Intrinsic value of Penn National Gaming - PENN

Previous Close

$21.66

  Intrinsic Value

$0.04

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-100%

  Value-price divergence*

+167%

Previous close

$21.66

 
Intrinsic value

$0.04

 
Up/down potential

-100%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+167%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PENN stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.8

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  6.91
  2.60
  2.84
  3.06
  3.25
  3.43
  3.58
  3.72
  3.85
  3.97
  4.07
  4.16
  4.25
  4.32
  4.39
  4.45
  4.51
  4.56
  4.60
  4.64
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.76
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.89
Revenue, $m
  3,034
  3,113
  3,201
  3,299
  3,406
  3,523
  3,649
  3,785
  3,931
  4,087
  4,253
  4,430
  4,618
  4,818
  5,030
  5,253
  5,490
  5,740
  6,004
  6,283
  6,577
  6,886
  7,213
  7,556
  7,918
  8,299
  8,699
  9,121
  9,564
  10,030
  10,520
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,905
  1,959
  2,019
  2,085
  2,156
  2,233
  2,317
  2,406
  2,501
  2,603
  2,711
  2,827
  2,949
  3,078
  3,215
  3,360
  3,513
  3,675
  3,845
  4,025
  4,214
  4,414
  4,624
  4,846
  5,079
  5,324
  5,582
  5,853
  6,139
  6,438
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  665
  682
  699
  716
  734
  753
  771
  791
  811
  831
  852
  873
  895
  917
  940
  963
  988
  1,012
  1,038
  1,063
  1,090
  1,117
  1,145
  1,174
  1,203
  1,233
  1,264
  1,296
  1,328
  1,361
Total operating expenses, $m
  2,491
  2,570
  2,641
  2,718
  2,801
  2,890
  2,986
  3,088
  3,197
  3,312
  3,434
  3,563
  3,700
  3,844
  3,995
  4,155
  4,323
  4,501
  4,687
  4,883
  5,088
  5,304
  5,531
  5,769
  6,020
  6,282
  6,557
  6,846
  7,149
  7,467
  7,799
Operating income, $m
  543
  543
  560
  581
  605
  633
  663
  697
  734
  775
  819
  867
  919
  975
  1,034
  1,098
  1,167
  1,240
  1,317
  1,400
  1,488
  1,582
  1,681
  1,787
  1,898
  2,017
  2,142
  2,275
  2,415
  2,564
  2,721
EBITDA, $m
  814
  821
  847
  876
  910
  948
  990
  1,036
  1,086
  1,141
  1,200
  1,264
  1,333
  1,406
  1,485
  1,569
  1,658
  1,754
  1,855
  1,963
  2,077
  2,198
  2,327
  2,463
  2,607
  2,759
  2,921
  3,091
  3,271
  3,461
  3,662
Interest expense (income), $m
  453
  439
  357
  368
  381
  395
  410
  427
  445
  464
  484
  506
  530
  554
  580
  608
  638
  669
  702
  736
  773
  811
  852
  895
  940
  987
  1,037
  1,090
  1,145
  1,204
  1,265
Earnings before tax, $m
  121
  104
  204
  213
  224
  238
  253
  270
  290
  311
  335
  361
  390
  421
  454
  490
  529
  571
  616
  664
  716
  771
  829
  892
  958
  1,029
  1,105
  1,185
  1,270
  1,360
  1,456
Tax expense, $m
  12
  28
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  73
  78
  84
  90
  98
  105
  114
  123
  132
  143
  154
  166
  179
  193
  208
  224
  241
  259
  278
  298
  320
  343
  367
  393
Net income, $m
  109
  76
  149
  156
  164
  173
  185
  197
  211
  227
  245
  264
  284
  307
  331
  358
  386
  417
  450
  485
  522
  562
  605
  651
  700
  751
  806
  865
  927
  993
  1,063

