Intrinsic value of Performance Food Group - PFGC

Previous Close

$31.35

  Intrinsic Value

$15.10

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-52%

Previous close

$31.35

 
Intrinsic value

$15.10

 
Up/down potential

-52%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of PFGC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 3.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.08
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  16,762
  17,097
  17,490
  17,940
  18,445
  19,004
  19,617
  20,285
  21,009
  21,788
  22,624
  23,518
  24,473
  25,489
  26,569
  27,716
  28,930
  30,216
  31,575
  33,012
  34,529
  36,129
  37,817
  39,596
  41,471
  43,445
  45,524
  47,712
  50,014
  52,436
  54,984
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  16,856
  17,242
  17,684
  18,179
  18,728
  19,330
  19,986
  20,696
  21,461
  22,282
  23,088
  24,025
  25,023
  26,083
  27,209
  28,401
  29,663
  30,998
  32,408
  33,897
  35,469
  37,126
  38,872
  40,712
  42,651
  44,691
  46,839
  49,099
  51,477
  53,978
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
Total operating expenses, $m
  16,551
  16,875
  17,262
  17,704
  18,200
  18,749
  19,352
  20,009
  20,719
  21,485
  22,306
  23,113
  24,051
  25,049
  26,110
  27,237
  28,429
  29,692
  31,028
  32,438
  33,928
  35,501
  37,159
  38,906
  40,746
  42,686
  44,727
  46,876
  49,137
  51,516
  54,018
Operating income, $m
  211
  221
  228
  236
  244
  254
  265
  277
  289
  303
  318
  405
  422
  440
  459
  479
  501
  524
  548
  573
  600
  629
  659
  691
  724
  759
  797
  836
  877
  920
  966
EBITDA, $m
  338
  366
  374
  383
  394
  406
  420
  434
  450
  467
  485
  505
  526
  548
  571
  597
  623
  651
  681
  713
  746
  782
  819
  858
  899
  943
  989
  1,037
  1,088
  1,142
  1,198
Interest expense (income), $m
  51
  54
  57
  59
  63
  66
  70
  75
  79
  85
  90
  96
  103
  110
  117
  125
  133
  142
  151
  161
  171
  182
  193
  206
  218
  232
  246
  261
  277
  293
  311
Earnings before tax, $m
  158
  167
  171
  176
  182
  188
  195
  202
  210
  218
  227
  309
  319
  330
  342
  355
  368
  382
  397
  413
  429
  447
  466
  485
  506
  528
  550
  575
  600
  627
  655
Tax expense, $m
  62
  45
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  54
  57
  59
  61
  83
  86
  89
  92
  96
  99
  103
  107
  111
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  142
  149
  155
  162
  169
  177
Net income, $m
  96
  122
  125
  129
  133
  137
  142
  147
  153
  159
  166
  225
  233
  241
  250
  259
  269
  279
  290
  301
  313
  326
  340
  354
  369
  385
  402
  419
  438
  458
  478

