Intrinsic value of PHI - PHII

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$10.24

  Intrinsic Value

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  Value-price divergence*

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PHII stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.1

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -21.14
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  634
  647
  662
  679
  698
  719
  742
  767
  795
  824
  856
  890
  926
  964
  1,005
  1,048
  1,094
  1,143
  1,194
  1,249
  1,306
  1,367
  1,430
  1,498
  1,569
  1,643
  1,722
  1,805
  1,892
  1,983
  2,080
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  380
  389
  399
  410
  423
  436
  451
  467
  485
  503
  523
  544
  567
  591
  616
  643
  672
  702
  734
  768
  804
  841
  881
  922
  966
  1,012
  1,061
  1,112
  1,166
  1,223
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  275
  282
  289
  296
  303
  311
  319
  327
  335
  343
  352
  360
  369
  379
  388
  398
  408
  418
  428
  439
  450
  461
  473
  485
  497
  509
  522
  535
  548
  562
Total operating expenses, $m
  634
  655
  671
  688
  706
  726
  747
  770
  794
  820
  846
  875
  904
  936
  970
  1,004
  1,041
  1,080
  1,120
  1,162
  1,207
  1,254
  1,302
  1,354
  1,407
  1,463
  1,521
  1,583
  1,647
  1,714
  1,785
Operating income, $m
  0
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -8
  -7
  -5
  -2
  1
  5
  9
  15
  21
  28
  35
  44
  53
  63
  74
  86
  99
  113
  128
  144
  162
  180
  200
  221
  244
  269
  295
EBITDA, $m
  66
  60
  60
  62
  65
  68
  73
  78
  84
  91
  99
  108
  118
  129
  141
  154
  168
  183
  199
  217
  236
  256
  278
  301
  326
  352
  381
  411
  443
  477
  513
Interest expense (income), $m
  29
  31
  32
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  46
  48
  50
  53
  55
  58
  61
  64
  68
  71
  75
  79
  83
  88
  92
  97
  102
  108
  114
  120
Earnings before tax, $m
  -27
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -42
  -42
  -42
  -41
  -39
  -37
  -34
  -31
  -27
  -22
  -17
  -12
  -5
  2
  10
  18
  28
  38
  49
  61
  74
  88
  103
  119
  137
  155
  175
Tax expense, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  3
  5
  7
  10
  13
  16
  20
  24
  28
  32
  37
  42
  47
Net income, $m
  -27
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -42
  -42
  -42
  -41
  -39
  -37
  -34
  -31
  -27
  -22
  -17
  -12
  -5
  1
  7
  13
  20
  28
  36
  44
  54
  64
  75
  87
  100
  113
  128

