Intrinsic value of Ply Gem Holdings - PGEM

Previous Close

$18.40

  Intrinsic Value

$5.71

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-69%

Previous close

$18.40

 
Intrinsic value

$5.71

 
Up/down potential

-69%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of PGEM stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.91
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.00
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
  5.53
  5.48
  5.43
  5.39
  5.35
  5.32
  5.28
  5.26
  5.23
  5.21
  5.19
  5.17
  5.15
  5.14
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
Revenue, $m
  1,912
  2,040
  2,173
  2,312
  2,456
  2,606
  2,763
  2,926
  3,096
  3,273
  3,459
  3,652
  3,854
  4,065
  4,286
  4,517
  4,759
  5,012
  5,277
  5,554
  5,844
  6,149
  6,468
  6,802
  7,152
  7,520
  7,905
  8,309
  8,732
  9,177
  9,643
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,914
  2,036
  2,163
  2,295
  2,433
  2,576
  2,725
  2,881
  3,043
  3,212
  3,342
  3,526
  3,720
  3,922
  4,133
  4,354
  4,586
  4,828
  5,082
  5,347
  5,626
  5,918
  6,223
  6,544
  6,880
  7,232
  7,602
  7,990
  8,396
  8,823
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,816
  1,914
  2,036
  2,163
  2,295
  2,433
  2,576
  2,725
  2,881
  3,043
  3,212
  3,342
  3,526
  3,720
  3,922
  4,133
  4,354
  4,586
  4,828
  5,082
  5,347
  5,626
  5,918
  6,223
  6,544
  6,880
  7,232
  7,602
  7,990
  8,396
  8,823
Operating income, $m
  96
  126
  137
  149
  161
  174
  187
  201
  215
  231
  246
  311
  328
  346
  365
  384
  405
  426
  449
  472
  497
  523
  550
  579
  608
  640
  672
  707
  743
  780
  820
EBITDA, $m
  152
  196
  208
  222
  235
  250
  265
  281
  297
  314
  332
  350
  369
  390
  411
  433
  456
  480
  506
  532
  560
  589
  620
  652
  686
  721
  758
  797
  837
  880
  924
Interest expense (income), $m
  59
  54
  48
  53
  58
  64
  69
  75
  81
  87
  94
  101
  108
  115
  123
  131
  140
  149
  158
  168
  178
  189
  200
  212
  224
  237
  251
  265
  280
  295
  312
Earnings before tax, $m
  23
  71
  89
  95
  103
  110
  118
  126
  134
  143
  152
  210
  220
  230
  241
  253
  265
  278
  291
  305
  319
  334
  350
  367
  384
  402
  422
  442
  463
  485
  508
Tax expense, $m
  -52
  19
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  34
  36
  39
  41
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
Net income, $m
  75
  52
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  92
  98
  105
  111
  153
  161
  168
  176
  185
  193
  203
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
  268
  280
  294
  308
  323
  338
  354
  371