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,804
  3,872
  3,961
  4,062
  4,177
  4,303
  4,442
  4,594
  4,757
  4,934
  5,123
  5,326
  5,542
  5,772
  6,017
  6,276
  6,551
  6,842
  7,150
  7,476
  7,819
  8,181
  8,564
  8,967
  9,391
  9,838
  10,309
  10,804
  11,326
  11,874
  12,451
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,796
  3,872
  3,961
  4,062
  4,177
  4,303
  4,442
  4,594
  4,757
  4,934
  5,123
  5,326
  5,542
  5,772
  6,017
  6,276
  6,551
  6,842
  7,150
  7,476
  7,819
  8,181
  8,564
  8,967
  9,391
  9,838
  10,309
  10,804
  11,326
  11,874
  12,451
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.417
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
Average production assets, $m
  864
  889
  910
  933
  959
  988
  1,020
  1,055
  1,092
  1,133
  1,176
  1,223
  1,273
  1,325
  1,382
  1,441
  1,504
  1,571
  1,642
  1,717
  1,795
  1,879
  1,966
  2,059
  2,156
  2,259
  2,367
  2,481
  2,601
  2,727
  2,859
Working capital, $m
  702
  718
  735
  753
  775
  798
  824
  852
  882
  915
  950
  988
  1,028
  1,071
  1,116
  1,164
  1,215
  1,269
  1,326
  1,387
  1,450
  1,517
  1,588
  1,663
  1,742
  1,825
  1,912
  2,004
  2,101
  2,202
  2,309
Total debt, $m
  1,298
  1,347
  1,414
  1,491
  1,578
  1,673
  1,778
  1,893
  2,017
  2,150
  2,293
  2,446
  2,610
  2,784
  2,969
  3,165
  3,373
  3,593
  3,826
  4,072
  4,331
  4,605
  4,894
  5,199
  5,520
  5,858
  6,213
  6,588
  6,982
  7,397
  7,833
Total liabilities, $m
  2,879
  2,927
  2,994
  3,071
  3,158
  3,253
  3,358
  3,473
  3,597
  3,730
  3,873
  4,026
  4,190
  4,364
  4,549
  4,745
  4,953
  5,173
  5,406
  5,652
  5,911
  6,185
  6,474
  6,779
  7,100
  7,438
  7,793
  8,168
  8,562
  8,977
  9,413
Total equity, $m
  926
  945
  966
  991
  1,019
  1,050
  1,084
  1,121
  1,161
  1,204
  1,250
  1,299
  1,352
  1,408
  1,468
  1,531
  1,598
  1,670
  1,745
  1,824
  1,908
  1,996
  2,090
  2,188
  2,291
  2,401
  2,515
  2,636
  2,763
  2,897
  3,038
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,805
  3,872
  3,960
  4,062
  4,177
  4,303
  4,442
  4,594
  4,758
  4,934
  5,123
  5,325
  5,542
  5,772
  6,017
  6,276
  6,551
  6,843
  7,151
  7,476
  7,819
  8,181
  8,564
  8,967
  9,391
  9,839
  10,308
  10,804
  11,325
  11,874
  12,451
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.402
  1.430
  1.460
  1.500
  1.550
  1.590
  1.640
  1.690
  1.740
  1.790
  1.830
  1.880
  1.930
  1.980
  2.020
  2.070
  2.110
  2.150
  2.190
  2.230
  2.270
  2.310
  2.340
  2.380
  2.410
  2.440
  2.470
  2.500
  2.530
  2.550
  2.580
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.242
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  96
  122
  125
  129
  133
  137
  142
  147
  153
  159
  166
  225
  233
  241
  250
  259
  269
  279
  290
  301
  313
  326
  340
  354
  369
  385
  402
  419
  438
  458
  478
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  127
  144
  146
  148
  150
  152
  155
  158
  161
  164
  168
  99
  103
  108
  112
  117
  122
  128
  133
  140
  146
  153
  160
  167
  175
  184
  192
  202
  211
  222
  232
Funds from operations, $m
  150
  266
  271
  276
  283
  289
  297
  305
  314
  323
  333
  325
  337
  349
  362
  376
  391
  407
  423
  441
  459
  479
  500
  522
  545
  569
  594
  621
  650
  679
  711
Change in working capital, $m
  -52
  14
  17
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  30
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
  75
  79
  83
  87
  92
  97
  102
  107
Cash from operations, $m
  202
  252
  254
  258
  261
  266
  271
  277
  283
  291
  298
  287
  296
  306
  317
  328
  340
  353
  366
  381
  396
  412
  429
  447
  466
  486
  507
  529
  553
  578
  604
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -70
  -72
  -74
  -76
  -78
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -89
  -92
  -96
  -99
  -103
  -108
  -112
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -153
  -160
  -167
  -175
  -184
  -192
  -202
  -211
  -222
New CAPEX, $m
  -140
  -26
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -29
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -83
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -103
  -108
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -332
  -96
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -135
  -143
  -149
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -199
  -208
  -219
  -229
  -241
  -253
  -264
  -278
  -292
  -306
  -322
  -337
  -354
Free cash flow, $m
  -130
  156
  162
  160
  159
  159
  159
  159
  160
  161
  163
  145
  147
  150
  153
  156
  160
  163
  168
  172
  177
  183
  188
  194
  201
  208
  215
  223
  231
  240
  250
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  130
  57
  67
  77
  86
  96
  105
  114
  124
  133
  143
  153
  163
  174
  185
  196
  208
  220
  233
  246
  260
  274
  289
  305
  321
  338
  356
  375
  394
  415
  436
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  128
  57
  67
  77
  86
  96
  105
  114
  124
  133
  143
  153
  163
  174
  185
  196
  208
  220
  233
  246
  260
  274
  289
  305
  321
  338
  356
  375
  394
  415
  436
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -3
  213
  229
  237
  246
  255
  264
  274
  284
  295
  306
  298
  311
  324
  338
  352
  368
  384
  400
  418
  437
  457
  477
  499
  522
  546
  571
  598
  626
  655
  686
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -123
  -19
  -22
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -53
  -56
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -79
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -98
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -134
  -141
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  195
  207
  212
  218
  224
  230
  237
  244
  252
  260
  249
  258
  268
  278
  289
  300
  313
  325
  339
  353
  368
  384
  401
  418
  437
  456
  477
  498
  521
  545
Discount rate, %
 
