Intrinsic value of Pattern Energy Group - PEGI

Previous Close

$24.75

  Intrinsic Value

$2.86

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-88%

  Value-price divergence*

+19%

Previous close

$24.75

 
Intrinsic value

$2.86

 
Up/down potential

-88%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+19%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PEGI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  7.27
  14.80
  13.82
  12.94
  12.14
  11.43
  10.79
  10.21
  9.69
  9.22
  8.80
  8.42
  8.08
  7.77
  7.49
  7.24
  7.02
  6.82
  6.63
  6.47
  6.32
  6.19
  6.07
  5.97
  5.87
  5.78
  5.70
  5.63
  5.57
  5.51
  5.46
Revenue, $m
  354
  406
  463
  522
  586
  653
  723
  797
  874
  955
  1,039
  1,126
  1,217
  1,312
  1,410
  1,512
  1,618
  1,729
  1,843
  1,963
  2,087
  2,216
  2,350
  2,491
  2,637
  2,789
  2,948
  3,114
  3,288
  3,469
  3,659
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  370
  421
  475
  533
  594
  658
  725
  796
  869
  945
  1,025
  1,108
  1,194
  1,283
  1,376
  1,473
  1,573
  1,677
  1,786
  1,899
  2,016
  2,139
  2,266
  2,399
  2,538
  2,683
  2,834
  2,992
  3,157
  3,329
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  354
  370
  421
  475
  533
  594
  658
  725
  796
  869
  945
  1,025
  1,108
  1,194
  1,283
  1,376
  1,473
  1,573
  1,677
  1,786
  1,899
  2,016
  2,139
  2,266
  2,399
  2,538
  2,683
  2,834
  2,992
  3,157
  3,329
Operating income, $m
  0
  37
  42
  47
  53
  59
  65
  72
  79
  86
  93
  101
  110
  118
  127
  136
  146
  156
  166
  177
  188
  199
  212
  224
  237
  251
  265
  280
  296
  312
  329
EBITDA, $m
  174
  237
  269
  304
  341
  380
  421
  464
  509
  556
  605
  656
  709
  764
  821
  880
  942
  1,006
  1,073
  1,142
  1,215
  1,290
  1,368
  1,450
  1,535
  1,624
  1,716
  1,813
  1,914
  2,019
  2,130
Interest expense (income), $m
  70
  62
  80
  97
  117
  137
  158
  181
  204
  229
  255
  282
  310
  339
  369
  401
  433
  467
  502
  539
  577
  617
  658
  701
  746
  793
  842
  892
  946
  1,001
  1,059
Earnings before tax, $m
  -44
  -26
  -38
  -50
  -64
  -78
  -93
  -109
  -126
  -143
  -161
  -180
  -200
  -221
  -242
  -264
  -288
  -312
  -336
  -362
  -389
  -417
  -447
  -477
  -509
  -542
  -576
  -612
  -650
  -689
  -730
Tax expense, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -17
  -26
  -38
  -50
  -64
  -78
  -93
  -109
  -126
  -143
  -161
  -180
  -200
  -221
  -242
  -264
  -288
  -312
  -336
  -362
  -389
  -417
  -447
  -477
  -509
  -542
  -576
  -612
  -650
  -689
  -730

