Intrinsic value of PGT Innovations - PGTI

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$12.30

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PGTI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  17.69
  17.70
  16.43
  15.29
  14.26
  13.33
  12.50
  11.75
  11.07
  10.47
  9.92
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.61
  7.35
  7.12
  6.91
  6.72
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.13
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
Revenue, $m
  459
  540
  629
  725
  829
  939
  1,056
  1,181
  1,311
  1,448
  1,592
  1,742
  1,899
  2,062
  2,232
  2,408
  2,591
  2,782
  2,980
  3,186
  3,400
  3,622
  3,854
  4,094
  4,345
  4,607
  4,879
  5,163
  5,459
  5,768
  6,091
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  468
  543
  624
  711
  805
  904
  1,009
  1,119
  1,235
  1,357
  1,473
  1,605
  1,743
  1,887
  2,036
  2,191
  2,352
  2,519
  2,693
  2,874
  3,062
  3,258
  3,462
  3,674
  3,895
  4,125
  4,365
  4,616
  4,877
  5,150
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  403
  468
  543
  624
  711
  805
  904
  1,009
  1,119
  1,235
  1,357
  1,473
  1,605
  1,743
  1,887
  2,036
  2,191
  2,352
  2,519
  2,693
  2,874
  3,062
  3,258
  3,462
  3,674
  3,895
  4,125
  4,365
  4,616
  4,877
  5,150
Operating income, $m
  56
  73
  86
  101
  117
  134
  152
  172
  192
  213
  235
  269
  293
  319
  345
  372
  400
  430
  460
  492
  525
  560
  595
  633
  671
  712
  754
  798
  844
  891
  941
EBITDA, $m
  72
  90
  105
  121
  138
  156
  176
  196
  218
  241
  265
  290
  316
  343
  371
  400
  431
  462
  495
  529
  565
  602
  640
  680
  722
  766
  811
  858
  907
  959
  1,012
Interest expense (income), $m
  16
  14
  17
  20
  23
  27
  31
  35
  40
  45
  50
  55
  60
  66
  72
  78
  85
  91
  98
  106
  113
  121
  129
  137
  146
  155
  165
  175
  185
  196
  207
Earnings before tax, $m
  36
  59
  70
  81
  94
  107
  121
  136
  152
  168
  186
  214
  233
  253
  273
  294
  316
  339
  362
  387
  412
  439
  467
  495
  525
  557
  589
  623
  659
  696
  734
Tax expense, $m
  12
  16
  19
  22
  25
  29
  33
  37
  41
  45
  50
  58
  63
  68
  74
  79
  85
  91
  98
  104
  111
  119
  126
  134
  142
  150
  159
  168
  178
  188
  198
Net income, $m
  24
  43
  51
  59
  69
  78
  89
  99
  111
  123
  135
  156
  170
  184
  199
  215
  231
  247
  264
  282
  301
  320
  341
  362
  383
  406
  430
  455
  481
  508
  536

