Intrinsic value of PJT Partners - PJT

Previous Close

$37.69

  Intrinsic Value

$13.01

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-65%

  Value-price divergence*

+5000%

Previous close

$37.69

 
Intrinsic value

$13.01

 
Up/down potential

-65%

 
Rating

str. sell

 
Value-price divergence*

+5000%

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as PJT.

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PJT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  22.91
  5.20
  5.18
  5.16
  5.15
  5.13
  5.12
  5.11
  5.10
  5.09
  5.08
  5.07
  5.06
  5.06
  5.05
  5.05
  5.04
  5.04
  5.03
  5.03
  5.03
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.02
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
  5.01
Revenue, $m
  499
  525
  552
  581
  611
  642
  675
  709
  745
  783
  823
  865
  908
  954
  1,003
  1,053
  1,106
  1,162
  1,220
  1,282
  1,346
  1,414
  1,485
  1,560
  1,638
  1,720
  1,806
  1,897
  1,992
  2,092
  2,196
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  315
  331
  348
  365
  384
  403
  423
  444
  467
  490
  507
  533
  560
  588
  618
  649
  682
  716
  752
  790
  829
  871
  915
  961
  1,009
  1,059
  1,113
  1,168
  1,227
  1,288
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  168
  172
  177
  181
  186
  190
  195
  200
  205
  210
  215
  221
  226
  232
  238
  243
  250
  256
  262
  269
  275
  282
  289
  297
  304
  312
  319
  327
  336
  344
Total operating expenses, $m
  460
  483
  503
  525
  546
  570
  593
  618
  644
  672
  700
  722
  754
  786
  820
  856
  892
  932
  972
  1,014
  1,059
  1,104
  1,153
  1,204
  1,258
  1,313
  1,371
  1,432
  1,495
  1,563
  1,632
Operating income, $m
  39
  42
  49
  56
  64
  73
  82
  91
  101
  112
  123
  142
  155
  168
  183
  198
  214
  231
  249
  268
  288
  309
  332
  355
  380
  407
  435
  465
  496
  529
  564
EBITDA, $m
  53
  55
  62
  70
  78
  87
  96
  106
  116
  127
  139
  152
  165
  179
  194
  209
  226
  243
  262
  282
  302
  324
  348
  372
  398
  426
  455
  485
  518
  552
  588
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  0
  -1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  7
  8
  10
  11
  13
  15
  16
  18
  20
  22
  24
  27
  29
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
Earnings before tax, $m
  15
  42
  50
  57
  64
  71
  79
  87
  96
  105
  115
  133
  144
  156
  168
  182
  196
  211
  227
  243
  261
  280
  300
  321
  343
  367
  392
  418
  446
  476
  507
Tax expense, $m
  10
  11
  14
  15
  17
  19
  21
  23
  26
  28
  31
  36
  39
  42
  45
  49
  53
  57
  61
  66
  70
  76
  81
  87
  93
  99
  106
  113
  121
  128
  137
Net income, $m
  -3
  30
  37
  41
  46
  52
  57
  63
  70
  77
  84
  97
  105
  114
  123
  133
  143
  154
  165
  178
  191
  204
  219
  234
  251
  268
  286
  305
  326
  347
  370

