Intrinsic value of PGT Innovations - PGTI

Previous Close

$12.90

  Intrinsic Value

$12.35

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-4%

  Value-price divergence*

-17%

Previous close

$12.90

 
Intrinsic value

$12.35

 
Up/down potential

-4%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

-17%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PGTI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  17.69
  13.00
  12.20
  11.48
  10.83
  10.25
  9.72
  9.25
  8.83
  8.44
  8.10
  7.79
  7.51
  7.26
  7.03
  6.83
  6.65
  6.48
  6.33
  6.20
  6.08
  5.97
  5.88
  5.79
  5.71
  5.64
  5.57
  5.52
  5.47
  5.42
  5.38
Revenue, $m
  459
  519
  582
  649
  719
  793
  870
  950
  1,034
  1,121
  1,212
  1,307
  1,405
  1,507
  1,613
  1,723
  1,838
  1,957
  2,081
  2,210
  2,344
  2,484
  2,630
  2,782
  2,941
  3,107
  3,280
  3,461
  3,650
  3,848
  4,055
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  449
  503
  559
  619
  681
  746
  814
  885
  959
  1,036
  1,105
  1,188
  1,274
  1,364
  1,457
  1,554
  1,654
  1,759
  1,868
  1,982
  2,100
  2,224
  2,352
  2,486
  2,627
  2,773
  2,926
  3,086
  3,253
  3,428
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  403
  449
  503
  559
  619
  681
  746
  814
  885
  959
  1,036
  1,105
  1,188
  1,274
  1,364
  1,457
  1,554
  1,654
  1,759
  1,868
  1,982
  2,100
  2,224
  2,352
  2,486
  2,627
  2,773
  2,926
  3,086
  3,253
  3,428
Operating income, $m
  56
  69
  79
  89
  100
  112
  124
  136
  149
  163
  177
  202
  217
  233
  249
  266
  284
  302
  322
  341
  362
  384
  406
  430
  454
  480
  507
  535
  564
  595
  627
EBITDA, $m
  72
  92
  104
  115
  128
  141
  155
  169
  184
  200
  216
  232
  250
  268
  287
  307
  327
  348
  370
  393
  417
  442
  468
  495
  523
  553
  584
  616
  649
  685
  721
Interest expense (income), $m
  16
  18
  21
  24
  27
  31
  34
  38
  42
  46
  50
  55
  59
  64
  69
  74
  79
  85
  91
  97
  103
  109
  116
  123
  130
  138
  146
  155
  163
  172
  182
Earnings before tax, $m
  36
  51
  58
  65
  73
  81
  89
  98
  107
  117
  126
  147
  158
  169
  180
  192
  205
  218
  231
  245
  259
  275
  290
  307
  324
  342
  361
  380
  401
  422
  445
Tax expense, $m
  12
  14
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  26
  29
  31
  34
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  87
  92
  97
  103
  108
  114
  120
Net income, $m
  24
  37
  42
  48
  53
  59
  65
  72
  78
  85
  92
  108
  115
  123
  132
  140
  149
  159
  169
  179
  189
  200
  212
  224
  237
  250
  263
  278
  293
  308
  325