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  52
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,258
  1,287
  1,371
  1,459
  1,550
  1,644
  1,743
  1,846
  1,953
  2,065
  2,182
  2,304
  2,432
  2,565
  2,704
  2,850
  3,003
  3,162
  3,329
  3,504
  3,687
  3,879
  4,081
  4,291
  4,512
  4,744
  4,987
  5,242
  5,509
  5,790
  6,084
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,206
  1,287
  1,371
  1,459
  1,550
  1,644
  1,743
  1,846
  1,953
  2,065
  2,182
  2,304
  2,432
  2,565
  2,704
  2,850
  3,003
  3,162
  3,329
  3,504
  3,687
  3,879
  4,081
  4,291
  4,512
  4,744
  4,987
  5,242
  5,509
  5,790
  6,084
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
  1.585
Average production assets, $m
  280
  298
  317
  338
  359
  381
  403
  427
  452
  478
  505
  533
  563
  594
  626
  660
  695
  732
  770
  811
  853
  898
  944
  993
  1,044
  1,098
  1,154
  1,213
  1,275
  1,340
  1,408
Working capital, $m
  176
  137
  146
  155
  165
  175
  185
  196
  207
  219
  232
  245
  258
  272
  287
  303
  319
  336
  354
  372
  392
  412
  433
  456
  479
  504
  530
  557
  585
  615
  646
Total debt, $m
  840
  744
  820
  899
  981
  1,066
  1,155
  1,247
  1,344
  1,445
  1,550
  1,660
  1,775
  1,894
  2,020
  2,151
  2,288
  2,432
  2,582
  2,740
  2,905
  3,077
  3,258
  3,448
  3,647
  3,856
  4,074
  4,304
  4,544
  4,797
  5,061
Total liabilities, $m
  1,254
  1,158
  1,234
  1,313
  1,395
  1,480
  1,569
  1,661
  1,758
  1,859
  1,964
  2,074
  2,189
  2,308
  2,434
  2,565
  2,702
  2,846
  2,996
  3,154
  3,319
  3,491
  3,672
  3,862
  4,061
  4,270
  4,488
  4,718
  4,958
  5,211
  5,475
Total equity, $m
  4
  129
  137
  146
  155
  164
  174
  185
  195
  207
  218
  230
  243
  256
  270
  285
  300
  316
  333
  350
  369
  388
  408
  429
  451
  474
  499
  524
  551
  579
  608
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,258
  1,287
  1,371
  1,459
  1,550
  1,644
  1,743
  1,846
  1,953
  2,066
  2,182
  2,304
  2,432
  2,564
  2,704
  2,850
  3,002
  3,162
  3,329
  3,504
  3,688
  3,879
  4,080
  4,291
  4,512
  4,744
  4,987
  5,242
  5,509
  5,790
  6,083
Debt-to-equity ratio
  210.000
  5.780
  5.980
  6.160
  6.330
  6.480
  6.620
  6.760
  6.880
  7.000
  7.100
  7.200
  7.300
  7.390
  7.470
  7.550
  7.620
  7.690
  7.760
  7.820
  7.880
  7.930
  7.990
  8.040
  8.080
  8.130
  8.170
  8.210
  8.250
  8.280
  8.320
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.040
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  75
  52
  65
  70
  75
  80
  86
  92
  98
  105
  111
  153
  161
  168
  176
  185
  193
  203
  212
  222
  233
  244
  256
  268
  280
  294
  308
  323
  338
  354
  371
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  56
  70
  71
  73
  74
  76
  78
  80
  81
  83
  85
  39
  42
  44
  46
  49
  51
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  74
  77
  81
  85
  90
  94
  99
  104
Funds from operations, $m
  126
  122
  136
  143
  149
  156
  164
  171
  179
  188
  197
  193
  202
  212
  223
  233
  245
  257
  269
  282
  296
  310
  325
  341
  358
  375
  393
  412
  432
  453
  475
Change in working capital, $m
  -19
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
Cash from operations, $m
  145
  113
  127
  133
  140
  146
  153
  161
  168
  176
  184
  180
  189
  198
  208
  218
  229
  240
  252
  264
  277
  290
  304
  319
  334
  351
  368
  385
  404
  424
  444
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
  -94
  -99
New CAPEX, $m
  -36
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -36
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -159
  -167
Free cash flow, $m
  109
  74
  86
  90
  94
  98
  102
  107
  112
  117
  122
  114
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  151
  159
  166
  174
  182
  191
  200
  210
  220
  230
  241
  252
  264
  277
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -164
  -92
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  144
  150
  157
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
  219
  229
  241
  252
  265
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  1
  121
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -168
  29
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  144
  150
  157
  165
  173
  181
  190
  199
  209
  219
  229
  241
  252
  265
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -58
  103
  161
  168
  176
  183
  191
  199
  208
  217
  227
  224
  234
  245
  257
  269
  282
  295
  309
  324
  339
  355
  372
  390
  409
  428
  449
  470
  493
  517
  542
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -81
  -173
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  48
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -21
  153
  159
  166
  174
  181
  189
  197
  206
  215
  212
  222
  232
  243
  255
  267
  279
  292
  306
  321
  336
  352
  369
  386
  405
  424
  445
  466
  489
  512
Discount rate, %
 
