Intrinsic value of Photronics - PLAB

Previous Close

$8.85

  Intrinsic Value

$5.18

stock screener

  Rating & Target

sell

-41%

Previous close

$8.85

 
Intrinsic value

$5.18

 
Up/down potential

-41%

 
Rating

sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of PLAB stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Shares outstanding, mln

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  -6.63
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  451
  460
  471
  483
  496
  511
  528
  546
  565
  586
  609
  633
  658
  686
  715
  746
  778
  813
  850
  888
  929
  972
  1,018
  1,065
  1,116
  1,169
  1,225
  1,284
  1,346
  1,411
  1,479
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  171
  175
  179
  184
  189
  196
  202
  209
  217
  225
  232
  242
  252
  263
  274
  286
  299
  312
  326
  341
  357
  374
  391
  410
  429
  450
  471
  494
  518
  543
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  263
  268
  274
  280
  287
  293
  299
  306
  313
  319
  327
  334
  341
  349
  356
  364
  372
  380
  389
  397
  406
  415
  424
  433
  443
  453
  462
  473
  483
  494
Total operating expenses, $m
  419
  434
  443
  453
  464
  476
  489
  501
  515
  530
  544
  559
  576
  593
  612
  630
  650
  671
  692
  715
  738
  763
  789
  815
  843
  872
  903
  933
  967
  1,001
  1,037
Operating income, $m
  32
  27
  28
  29
  32
  35
  39
  44
  50
  57
  64
  74
  83
  93
  104
  116
  129
  142
  157
  173
  191
  209
  229
  250
  273
  297
  323
  350
  379
  410
  442
EBITDA, $m
  114
  83
  86
  89
  93
  98
  104
  111
  119
  129
  139
  150
  162
  175
  189
  205
  222
  240
  259
  280
  302
  326
  351
  378
  406
  437
  469
  503
  540
  579
  620
Interest expense (income), $m
  0
  3
  3
  4
  4
  5
  5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  22
  23
  25
  27
  28
  30
  32
  34
Earnings before tax, $m
  27
  24
  24
  26
  28
  31
  34
  39
  44
  50
  56
  66
  74
  83
  93
  104
  116
  129
  142
  157
  173
  191
  209
  229
  250
  272
  296
  321
  349
  377
  408
Tax expense, $m
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  9
  10
  12
  13
  15
  18
  20
  22
  25
  28
  31
  35
  38
  42
  47
  51
  56
  62
  67
  73
  80
  87
  94
  102
  110
Net income, $m
  13
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  25
  28
  32
  36
  41
  48
  54
  61
  68
  76
  85
  94
  104
  115
  127
  139
  153
  167
  182
  199
  216
  235
  254
  275
  298

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  308
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,021
  811
  830
  851
  875
  902
  931
  963
  997
  1,034
  1,074
  1,116
  1,161
  1,210
  1,261
  1,315
  1,373
  1,434
  1,498
  1,567
  1,639
  1,714
  1,795
  1,879
  1,968
  2,062
  2,160
  2,264
  2,373
  2,488
  2,609
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  713
  811
  830
  851
  875
  902
  931
  963
  997
  1,034
  1,074
  1,116
  1,161
  1,210
  1,261
  1,315
  1,373
  1,434
  1,498
  1,567
  1,639
  1,714
  1,795
  1,879
  1,968
  2,062
  2,160
  2,264
  2,373
  2,488
  2,609
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.633
  0.567
  0.567
  0.568
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
  0.567
Average production assets, $m
  540
  551
  563
  578
  594
  612
  632
  653
  677
  702
  729
  757
  788
  821
  856
  893
  932
  973
  1,017
  1,063
  1,112
  1,164
  1,218
  1,275
  1,336
  1,399
  1,466
  1,537
  1,611
  1,689
  1,771
Working capital, $m
  367
  -28
  -28
  -29
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -33
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -51
  -53
  -56
  -58
  -61
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
Total debt, $m
  62
  64
  70
  77
  86
  95
  105
  115
  127
  140
  153
  168
  183
  200
  217
  236
  256
  277
  299
  322
  347
  373
  400
  429
  459
  491
  525
  561
  598
  637
  679
Total liabilities, $m
  276
  277
  284
  291
  299
  308
  318
  329
  341
  354
  367
  382
  397
  414
  431
  450
  470
  490
  512
  536
  560
  586
  614
  643
  673
  705
  739
  774
  812
  851
  892
Total equity, $m
  745
  534
  546
  560
  576
  593
  613
  633
  656
  680
  706
  734
  764
  796
  830
  865
  903
  943
  986
  1,031
  1,078
  1,128
  1,181
  1,236
  1,295
  1,357
  1,421
  1,490
  1,562
  1,637
  1,717
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,021
  811
  830
  851
  875
  901
  931
  962
  997
  1,034
  1,073
  1,116
  1,161
  1,210
  1,261
  1,315
  1,373
  1,433
  1,498
  1,567
  1,638
  1,714
  1,795
  1,879
  1,968
  2,062
  2,160
  2,264
  2,374
  2,488
  2,609
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.083
  0.120
  0.130
  0.140
  0.150
  0.160
  0.170
  0.180
  0.190
  0.210
  0.220
  0.230
  0.240
  0.250
  0.260
  0.270
  0.280
  0.290
  0.300
  0.310
  0.320
  0.330
  0.340
  0.350
  0.350
  0.360
  0.370
  0.380
  0.380
  0.390
  0.400
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.613
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658
  0.658

