Intrinsic value of PerkinElmer - PKI

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$57.22

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$57.22

 
Intrinsic value

$45.23

 
Up/down potential

-21%

 
Rating

sell

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PKI stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 6.3

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  0.52
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  2,116
  2,158
  2,208
  2,265
  2,328
  2,399
  2,476
  2,561
  2,652
  2,750
  2,856
  2,969
  3,089
  3,218
  3,354
  3,499
  3,652
  3,814
  3,986
  4,167
  4,359
  4,561
  4,774
  4,999
  5,235
  5,484
  5,747
  6,023
  6,314
  6,619
  6,941
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,897
  1,935
  1,979
  2,029
  2,083
  2,143
  2,209
  2,280
  2,356
  2,438
  2,300
  2,394
  2,493
  2,599
  2,711
  2,829
  2,955
  3,088
  3,229
  3,377
  3,534
  3,699
  3,873
  4,056
  4,249
  4,452
  4,666
  4,892
  5,129
  5,378
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,832
  1,897
  1,935
  1,979
  2,029
  2,083
  2,143
  2,209
  2,280
  2,356
  2,438
  2,300
  2,394
  2,493
  2,599
  2,711
  2,829
  2,955
  3,088
  3,229
  3,377
  3,534
  3,699
  3,873
  4,056
  4,249
  4,452
  4,666
  4,892
  5,129
  5,378
Operating income, $m
  283
  261
  273
  285
  300
  316
  333
  352
  373
  395
  418
  669
  696
  725
  755
  788
  823
  859
  898
  939
  982
  1,027
  1,075
  1,126
  1,179
  1,235
  1,294
  1,357
  1,422
  1,491
  1,563
EBITDA, $m
  383
  507
  519
  533
  547
  564
  582
  602
  624
  647
  672
  698
  726
  757
  789
  823
  859
  897
  937
  980
  1,025
  1,072
  1,123
  1,175
  1,231
  1,290
  1,351
  1,416
  1,485
  1,556
  1,632
Interest expense (income), $m
  31
  37
  38
  40
  42
  44
  47
  49
  52
  55
  59
  63
  67
  71
  75
  80
  85
  91
  96
  102
  109
  115
  123
  130
  138
  146
  155
  164
  174
  184
  195
Earnings before tax, $m
  244
  225
  234
  245
  258
  271
  286
  303
  320
  339
  360
  606
  629
  654
  680
  708
  737
  769
  801
  836
  873
  912
  953
  996
  1,041
  1,089
  1,139
  1,192
  1,248
  1,307
  1,369
Tax expense, $m
  28
  61
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
  82
  86
  92
  97
  164
  170
  177
  184
  191
  199
  208
  216
  226
  236
  246
  257
  269
  281
  294
  308
  322
  337
  353
  370
Net income, $m
  234
  164
  171
  179
  188
  198
  209
  221
  234
  248
  262
  442
  459
  477
  496
  517
  538
  561
  585
  611
  637
  666
  696
  727
  760
  795
  832
  870
  911
  954
  999