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  292
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,448
  1,180
  1,207
  1,238
  1,273
  1,312
  1,354
  1,400
  1,450
  1,504
  1,562
  1,623
  1,689
  1,759
  1,834
  1,913
  1,997
  2,086
  2,179
  2,279
  2,383
  2,494
  2,610
  2,733
  2,862
  2,999
  3,142
  3,293
  3,452
  3,619
  3,795
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  1,156
  1,180
  1,207
  1,238
  1,273
  1,312
  1,354
  1,400
  1,450
  1,504
  1,562
  1,623
  1,689
  1,759
  1,834
  1,913
  1,997
  2,086
  2,179
  2,279
  2,383
  2,494
  2,610
  2,733
  2,862
  2,999
  3,142
  3,293
  3,452
  3,619
  3,795
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
  0.548
Average production assets, $m
  452
  461
  472
  484
  497
  512
  529
  547
  567
  588
  610
  634
  660
  687
  717
  747
  780
  815
  852
  890
  931
  974
  1,020
  1,068
  1,118
  1,172
  1,228
  1,287
  1,349
  1,414
  1,483
Working capital, $m
  465
  177
  181
  185
  190
  196
  203
  209
  217
  225
  234
  243
  253
  263
  274
  286
  299
  312
  326
  341
  357
  373
  390
  409
  428
  449
  470
  493
  516
  541
  568
Total debt, $m
  631
  649
  669
  692
  717
  746
  777
  811
  847
  887
  929
  974
  1,023
  1,074
  1,129
  1,187
  1,249
  1,314
  1,383
  1,455
  1,532
  1,613
  1,699
  1,789
  1,884
  1,984
  2,089
  2,200
  2,317
  2,440
  2,569
Total liabilities, $m
  849
  866
  886
  909
  934
  963
  994
  1,028
  1,064
  1,104
  1,146
  1,191
  1,240
  1,291
  1,346
  1,404
  1,466
  1,531
  1,600
  1,672
  1,749
  1,830
  1,916
  2,006
  2,101
  2,201
  2,306
  2,417
  2,534
  2,657
  2,786
Total equity, $m
  600
  314
  321
  329
  339
  349
  360
  372
  386
  400
  415
  432
  449
  468
  488
  509
  531
  555
  580
  606
  634
  663
  694
  727
  761
  798
  836
  876
  918
  963
  1,009
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,449
  1,180
  1,207
  1,238
  1,273
  1,312
  1,354
  1,400
  1,450
  1,504
  1,561
  1,623
  1,689
  1,759
  1,834
  1,913
  1,997
  2,086
  2,180
  2,278
  2,383
  2,493
  2,610
  2,733
  2,862
  2,999
  3,142
  3,293
  3,452
  3,620
  3,795
Debt-to-equity ratio
  1.052
  2.070
  2.080
  2.100
  2.120
  2.140
  2.160
  2.180
  2.200
  2.220
  2.240
  2.260
  2.280
  2.300
  2.310
  2.330
  2.350
  2.370
  2.390
  2.400
  2.420
  2.430
  2.450
  2.460
  2.470
  2.490
  2.500
  2.510
  2.520
  2.530
  2.540
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266
  0.266

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -27
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -42
  -42
  -42
  -41
  -39
  -37
  -34
  -31
  -27
  -22
  -17
  -12
  -5
  1
  7
  13
  20
  28
  36
  44
  54
  64
  75
  87
  100
  113
  128
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  66
  68
  69
  71
  73
  75
  78
  80
  83
  86
  90
  93
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  157
  164
  172
  181
  189
  198
  208
  218
Funds from operations, $m
  -35
  29
  29
  29
  31
  33
  36
  40
  44
  50
  56
  63
  70
  79
  88
  98
  110
  121
  132
  144
  157
  171
  186
  201
  218
  236
  256
  276
  298
  321
  346
Change in working capital, $m
  -34
  3
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  25
  26
Cash from operations, $m
  -1
  477
  24
  25
  26
  27
  30
  33
  37
  42
  47
  53
  60
  68
  77
  87
  97
  108
  118
  129
  141
  154
  168
  183
  199
  216
  234
  254
  274
  296
  320
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -66
  -68
  -69
  -71
  -73
  -75
  -78
  -80
  -83
  -86
  -90
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -120
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -189
  -198
  -208
New CAPEX, $m
  -82
  -9
  -11
  -12
  -14
  -15
  -17
  -18
  -20
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -69
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -75
  -75
  -79
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -92
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -124
  -130
  -136
  -143
  -150
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -180
  -189
  -198
  -208
  -217
  -228
  -240
  -251
  -263
  -277
Free cash flow, $m
  -76
  402
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -61
  -62
  -63
  -63
  -63
  -62
  -60
  -59
  -56
  -53
  -50
  -46
  -41
  -38
  -35
  -30
  -26
  -21
  -15
  -9
  -2
  6
  14
  23
  33
  43
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  77
  18
  20
  23
  26
  28
  31
  34
  37
  39
  42
  45
  48
  51
  55
  58
  62
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  129
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  0
  41
  42
  43
  43
  42
  41
  40
  37
  35
  32
  28
  23
  18
  13
  6
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  76
  18
  61
  65
  69
  71
  73
  75
  77
  76
  77
  77
  76
  74
  73
  71
  68
  65
  69
  73
  77
  81
  86
  90
  95
  100
  105
  111
  117
  123
  129
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  0
  420
  -34
  -34
  -34
  -33
  -31
  -29
  -26
  -23
  -19
  -15
  -10
  -5
  1
  8
  16
  24
  31
  38
  46
  55
  65
  75
  86
  98
  111
  125
  140
  155
  172
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  27
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  292
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  706
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  6
  12
  19
  26
  34
  43
  52
  62
  73
  85
  97
  111
  125
Discount rate, %
 
