Intrinsic value of Park-Ohio Holdings - PKOH

Previous Close

$40.15

  Intrinsic Value

$85.90

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. buy

+114%

Previous close

$40.15

 
Intrinsic value

$85.90

 
Up/down potential

+114%

 
Rating

str. buy

We calculate the intrinsic value of PKOH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -12.77
  12.50
  11.75
  11.08
  10.47
  9.92
  9.43
  8.99
  8.59
  8.23
  7.91
  7.62
  7.35
  7.12
  6.91
  6.72
  6.54
  6.39
  6.25
  6.13
  6.01
  5.91
  5.82
  5.74
  5.66
  5.60
  5.54
  5.48
  5.44
  5.39
  5.35
Revenue, $m
  1,277
  1,437
  1,605
  1,783
  1,970
  2,165
  2,369
  2,582
  2,804
  3,035
  3,275
  3,524
  3,783
  4,053
  4,333
  4,624
  4,926
  5,241
  5,568
  5,910
  6,265
  6,635
  7,021
  7,424
  7,845
  8,284
  8,743
  9,223
  9,724
  10,248
  10,797
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  1,213
  1,354
  1,503
  1,660
  1,824
  1,995
  2,173
  2,359
  2,553
  2,754
  2,954
  3,171
  3,397
  3,631
  3,875
  4,129
  4,393
  4,667
  4,953
  5,251
  5,562
  5,885
  6,223
  6,576
  6,944
  7,328
  7,730
  8,150
  8,590
  9,050
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  135
  139
  142
  146
  149
  153
  157
  161
  165
  169
  173
  178
  182
  187
  191
  196
  201
  206
  211
  216
  222
  227
  233
  239
  245
  251
  257
  264
  270
  277
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,208
  1,348
  1,493
  1,645
  1,806
  1,973
  2,148
  2,330
  2,520
  2,718
  2,923
  3,127
  3,349
  3,579
  3,818
  4,066
  4,325
  4,594
  4,873
  5,164
  5,467
  5,784
  6,112
  6,456
  6,815
  7,189
  7,579
  7,987
  8,414
  8,860
  9,327
Operating income, $m
  69
  88
  112
  138
  164
  192
  222
  252
  284
  318
  352
  397
  435
  474
  515
  557
  601
  647
  695
  745
  797
  852
  909
  968
  1,031
  1,096
  1,164
  1,235
  1,310
  1,388
  1,470
EBITDA, $m
  99
  120
  147
  175
  204
  235
  268
  302
  338
  375
  413
  453
  495
  538
  583
  631
  680
  731
  784
  839
  897
  958
  1,021
  1,087
  1,155
  1,228
  1,303
  1,382
  1,465
  1,551
  1,642
Interest expense (income), $m
  26
  25
  30
  36
  41
  47
  53
  60
  67
  74
  81
  89
  97
  105
  114
  123
  132
  142
  152
  162
  173
  185
  197
  209
  222
  235
  249
  264
  279
  295
  312
Earnings before tax, $m
  41
  63
  82
  102
  123
  145
  168
  192
  217
  244
  271
  308
  338
  369
  401
  434
  469
  505
  543
  583
  624
  667
  712
  759
  809
  860
  915
  971
  1,031
  1,093
  1,158
Tax expense, $m
  9
  17
  22
  28
  33
  39
  45
  52
  59
  66
  73
  83
  91
  100
  108
  117
  127
  136
  147
  157
  169
  180
  192
  205
  218
  232
  247
  262
  278
  295
  313
Net income, $m
  32
  46
  60
  75
  90
  106
  123
  140
  159
  178
  198
  225
  247
  269
  292
  317
  342
  369
  397
  425
  456
  487
  520
  554
  590
  628
  668
  709
  752
  798
  845