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  230
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,974
  5,103
  5,248
  5,408
  5,584
  5,775
  5,982
  6,205
  6,444
  6,700
  6,973
  7,263
  7,571
  7,899
  8,245
  8,612
  9,000
  9,410
  9,843
  10,300
  10,781
  11,289
  11,824
  12,387
  12,980
  13,604
  14,261
  14,952
  15,679
  16,443
  17,247
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  4,744
  5,103
  5,248
  5,408
  5,584
  5,775
  5,982
  6,205
  6,444
  6,700
  6,973
  7,263
  7,571
  7,899
  8,245
  8,612
  9,000
  9,410
  9,843
  10,300
  10,781
  11,289
  11,824
  12,387
  12,980
  13,604
  14,261
  14,952
  15,679
  16,443
  17,247
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.640
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
  0.610
Average production assets, $m
  3,313
  3,399
  3,496
  3,603
  3,720
  3,847
  3,985
  4,133
  4,293
  4,463
  4,645
  4,838
  5,043
  5,261
  5,492
  5,737
  5,995
  6,268
  6,557
  6,861
  7,182
  7,520
  7,876
  8,251
  8,646
  9,062
  9,500
  9,960
  10,444
  10,953
  11,488
Working capital, $m
  -137
  -230
  -237
  -244
  -252
  -261
  -270
  -280
  -291
  -302
  -315
  -328
  -342
  -357
  -372
  -389
  -406
  -425
  -444
  -465
  -487
  -510
  -534
  -559
  -586
  -614
  -644
  -675
  -708
  -742
  -779
Total debt, $m
  4,930
  4,006
  4,136
  4,281
  4,439
  4,611
  4,797
  4,998
  5,213
  5,443
  5,688
  5,950
  6,227
  6,522
  6,834
  7,164
  7,513
  7,882
  8,272
  8,683
  9,116
  9,573
  10,055
  10,561
  11,095
  11,657
  12,248
  12,870
  13,524
  14,212
  14,935
Total liabilities, $m
  5,518
  4,593
  4,723
  4,868
  5,026
  5,198
  5,384
  5,585
  5,800
  6,030
  6,275
  6,537
  6,814
  7,109
  7,421
  7,751
  8,100
  8,469
  8,859
  9,270
  9,703
  10,160
  10,642
  11,148
  11,682
  12,244
  12,835
  13,457
  14,111
  14,799
  15,522
Total equity, $m
  -543
  510
  525
  541
  558
  578
  598
  621
  644
  670
  697
  726
  757
  790
  825
  861
  900
  941
  984
  1,030
  1,078
  1,129
  1,182
  1,239
  1,298
  1,360
  1,426
  1,495
  1,568
  1,644
  1,725
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,975
  5,103
  5,248
  5,409
  5,584
  5,776
  5,982
  6,206
  6,444
  6,700
  6,972
  7,263
  7,571
  7,899
  8,246
  8,612
  9,000
  9,410
  9,843
  10,300
  10,781
  11,289
  11,824
  12,387
  12,980
  13,604
  14,261
  14,952
  15,679
  16,443
  17,247
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -9.079
  7.850
  7.880
  7.910
  7.950
  7.980
  8.020
  8.050
  8.090
  8.120
  8.160
  8.190
  8.220
  8.260
  8.290
  8.320
  8.350
  8.380
  8.400
  8.430
  8.460
  8.480
  8.500
  8.530
  8.550
  8.570
  8.590
  8.610
  8.630
  8.640
  8.660
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.163
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  109
  76
  149
  156
  164
  173
  185
  197
  211
  227
  245
  264
  284
  307
  331
  358
  386
  417
  450
  485
  522
  562
  605
  651
  700
  751
  806
  865
  927
  993
  1,063
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  271
  279
  287
  295
  305
  315
  327
  339
  352
  366
  381
  397
  413
  431
  450
  470
  491
  514
  537
  562
  589
  616
  646
  676
  709
  743
  779
  816
  856
  898
  942
Funds from operations, $m
  396
  354
  435
  451
  469
  489
  511
  536
  563
  593
  625
  660
  698
  738
  782
  828
  878
  931
  987
  1,047
  1,111
  1,179
  1,251
  1,327
  1,408
  1,494
  1,585
  1,681
  1,783
  1,891
  2,004
Change in working capital, $m
  -9
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
Cash from operations, $m
  405
  360
  442
  458
  477
  497
  521
  546
  574
  605
  638
  673
  712
  753
  797
  845
  895
  949
  1,007
  1,068
  1,133
  1,202
  1,275
  1,353
  1,435
  1,522
  1,615
  1,712
  1,816
  1,925
  2,041
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -272
  -279
  -287
  -295
  -305
  -315
  -327
  -339
  -352
  -366
  -381
  -397
  -413
  -431
  -450
  -470
  -491
  -514
  -537
  -562
  -589
  -616
  -646
  -676
  -709
  -743
  -779
  -816
  -856
  -898
New CAPEX, $m
  -100
  -86
  -97
  -107
  -117
  -127
  -138
  -148
  -159
  -170
  -182
  -193
  -205
  -218
  -231
  -244
  -258
  -273
  -288
  -304
  -321
  -338
  -356
  -375
  -395
  -416
  -437
  -460
  -484
  -509
  -535
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -79
  -358
  -376
  -394
  -412
  -432
  -453
  -475
  -498
  -522
  -548
  -574
  -602
  -631
  -662
  -694
  -728
  -764
  -802
  -841
  -883
  -927
  -972
  -1,021
  -1,071
  -1,125
  -1,180
  -1,239
  -1,300
  -1,365
  -1,433
Free cash flow, $m
  326
  2
  67
  65
  64
  65
  67
  71
  76
  82
  90
  99
  110
  122
  135
  150
  166
  185
  204
  226
  250
  275
  302
  332
  364
  398
  434
  473
  515
  560
  608
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -349
  -924
  130
  144
  158
  172
  186
  201
  215
  230
  245
  261
  278
  295
  312
  330
  349
  369
  390
  411
  433
  457
  481
  507
  534
  562
  591
  622
  654
  688
  723
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  19
  978
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -333
  54
  130
  144
  158
  172
  186
  201
  215
  230
  245
  261
  278
  295
  312
  330
  349
  369
  390
  411
  433
  457
  481
  507
  534
  562
  591
  622
  654
  688
  723
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -8
  56
  197
  209
  222
  237
  254
  272
  291
  313
  336
  360
  387
  416
  447
  480
  516
  554
  594
  637
  683
  732
  784
  839
  897
  960
  1,025
  1,095
  1,169
  1,248
  1,331
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -135
  -1,053
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -66
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -998
  183
  193
  205
  218
  233
  249
  267
  287
  308
  331
  356
  383
  412
  444
  477
  513
  551
  591
  635
  681
  730
  783
  838
  897
  960
  1,026
  1,097
  1,171
  1,250
Discount rate, %
 