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  359
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  4,277
  3,997
  4,089
  4,194
  4,312
  4,443
  4,586
  4,742
  4,911
  5,093
  5,289
  5,498
  5,721
  5,959
  6,211
  6,479
  6,763
  7,064
  7,382
  7,717
  8,072
  8,446
  8,841
  9,257
  9,695
  10,156
  10,642
  11,154
  11,692
  12,258
  12,854
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  3,918
  3,997
  4,089
  4,194
  4,312
  4,443
  4,586
  4,742
  4,911
  5,093
  5,289
  5,498
  5,721
  5,959
  6,211
  6,479
  6,763
  7,064
  7,382
  7,717
  8,072
  8,446
  8,841
  9,257
  9,695
  10,156
  10,642
  11,154
  11,692
  12,258
  12,854
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
  0.540
Average production assets, $m
  595
  606
  620
  636
  654
  674
  696
  720
  745
  773
  803
  834
  868
  904
  942
  983
  1,026
  1,072
  1,120
  1,171
  1,225
  1,282
  1,341
  1,405
  1,471
  1,541
  1,615
  1,692
  1,774
  1,860
  1,950
Working capital, $m
  587
  233
  238
  245
  251
  259
  267
  277
  286
  297
  308
  321
  334
  348
  362
  378
  394
  412
  430
  450
  471
  493
  516
  540
  565
  592
  621
  650
  682
  715
  750
Total debt, $m
  1,046
  1,089
  1,139
  1,196
  1,260
  1,331
  1,409
  1,493
  1,585
  1,684
  1,790
  1,903
  2,024
  2,153
  2,289
  2,435
  2,589
  2,752
  2,924
  3,106
  3,298
  3,501
  3,715
  3,940
  4,178
  4,428
  4,691
  4,968
  5,260
  5,567
  5,890
Total liabilities, $m
  2,123
  2,166
  2,216
  2,273
  2,337
  2,408
  2,486
  2,570
  2,662
  2,761
  2,867
  2,980
  3,101
  3,230
  3,366
  3,512
  3,666
  3,829
  4,001
  4,183
  4,375
  4,578
  4,792
  5,017
  5,255
  5,505
  5,768
  6,045
  6,337
  6,644
  6,967
Total equity, $m
  2,154
  1,831
  1,873
  1,921
  1,975
  2,035
  2,100
  2,172
  2,249
  2,333
  2,422
  2,518
  2,620
  2,729
  2,845
  2,967
  3,098
  3,235
  3,381
  3,535
  3,697
  3,868
  4,049
  4,240
  4,440
  4,652
  4,874
  5,108
  5,355
  5,614
  5,887
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  4,277
  3,997
  4,089
  4,194
  4,312
  4,443
  4,586
  4,742
  4,911
  5,094
  5,289
  5,498
  5,721
  5,959
  6,211
  6,479
  6,764
  7,064
  7,382
  7,718
  8,072
  8,446
  8,841
  9,257
  9,695
  10,157
  10,642
  11,153
  11,692
  12,258
  12,854
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.486
  0.600
  0.610
  0.620
  0.640
  0.650
  0.670
  0.690
  0.700
  0.720
  0.740
  0.760
  0.770
  0.790
  0.800
  0.820
  0.840
  0.850
  0.860
  0.880
  0.890
  0.900
  0.920
  0.930
  0.940
  0.950
  0.960
  0.970
  0.980
  0.990
  1.000
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458
  0.458

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  234
  164
  171
  179
  188
  198
  209
  221
  234
  248
  262
  442
  459
  477
  496
  517
  538
  561
  585
  611
  637
  666
  696
  727
  760
  795
  832
  870
  911
  954
  999
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  100
  246
  247
  247
  248
  249
  249
  250
  251
  252
  253
  29
  31
  32
  33
  35
  36
  38
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  62
  65
  69
Funds from operations, $m
  316
  410
  418
  426
  436
  447
  458
  471
  485
  500
  516
  472
  490
  509
  530
  551
  574
  599
  625
  652
  680
  711
  743
  776
  812
  849
  889
  930
  974
  1,019
  1,068
Change in working capital, $m
  -35
  5
  5
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
Cash from operations, $m
  351
  377
  412
  420
  429
  439
  450
  462
  475
  489
  504
  460
  477
  495
  515
  536
  558
  581
  606
  632
  660
  689
  720
  752
  786
  822
  860
  900
  942
  986
  1,033
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -21
  -21
  -22
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -62
  -65
New CAPEX, $m
  -32
  -11
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -41
  -43
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -101
  -32
  -35
  -38
  -40
  -43
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -63
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -122
  -128
  -135
  -142
  -148
  -155
Free cash flow, $m
  250
  344
  377
  382
  389
  396
  405
  414
  424
  435
  447
  400
  414
  429
  445
  462
  480
  500
  520
  542
  565
  589
  615
  642
  670
  701
  732
  766
  801
  838
  877
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  63
  44
  50
  57
  64
  71
  78
  85
  92
  99
  106
  113
  121
  129
  137
  145
  154
  163
  172
  182
  192
  203
  214
  225
  238
  250
  263
  277
  292
  307
  323
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -137
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -84
  44
  50
  57
  64
  71
  78
  85
  92
  99
  106
  113
  121
  129
  137
  145
  154
  163
  172
  182
  192
  203
  214
  225
  238
  250
  263
  277
  292
  307
  323
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  152
  389
  427
  439
  453
  467
  482
  498
  516
  534
  553
  513
  535
  557
  582
  607
  634
  662
  692
  724
  757
  792
  829
  867
  908
  951
  996
  1,043
  1,093
  1,145
  1,200
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -44
  -35
  -42
  -48
  -54
  -60
  -66
  -72
  -77
  -83
  -90
  -96
  -102
  -109
  -116
  -123
  -130
  -138
  -146
  -154
  -162
  -171
  -181
  -190
  -201
  -211
  -223
  -234
  -247
  -259
  -273
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  358
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  712
  385
  391
  399
  407
  417
  427
  438
  450
  464
  417
  432
  449
  466
  484
  504
  525
  547
  570
  595
  620
  648
  677
  707
  739
  773
  809
  846
  886
  927
Discount rate, %
 
