Intrinsic value of Performance Food Group - PFGC

Previous Close

$30.60

  Intrinsic Value

$16.67

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-46%

Previous close

$30.60

 
Intrinsic value

$16.67

 
Up/down potential

-46%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of PFGC stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  4.08
  4.10
  4.19
  4.27
  4.34
  4.41
  4.47
  4.52
  4.57
  4.61
  4.65
  4.69
  4.72
  4.75
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
Revenue, $m
  16,762
  17,449
  18,180
  18,957
  19,780
  20,653
  21,575
  22,551
  23,581
  24,669
  25,817
  27,026
  28,301
  29,645
  31,059
  32,548
  34,115
  35,764
  37,498
  39,323
  41,241
  43,258
  45,378
  47,607
  49,949
  52,411
  54,998
  57,715
  60,571
  63,571
  66,723
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  17,202
  17,920
  18,682
  19,490
  20,347
  21,253
  22,210
  23,222
  24,290
  25,416
  26,532
  27,784
  29,102
  30,491
  31,953
  33,491
  35,110
  36,813
  38,603
  40,487
  42,467
  44,548
  46,736
  49,036
  51,452
  53,992
  56,660
  59,463
  62,408
  65,502
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  19
  20
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  23
  24
  24
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  30
  31
  32
  33
  34
  34
  35
  36
  37
  38
  39
  40
Total operating expenses, $m
  16,551
  17,221
  17,940
  18,702
  19,511
  20,368
  21,275
  22,233
  23,245
  24,314
  25,440
  26,557
  27,810
  29,128
  30,518
  31,981
  33,519
  35,139
  36,843
  38,633
  40,518
  42,499
  44,581
  46,770
  49,070
  51,487
  54,028
  56,697
  59,501
  62,447
  65,542
Operating income, $m
  211
  228
  241
  254
  269
  284
  301
  318
  336
  356
  376
  469
  492
  516
  541
  568
  596
  625
  656
  689
  723
  759
  797
  837
  879
  923
  970
  1,019
  1,070
  1,124
  1,180
EBITDA, $m
  338
  373
  389
  406
  424
  444
  464
  485
  508
  532
  557
  584
  612
  641
  673
  705
  740
  776
  815
  855
  897
  942
  989
  1,038
  1,090
  1,145
  1,202
  1,263
  1,326
  1,393
  1,463
Interest expense (income), $m
  51
  54
  59
  64
  70
  76
  82
  89
  96
  103
  111
  119
  128
  137
  147
  157
  168
  179
  191
  203
  216
  230
  245
  260
  276
  293
  310
  329
  349
  369
  391
Earnings before tax, $m
  158
  174
  182
  190
  199
  208
  219
  229
  240
  252
  265
  350
  364
  379
  394
  411
  428
  446
  465
  486
  507
  529
  553
  577
  603
  631
  659
  689
  721
  755
  790
Tax expense, $m
  62
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  95
  98
  102
  106
  111
  116
  120
  126
  131
  137
  143
  149
  156
  163
  170
  178
  186
  195
  204
  213
Net income, $m
  96
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  160
  167
  176
  184
  193
  256
  266
  277
  288
  300
  312
  326
  340
  354
  370
  386
  403
  421
  440
  460
  481
  503
  527
  551
  577