  14.80
  15.54
  16.32
  17.13
  17.99
  18.89
  19.83
  20.83
  21.87
  22.96
  24.11
  25.31
  26.58
  27.91
  29.30
  30.77
  32.31
  33.92
  35.62
  37.40
  39.27
  41.23
  43.29
  45.46
  47.73
  50.12
  52.62
  55.26
  58.02
  60.92
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -869
  137
  123
  109
  95
  82
  70
  59
  48
  39
  31
  24
  18
  13
  9
  7
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Penn National Gaming, Inc. owns and manages gaming and racing facilities, and operates video gaming terminals with a focus on slot machine entertainment. The company operates through Northeast, South/West, and Midwest segments. As of December 31, 2016, it operated 27 facilities in 17 jurisdictions, including California, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Maine, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, West Virginia, and Ontario, Canada. It operated approximately 35,000 gaming machines, 800 table games, and 4,600 hotel rooms. The company was formerly known as PNRC Corp. and changed its name to Penn National Gaming, Inc. in 1994. Penn National Gaming, Inc. was founded in 1972 and is based in Wyomissing, Pennsylvania.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Penn National Gaming (PENN)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.1
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book -3.6
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 4.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 6.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 6.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -49.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -12.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity -881.8%
Total Debt to Equity -907.9%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 10.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Return On Total Capital 2.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.2%
Return On Equity -17.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -251.3%
Asset Turnover 0.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 42.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 43%
EBITDA Margin 27.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.9%
Operating Margin 17.9%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.8%
Pre-Tax Margin 4%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
Net Profit Margin 3.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.2%
Effective Tax Rate 9.9%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 29.3%
Payout Ratio 0%

PENN stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PENN stock intrinsic value calculation we used $3034 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Penn National Gaming. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Penn National Gaming. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PENN stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 14.8%, whose default value for PENN is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Penn National Gaming, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Penn National Gaming.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PENN stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 61.2%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $649 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PENN stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 8.9% for Penn National Gaming.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Penn National Gaming. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PENN stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PENN are equal to 109.2%.

Life of production assets of 12.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Penn National Gaming operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PENN is equal to -7.4%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-543 million for Penn National Gaming - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 83.39 million for Penn National Gaming is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Penn National Gaming at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.8 billion.

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▶ Why Penn National Gaming, Inc's Shares Popped 11% Today   [Mar-23-17 05:25PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Penn National Gaming Set to Join S&P SmallCap 600   [Mar-22-17 06:10PM  PR Newswire]
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Stock chart of PENN Financial statements of PENN Annual reports of PENN
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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