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  39
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  437
  469
  546
  629
  719
  814
  916
  1,024
  1,137
  1,256
  1,381
  1,511
  1,647
  1,788
  1,935
  2,088
  2,247
  2,413
  2,584
  2,763
  2,949
  3,141
  3,342
  3,551
  3,769
  3,995
  4,231
  4,478
  4,735
  5,003
  5,283
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  398
  469
  546
  629
  719
  814
  916
  1,024
  1,137
  1,256
  1,381
  1,511
  1,647
  1,788
  1,935
  2,088
  2,247
  2,413
  2,584
  2,763
  2,949
  3,141
  3,342
  3,551
  3,769
  3,995
  4,231
  4,478
  4,735
  5,003
  5,283
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.153
  1.151
  1.152
  1.153
  1.153
  1.154
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
Average production assets, $m
  178
  118
  137
  158
  181
  205
  230
  257
  286
  316
  347
  380
  414
  449
  486
  525
  565
  606
  650
  694
  741
  790
  840
  893
  947
  1,004
  1,064
  1,125
  1,190
  1,257
  1,328
Working capital, $m
  99
  71
  82
  95
  109
  123
  138
  155
  172
  190
  209
  228
  249
  270
  292
  315
  339
  364
  390
  417
  445
  474
  505
  536
  569
  603
  639
  676
  715
  756
  798
Total debt, $m
  248
  302
  361
  425
  493
  566
  644
  726
  813
  904
  999
  1,098
  1,202
  1,310
  1,423
  1,540
  1,661
  1,787
  1,919
  2,055
  2,197
  2,344
  2,497
  2,657
  2,823
  2,996
  3,177
  3,365
  3,561
  3,766
  3,980
Total liabilities, $m
  304
  358
  417
  481
  549
  622
  700
  782
  869
  960
  1,055
  1,154
  1,258
  1,366
  1,479
  1,596
  1,717
  1,843
  1,975
  2,111
  2,253
  2,400
  2,553
  2,713
  2,879
  3,052
  3,233
  3,421
  3,617
  3,822
  4,036
Total equity, $m
  133
  111
  129
  148
  170
  192
  216
  242
  268
  296
  326
  357
  389
  422
  457
  493
  530
  569
  610
  652
  696
  741
  789
  838
  889
  943
  999
  1,057
  1,117
  1,181
  1,247
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  437
  469
  546
  629
  719
  814
  916
  1,024
  1,137
  1,256
  1,381
  1,511
  1,647
  1,788
  1,936
  2,089
  2,247
  2,412
  2,585
  2,763
  2,949
  3,141
  3,342
  3,551
  3,768
  3,995
  4,232
  4,478
  4,734
  5,003
  5,283
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.865
  2.730
  2.800
  2.860
  2.910
  2.950
  2.980
  3.010
  3.030
  3.050
  3.070
  3.080
  3.090
  3.100
  3.110
  3.120
  3.130
  3.140
  3.150
  3.150
  3.160
  3.160
  3.170
  3.170
  3.170
  3.180
  3.180
  3.180
  3.190
  3.190
  3.190
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  24
  43
  51
  59
  69
  78
  89
  99
  111
  123
  135
  156
  170
  184
  199
  215
  231
  247
  264
  282
  301
  320
  341
  362
  383
  406
  430
  455
  481
  508
  536
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  26
  28
  29
  20
  22
  24
  26
  28
  30
  32
  35
  37
  40
  42
  45
  48
  51
  54
  57
  60
  64
  67
  71
Funds from operations, $m
  43
  60
  69
  79
  89
  100
  112
  124
  137
  151
  165
  177
  192
  208
  225
  243
  261
  280
  299
  319
  341
  363
  386
  409
  434
  460
  487
  515
  544
  575
  607
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  11
  12
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  32
  33
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
  42
Cash from operations, $m
  46
  71
  57
  66
  75
  86
  96
  108
  120
  133
  146
  157
  172
  187
  203
  219
  237
  255
  273
  293
  313
  333
  355
  378
  401
  426
  451
  478
  506
  534
  565
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -35
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
New CAPEX, $m
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -48
  -50
  -53
  -55
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -119
  -23
  -25
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -37
  -39
  -43
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -54
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -68
  -72
  -75
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
Free cash flow, $m
  -73
  47
  32
  38
  44
  52
  60
  68
  78
  87
  98
  106
  117
  129
  142
  155
  169
  183
  198
  213
  229
  245
  263
  280
  299
  318
  338
  359
  381
  403
  427
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  58
  54
  59
  64
  69
  73
  78
  82
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  126
  131
  136
  142
  147
  153
  160
  166
  173
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  50
  54
  59
  64
  69
  73
  78
  82
  87
  91
  95
  99
  104
  108
  112
  117
  122
  126
  131
  136
  142
  147
  153
  160
  166
  173
  180
  188
  196
  205
  214
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -22
  101
  91
  102
  113
  125
  138
  151
  164
  178
  193
  205
  221
  237
  254
  272
  290
  309
  329
  349
  371
  393
  416
  440
  465
  491
  519
  547
  577
  608
  641
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -26
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -63
  -66
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  39
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  124
  72
  82
  92
  102
  114
  125
  137
  150
  164
  175
  189
  204
  220
  236
  253
  270
  288
  307
  327
  347
  369
  391
  414
  438
  463
  489
  516
  545
  575
Discount rate, %
 