  8.70
  9.14
  9.59
  10.07
  10.57
  11.10
  11.66
  12.24
  12.85
  13.50
  14.17
  14.88
  15.62
  16.41
  17.23
  18.09
  18.99
  19.94
  20.94
  21.98
  23.08
  24.24
  25.45
  26.72
  28.06
  29.46
  30.93
  32.48
  34.11
  35.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  179
  174
  161
  148
  135
  122
  109
  97
  85
  73
  58
  49
  41
  33
  27
  21
  16
  12
  9
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Performance Food Group Company, through its subsidiaries, markets and distributes food and food-related products. The Company operates through three segments: Performance Foodservice, PFG Customized and Vistar. The Performance Foodservice segment distributes a range of national brands, customer brands, and branded food and food-related products. It sells to independent or street, and multi-unit or chain, restaurants and other institutions. Its PFG Customized segment provides service to family and casual dining restaurant chains, and fast casual and quick service restaurant chains. Its Vistar segment specializes in distributing candy, snacks, beverages and other items nationally to the vending, office coffee service, theater, hospitality and other channels. Its products include a range of frozen foods, such as meats, fully prepared appetizers and entrees, and desserts; a range of canned and dry foods; fresh meats; dairy products; beverage products, and snack and other products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Performance Food Group (PFGC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 32.9
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 3.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 51
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 16.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 138.9%
Total Debt to Equity 140.2%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Return On Total Capital 4.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Return On Equity 11.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Asset Turnover 4.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 12.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
EBITDA Margin 2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Operating Margin 1.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Net Profit Margin 0.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Effective Tax Rate 39.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

PFGC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PFGC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $16762 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Performance Food Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Performance Food Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PFGC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.7%, whose default value for PFGC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Performance Food Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Performance Food Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PFGC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $19 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PFGC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.2% for Performance Food Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Performance Food Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PFGC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PFGC are equal to 5.2%.

Life of production assets of 12.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Performance Food Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PFGC is equal to 4.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $926 million for Performance Food Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 104.071 million for Performance Food Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Performance Food Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ [$$] Wellspring Selling 5 Million Shares of Performance Food Group   [Nov-21-17 01:37PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Performance Food posts 1Q profit   [Nov-08-17 07:31AM  Associated Press]
▶ Performance Food Sees IBD RS Rating Climb To 72   [Nov-06-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for October 6th   [Oct-06-17 09:24AM  Zacks]
▶ Performance Food Getting Closer To Key Technical Measure   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Top Ranked Growth Stocks to Buy for October 4th   [Oct-04-17 08:53AM  Zacks]
▶ Stocks With Rising Relative Price Strength: Performance Food   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Performance Food Group Company to Host Investor Day Webcast   [Aug-22-17 10:39AM  Business Wire]
▶ Performance Food posts 4Q profit   [Aug-16-17 10:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Ranked Growth Stocks to Buy for July 5th   [Jul-05-17 09:17AM  Zacks]
▶ Performance Food posts 3Q profit   [07:28AM  Associated Press]
▶ Performance Food posts 2Q profit   [06:36AM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of PFGC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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