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  39
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  437
  450
  505
  563
  624
  688
  754
  824
  897
  973
  1,051
  1,133
  1,218
  1,307
  1,399
  1,494
  1,594
  1,697
  1,805
  1,916
  2,033
  2,154
  2,281
  2,413
  2,551
  2,694
  2,845
  3,002
  3,166
  3,337
  3,517
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  398
  450
  505
  563
  624
  688
  754
  824
  897
  973
  1,051
  1,133
  1,218
  1,307
  1,399
  1,494
  1,594
  1,697
  1,805
  1,916
  2,033
  2,154
  2,281
  2,413
  2,551
  2,694
  2,845
  3,002
  3,166
  3,337
  3,517
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.153
  1.153
  1.152
  1.153
  1.152
  1.153
  1.154
  1.153
  1.153
  1.152
  1.153
  1.154
  1.154
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
  1.153
Average production assets, $m
  178
  201
  226
  252
  279
  308
  337
  369
  401
  435
  470
  507
  545
  585
  626
  669
  713
  759
  807
  857
  909
  964
  1,020
  1,079
  1,141
  1,205
  1,273
  1,343
  1,416
  1,493
  1,573
Working capital, $m
  99
  68
  76
  85
  94
  104
  114
  124
  135
  147
  159
  171
  184
  197
  211
  226
  241
  256
  273
  289
  307
  325
  345
  364
  385
  407
  430
  453
  478
  504
  531
Total debt, $m
  248
  288
  330
  374
  420
  469
  520
  574
  629
  687
  747
  810
  875
  942
  1,013
  1,086
  1,162
  1,241
  1,323
  1,408
  1,497
  1,590
  1,687
  1,787
  1,893
  2,003
  2,117
  2,237
  2,363
  2,494
  2,631
Total liabilities, $m
  304
  344
  386
  430
  476
  525
  576
  630
  685
  743
  803
  866
  931
  998
  1,069
  1,142
  1,218
  1,297
  1,379
  1,464
  1,553
  1,646
  1,743
  1,843
  1,949
  2,059
  2,173
  2,293
  2,419
  2,550
  2,687
Total equity, $m
  133
  106
  119
  133
  147
  162
  178
  195
  212
  230
  248
  267
  288
  308
  330
  353
  376
  400
  426
  452
  480
  508
  538
  569
  602
  636
  671
  708
  747
  788
  830
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  437
  450
  505
  563
  623
  687
  754
  825
  897
  973
  1,051
  1,133
  1,219
  1,306
  1,399
  1,495
  1,594
  1,697
  1,805
  1,916
  2,033
  2,154
  2,281
  2,412
  2,551
  2,695
  2,844
  3,001
  3,166
  3,338
  3,517
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.865
  2.710
  2.770
  2.820
  2.860
  2.890
  2.920
  2.950
  2.970
  2.990
  3.010
  3.030
  3.040
  3.060
  3.070
  3.080
  3.090
  3.100
  3.110
  3.110
  3.120
  3.130
  3.130
  3.140
  3.140
  3.150
  3.150
  3.160
  3.160
  3.170
  3.170
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236
  0.236

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  24
  37
  42
  48
  53
  59
  65
  72
  78
  85
  92
  108
  115
  123
  132
  140
  149
  159
  169
  179
  189
  200
  212
  224
  237
  250
  263
  278
  293
  308
  325
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  16
  23
  24
  26
  28
  29
  31
  33
  35
  37
  39
  31
  33
  35
  38
  40
  43
  46
  49
  52
  55
  58
  61
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  85
  90
  95
Funds from operations, $m
  43
  60
  67
  74
  81
  88
  96
  105
  113
  122
  131
  138
  148
  159
  169
  181
  192
  205
  217
  230
  244
  258
  273
  289
  305
  322
  340
  358
  378
  398
  419
Change in working capital, $m
  -3
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  11
  12
  12
  13
  13
  14
  14
  15
  16
  16
  17
  18
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  25
  26
  27
Cash from operations, $m
  46
  53
  59
  65
  72
  79
  86
  94
  102
  111
  119
  126
  135
  145
  156
  166
  177
  189
  201
  214
  227
  240
  254
  269
  284
  300
  317
  335
  353
  372
  392
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -19
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -90
New CAPEX, $m
  -18
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -80
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -119
  -34
  -37
  -40
  -42
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -65
  -69
  -73
  -76
  -81
  -84
  -89
  -94
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -115
  -120
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
Free cash flow, $m
  -73
  19
  22
  25
  29
  33
  38
  43
  47
  53
  58
  61
  67
  73
  79
  86
  93
  100
  107
  115
  123
  131
  140
  149
  158
  167
  177
  188
  199
  210
  222
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  58
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  50
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  58
  60
  63
  65
  68
  70
  73
  76
  79
  82
  85
  89
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -22
  58
  64
  70
  76
  82
  89
  96
  103
  110
  118
  123
  132
  140
  149
  159
  169
  179
  189
  200
  212
  224
  236
  249
  263
  277
  292
  308
  324
  341
  359
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -26
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -40
  -42
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  39
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  85
  51
  56
  61
  67
  73
  79
  86
  93
  100
  104
  112
  120
  128
  136
  145
  154
  164
  174
  184
  195
  206
  218
  231
  243
  257
  271
  285
  301
  317
Discount rate, %
 