  8.60
  9.03
  9.48
  9.96
  10.45
  10.98
  11.52
  12.10
  12.71
  13.34
  14.01
  14.71
  15.44
  16.22
  17.03
  17.88
  18.77
  19.71
  20.70
  21.73
  22.82
  23.96
  25.16
  26.42
  27.74
  29.12
  30.58
  32.11
  33.71
  35.40
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  114
  61
  62
  63
  62
  61
  58
  55
  51
  47
  41
  36
  32
  27
  22
  18
  14
  11
  9
  6
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

PGT Innovations, Inc. manufactures and supplies residential impact-resistant windows and doors in the Southeastern United States, the Gulf Coast, Coastal mid-Atlantic, the Caribbean, Central America, and Canada. The company offers heavy-duty aluminum or vinyl frames with laminated glass to provide protection from hurricane-force winds and wind-borne debris; and impact-resistant vinyl window and door products for the mid- to high-end of the replacement market, primarily for single and multi-family homes and low to mid-rise condominiums. It also provides architectural systems products that provide protection from hurricane-force winds and wind-borne debris for mid- and high-rise buildings; high-end aluminum impact-resistant windows and doors; and non-impact-resistant aluminum frame windows and doors. In addition, the company offers non-glass vertical and horizontal sliding panels for porch enclosures, such as vinyl-glazed, aluminum-framed products used for enclosing screened-in porches that provide protection from inclement weather; and commercial storefront window system and entry doors. PGT Innovations, Inc. markets its products under the WinGuard, Eze-Breeze, SpectraGuard, PremierVue, WinGuard Vinyl, EnergyVue, Estate Collection, Sentinel, Estate Entrances, Commercial Series, and Targa names, as well as PGT Architectural Systems and PGT Commercial Storefront System brand names. It serves residential new construction, and repair and remodeling end markets through window distributors, building supply distributors, window replacement dealers, and enclosure contractors. The company was formerly known as PGT, Inc. and changed its name to PGT Innovations, Inc. in December 2016. PGT Innovations, Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in North Venice, Florida.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  PGT Innovations (PGTI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 25.2
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book 4.5
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.2
Price to Free Cash Flow 21.6
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 17.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 5.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 17.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 186.5%
Total Debt to Equity 186.5%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Return On Total Capital 7.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Return On Equity 20%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.2%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.5%
EBITDA Margin 14.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Operating Margin 12.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Net Profit Margin 5.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

PGTI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PGTI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $459 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by PGT Innovations. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of PGT Innovations. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PGTI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.7% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.6%, whose default value for PGTI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of PGT Innovations, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of PGT Innovations.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PGTI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PGTI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.5% for PGT Innovations.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for PGT Innovations. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PGTI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PGTI are equal to 21.8%.

Life of production assets of 18.7 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in PGT Innovations operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PGTI is equal to 13.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $133 million for PGT Innovations - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 47.121 million for PGT Innovations is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of PGT Innovations at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ PGT meets 1Q profit forecasts   [May-04-17 06:28AM  Associated Press]
▶ PGT Innovations Announces Expansion Plans in Miami   [Apr-21-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ PGT misses Street 4Q forecasts   [06:37AM  Associated Press]
▶ PGT Glass Operations Leader Joins FloridaMakes Board   [Feb-02-17 09:52AM  Business Wire]
▶ Why Sarasota Countys biggest manufacturer is changing its name   [Dec-15-16 07:10AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ PGT Innovations Announces Transfer to NYSE   [Dec-14-16 04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ PGT Innovations Unites Three Powerful Brands   [09:34AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ PGT, Inc. Subsidiary to Acquire US Impact Systems   [Sep-06-16 04:47PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ PGT Reports 2016 Second Quarter Results   [06:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ PGT Reports 2016 First Quarter Results   [06:30AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ UM's Florida index outperforms S&P 1500   [07:00AM  at bizjournals.com]
Stock chart of PGTI Financial statements of PGTI Annual reports of PGTI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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