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  64
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  974
  1,024
  1,144
  1,271
  1,404
  1,543
  1,689
  1,841
  1,999
  2,163
  2,334
  2,512
  2,697
  2,889
  3,088
  3,295
  3,511
  3,735
  3,969
  4,212
  4,465
  4,729
  5,005
  5,292
  5,592
  5,905
  6,232
  6,573
  6,931
  7,305
  7,696
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  910
  1,024
  1,144
  1,271
  1,404
  1,543
  1,689
  1,841
  1,999
  2,163
  2,334
  2,512
  2,697
  2,889
  3,088
  3,295
  3,511
  3,735
  3,969
  4,212
  4,465
  4,729
  5,005
  5,292
  5,592
  5,905
  6,232
  6,573
  6,931
  7,305
  7,696
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  1.403
  1.403
  1.403
  1.403
  1.403
  1.403
  1.403
  1.402
  1.403
  1.403
  1.403
  1.403
  1.403
  1.403
  1.403
  1.403
  1.403
  1.403
  1.403
  1.403
  1.403
  1.403
  1.403
  1.403
  1.403
  1.403
  1.403
  1.403
  1.403
  1.403
  1.403
Average production assets, $m
  179
  201
  225
  250
  276
  303
  332
  362
  393
  425
  458
  493
  530
  567
  607
  647
  690
  734
  780
  827
  877
  929
  983
  1,039
  1,098
  1,160
  1,224
  1,291
  1,361
  1,435
  1,512
Working capital, $m
  311
  313
  350
  389
  429
  472
  517
  563
  611
  662
  714
  768
  825
  883
  944
  1,008
  1,074
  1,143
  1,214
  1,288
  1,366
  1,446
  1,531
  1,619
  1,710
  1,806
  1,906
  2,011
  2,120
  2,234
  2,354
Total debt, $m
  470
  529
  624
  724
  828
  938
  1,053
  1,172
  1,297
  1,427
  1,561
  1,701
  1,847
  1,998
  2,155
  2,319
  2,489
  2,666
  2,850
  3,041
  3,241
  3,449
  3,666
  3,892
  4,128
  4,375
  4,633
  4,902
  5,183
  5,478
  5,786
Total liabilities, $m
  748
  807
  902
  1,002
  1,106
  1,216
  1,331
  1,450
  1,575
  1,705
  1,839
  1,979
  2,125
  2,276
  2,433
  2,597
  2,767
  2,944
  3,128
  3,319
  3,519
  3,727
  3,944
  4,170
  4,406
  4,653
  4,911
  5,180
  5,461
  5,756
  6,064
Total equity, $m
  226
  217
  243
  269
  298
  327
  358
  390
  424
  459
  495
  533
  572
  612
  655
  699
  744
  792
  841
  893
  947
  1,003
  1,061
  1,122
  1,185
  1,252
  1,321
  1,394
  1,469
  1,549
  1,631
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  974
  1,024
  1,145
  1,271
  1,404
  1,543
  1,689
  1,840
  1,999
  2,164
  2,334
  2,512
  2,697
  2,888
  3,088
  3,296
  3,511
  3,736
  3,969
  4,212
  4,466
  4,730
  5,005
  5,292
  5,591
  5,905
  6,232
  6,574
  6,930
  7,305
  7,695
Debt-to-equity ratio
  2.080
  2.440
  2.570
  2.690
  2.780
  2.870
  2.940
  3.000
  3.060
  3.110
  3.160
  3.190
  3.230
  3.260
  3.290
  3.320
  3.340
  3.370
  3.390
  3.410
  3.420
  3.440
  3.450
  3.470
  3.480
  3.490
  3.510
  3.520
  3.530
  3.540
  3.550
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.178
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212
  0.212

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  32
  46
  60
  75
  90
  106
  123
  140
  159
  178
  198
  225
  247
  269
  292
  317
  342
  369
  397
  425
  456
  487
  520
  554
  590
  628
  668
  709
  752
  798
  845
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  30
  32
  34
  37
  40
  43
  46
  50
  53
  57
  61
  56
  60
  64
  69
  74
  78
  83
  89
  94
  100
  106
  112
  118
  125
  132
  139
  147
  155
  163
  172
Funds from operations, $m
  67
  78
  94
  112
  130
  149
  169
  190
  212
  235
  259
  281
  307
  334
  361
  390
  421
  452
  485
  519
  555
  593
  632
  673
  715
  760
  807
  856
  907
  961
  1,017
Change in working capital, $m
  -6
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  46
  48
  50
  52
  54
  56
  59
  61
  63
  66
  69
  71
  74
  77
  81
  84
  88
  92
  96
  100
  105
  109
  114
  120
Cash from operations, $m
  73
  43
  57
  73
  89
  106
  125
  144
  164
  185
  206
  227
  250
  275
  300
  327
  355
  384
  414
  445
  478
  512
  548
  585
  624
  664
  707
  751
  798
  846
  897
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -20
  -23
  -26
  -28
  -31
  -34
  -38
  -41
  -45
  -48
  -52
  -56
  -60
  -64
  -69
  -74
  -78
  -83
  -89
  -94
  -100
  -106
  -112
  -118
  -125
  -132
  -139
  -147
  -155
  -163
New CAPEX, $m
  -29
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -59
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -52
  -43
  -47
  -51
  -54
  -58
  -63
  -68
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -87
  -92
  -98
  -103
  -110
  -116
  -122
  -129
  -137
  -144
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -177
  -186
  -196
  -206
  -217
  -228
  -240
Free cash flow, $m
  21
  0
  11
  22
  35
  48
  62
  76
  92
  108
  124
  140
  158
  177
  197
  217
  239
  261
  284
  309
  334
  360
  388
  417
  447
  478
  511
  545
  581
  618
  658
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -6
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  151
  157
  163
  170
  177
  184
  192
  200
  208
  217
  226
  236
  247
  258
  269
  282
  295
  308
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -2
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -11
  90
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  120
  125
  130
  135
  140
  146
  151
  157
  163
  170
  177
  184
  192
  200
  208
  217
  226
  236
  247
  258
  269
  282
  295
  308
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  8
  90
  106
  122
  140
  158
  176
  196
  216
  237
  259
  280
  303
  328
  354
  381
  409
  438
  468
  500
  534
  568
  605
  643
  683
  725
  768
  814
  862
  913
  966
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -21
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  33
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  99
  80
  95
  111
  128
  145
  164
  183
  202
  223
  242
  264
  287
  312
  337
  363
  390
  419
  449
  480
  512
  546
  582
  619
  658
  699
  742
  787
  834
  883
Discount rate, %
 
