Intrinsic value of Children's Place - PLCE

Previous Close

$113.30

  Intrinsic Value

$108.34

stock screener

  Rating & Target

hold

-4%

  Value-price divergence*

+62%

Previous close

$113.30

 
Intrinsic value

$108.34

 
Up/down potential

-4%

 
Rating

hold

 
Value-price divergence*

+62%

*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PLCE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.0

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.42
  2.00
  2.30
  2.57
  2.81
  3.03
  3.23
  3.41
  3.57
  3.71
  3.84
  3.95
  4.06
  4.15
  4.24
  4.31
  4.38
  4.44
  4.50
  4.55
  4.59
  4.64
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.81
  4.83
  4.84
  4.86
Revenue, $m
  1,785
  1,821
  1,863
  1,910
  1,964
  2,024
  2,089
  2,160
  2,237
  2,320
  2,409
  2,505
  2,606
  2,714
  2,829
  2,951
  3,081
  3,218
  3,362
  3,515
  3,677
  3,847
  4,027
  4,217
  4,416
  4,627
  4,848
  5,081
  5,326
  5,584
  5,855
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  344
  352
  361
  371
  382
  395
  408
  423
  439
  455
  473
  493
  513
  535
  558
  582
  608
  636
  664
  695
  727
  761
  797
  835
  874
  916
  960
  1,007
  1,055
  1,107
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  1,376
  1,410
  1,445
  1,481
  1,518
  1,556
  1,595
  1,635
  1,676
  1,718
  1,761
  1,805
  1,850
  1,896
  1,944
  1,992
  2,042
  2,093
  2,145
  2,199
  2,254
  2,310
  2,368
  2,427
  2,488
  2,550
  2,614
  2,679
  2,746
  2,815
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,638
  1,720
  1,762
  1,806
  1,852
  1,900
  1,951
  2,003
  2,058
  2,115
  2,173
  2,234
  2,298
  2,363
  2,431
  2,502
  2,574
  2,650
  2,729
  2,809
  2,894
  2,981
  3,071
  3,165
  3,262
  3,362
  3,466
  3,574
  3,686
  3,801
  3,922
Operating income, $m
  147
  101
  101
  104
  112
  123
  138
  157
  179
  206
  236
  270
  309
  351
  398
  450
  506
  568
  634
  706
  783
  866
  956
  1,052
  1,154
  1,264
  1,381
  1,507
  1,640
  1,782
  1,934
EBITDA, $m
  213
  157
  158
  163
  173
  186
  203
  224
  249
  278
  311
  348
  390
  436
  486
  542
  602
  667
  738
  815
  897
  986
  1,081
  1,182
  1,291
  1,408
  1,532
  1,664
  1,805
  1,955
  2,115
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  0
  2
  5
  8
  11
  14
  18
  23
  27
  32
  37
  43
  49
  56
  63
  70
  78
  86
  94
  104
  113
  123
  134
  146
  158
  170
  183
  197
  212
  227
Earnings before tax, $m
  147
  101
  98
  99
  104
  112
  124
  138
  157
  179
  204
  233
  266
  302
  343
  387
  436
  490
  548
  611
  679
  753
  832
  917
  1,009
  1,107
  1,211
  1,323
  1,443
  1,570
  1,706
Tax expense, $m
  45
  27
  27
  27
  28
  30
  33
  37
  42
  48
  55
  63
  72
  82
  93
  105
  118
  132
  148
  165
  183
  203
  225
  248
  272
  299
  327
  357
  390
  424
  461
Net income, $m
  102
  74
  72
  73
  76
  82
  90
  101
  114
  130
  149
  170
  194
  221
  250
  283
  319
  358
  400
  446
  496
  550
  608
  670
  736
  808
  884
  966
  1,053
  1,146
  1,246