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  152
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  590
  621
  653
  686
  722
  759
  798
  838
  881
  926
  973
  1,022
  1,074
  1,128
  1,185
  1,245
  1,308
  1,374
  1,443
  1,515
  1,591
  1,671
  1,755
  1,843
  1,936
  2,033
  2,135
  2,242
  2,354
  2,472
  2,596
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  438
  621
  653
  686
  722
  759
  798
  838
  881
  926
  973
  1,022
  1,074
  1,128
  1,185
  1,245
  1,308
  1,374
  1,443
  1,515
  1,591
  1,671
  1,755
  1,843
  1,936
  2,033
  2,135
  2,242
  2,354
  2,472
  2,596
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.139
  0.845
  0.845
  0.847
  0.846
  0.846
  0.846
  0.846
  0.846
  0.846
  0.846
  0.846
  0.845
  0.846
  0.846
  0.846
  0.846
  0.846
  0.845
  0.846
  0.846
  0.846
  0.846
  0.846
  0.846
  0.846
  0.846
  0.846
  0.846
  0.846
  0.846
Average production assets, $m
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  69
  73
  77
  80
  85
  89
  93
  98
  103
  108
  114
  119
  125
  132
  138
  145
  153
  160
  168
  177
  186
  195
  205
  215
  226
  237
Working capital, $m
  0
  -52
  -55
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -71
  -75
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -141
  -148
  -156
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -220
Total debt, $m
  0
  -41
  -12
  19
  50
  84
  119
  155
  194
  234
  276
  321
  367
  416
  468
  521
  578
  637
  699
  765
  833
  905
  981
  1,060
  1,143
  1,231
  1,322
  1,419
  1,520
  1,626
  1,738
Total liabilities, $m
  599
  558
  587
  618
  649
  683
  718
  754
  793
  833
  875
  920
  966
  1,015
  1,067
  1,120
  1,177
  1,236
  1,298
  1,364
  1,432
  1,504
  1,580
  1,659
  1,742
  1,830
  1,921
  2,018
  2,119
  2,225
  2,337
Total equity, $m
  -9
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  80
  84
  88
  93
  97
  102
  107
  113
  119
  124
  131
  137
  144
  152
  159
  167
  176
  184
  194
  203
  213
  224
  235
  247
  260
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  590
  620
  652
  687
  721
  759
  798
  838
  881
  926
  972
  1,022
  1,073
  1,128
  1,186
  1,244
  1,308
  1,373
  1,442
  1,516
  1,591
  1,671
  1,756
  1,843
  1,936
  2,033
  2,134
  2,242
  2,354
  2,472
  2,597
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.000
  -0.650
  -0.180
  0.270
  0.700
  1.100
  1.490
  1.850
  2.200
  2.530
  2.840
  3.140
  3.420
  3.690
  3.950
  4.190
  4.420
  4.640
  4.850
  5.050
  5.240
  5.420
  5.590
  5.750
  5.910
  6.050
  6.190
  6.330
  6.460
  6.580
  6.690
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.368
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  -3
  30
  37
  41
  46
  52
  57
  63
  70
  77
  84
  97
  105
  114
  123
  133
  143
  154
  165
  178
  191
  204
  219
  234
  251
  268
  286
  305
  326
  347
  370
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  14
  13
  13
  13
  14
  14
  14
  15
  15
  16
  16
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  20
  22
  23
  24
Funds from operations, $m
  119
  43
  50
  55
  60
  66
  72
  78
  85
  92
  100
  106
  115
  124
  134
  144
  155
  166
  179
  191
  205
  220
  235
  251
  268
  286
  306
  326
  347
  370
  394
Change in working capital, $m
  2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -10
Cash from operations, $m
  117
  46
  53
  58
  63
  69
  75
  82
  89
  96
  104
  110
  119
  129
  138
  149
  160
  172
  184
  198
  212
  226
  242
  259
  276
  295
  314
  335
  357
  380
  404
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -20
  -22
  -23
New CAPEX, $m
  -13
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -12
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -30
  -33
  -34
Free cash flow, $m
  105
  38
  44
  49
  54
  59
  65
  71
  77
  84
  91
  97
  105
  114
  123
  133
  143
  154
  166
  178
  191
  205
  219
  235
  251
  268
  286
  306
  326
  348
  370
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  0
  -41
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  41
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -29
  0
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  51
  54
  56
  59
  62
  65
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  74
  38
  73
  79
  85
  92
  100
  107
  116
  124
  133
  141
  152
  163
  174
  186
  199
  213
  228
  243
  259
  277
  295
  314
  334
  356
  378
  402
  427
  454
  482
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -102
  -71
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -33
  70
  76
  82
  89
  96
  103
  111
  120
  129
  136
  146
  157
  169
  180
  193
  207
  221
  236
  252
  269
  286
  305
  325
  346
  368
  391
  416
  442
  470
Discount rate, %
 
