Intrinsic value of Panhandle Oil&Gas - PHX

Previous Close

$23.10

  Intrinsic Value

$1.73

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-93%

Previous close

$23.10

 
Intrinsic value

$1.73

 
Up/down potential

-93%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of PHX stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 0.4

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -31.58
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  47
  49
  51
  53
  55
  57
  59
  62
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  68
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  58
  39
  40
  41
  42
  43
  44
  46
  48
  49
  51
  53
  55
  58
  60
  63
  66
  68
  72
  75
  78
  82
  86
  90
  94
  98
  103
  108
  113
  119
  125
Operating income, $m
  -19
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
EBITDA, $m
  5
  26
  26
  27
  28
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
  78
  82
Interest expense (income), $m
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
Earnings before tax, $m
  -18
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
Tax expense, $m
  -8
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Net income, $m
  -10
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  198
  202
  207
  212
  218
  224
  232
  240
  248
  257
  267
  278
  289
  301
  314
  327
  342
  357
  373
  390
  408
  427
  447
  468
  490
  513
  538
  564
  591
  619
  649
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  198
  202
  207
  212
  218
  224
  232
  240
  248
  257
  267
  278
  289
  301
  314
  327
  342
  357
  373
  390
  408
  427
  447
  468
  490
  513
  538
  564
  591
  619
  649
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.197
  0.198
  0.198
  0.198
  0.197
  0.196
  0.198
  0.196
  0.198
  0.198
  0.199
  0.198
  0.197
  0.196
  0.197
  0.196
  0.196
  0.196
  0.196
  0.197
  0.196
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.196
  0.197
  0.197
  0.197
  0.196
  0.197
  0.197
Average production assets, $m
  207
  211
  216
  222
  228
  235
  242
  251
  259
  269
  279
  290
  302
  315
  328
  342
  357
  373
  390
  408
  426
  446
  467
  489
  512
  537
  562
  589
  618
  648
  679
Working capital, $m
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
Total debt, $m
  45
  47
  49
  51
  53
  56
  59
  62
  66
  70
  74
  78
  83
  88
  93
  99
  105
  112
  118
  125
  133
  141
  149
  158
  167
  177
  187
  198
  210
  221
  234
Total liabilities, $m
  83
  85
  87
  89
  91
  94
  97
  100
  104
  108
  112
  116
  121
  126
  131
  137
  143
  150
  156
  163
  171
  179
  187
  196
  205
  215
  225
  236
  248
  259
  272
Total equity, $m
  115
  117
  120
  123
  127
  130
  135
  139
  144
  150
  155
  161
  168
  175
  182
  190
  199
  207
  217
  227
  237
  248
  260
  272
  285
  298
  312
  327
  343
  360
  377
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  198
  202
  207
  212
  218
  224
  232
  239
  248
  258
  267
  277
  289
  301
  313
  327
  342
  357
  373
  390
  408
  427
  447
  468
  490
  513
  537
  563
  591
  619
  649
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.391
  0.400
  0.400
  0.410
  0.420
  0.430
  0.440
  0.450
  0.460
  0.470
  0.480
  0.490
  0.490
  0.500
  0.510
  0.520
  0.530
  0.540
  0.550
  0.550
  0.560
  0.570
  0.570
  0.580
  0.590
  0.590
  0.600
  0.610
  0.610
  0.620
  0.620
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581
  0.581

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -10
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  24
  25
  25
  26
  26
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  32
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  65
  69
  72
  75
  79
Funds from operations, $m
  22
  24
  25
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  75
Change in working capital, $m
  7
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from operations, $m
  15
  24
  24
  25
  26
  27
  27
  28
  29
  30
  31
  33
  34
  35
  37
  38
  40
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  68
  71
  74
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -69
  -72
  -75
New CAPEX, $m
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
Cash from investing activities, $m
  9
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -80
  -84
  -88
  -92
  -97
  -102
  -106
Free cash flow, $m
  24
  -4
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -21
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -20
  5
  5
  6
  6
  8
  8
  8
  10
  10
  11
  11
  13
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  21
  21
  22
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  3
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  12
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
Discount rate, %
 