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  3,804
  3,951
  4,117
  4,293
  4,479
  4,677
  4,886
  5,107
  5,340
  5,586
  5,846
  6,120
  6,409
  6,713
  7,033
  7,370
  7,725
  8,099
  8,491
  8,905
  9,339
  9,796
  10,276
  10,781
  11,311
  11,868
  12,454
  13,070
  13,716
  14,396
  15,109
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,796
  3,951
  4,117
  4,293
  4,479
  4,677
  4,886
  5,107
  5,340
  5,586
  5,846
  6,120
  6,409
  6,713
  7,033
  7,370
  7,725
  8,099
  8,491
  8,905
  9,339
  9,796
  10,276
  10,781
  11,311
  11,868
  12,454
  13,070
  13,716
  14,396
  15,109
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
  4.416
Average production assets, $m
  864
  907
  945
  986
  1,029
  1,074
  1,122
  1,173
  1,226
  1,283
  1,342
  1,405
  1,472
  1,542
  1,615
  1,692
  1,774
  1,860
  1,950
  2,045
  2,145
  2,249
  2,360
  2,476
  2,597
  2,725
  2,860
  3,001
  3,150
  3,306
  3,470
Working capital, $m
  702
  733
  764
  796
  831
  867
  906
  947
  990
  1,036
  1,084
  1,135
  1,189
  1,245
  1,304
  1,367
  1,433
  1,502
  1,575
  1,652
  1,732
  1,817
  1,906
  1,999
  2,098
  2,201
  2,310
  2,424
  2,544
  2,670
  2,802
Total debt, $m
  1,298
  1,407
  1,532
  1,665
  1,806
  1,956
  2,114
  2,281
  2,457
  2,643
  2,840
  3,047
  3,265
  3,495
  3,737
  3,992
  4,260
  4,543
  4,840
  5,152
  5,480
  5,826
  6,189
  6,570
  6,971
  7,393
  7,835
  8,301
  8,789
  9,303
  9,843
Total liabilities, $m
  2,879
  2,987
  3,112
  3,245
  3,386
  3,536
  3,694
  3,861
  4,037
  4,223
  4,420
  4,627
  4,845
  5,075
  5,317
  5,572
  5,840
  6,123
  6,420
  6,732
  7,060
  7,406
  7,769
  8,150
  8,551
  8,973
  9,415
  9,881
  10,369
  10,883
  11,423
Total equity, $m
  926
  964
  1,005
  1,047
  1,093
  1,141
  1,192
  1,246
  1,303
  1,363
  1,426
  1,493
  1,564
  1,638
  1,716
  1,798
  1,885
  1,976
  2,072
  2,173
  2,279
  2,390
  2,507
  2,630
  2,760
  2,896
  3,039
  3,189
  3,347
  3,513
  3,687
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  3,805
  3,951
  4,117
  4,292
  4,479
  4,677
  4,886
  5,107
  5,340
  5,586
  5,846
  6,120
  6,409
  6,713
  7,033
  7,370
  7,725
  8,099
  8,492
  8,905
  9,339
  9,796
  10,276
  10,780
  11,311
  11,869
  12,454
  13,070
  13,716
  14,396
  15,110
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.402
  1.460
  1.530
  1.590
  1.650
  1.710
  1.770
  1.830
  1.890
  1.940
  1.990
  2.040
  2.090
  2.130
  2.180
  2.220
  2.260
  2.300
  2.340
  2.370
  2.400
  2.440
  2.470
  2.500
  2.530
  2.550
  2.580
  2.600
  2.630
  2.650
  2.670
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.242
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244
  0.244

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  96
  127
  133
  139
  145
  152
  160
  167
  176
  184
  193
  256
  266
  277
  288
  300
  312
  326
  340
  354
  370
  386
  403
  421
  440
  460
  481
  503
  527
  551
  577
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  127
  146
  149
  152
  156
  159
  163
  167
  172
  176
  181
  114
  120
  125
  131
  138
  144
  151
  159
  166
  174
  183
  192
  201
  211
  222
  233
  244
  256
  269
  282
Funds from operations, $m
  150
  272
  281
  291
  301
  311
  323
  335
  347
  360
  374
  370
  385
  402
  419
  437
  457
  477
  498
  521
  544
  569
  595
  623
  652
  682
  714
  747
  783
  820
  859
Change in working capital, $m
  -52
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  46
  48
  51
  54
  56
  59
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  89
  94
  98
  103
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
Cash from operations, $m
  202
  244
  251
  258
  266
  275
  284
  294
  304
  315
  326
  319
  332
  345
  360
  375
  391
  408
  425
  444
  464
  484
  506
  529
  553
  578
  605
  633
  663
  694
  726
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -80
  -84
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -138
  -144
  -151
  -159
  -166
  -174
  -183
  -192
  -201
  -211
  -222
  -233
  -244
  -256
  -269
New CAPEX, $m
  -140
  -44
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -332
  -114
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -190
  -199
  -208
  -219
  -230
  -241
  -254
  -266
  -279
  -293
  -308
  -323
  -339
  -357
  -374
  -392
  -412
  -433
Free cash flow, $m
  -130
  129
  139
  141
  143
  146
  149
  152
  155
  158
  162
  147
  151
  156
  161
  166
  172
  178
  184
  191
  198
  205
  213
  221
  230
  239
  249
  259
  270
  282
  294
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  130
  117
  125
  133
  141
  149
  158
  167
  176
  186
  196
  207
  218
  230
  242
  255
  268
  282
  297
  312
  328
  345
  363
  382
  401
  421
  443
  465
  489
  514
  540
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  4
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  128
  117
  125
  133
  141
  149
  158
  167
  176
  186
  196
  207
  218
  230
  242
  255
  268
  282
  297
  312
  328
  345
  363
  382
  401
  421
  443
  465
  489
  514
  540
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -3
  247
  264
  274
  284
  295
  307
  319
  331
  345
  359
  354
  370
  386
  403
  421
  440
  460
  481
  503
  526
  550
  576
  603
  631
  661
  692
  725
  759
  795
  833
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -123
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -87
  -91
  -96
  -101
  -106
  -111
  -117
  -123
  -129
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -166
  -174
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  209
  224
  231
  239
  247
  256
  265
  274
  285
  295
  287
  299
  312
  325
  339
  354
  369
  385
  402
  420
  439
  459
  480
  502
  525
  549
  574
  601
  629
  659
Discount rate, %
 