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  84
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,753
  4,233
  4,818
  5,442
  6,103
  6,800
  7,534
  8,303
  9,107
  9,946
  10,821
  11,732
  12,680
  13,665
  14,688
  15,752
  16,857
  18,006
  19,201
  20,443
  21,736
  23,082
  24,483
  25,944
  27,466
  29,055
  30,712
  32,442
  34,249
  36,137
  38,110
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,669
  4,233
  4,818
  5,442
  6,103
  6,800
  7,534
  8,303
  9,107
  9,946
  10,821
  11,732
  12,680
  13,665
  14,688
  15,752
  16,857
  18,006
  19,201
  20,443
  21,736
  23,082
  24,483
  25,944
  27,466
  29,055
  30,712
  32,442
  34,249
  36,137
  38,110
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
  0.096
Average production assets, $m
  3,310
  3,800
  4,325
  4,884
  5,478
  6,104
  6,762
  7,452
  8,174
  8,928
  9,713
  10,531
  11,381
  12,265
  13,184
  14,139
  15,131
  16,162
  17,235
  18,350
  19,510
  20,718
  21,976
  23,287
  24,654
  26,079
  27,567
  29,120
  30,742
  32,436
  34,208
Working capital, $m
  -149
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
Total debt, $m
  1,564
  1,894
  2,321
  2,777
  3,260
  3,770
  4,306
  4,868
  5,456
  6,070
  6,709
  7,375
  8,068
  8,788
  9,536
  10,314
  11,122
  11,962
  12,835
  13,743
  14,688
  15,672
  16,696
  17,764
  18,877
  20,038
  21,249
  22,514
  23,835
  25,215
  26,658
Total liabilities, $m
  2,765
  3,095
  3,522
  3,978
  4,461
  4,971
  5,507
  6,069
  6,657
  7,271
  7,910
  8,576
  9,269
  9,989
  10,737
  11,515
  12,323
  13,163
  14,036
  14,944
  15,889
  16,873
  17,897
  18,965
  20,078
  21,239
  22,450
  23,715
  25,036
  26,416
  27,859
Total equity, $m
  988
  1,139
  1,296
  1,464
  1,642
  1,829
  2,027
  2,233
  2,450
  2,676
  2,911
  3,156
  3,411
  3,676
  3,951
  4,237
  4,535
  4,844
  5,165
  5,499
  5,847
  6,209
  6,586
  6,979
  7,388
  7,816
  8,261
  8,727
  9,213
  9,721
  10,252
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,753
  4,234
  4,818
  5,442
  6,103
  6,800
  7,534
  8,302
  9,107
  9,947
  10,821
  11,732
  12,680
  13,665
  14,688
  15,752
  16,858
  18,007
  19,201
  20,443
  21,736
  23,082
  24,483
  25,944
  27,466
  29,055
  30,711
  32,442
  34,249
  36,137
  38,111
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.583
  1.660
  1.790
  1.900
  1.990
  2.060
  2.120
  2.180
  2.230
  2.270
  2.300
  2.340
  2.370
  2.390
  2.410
  2.430
  2.450
  2.470
  2.480
  2.500
  2.510
  2.520
  2.540
  2.550
  2.550
  2.560
  2.570
  2.580
  2.590
  2.590
  2.600
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269
  0.269

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -17
  -26
  -38
  -50
  -64
  -78
  -93
  -109
  -126
  -143
  -161
  -180
  -200
  -221
  -242
  -264
  -288
  -312
  -336
  -362
  -389
  -417
  -447
  -477
  -509
  -542
  -576
  -612
  -650
  -689
  -730
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  174
  200
  228
  257
  288
  321
  356
  392
  430
  470
  511
  554
  599
  646
  694
  744
  796
  851
  907
  966
  1,027
  1,090
  1,157
  1,226
  1,298
  1,373
  1,451
  1,533
  1,618
  1,707
  1,800
Funds from operations, $m
  219
  174
  190
  207
  224
  243
  263
  283
  304
  327
  350
  374
  399
  425
  452
  480
  509
  539
  571
  603
  637
  673
  710
  749
  789
  831
  875
  920
  968
  1,018
  1,071
Change in working capital, $m
  55
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
Cash from operations, $m
  164
  175
  190
  207
  225
  244
  263
  284
  305
  328
  351
  375
  400
  426
  453
  481
  510
  540
  572
  605
  639
  674
  711
  750
  790
  832
  876
  922
  970
  1,020
  1,073
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -174
  -200
  -228
  -257
  -288
  -321
  -356
  -392
  -430
  -470
  -511
  -554
  -599
  -646
  -694
  -744
  -796
  -851
  -907
  -966
  -1,027
  -1,090
  -1,157
  -1,226
  -1,298
  -1,373
  -1,451
  -1,533
  -1,618
  -1,707
New CAPEX, $m
  -33
  -490
  -525
  -560
  -593
  -626
  -658
  -690
  -722
  -754
  -785
  -818
  -850
  -884
  -919
  -955
  -992
  -1,031
  -1,072
  -1,115
  -1,160
  -1,208
  -1,258
  -1,311
  -1,367
  -1,425
  -1,487
  -1,553
  -1,622
  -1,695
  -1,772
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -124
  -664
  -725
  -788
  -850
  -914
  -979
  -1,046
  -1,114
  -1,184
  -1,255
  -1,329
  -1,404
  -1,483
  -1,565
  -1,649
  -1,736
  -1,827
  -1,923
  -2,022
  -2,126
  -2,235
  -2,348
  -2,468
  -2,593
  -2,723
  -2,860
  -3,004
  -3,155
  -3,313
  -3,479
Free cash flow, $m
  40
  -489
  -535
  -580
  -625
  -671
  -716
  -762
  -809
  -856
  -905
  -954
  -1,005
  -1,057
  -1,112
  -1,168
  -1,226
  -1,287
  -1,351
  -1,418
  -1,487
  -1,560
  -1,637
  -1,717
  -1,802
  -1,891
  -1,984
  -2,082
  -2,184
  -2,292
  -2,406
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -223
  414
  428
  456
  483
  510
  536
  562
  588
  614
  640
  666
  693
  720
  748
  778
  808
  840
  873
  908
  945
  984
  1,025
  1,068
  1,113
  1,161
  1,211
  1,265
  1,321
  1,380
  1,443
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  176
  195
  218
  242
  266
  291
  316
  342
  369
  397
  425
  455
  486
  518
  551
  585
  621
  658
  697
  737
  779
  824
  870
  918
  969
  1,022
  1,078
  1,136
  1,197
  1,261
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  43
  590
  623
  674
  725
  776
  827
  878
  930
  983
  1,037
  1,091
  1,148
  1,206
  1,266
  1,329
  1,393
  1,461
  1,531
  1,605
  1,682
  1,763
  1,849
  1,938
  2,031
  2,130
  2,233
  2,343
  2,457
  2,577
  2,704
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  83
  101
  88
  94
  100
  105
  111
  116
  121
  127
  132
  137
  143
  148
  154
  160
  167
  173
  180
  187
  195
  203
  211
  220
  229
  239
  250
  261
  272
  285
  297
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -156
  -176
  -195
  -218
  -242
  -266
  -291
  -316
  -342
  -369
  -397
  -425
  -455
  -486
  -518
  -551
  -585
  -621
  -658
  -697
  -737
  -779
  -824
  -870
  -918
  -969
  -1,022
  -1,078
  -1,136
  -1,197
  -1,261
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -75
  -107
  -124
  -142
  -161
  -180
  -200
  -221
  -243
  -265
  -288
  -312
  -337
  -363
  -390
  -418
  -447
  -478
  -509
  -542
  -577
  -612
  -650
  -689
  -730
  -772
  -817
  -863
  -912
  -963
Discount rate, %
 