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.52
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.43
  17.25
  18.11
  19.01
  19.96
  20.96
  22.01
  23.11
  24.27
  25.48
  26.75
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  99.3
  98.4
  97.5
  96.6
  95.6
  94.5
  93.4
  92.2
  91.0
  89.8
  88.5
  87.3
  86.0
  84.7
  83.4
  82.1
  80.8
  79.5
  78.2
  76.9
  75.7
  74.4
  73.1
  71.9
  70.6
  69.4
  68.2
  67.0
  65.8
  64.6

Panhandle Oil and Gas Inc. is engaged in the acquisition, management and development of non-operated oil and natural gas properties, including wells located on its mineral and leasehold acreage. The Company's mineral and leasehold properties are located primarily in Arkansas, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma and Texas, with properties also located in various other states. The Company's oil, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and natural gas production is primarily from wells located in Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas. As of September 30, 2015, the Company's principal properties consisted of perpetual ownership of 255,411 net mineral acres, held principally in Arkansas, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Texas and six other states; leases on 19,575 net acres primarily in Oklahoma, and working interests, royalty interests, or both, in 6,195 producing oil and natural gas wells, and 65 wells in the process of being drilled or completed.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Panhandle Oil&Gas (PHX)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -38.3
Price to Sales 9.8
Price to Book 3.3
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 25.6
Price to Free Cash Flow 34.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -31.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -87.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -31.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity 39.1%
Total Debt to Equity 39.1%
Interest Coverage -17
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -4.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.2%
Return On Total Capital -5.7%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Return On Equity -8.3%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.4%
Asset Turnover 0.2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 61.5%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 69.7%
EBITDA Margin 17.9%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 52.8%
Operating Margin -48.7%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. -1%
Pre-Tax Margin -46.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.5%
Net Profit Margin -25.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.6%
Effective Tax Rate 44.4%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 37.5%
Payout Ratio -30%

PHX stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PHX stock intrinsic value calculation we used $39 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Panhandle Oil&Gas. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Panhandle Oil&Gas. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PHX stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 6.5%, whose default value for PHX is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Panhandle Oil&Gas, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Panhandle Oil&Gas.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PHX stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 97.4%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PHX stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for Panhandle Oil&Gas.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Panhandle Oil&Gas. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PHX stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PHX are equal to 530.8%.

Life of production assets of 8.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Panhandle Oil&Gas operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PHX is equal to 5.1%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $115 million for Panhandle Oil&Gas - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 16.671 million for Panhandle Oil&Gas is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Panhandle Oil&Gas at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.4 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Panhandle Oil & Gas posts 3Q profit   [Aug-07-17 07:27PM  Associated Press]
▶ Panhandle Oil and Gas Inc. Announces New Director   [Aug-01-17 12:26PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Panhandle Oil and Gas Inc. Announces Dividend Payment   [Jul-24-17 01:13PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Cars and Small-but-Strong Energy Stocks in Play   [May-19-17 05:20PM  TheStreet.com]
▶ Panhandle Oil & Gas posts 2Q profit   [May-05-17 05:09PM  Associated Press]
▶ CEO Invests in Panhandle Oil and Gas   [Apr-03-17 03:19PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ Webcast-OGIS New York for Panhandle Oil & Gas, Inc.   [Mar-08-17 05:56PM  at Company Spotlight]
▶ Panhandle Oil & Gas reports 1Q loss   [05:06PM  Associated Press]
▶ Panhandle Oil and Gas Inc. Announces Dividend Payment   [Dec-14-16 11:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Panhandle Oil And Gas Inc. Announces Executive Changes   [Dec-13-16 08:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Panhandle Oil and Gas Inc. Announces Dividend Payment   [Oct-28-16 07:00AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Panhandle Oil and Gas Inc. Announces Dividend Payment   [Jul-26-16 12:40PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Panhandle Oil and Gas Inc. Announces Dividend Payment   [May-18-16 07:30AM  PR Newswire]
▶ Panhandle Oil and Gas Inc. Announces President to Retire   [Mar-14-16 05:39PM  PR Newswire]
▶ Panhandle Oil and Gas Inc. Announces Operations Update   [Jan-04-16 03:39PM  PR Newswire]
Financial statements of PHX
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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