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  243
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  911
  681
  697
  715
  735
  757
  782
  808
  837
  868
  902
  937
  975
  1,016
  1,059
  1,105
  1,153
  1,204
  1,258
  1,316
  1,376
  1,440
  1,507
  1,578
  1,653
  1,731
  1,814
  1,902
  1,993
  2,090
  2,191
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  668
  681
  697
  715
  735
  757
  782
  808
  837
  868
  902
  937
  975
  1,016
  1,059
  1,105
  1,153
  1,204
  1,258
  1,316
  1,376
  1,440
  1,507
  1,578
  1,653
  1,731
  1,814
  1,902
  1,993
  2,090
  2,191
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.672
  2.674
  2.673
  2.671
  2.672
  2.674
  2.671
  2.673
  2.673
  2.673
  2.671
  2.673
  2.673
  2.671
  2.671
  2.671
  2.672
  2.673
  2.672
  2.671
  2.672
  2.672
  2.672
  2.672
  2.672
  2.673
  2.673
  2.671
  2.672
  2.672
  2.672
Average production assets, $m
  277
  282
  289
  296
  304
  314
  324
  335
  347
  360
  373
  388
  404
  421
  439
  457
  478
  499
  521
  545
  570
  596
  624
  654
  685
  717
  751
  788
  826
  866
  908
Working capital, $m
  282
  55
  56
  57
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  70
  72
  75
  78
  81
  85
  89
  92
  97
  101
  105
  110
  115
  121
  126
  132
  139
  145
  152
  160
  168
  176
Total debt, $m
  15
  8
  18
  28
  40
  54
  68
  84
  102
  120
  140
  161
  184
  209
  234
  262
  291
  321
  354
  388
  424
  463
  503
  545
  590
  637
  687
  739
  794
  852
  913
Total liabilities, $m
  414
  408
  418
  428
  440
  454
  468
  484
  502
  520
  540
  561
  584
  609
  634
  662
  691
  721
  754
  788
  824
  863
  903
  945
  990
  1,037
  1,087
  1,139
  1,194
  1,252
  1,313
Total equity, $m
  496
  273
  280
  287
  295
  304
  314
  324
  336
  348
  362
  376
  391
  407
  425
  443
  462
  483
  505
  528
  552
  577
  604
  633
  663
  694
  728
  763
  799
  838
  879
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  910
  681
  698
  715
  735
  758
  782
  808
  838
  868
  902
  937
  975
  1,016
  1,059
  1,105
  1,153
  1,204
  1,259
  1,316
  1,376
  1,440
  1,507
  1,578
  1,653
  1,731
  1,815
  1,902
  1,993
  2,090
  2,192
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.030
  0.030
  0.060
  0.100
  0.140
  0.180
  0.220
  0.260
  0.300
  0.350
  0.390
  0.430
  0.470
  0.510
  0.550
  0.590
  0.630
  0.670
  0.700
  0.740
  0.770
  0.800
  0.830
  0.860
  0.890
  0.920
  0.940
  0.970
  0.990
  1.020
  1.040
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  102
  74
  72
  73
  76
  82
  90
  101
  114
  130
  149
  170
  194
  221
  250
  283
  319
  358
  400
  446
  496
  550
  608
  670
  736
  808
  884
  966
  1,053
  1,146
  1,246
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  66
  56
  58
  59
  61
  63
  65
  67
  69
  72
  75
  78
  81
  84
  88
  91
  96
  100
  104
  109
  114
  119
  125
  131
  137
  143
  150
  158
  165
  173
  182
Funds from operations, $m
  220
  130
  130
  132
  137
  145
  155
  168
  184
  202
  224
  248
  275
  305
  338
  374
  414
  457
  504
  555
  610
  669
  732
  800
  873
  951
  1,035
  1,123
  1,218
  1,319
  1,427
Change in working capital, $m
  21
  1
  1
  1
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
Cash from operations, $m
  199
  129
  128
  130
  135
  143
  153
  166
  182
  200
  221
  245
  272
  302
  334
  371
  410
  453
  500
  551
  605
  664
  727
  795
  867
  945
  1,028
  1,117
  1,211
  1,312
  1,419
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -55
  -56
  -58
  -59
  -61
  -63
  -65
  -67
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -78
  -81
  -84
  -88
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -119
  -125
  -131
  -137
  -143
  -150
  -158
  -165
  -173
New CAPEX, $m
  -35
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -44
  -60
  -62
  -65
  -67
  -70
  -73
  -76
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -94
  -98
  -102
  -107
  -111
  -117
  -122
  -128
  -134
  -140
  -147
  -154
  -162
  -170
  -177
  -186
  -196
  -205
  -215
Free cash flow, $m
  155
  69
  65
  65
  68
  73
  80
  90
  103
  118
  135
  155
  178
  204
  233
  264
  299
  337
  378
  423
  471
  523
  580
  640
  706
  775
  850
  930
  1,015
  1,107
  1,204
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  15
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -157
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -140
  8
  9
  11
  12
  13
  15
  16
  17
  19
  20
  21
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  31
  32
  34
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  21
  77
  75
  76
  80
  86
  95
  106
  120
  136
  155
  177
  201
  228
  258
  291
  328
  367
  410
  457
  507
  562
  620
  683
  750
  823
  900
  982
  1,070
  1,164
  1,265
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  32
  -5
  -6
  -7
  -8
  -9
  -10
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  228
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  299
  69
  69
  72
  77
  85
  95
  108
  124
  142
  162
  186
  212
  241
  273
  308
  347
  389
  434
  483
  536
  593
  655
  720
  791
  867
  947
  1,034
  1,126
  1,224
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  287
  63
  60
  59
  60
  62
  64
  68
  71
  74
  77
  79
  81
  81
  80
  78
  75
  72
  67
  61
  55
  49
  43
  37
  31
  25
  20
  16
  12
  9
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The Children's Place, Inc. (The Children's Place) is a pure-play children's specialty apparel retailer in North America. The Company sells apparel, accessories, footwear and other items for children. The Company operates through two segments: The Children's Place U.S. and The Children's Place International. The Children's Place U.S. segment includes the United States and Puerto Rico-based stores and revenue from the United States-based wholesale customers. The Children's Place International segment includes its Canadian-based stores, revenue from the Company's Canada wholesale customer, as well as revenue from international franchisees. The Company designs, contracts to manufacture and licenses to sell merchandise under brand names, such as The Children's Place, Place and Baby Place. The Children's Place has various departments and serves the wardrobe needs of girls and boys (sizes 4 to 14), toddler girls and boys (sizes 12 months to 5T), and baby (sizes 0 to 18 months).

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Children's Place (PLCE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 19.7
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10.1
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.2
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -16.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -13.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 16
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 3%
Interest Coverage 75
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Return On Total Capital 19.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
Return On Equity 19.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.4%
EBITDA Margin 12%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Operating Margin 8.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Net Profit Margin 5.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Effective Tax Rate 30.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.4%
Payout Ratio 14.7%

PLCE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PLCE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1785 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Children's Place. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Children's Place. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PLCE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 2% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PLCE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Children's Place, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Children's Place.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PLCE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 18.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1342 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PLCE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 26.7% for Children's Place.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Children's Place. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PLCE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PLCE are equal to 15.5%.

Life of production assets of 4.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Children's Place operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PLCE is equal to 3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $496 million for Children's Place - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 17.89 million for Children's Place is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Children's Place at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.0 billion.

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Financial statements of PLCE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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