  8.80
  9.24
  9.70
  10.19
  10.70
  11.23
  11.79
  12.38
  13.00
  13.65
  14.33
  15.05
  15.80
  16.59
  17.42
  18.29
  19.21
  20.17
  21.18
  22.24
  23.35
  24.52
  25.74
  27.03
  28.38
  29.80
  31.29
  32.85
  34.50
  36.22
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  91
  67
  72
  76
  77
  77
  75
  72
  67
  62
  55
  49
  43
  36
  30
  25
  20
  15
  12
  9
  6
  4
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. is a diversified international company providing supply chain management outsourcing services, capital equipment used on their production lines and manufactured components used to assemble its products. The Company operates in three segments: Supply Technologies, Assembly Components and Engineered Products. Supply Technologies provides its customers with Total Supply Management, which manages every aspect of supplying production parts and materials to its customers' manufacturing floor, from strategic planning to program implementation. Assembly Components manufactures products oriented towards fuel efficiency and reduced emission standards. Engineered Products segment operates a group of manufacturing businesses that design and manufacture a range of products, including induction heating and melting systems, pipe threading systems, and forged and machined products. It operates through the subsidiaries of its direct subsidiary, Park-Ohio Industries, Inc.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Park-Ohio Holdings (PKOH)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 15.6
Price to Sales 0.4
Price to Book 2.2
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.8
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.3
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -12.8%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -21.6%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -0.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 2
Current Ratio 0.2
LT Debt to Equity 194.2%
Total Debt to Equity 208%
Interest Coverage 3
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 5.5%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Return On Total Capital 4.8%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.7%
Return On Equity 14.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 22%
Asset Turnover 1.3
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 15.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 16.3%
EBITDA Margin 7.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Operating Margin 5.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.4%
Pre-Tax Margin 3.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.4%
Net Profit Margin 2.5%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 3%
Effective Tax Rate 22%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 28.9%
Payout Ratio 18.8%

PKOH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PKOH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1277 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Park-Ohio Holdings. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Park-Ohio Holdings. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PKOH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 12.5% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 8.8%, whose default value for PKOH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Park-Ohio Holdings, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Park-Ohio Holdings.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PKOH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 84.5%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $132 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PKOH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.7% for Park-Ohio Holdings.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Park-Ohio Holdings. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PKOH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PKOH are equal to 14%.

Life of production assets of 8.8 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Park-Ohio Holdings operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PKOH is equal to 21.8%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $226 million for Park-Ohio Holdings - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 12.208 million for Park-Ohio Holdings is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Park-Ohio Holdings at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.5 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ 9 Stocks Robert Olstein Continues to Buy   [Feb-16-18 03:01PM  GuruFocus.com]
▶ ParkOhio Acquires Canton Drop Forge, Inc.   [Feb-01-18 04:45PM  Business Wire]
▶ ParkOhio Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Jan-31-18 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ Park-Ohio misses 3Q profit forecasts   [Nov-06-17 06:41PM  Associated Press]
▶ ParkOhio Announces Third Quarter Results   [05:01PM  Business Wire]
▶ ParkOhio Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Nov-01-17 09:37AM  Business Wire]
▶ Park-Ohio beats 2Q profit forecasts   [Aug-08-17 12:05AM  Associated Press]
▶ ParkOhio Announces Strong Second Quarter Results   [Aug-07-17 04:45PM  Business Wire]
▶ ParkOhio Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Jul-28-17 10:15AM  Business Wire]
▶ Park-Ohio meets 1Q profit forecasts   [May-08-17 04:46PM  Associated Press]
▶ ParkOhio Announces Quarterly Dividend   [09:39AM  Business Wire]
▶ Park-Ohio Prices $350 Million Debt Offering   [Apr-05-17 05:02PM  Business Wire]
▶ Park-Ohio misses Street 4Q forecasts   [Mar-07-17 04:56PM  Associated Press]
▶ ParkOhio Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Feb-01-17 12:59PM  Business Wire]
▶ Is Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. (PKOH) A Good Stock to Buy?   [Dec-12-16 05:21PM  at Insider Monkey]
▶ ParkOhio Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Oct-31-16 04:05PM  Business Wire]
▶ ParkOhio Announces Improved Results   [04:21PM  Business Wire]
▶ ParkOhio Announces Quarterly Dividend   [Jul-29-16 04:05PM  Business Wire]
Financial statements of PKOH
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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