  5.90
  6.20
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.53
  7.91
  8.30
  8.72
  9.15
  9.61
  10.09
  10.60
  11.13
  11.68
  12.27
  12.88
  13.52
  14.20
  14.91
  15.65
  16.44
  17.26
  18.12
  19.03
  19.98
  20.98
  22.03
  23.13
  24.29
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -31
  62
  63
  63
  63
  62
  61
  59
  56
  54
  50
  46
  42
  38
  34
  30
  26
  23
  19
  16
  13
  10
  8
  6
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

PJT Partners Inc. provides various strategic advisory, restructuring and special situations, and fund placement and secondary advisory services to corporations, financial sponsors, institutional investors, and governments worldwide. It offers a range of financial advisory and transaction execution capability, including mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures, minority investments, asset swaps, divestitures, takeover defenses, corporate finance advisory, private placements, and distressed sales. The company also advices companies, creditors, and financial sponsors on recapitalizations, reorganizations, exchange offers, debt repurchases, capital raises, and distressed mergers and acquisitions. In addition, it offers fund placement and secondary advisory services for alternative investment managers, including private equity funds, real estate funds, and hedge funds. The company was formerly known as Blackstone Advisory Inc. and changed its name to PJT Partners Inc. in March 2015. PJT Partners Inc. was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  PJT Partners (PJT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio -226.1
Price to Sales 1.4
Price to Book -75.4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 5.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 6.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 22.9%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -62.9%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate NaN%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio NaN
Current Ratio NaN
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 0%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets -0.6%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.9%
Return On Total Capital 5%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Equity 5%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Asset Turnover 0.9
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 0%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0%
EBITDA Margin 5.8%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4%
Operating Margin 7.8%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.3%
Pre-Tax Margin 3%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 1.2%
Net Profit Margin -0.6%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 0.8%
Effective Tax Rate 66.7%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 38.9%
Payout Ratio -133.3%

PJT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PJT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $499 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by PJT Partners. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of PJT Partners. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PJT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 5.2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 5.9%, whose default value for PJT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of PJT Partners, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of PJT Partners.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PJT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 60.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $164 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PJT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for PJT Partners.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for PJT Partners. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PJT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PJT are equal to 10.8%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in PJT Partners operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PJT is equal to -10%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-9 million for PJT Partners - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 34.044 million for PJT Partners is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of PJT Partners at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.3 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ PJT Partners posts 2Q profit   [Aug-02-17 10:06PM  Associated Press]
▶ PJT Partners posts 2Q profit   [07:01AM  Associated Press]
▶ PJT's Coleman Says Puerto Rico Board Is Breaking the Law   [Jun-28-17 03:09PM  Bloomberg Video]
▶ ETFs with exposure to PJT Partners, Inc. : June 6, 2017   [Jun-06-17 11:47AM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to PJT Partners, Inc. : May 26, 2017   [May-26-17 01:22PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to PJT Partners, Inc. : May 15, 2017   [May-15-17 04:22PM  Capital Cube]
▶ PJT Partners posts 1Q profit   [May-02-17 07:27AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to PJT Partners, Inc. : April 26, 2017   [Apr-26-17 03:31PM  Capital Cube]
▶ Weekly CEO Buys Highlights   [Mar-27-17 12:11PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ PJT Partners posts 4Q profit   [08:36AM  Associated Press]
▶ Here is What Hedge Funds Think About PJT Partners Inc (PJT)   [Dec-11-16 05:45AM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ [$$] Brazil's Telecom Oi Hires Laplace as Financial Adviser   [Nov-22-16 08:49AM  at The Wall Street Journal]
Stock chart of PJT Financial statements of PJT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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