  4.40
  4.62
  4.85
  5.09
  5.35
  5.62
  5.90
  6.19
  6.50
  6.83
  7.17
  7.53
  7.90
  8.30
  8.71
  9.15
  9.60
  10.08
  10.59
  11.12
  11.67
  12.26
  12.87
  13.51
  14.19
  14.90
  15.64
  16.43
  17.25
  18.11
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  682
  352
  339
  327
  314
  300
  286
  271
  256
  240
  195
  181
  167
  153
  138
  124
  110
  97
  84
  72
  61
  51
  42
  34
  27
  21
  16
  12
  9
  6
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

PerkinElmer, Inc. provides products, services, and solutions to the diagnostics, research, environmental, industrial, and laboratory services markets worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Human Health and Environmental Health. The Human Health segment develops diagnostics, tools, and applications to help detect diseases earlier, and to accelerate the discovery and development of critical new therapies. It provides early detection for genetic disorders from pregnancy to early childhood, as well as flat panel X-ray detectors and infectious disease testing for the diagnostics market; and a suite of solutions, including reagents, liquid handling systems, and detection and imaging technologies that enable scientists to enhance life sciences research and drug discovery processes. This segmentÂ’s research portfolio includes instrumentation for automation and detection solutions, and in vitro and ex vivo, as well as in vivo imaging and analysis hardware and software; and a portfolio of consumable products, including drug discovery and research reagents. The Environmental Health segment provides products, services, and solutions to facilitate the creation of safer food and consumer products. It develops and provides analytical technologies, solutions, and services that enable its customers to understand the characterization and health of various aspects, including air, water, and soil. This segment also provides analytical instrumentation for the industrial market, which includes the chemical, electronics, energy, food, lubricant, petrochemical, and polymer industries; and laboratory services. The company serves pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, laboratories, academic and research institutions, public health authorities, private healthcare organizations, doctors, and government agencies. PerkinElmer, Inc. was founded in 1931 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  PerkinElmer (PKI)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 26.8
Price to Sales 3
Price to Book 2.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 17.9
Price to Free Cash Flow 19.7
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 0.5%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 14.3%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -3.9%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 359
Current Ratio 0.3
LT Debt to Equity 48.5%
Total Debt to Equity 48.6%
Interest Coverage 9
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 6.2%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.5%
Return On Total Capital 7.4%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.5%
Return On Equity 11%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Asset Turnover 0.5
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 47.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 46.2%
EBITDA Margin 17.7%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16%
Operating Margin 13.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.6%
Pre-Tax Margin 11.5%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.7%
Net Profit Margin 11.1%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.4%
Effective Tax Rate 11.5%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.8%
Payout Ratio 13.2%

PKI stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PKI stock intrinsic value calculation we used $2116 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by PerkinElmer. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of PerkinElmer. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PKI stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.4%, whose default value for PKI is calculated based on our internal credit rating of PerkinElmer, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of PerkinElmer.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PKI stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 88.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $0 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PKI stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 3.5% for PerkinElmer.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for PerkinElmer. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PKI stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PKI are equal to 28.1%.

Life of production assets of 28.4 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in PerkinElmer operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PKI is equal to 10.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $2154 million for PerkinElmer - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 110.059 million for PerkinElmer is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of PerkinElmer at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.3 billion.


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COMPANY NEWS

▶ PerkinElmer to Hold Earnings Call on Thursday, May 4, 2017   [Apr-07-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ PerkinElmer misses Street 4Q forecasts   [04:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ PerkinElmer Board Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Jan-27-17 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ PerkinElmer to Present at Citi Global Healthcare Conference   [Nov-21-16 04:15PM  Business Wire]
▶ PerkinElmer Board Declares Quarterly Dividend   [Oct-26-16 04:23PM  Business Wire]
▶ PerkinElmer Elects Frank Witney to Board of Directors   [Jul-27-16 04:15PM  Business Wire]
Stock chart of PKI Financial statements of PKI
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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