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  13
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  25
  28
  32
  36
  41
  48
  54
  61
  68
  76
  85
  94
  104
  115
  127
  139
  153
  167
  182
  199
  216
  235
  254
  275
  298
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  82
  57
  58
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  69
  72
  75
  76
  79
  82
  86
  89
  93
  97
  102
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  140
  147
  154
  161
  169
  177
Funds from operations, $m
  81
  74
  76
  78
  81
  85
  90
  95
  101
  108
  116
  124
  133
  143
  153
  165
  178
  191
  206
  221
  238
  255
  274
  294
  316
  339
  363
  388
  416
  444
  475
Change in working capital, $m
  -16
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -1
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -2
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -3
  -4
  -4
  -4
  -4
Cash from operations, $m
  97
  75
  76
  79
  82
  86
  91
  96
  103
  109
  117
  125
  134
  144
  155
  167
  180
  193
  208
  223
  240
  258
  277
  297
  319
  342
  366
  392
  419
  448
  479
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -54
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -106
  -111
  -116
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -161
  -169
New CAPEX, $m
  -93
  -11
  -13
  -14
  -16
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -27
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -60
  -64
  -67
  -70
  -74
  -78
  -82
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -98
  -65
  -68
  -70
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -88
  -93
  -97
  -102
  -107
  -112
  -117
  -123
  -128
  -134
  -141
  -148
  -155
  -163
  -170
  -179
  -188
  -198
  -207
  -217
  -228
  -239
  -251
Free cash flow, $m
  -1
  9
  9
  8
  8
  9
  10
  12
  14
  17
  20
  23
  28
  33
  38
  44
  51
  59
  67
  76
  85
  95
  106
  118
  131
  145
  159
  175
  191
  209
  228
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  -5
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -11
  6
  6
  7
  8
  9
  10
  11
  12
  13
  14
  15
  15
  16
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  25
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  34
  36
  37
  39
  41
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  -6
  15
  15
  15
  16
  18
  20
  23
  26
  29
  34
  38
  43
  49
  56
  63
  71
  80
  89
  99
  110
  121
  134
  147
  161
  177
  193
  210
  229
  249
  269
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  -35
  -10
  -12
  -14
  -16
  -17
  -19
  -21
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -45
  -47
  -50
  -53
  -56
  -59
  -62
  -65
  -68
  -72
  -76
  -80
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  222
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
  11
  11
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  227
  3
  1
  1
  0
  1
  2
  3
  5
  7
  10
  14
  18
  22
  27
  33
  39
  46
  54
  62
  71
  81
  92
  103
  115
  128
  142
  157
  173
  190
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  217
  2
  1
  0
  0
  1
  1
  2
  3
  4
  5
  6
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  8
  8
  7
  7
  6
  5
  4
  4
  3
  2
  2
  1
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
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Photronics, Inc. is a manufacturer of photomasks, which are photographic quartz plates containing microscopic images of electronic circuits. As of October 30, 2016, the Company operated principally from nine manufacturing facilities: two located in Europe, three in Taiwan, one in Korea and three in the United States. Photomasks are used in the manufacture of semiconductors and flat panel displays (FPDs), and are used as masters to transfer circuit patterns onto semiconductor wafers and flat panel substrates during the fabrication of integrated circuits (ICs), and a range of FPDs and other types of electrical and optical components. The Company offers reticle and photomask maintenance, including pellicle replacement, mask cleaning and re-certification, at all its sites across the world. Its products include Mature Binary, Advanced Binary Reticles, Phase Shift Masks-Embedded Attenuated Phase Shift Masks (EAPSM), Other Advanced Products and Large Area Masks.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Photronics (PLAB)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 46.7
Price to Sales 1.3
Price to Book 0.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 6.3
Price to Free Cash Flow 151.9
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate -6.6%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate 86%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 0.4%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 62
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 7.7%
Total Debt to Equity 8.3%
Interest Coverage 0
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 1.3%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 3.4%
Return On Total Capital 1.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.5%
Return On Equity 1.8%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.2%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 20.2%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24%
EBITDA Margin 24.2%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 26.9%
Operating Margin 7.1%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 11.2%
Pre-Tax Margin 6%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 10.6%
Net Profit Margin 2.9%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 7%
Effective Tax Rate 22.2%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 15.8%
Payout Ratio 0%