  8.10
  8.51
  8.93
  9.38
  9.85
  10.34
  10.85
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.19
  13.85
  14.55
  15.27
  16.04
  16.84
  17.68
  18.57
  19.49
  20.47
  21.49
  22.57
  23.69
  24.88
  26.12
  27.43
  28.80
  30.24
  31.75
  33.34
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  79
  43
  43
  43
  42
  41
  39
  36
  33
  31
  27
  24
  20
  17
  15
  12
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

PGT Innovations, Inc. manufactures and supplies residential impact-resistant windows and doors in the Southeastern United States, the Gulf Coast, Coastal mid-Atlantic, the Caribbean, Central America, and Canada. The company offers heavy-duty aluminum or vinyl frames with laminated glass to provide protection from hurricane-force winds and wind-borne debris; and impact-resistant vinyl window and door products for the mid- to high-end of the replacement market, primarily for single and multi-family homes and low to mid-rise condominiums. It also provides architectural systems products that provide protection from hurricane-force winds and wind-borne debris for mid- and high-rise buildings; high-end aluminum impact-resistant windows and doors; and non-impact-resistant aluminum frame windows and doors. In addition, the company offers non-glass vertical and horizontal sliding panels for porch enclosures, such as vinyl-glazed, aluminum-framed products used for enclosing screened-in porches that provide protection from inclement weather; and commercial storefront window system and entry doors. PGT Innovations, Inc. markets its products under the WinGuard, Eze-Breeze, SpectraGuard, PremierVue, WinGuard Vinyl, EnergyVue, Estate Collection, Sentinel, Estate Entrances, Commercial Series, and Targa names, as well as PGT Architectural Systems and PGT Commercial Storefront System brand names. It serves residential new construction, and repair and remodeling end markets through window distributors, building supply distributors, window replacement dealers, and enclosure contractors. The company was formerly known as PGT, Inc. and changed its name to PGT Innovations, Inc. in December 2016. PGT Innovations, Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in North Venice, Florida.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  PGT Innovations (PGTI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.4
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book 4.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 13.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 22.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 17.7%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 5.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 17.6%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 186.5%
Total Debt to Equity 186.5%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 8.9%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.6%
Return On Total Capital 7.1%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Return On Equity 20%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.2%
Asset Turnover 1.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 30.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 30.5%
EBITDA Margin 14.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.9%
Operating Margin 12.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 12%
Pre-Tax Margin 7.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Net Profit Margin 5.2%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Effective Tax Rate 33.3%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

PGTI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PGTI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $459 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by PGT Innovations. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of PGT Innovations. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PGTI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 13% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.1%, whose default value for PGTI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of PGT Innovations, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of PGT Innovations.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PGTI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 86.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PGTI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 7.3% for PGT Innovations.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for PGT Innovations. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PGTI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PGTI are equal to 38.8%.

Life of production assets of 16.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in PGT Innovations operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PGTI is equal to 13.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $133 million for PGT Innovations - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 47.121 million for PGT Innovations is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of PGT Innovations at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ PGT tops Street 2Q forecasts   [Aug-03-17 05:39PM  Associated Press]
▶ PGT Innovations Executives Ring NYSE Bell   [Aug-01-17 07:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ PGT meets 1Q profit forecasts   [May-04-17 06:28AM  Associated Press]
▶ PGT Innovations Announces Expansion Plans in Miami   [Apr-21-17 08:00AM  Business Wire]
▶ PGT misses Street 4Q forecasts   [06:37AM  Associated Press]
▶ PGT Glass Operations Leader Joins FloridaMakes Board   [Feb-02-17 09:52AM  Business Wire]
▶ Why Sarasota Countys biggest manufacturer is changing its name   [Dec-15-16 07:10AM  at bizjournals.com]
▶ PGT Innovations Announces Transfer to NYSE   [Dec-14-16 04:00PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ PGT Innovations Unites Three Powerful Brands   [09:34AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ PGT, Inc. Subsidiary to Acquire US Impact Systems   [Sep-06-16 04:47PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ PGT Reports 2016 Second Quarter Results   [06:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
Stock chart of PGTI Financial statements of PGTI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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