  -279
  -296
  -313
  -331
  -350
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -24
  -42
  -45
  -49
  -53
  -57
  -61
  -65
  -70
  -75
  -81
  -87
  -93
  -99
  -106
  -113
  -121
  -129
  -137
  -146
  -156
  -166
  -176
  -187
  -198
  -211
  -223
  -237
  -251
  -266
Discount rate, %
 
  9.90
  10.40
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.64
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.13
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
  21.61
  22.69
  23.83
  25.02
  26.27
  27.58
  28.96
  30.41
  31.93
  33.52
  35.20
  36.96
  38.81
  40.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -22
  -34
  -33
  -32
  -30
  -28
  -25
  -23
  -21
  -18
  -16
  -13
  -11
  -9
  -7
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  97.5
  95.1
  92.5
  89.9
  87.3
  84.5
  81.8
  79.0
  76.2
  73.5
  70.7
  68.0
  65.3
  62.7
  60.1
  57.5
  55.1
  52.7
  50.3
  48.0
  45.8
  43.7
  41.6
  39.7
  37.7
  35.9
  34.1
  32.4
  30.8
  29.3

Pattern Energy Group Inc. is an independent power company focused on owning and operating power projects. The Company holds interests in over 18 wind power projects located in the United States, Canada and Chile with total capacity of over 2,644 megawatts (MW). Each of its projects has contracted to sell its output pursuant to a power sale agreement. The Company sells its electricity and environmental attributes, including renewable energy credits (RECs), to local utilities under long-term and fixed-price power purchase agreements (PPAs). The Company's operating projects are Gulf Wind, Texas; Hatchet Ridge, California; St. Joseph, Manitoba; Spring Valley, Nevada; Santa Isabel, Puerto Rico; Ocotillo, California; South Kent, Ontario; El Arrayan, Chile; Panhandle 1, Texas; Panhandle 2, Texas; Grand, Ontario; Post Rock, Kansas; Lost Creek, Missouri; K2, Ontario; Logan's Gap, Texas, Amazon Wind Farm Fowler Ridge, Indiana, and Armow Wind power facility in Ontario, Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Pattern Energy Group (PEGI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -109.9
Price to Sales 5.3
Price to Book 1.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.4
Price to Free Cash Flow 14.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -91.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -23.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 135.1%
Total Debt to Equity 158.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Return On Total Capital -0.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.2%
Return On Equity -1.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -4%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.5%
EBITDA Margin 56.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.7%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -12.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.9%
Net Profit Margin -4.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.8%
Effective Tax Rate -18.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -12%
Payout Ratio -705.9%

PEGI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PEGI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $354 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Pattern Energy Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Pattern Energy Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PEGI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.9%, whose default value for PEGI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Pattern Energy Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Pattern Energy Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PEGI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PEGI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.2% for Pattern Energy Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Pattern Energy Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PEGI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PEGI are equal to 935%.

Life of production assets of 19 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Pattern Energy Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PEGI is equal to -1.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $988 million for Pattern Energy Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 98.185 million for Pattern Energy Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Pattern Energy Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.1 billion.

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Financial statements of PEGI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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