  12.40
  13.02
  13.67
  14.35
  15.07
  15.83
  16.62
  17.45
  18.32
  19.24
  20.20
  21.21
  22.27
  23.38
  24.55
  25.78
  27.07
  28.42
  29.84
  31.33
  32.90
  34.55
  36.27
  38.09
  39.99
  41.99
  44.09
  46.29
  48.61
  51.04
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -19
  120
  109
  97
  86
  75
  64
  55
  45
  37
  28
  22
  17
  13
  9
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Ply Gem Holdings, Inc. is a manufacturer of exterior building products in North America. The Company operates through two segments: Siding, Fencing, and Stone, and Windows and Doors. In the Siding, Fencing, and Stone segment, its principal products include vinyl siding and skirting, vinyl and aluminum soffit, aluminum trim coil, cellular PVC trim and moldings, J-channels, wide crown molding, window and door trim, F-channels, H-molds, fascia, undersill trims, outside/inside corner posts, rain removal systems, injection molded designer accents, such as shakes, shingles, scallops, shutters, vents and mounts, vinyl fence, vinyl railing and stone veneer in the United States and Canada. In the Windows and Doors segment, its principal products include vinyl, aluminum-clad vinyl, aluminum, wood and clad-wood windows and patio doors and steel, wood, and fiberglass entry doors that serve both the new construction and the home repair and remodeling sectors in the United States and Canada.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Ply Gem Holdings (PGEM)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 16.7
Price to Sales 0.7
Price to Book 314
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 8.7
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 5.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 6.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 13
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 20900%
Total Debt to Equity 21000%
Interest Coverage 1
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 21.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.4%
Return On Total Capital 8.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.8%
Return On Equity -205.5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. -66.9%
Asset Turnover 1.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 24.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 22.2%
EBITDA Margin 7.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Operating Margin 5%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Pre-Tax Margin 1.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.3%
Net Profit Margin 3.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Effective Tax Rate -226.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. -75.4%
Payout Ratio 0%

PGEM stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PGEM stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1912 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Ply Gem Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Ply Gem Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PGEM stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 6.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 12.4%, whose default value for PGEM is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Ply Gem Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Ply Gem Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PGEM stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 94%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PGEM stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 6.5% for Ply Gem Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Ply Gem Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PGEM stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PGEM are equal to 14.6%.

Life of production assets of 13.5 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Ply Gem Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PGEM is equal to 6.7%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $4 million for Ply Gem Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 68.263 million for Ply Gem Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Ply Gem Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ New Strong Sell Stocks for November 9th   [Nov-09-17 08:24AM  Zacks]
▶ Ply Gem misses Street 3Q forecasts   [07:29AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ply Gem Reports Third Quarter 2017 Results   [07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Ply Gem misses Street 2Q forecasts   [Aug-08-17 12:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ply Gem Reports Second Quarter 2017 Results   [Aug-07-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ 3 Growth Stocks for June   [Jun-08-17 11:31AM  Motley Fool]
▶ Ply Gem reports 1Q loss   [May-08-17 07:12AM  Associated Press]
▶ Ply Gem Reports First Quarter 2017 Results   [07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ 6 Stocks Trading Below Peter Lynch Value   [Apr-06-17 03:44PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Ply Gem misses 4Q profit forecasts   [07:18AM  Associated Press]
▶ Do Hedge Funds Love Ply Gem Holdings Inc (PGEM)?   [Dec-02-16 08:55AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ Ply Gem Reports Third Quarter 2016 Results   [07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ Ply Gem Reports Second Quarter 2016 Results   [07:00AM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of PGEM
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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