  8.70
  9.14
  9.59
  10.07
  10.57
  11.10
  11.66
  12.24
  12.85
  13.50
  14.17
  14.88
  15.62
  16.41
  17.23
  18.09
  18.99
  19.94
  20.94
  21.98
  23.08
  24.24
  25.45
  26.72
  28.06
  29.46
  30.93
  32.48
  34.11
  35.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  192
  188
  175
  163
  149
  136
  122
  109
  96
  83
  67
  57
  47
  39
  31
  25
  19
  15
  11
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Performance Food Group Company, through its subsidiaries, markets and distributes food and food-related products. The Company operates through three segments: Performance Foodservice, PFG Customized and Vistar. The Performance Foodservice segment distributes a range of national brands, customer brands, and branded food and food-related products. It sells to independent or street, and multi-unit or chain, restaurants and other institutions. Its PFG Customized segment provides service to family and casual dining restaurant chains, and fast casual and quick service restaurant chains. Its Vistar segment specializes in distributing candy, snacks, beverages and other items nationally to the vending, office coffee service, theater, hospitality and other channels. Its products include a range of frozen foods, such as meats, fully prepared appetizers and entrees, and desserts; a range of canned and dry foods; fresh meats; dairy products; beverage products, and snack and other products.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Performance Food Group (PFGC)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 32.1
Price to Sales 0.2
Price to Book 3.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 15.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 49.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 4.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 16.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 1
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 138.9%
Total Debt to Equity 140.2%
Interest Coverage 4
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 3.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.2%
Return On Total Capital 4.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.7%
Return On Equity 11.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.3%
Asset Turnover 4.6
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 12.7%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12.4%
EBITDA Margin 2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Operating Margin 1.3%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 0.9%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Net Profit Margin 0.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.5%
Effective Tax Rate 39.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 40.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

PFGC stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PFGC stock intrinsic value calculation we used $16762 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Performance Food Group. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Performance Food Group. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PFGC stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.1% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.7%, whose default value for PFGC is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Performance Food Group, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Performance Food Group.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PFGC stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 98.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $19 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PFGC stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.2% for Performance Food Group.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Performance Food Group. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PFGC stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PFGC are equal to 5.2%.

Life of production assets of 12.3 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Performance Food Group operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PFGC is equal to 4.2%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $926 million for Performance Food Group - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 104.834 million for Performance Food Group is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Performance Food Group at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $3.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Performance Food Group Company to Host Earnings Call   [Feb-07-18 07:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ [$$] Wellspring Selling 5 Million Shares of Performance Food Group   [Nov-21-17 01:37PM  The Wall Street Journal]
▶ Performance Food posts 1Q profit   [Nov-08-17 07:31AM  Associated Press]
▶ Performance Food Sees IBD RS Rating Climb To 72   [Nov-06-17 03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Top Ranked Value Stocks to Buy for October 6th   [Oct-06-17 09:24AM  Zacks]
▶ Performance Food Getting Closer To Key Technical Measure   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Top Ranked Growth Stocks to Buy for October 4th   [Oct-04-17 08:53AM  Zacks]
▶ Stocks With Rising Relative Price Strength: Performance Food   [03:00AM  Investor's Business Daily]
▶ Performance Food Group Company to Host Investor Day Webcast   [Aug-22-17 10:39AM  Business Wire]
▶ Performance Food posts 4Q profit   [Aug-16-17 10:26PM  Associated Press]
▶ Top Ranked Growth Stocks to Buy for July 5th   [Jul-05-17 09:17AM  Zacks]
▶ Performance Food posts 3Q profit   [07:28AM  Associated Press]
Financial statements of PFGC
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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