Intrinsic value of PFSweb - PFSW

Previous Close

$8.16

  Intrinsic Value

$2.25

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-72%

Previous close

$8.16

 
Intrinsic value

$2.25

 
Up/down potential

-72%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of PFSW stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.2

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  16.32
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  335
  342
  350
  359
  369
  380
  392
  405
  420
  435
  452
  470
  489
  509
  531
  554
  578
  604
  631
  660
  690
  722
  756
  791
  829
  868
  910
  954
  1,000
  1,048
  1,099
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  320
  327
  336
  345
  355
  367
  379
  392
  407
  422
  434
  452
  470
  490
  511
  534
  558
  583
  609
  637
  667
  698
  731
  765
  802
  840
  880
  923
  968
  1,015
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  29
  30
  31
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  36
  37
  37
  38
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  48
  49
  50
Total operating expenses, $m
  337
  345
  352
  362
  371
  382
  395
  408
  421
  437
  453
  465
  484
  503
  524
  546
  570
  595
  620
  647
  676
  707
  739
  773
  808
  846
  886
  927
  971
  1,017
  1,065
Operating income, $m
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
EBITDA, $m
  12
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  30
  32
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  49
  52
  56
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
Earnings before tax, $m
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  6
  6
  7
  9
  10
  11
  12
  14
  15
  17
Tax expense, $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
Net income, $m
  -8
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  24
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  211
  191
  195
  200
  206
  212
  219
  226
  234
  243
  252
  262
  273
  284
  296
  309
  323
  337
  352
  368
  385
  403
  422
  442
  463
  485
  508
  532
  558
  585
  614
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  187
  191
  195
  200
  206
  212
  219
  226
  234
  243
  252
  262
  273
  284
  296
  309
  323
  337
  352
  368
  385
  403
  422
  442
  463
  485
  508
  532
  558
  585
  614
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.791
  1.791
  1.795
  1.795
  1.791
  1.792
  1.790
  1.792
  1.795
  1.790
  1.794
  1.794
  1.791
  1.792
  1.794
  1.793
  1.789
  1.792
  1.793
  1.793
  1.792
  1.792
  1.791
  1.790
  1.790
  1.790
  1.791
  1.793
  1.792
  1.791
  1.790
Average production assets, $m
  35
  36
  36
  37
  38
  39
  41
  42
  44
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
Working capital, $m
  19
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
Total debt, $m
  60
  56
  60
  65
  70
  75
  81
  88
  95
  102
  110
  119
  129
  138
  149
  160
  172
  185
  198
  212
  227
  243
  259
  277
  295
  314
  335
  356
  378
  402
  427
Total liabilities, $m
  171
  167
  171
  176
  181
  186
  192
  199
  206
  213
  221
  230
  240
  249
  260
  271
  283
  296
  309
  323
  338
  354
  370
  388
  406
  425
  446
  467
  489
  513
  538
Total equity, $m
  40
  23
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  36
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  65
  69
  72
  75
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  211
  190
  195
  201
  206
  212
  219
  227
  235
  243
  252
  262
  274
  284
  296
  309
  323
  337
  352
  368
  385
  404
  422
  442
  463
  485
  508
  532
  558
  585
  613
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.500
  2.400
  2.510
  2.620
  2.750
  2.870
  3.010
  3.140
  3.280
  3.420
  3.560
  3.690
  3.830
  3.960
  4.090
  4.210
  4.330
  4.450
  4.570
  4.680
  4.790
  4.890
  4.990
  5.090
  5.180
  5.270
  5.350
  5.440
  5.510
  5.590
  5.660
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.086
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123
  0.123

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -8
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  15
  11
  12
  12
  12
  12
  12
  13
  13
  13
  14
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Funds from operations, $m
  14
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
Change in working capital, $m
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  13
  6
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
New CAPEX, $m
  -9
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -17
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
Free cash flow, $m
  -4
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  2
  3
  4
  4
  5
  6
  7
  8
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  17
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  6
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  7
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  10
  10
  11
  12
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  8
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  16
  17
  18
  20
  21
  23
  25
  27
  28
  31
  33
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  4
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  17
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  19
  2
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  24
  25
  27
  29
Discount rate, %
 