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.10
  8.51
  8.93
  9.38
  9.85
  10.34
  10.86
  11.40
  11.97
  12.57
  13.20
  13.86
  14.55
  15.28
  16.04
  16.85
  17.69
  18.57
  19.50
  20.48
  21.50
  22.58
  23.70
  24.89
  26.13
  27.44
  28.81
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  660
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  84.2
  70.9
  59.8
  50.6
  43.2
  37.1
  32.2
  28.3
  25.2
  22.7
  20.8
  19.3
  18.3
  17.7
  17.3
  17.3
  17.3
  17.3
  17.3
  17.3
  17.3
  17.3
  17.3
  17.3
  17.3
  17.3
  17.3
  17.3
  17.3

PHI, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation services to, from, and among offshore facilities for customers in the oil and gas exploration, development, and production industry in the United States and internationally. It operates through three business segments: Oil and Gas, Air Medical, and Technical Services. The Oil and Gas segment provides helicopter services primarily for the integrated and independent oil and gas exploration and production companies, and other offshore oil service companies for routine transportation of personnel and equipment, transportation of personnel during medical and safety emergencies, and evacuation personnel during the threat of hurricanes and other adverse weather conditions. The Air Medical segment provides air medical transportation services for hospitals and emergency service agencies in 19 states. The Technical Services segment provides helicopter repair and overhaul services for flight operations customers, as well as operates six aircraft for the National Science Foundation in Antarctica. As of December 31, 2015, the company owned or operated 265 aircraft, including 155 dedicated to Oil and Gas operations, 104 dedicated to Air Medical operations, and 6 dedicated to other operations. PHI, Inc. was founded in 1949 and is based in Lafayette, Louisiana.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  PHI (PHII)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -6
Price to Sales 0.3
Price to Book 0.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow -160.7
Price to Free Cash Flow -1.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -21.1%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 43.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -4.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 105.2%
Total Debt to Equity 105.2%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 0.1%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.4%
Return On Total Capital -2.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.1%
Return On Equity -4.4%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.9%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 6.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.7%
EBITDA Margin 10.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.6%
Operating Margin 0%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.2%
Pre-Tax Margin -4.3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 2.5%
Net Profit Margin -4.3%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1%
Effective Tax Rate 0%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 25%
Payout Ratio 0%

PHII stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PHII stock intrinsic value calculation we used $634 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by PHI. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of PHI. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PHII stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 7%, whose default value for PHII is calculated based on our internal credit rating of PHI, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of PHI.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PHII stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 58.8%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $268 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PHII stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4.9% for PHI.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for PHI. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PHII stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PHII are equal to 71.3%.

Life of production assets of 6.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in PHI operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PHII is equal to 27.3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $600 million for PHI - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 14.543 million for PHI is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of PHI at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.1 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ ETFs with exposure to PHI, Inc. : June 16, 2017   [Jun-16-17 04:12PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to PHI, Inc. : April 5, 2017   [Apr-05-17 05:17PM  Capital Cube]
▶ PHI Inc. reports 4Q loss   [Feb-27-17 06:58PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to PHI, Inc. : December 27, 2016   [Dec-27-16 01:38PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to PHI, Inc. : September 15, 2016   [Sep-15-16 10:31AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to PHI, Inc. : August 24, 2016   [Aug-24-16 12:11PM  Capital Cube]
▶ 10-Q for PHI, Inc.   [Aug-09  08:13PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-Q for PHI, Inc.   [May-09  08:09PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-K for PHI, Inc.   [Mar-02  07:08PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ 10-Q for PHI, Inc.   [Nov-09  07:09PM  Company Spotlight]
▶ PHI, Inc. -- Moody's rates PHI's unsecured notes B2   [Mar-05  10:49AM  at Moody's]
▶ PHI INC Files SEC form 10-K, Annual Report   [04:19PM  EDGAR Online]
▶ CHC Group On The IPO Launch Pad   [Jan-15  12:03PM  at Seeking Alpha]
▶ Is a Revenue Miss Coming for PHI?   [Aug-01  01:09AM  at Motley Fool]
Stock chart of PHII Financial statements of PHII Annual reports of PHII
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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