  9.90
  10.40
  10.91
  11.46
  12.03
  12.64
  13.27
  13.93
  14.63
  15.36
  16.13
  16.93
  17.78
  18.67
  19.60
  20.58
  21.61
  22.69
  23.83
  25.02
  26.27
  27.58
  28.96
  30.41
  31.93
  33.52
  35.20
  36.96
  38.81
  40.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -69
  -88
  -91
  -92
  -91
  -88
  -84
  -78
  -71
  -63
  -56
  -48
  -40
  -33
  -27
  -21
  -16
  -12
  -9
  -6
  -4
  -3
  -2
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  92.4
  85.6
  79.4
  73.8
  68.6
  63.9
  59.6
  55.7
  52.1
  48.7
  45.6
  42.8
  40.2
  37.7
  35.4
  33.3
  31.3
  29.5
  27.7
  26.1
  24.6
  23.2
  21.8
  20.6
  19.4
  18.3
  17.3
  16.3
  15.4
  14.5

Pattern Energy Group Inc. operates as an independent power company that owns and operates power projects in the United States, Canada, and Chile. As of October 18, 2016, the company had a portfolio of 18 wind power projects with a total owned capacity of 2,644 MW. It sells electricity and renewable energy credits primarily to local utilities and local liquid independent system organizations markets. The company was founded in 2012 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Pattern Energy Group (PEGI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -127.3
Price to Sales 6.1
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 16.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 7.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -91.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -23.3%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 0
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 135.1%
Total Debt to Equity 158.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.7%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.3%
Return On Total Capital -0.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.2%
Return On Equity -1.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -4%
Asset Turnover 0.1
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 14.4%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.5%
EBITDA Margin 56.5%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 49.7%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.8%
Pre-Tax Margin -12.4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -13.9%
Net Profit Margin -4.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -8.8%
Effective Tax Rate -18.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -12%
Payout Ratio -705.9%

PEGI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PEGI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $354 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Pattern Energy Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Pattern Energy Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PEGI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 14.8% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 9.9%, whose default value for PEGI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Pattern Energy Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Pattern Energy Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PEGI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 91%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PEGI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.2% for Pattern Energy Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Pattern Energy Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PEGI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PEGI are equal to 935%.

Life of production assets of 19 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Pattern Energy Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PEGI is equal to -1.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $988 million for Pattern Energy Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 86.345 million for Pattern Energy Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Pattern Energy Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.1 billion.

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Stock chart of PEGI Financial statements of PEGI Annual reports of PEGI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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