PLAB stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PLAB stock intrinsic value calculation we used $451 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Photronics. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Photronics. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PLAB stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PLAB is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Photronics, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Photronics.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PLAB stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 37.1%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $257 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PLAB stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 5.4% for Photronics.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Photronics. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PLAB stock is equal to 0.8%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PLAB are equal to 119.7%.

Life of production assets of 10 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Photronics operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PLAB is equal to -6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $745 million for Photronics - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 68 million for Photronics is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Photronics at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $0.6 billion.

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COMPANY NEWS

▶ Photronics Announces $20 Million Share Repurchase Program   [Jul-06-18 04:05PM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ The Top 5 Semiconductor Stocks to Buy   [Jun-25-18 02:26PM  InvestorPlace]
▶ Photronics Receives Supplier Award from Nanya Technology   [Jun-11-18 11:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Photronics, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [06:30AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Photronics: Fiscal 2Q Earnings Snapshot   [06:17AM  Associated Press]
▶ Photronics to Report Second Quarter Earnings   [May-02-18 11:00AM  GlobeNewswire]
▶ Photronics, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [07:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Photronics posts 1Q profit   [06:09AM  Associated Press]
▶ Photronics to Report First Quarter Earnings   [Jan-31-18 12:00PM  Marketwired]
▶ Company News For Nov 30, 2017   [10:21AM  Zacks]
▶ Photronics, Inc. to Host Earnings Call   [Nov-29-17 07:00AM  ACCESSWIRE]
▶ Photronics posts 4Q profit   [06:16AM  Associated Press]
▶ Photronics Inc (PLAB): Should The Recent EPS Drop Worry You?   [Nov-19-17 06:44PM  Simply Wall St.]
▶ Photronics to Report Fourth Quarter Earnings   [Nov-14-17 03:00PM  Marketwired]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Photronics, Inc. : November 6, 2017   [Nov-06-17 12:20PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Photronics, Inc. : October 2, 2017   [Oct-02-17 11:01AM  Capital Cube]
▶ Why Shares of Photronics Tumbled Today   [Aug-15-17 04:36PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Photronics misses Street 3Q forecasts   [Aug-14-17 11:24PM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Photronics, Inc. : July 10, 2017   [Jul-10-17 03:03PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Photronics, Inc. : June 26, 2017   [Jun-26-17 04:43PM  Capital Cube]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Photronics, Inc. : June 12, 2017   [Jun-12-17 02:21PM  Capital Cube]
▶ What Happened in the Stock Market Today   [May-17-17 04:53PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Why Shares of Photronics Are Down Today   [01:15PM  Motley Fool]
▶ Photronics misses Street 2Q forecasts   [06:10AM  Associated Press]
▶ Photronics misses 1Q profit forecasts   [06:06AM  Associated Press]
▶ ETFs with exposure to Photronics, Inc. : January 12, 2017   [Jan-12-17 02:22PM  Capital Cube]
Financial statements of PLAB
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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