  6.00
  6.30
  6.62
  6.95
  7.29
  7.66
  8.04
  8.44
  8.86
  9.31
  9.77
  10.26
  10.78
  11.31
  11.88
  12.47
  13.10
  13.75
  14.44
  15.16
  15.92
  16.72
  17.55
  18.43
  19.35
  20.32
  21.33
  22.40
  23.52
  24.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  18
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  2
  2
  2
  2
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  94.0
  88.3
  82.9
  77.8
  73.1
  68.8
  64.8
  61.3
  58.0
  55.2
  54.6
  54.1
  53.7
  53.4
  53.2
  53.1
  53.1
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PFSWEB, Inc. is a global provider of omni-channel commerce solutions, including a range of technology, infrastructure and professional services. The Company's service offerings include Website design, creation and integration, digital agency and marketing, e-commerce technologies, order management, customer care, logistics and fulfillment, financial management and professional consulting. It operates through two segments: PFSweb, and Business and Retail Connect. PFSweb is a global provider of various infrastructure, technology and digital agency solutions and operates as a service fee business. In the Business and Retail Connect segment, subsidiaries of the Company purchase inventory from clients and resell the inventory to client customers. Its solutions support direct-to-consumer (DTC), business-to-business (B2B) and retail sales channels. It markets its solutions as PFSweb's End2End eCommerce solution.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  PFSweb (PFSW)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -19.1
Price to Sales 0.5
Price to Book 3.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 11.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 38.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 16.3%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 125%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 2.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 3
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 132.5%
Total Debt to Equity 150%
Interest Coverage -2
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -2.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. -3.1%
Return On Total Capital -8.9%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. -10.3%
Return On Equity -19%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -16.8%
Asset Turnover 1.7
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 21.8%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 20.4%
EBITDA Margin 3.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Operating Margin -0.6%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.3%
Pre-Tax Margin -1.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1.9%
Net Profit Margin -2.4%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -2.4%
Effective Tax Rate -60%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -31.1%
Payout Ratio 0%

PFSW stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PFSW stock intrinsic value calculation we used $335 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by PFSweb. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of PFSweb. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PFSW stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6%, whose default value for PFSW is calculated based on our internal credit rating of PFSweb, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of PFSweb.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PFSW stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 93.7%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $24 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PFSW stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.2% for PFSweb.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for PFSweb. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PFSW stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PFSW are equal to 10.4%.

Life of production assets of 5.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in PFSweb operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PFSW is equal to 0.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $40 million for PFSweb - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 18.983 million for PFSweb is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of PFSweb at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.2 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 5 of the Best Stocks Under $10 for 2017   [Oct-05-17 01:57PM  Zacks]
▶ 5 of the Best Stocks Under $10 for 2017   [Sep-05-17 12:41PM  Zacks]
▶ PFSweb reports 2Q loss   [Aug-08-17 12:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ PFSweb Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-07-17 04:06PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to PFSweb, Inc. : August 1, 2017   [Aug-01-17 05:07PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to PFSweb, Inc. : July 13, 2017   [Jul-13-17 04:29PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to PFSweb, Inc. : June 27, 2017   [Jun-27-17 03:33PM  Capital Cube]
▶ PFSweb to Present at Upcoming 2017 Investor Conferences   [May-12-17 08:31AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ PFSweb reports 1Q loss   [May-10-17 04:44PM  Associated Press]
▶ PFSweb Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ ETFs with exposure to PFSweb, Inc. : April 27, 2017   [Apr-27-17 04:13PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to PFSweb, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:17PM  Capital Cube]
▶ PFSweb reports 4Q loss   [08:46AM  Associated Press]
▶ Webcast-Q4 Earnings Call for PFSweb, Inc.   [Mar-10-17 11:11PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ PFSweb Signs Three-Year Extension with L'Oreal USA   [Mar-07-17 08:30AM  Marketwired]
▶ Here is What Hedge Funds Think About Era Group Inc (ERA)   [Dec-14-16 06:21AM  Insider Monkey]
▶ ETFs with exposure to PFSweb, Inc. : December 1, 2016   [Dec-01-16 11:44AM  Capital Cube]
▶ PFSweb to Attend Upcoming Investor Conferences   [Nov-14-16 08:30AM  Marketwired]
▶ PFSweb Reports Third Quarter 2016 Results   [04:05PM  Marketwired]
▶ Video-Investor Presentation for PFSweb, Inc.   [Sep-06-16 10:53AM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ PFSweb to Present at Upcoming 2016 Investor Conferences   [May-16-16 08:30AM  Marketwired]
▶ PFSweb Reports First Quarter 2016 Results   [04:05PM  Marketwired]
▶ Coverage initiated on PFSWeb by Northland Capital   [Apr-21-16 09:46AM  Briefing.com]
▶ 2016 Japan eCommerce Market   [Mar-24-16 04:36PM  at noodls]
Financial statements of PFSW
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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