Intrinsic value of Children's Place - PLCE

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$106.65

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$106.65

 
Intrinsic value

$216.60

 
Up/down potential

+103%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
Value-price divergence* premium content

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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PLCE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.42
  4.30
  4.37
  4.43
  4.49
  4.54
  4.59
  4.63
  4.67
  4.70
  4.73
  4.76
  4.78
  4.80
  4.82
  4.84
  4.86
  4.87
  4.88
  4.89
  4.91
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.94
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
Revenue, $m
  1,785
  1,862
  1,943
  2,029
  2,120
  2,217
  2,318
  2,426
  2,539
  2,658
  2,784
  2,916
  3,056
  3,202
  3,357
  3,519
  3,690
  3,870
  4,059
  4,257
  4,466
  4,686
  4,916
  5,159
  5,414
  5,681
  5,962
  6,258
  6,568
  6,894
  7,237
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  352
  367
  384
  401
  419
  438
  458
  480
  502
  526
  551
  577
  605
  634
  665
  697
  731
  767
  805
  844
  886
  929
  975
  1,023
  1,074
  1,127
  1,183
  1,241
  1,303
  1,368
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  1,376
  1,410
  1,445
  1,481
  1,518
  1,556
  1,595
  1,635
  1,676
  1,718
  1,761
  1,805
  1,850
  1,896
  1,944
  1,992
  2,042
  2,093
  2,145
  2,199
  2,254
  2,310
  2,368
  2,427
  2,488
  2,550
  2,614
  2,679
  2,746
  2,815
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,638
  1,728
  1,777
  1,829
  1,882
  1,937
  1,994
  2,053
  2,115
  2,178
  2,244
  2,312
  2,382
  2,455
  2,530
  2,609
  2,689
  2,773
  2,860
  2,950
  3,043
  3,140
  3,239
  3,343
  3,450
  3,562
  3,677
  3,797
  3,920
  4,049
  4,183
Operating income, $m
  147
  134
  166
  201
  238
  279
  324
  372
  424
  480
  540
  604
  673
  747
  826
  910
  1,000
  1,096
  1,199
  1,307
  1,423
  1,546
  1,677
  1,816
  1,963
  2,120
  2,285
  2,461
  2,648
  2,845
  3,054
EBITDA, $m
  213
  192
  226
  263
  304
  348
  396
  447
  503
  562
  626
  695
  768
  846
  930
  1,020
  1,115
  1,216
  1,324
  1,439
  1,562
  1,691
  1,829
  1,976
  2,131
  2,296
  2,470
  2,655
  2,851
  3,059
  3,278
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  0
  5
  10
  15
  20
  26
  32
  38
  45
  52
  60
  68
  76
  85
  94
  104
  114
  125
  136
  148
  161
  174
  187
  202
  217
  233
  250
  268
  286
  306
Earnings before tax, $m
  147
  134
  161
  191
  224
  259
  298
  340
  385
  435
  487
  544
  605
  671
  741
  816
  897
  982
  1,074
  1,171
  1,275
  1,386
  1,503
  1,628
  1,761
  1,902
  2,052
  2,211
  2,380
  2,559
  2,748
Tax expense, $m
  45
  36
  44
  52
  60
  70
  80
  92
  104
  117
  132
  147
  163
  181
  200
  220
  242
  265
  290
  316
  344
  374
  406
  440
  476
  514
  554
  597
  643
  691
  742
Net income, $m
  102
  98
  118
  139
  163
  189
  218
  248
  281
  317
  356
  397
  442
  490
  541
  596
  654
  717
  784
  855
  931
  1,011
  1,097
  1,189
  1,286
  1,389
  1,498
  1,614
  1,737
  1,868
  2,006

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  243
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  911
  697
  727
  759
  794
  830
  868
  908
  950
  995
  1,042
  1,091
  1,144
  1,198
  1,256
  1,317
  1,381
  1,448
  1,519
  1,593
  1,671
  1,754
  1,840
  1,931
  2,026
  2,126
  2,231
  2,342
  2,458
  2,580
  2,708
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  668
  697
  727
  759
  794
  830
  868
  908
  950
  995
  1,042
  1,091
  1,144
  1,198
  1,256
  1,317
  1,381
  1,448
  1,519
  1,593
  1,671
  1,754
  1,840
  1,931
  2,026
  2,126
  2,231
  2,342
  2,458
  2,580
  2,708
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.672
  2.671
  2.673
  2.673
  2.670
  2.671
  2.671
  2.672
  2.673
  2.671
  2.672
  2.673
  2.671
  2.673
  2.673
  2.672
  2.672
  2.673
  2.672
  2.672
  2.673
  2.672
  2.672
  2.672
  2.672
  2.672
  2.672
  2.672
  2.672
  2.672
  2.672
Average production assets, $m
  277
  289
  301
  315
  329
  344
  359
  376
  394
  412
  431
  452
  474
  496
  520
  545
  572
  600
  629
  660
  692
  726
  762
  800
  839
  881
  924
  970
  1,018
  1,069
  1,122
Working capital, $m
  282
  56
  58
  61
  64
  66
  70
  73
  76
  80
  84
  87
  92
  96
  101
  106
  111
  116
  122
  128
  134
  141
  147
  155
  162
  170
  179
  188
  197
  207
  217
Total debt, $m
  15
  17
  36
  55
  75
  97
  120
  144
  169
  196
  224
  254
  285
  318
  352
  389
  427
  468
  510
  554
  601
  650
  702
  756
  814
  874
  937
  1,003
  1,072
  1,146
  1,222
Total liabilities, $m
  414
  417
  436
  455
  475
  497
  520
  544
  569
  596
  624
  654
  685
  718
  752
  789
  827
  868
  910
  954
  1,001
  1,050
  1,102
  1,156
  1,214
  1,274
  1,337
  1,403
  1,472
  1,546
  1,622
Total equity, $m
  496
  279
  292
  305
  318
  333
  348
  364
  381
  399
  418
  438
  459
  481
  504
  528
  554
  581
  609
  639
  670
  703
  738
  774
  812
  853
  895
  939
  986
  1,035
  1,086
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  910
  696
  728
  760
  793
  830
  868
  908
  950
  995
  1,042
  1,092
  1,144
  1,199
  1,256
  1,317
  1,381
  1,449
  1,519
  1,593
  1,671
  1,753
  1,840
  1,930
  2,026
  2,127
  2,232
  2,342
  2,458
  2,581
  2,708
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.030
  0.060
  0.120
  0.180
  0.240
  0.290
  0.340
  0.390
  0.440
  0.490
  0.540
  0.580
  0.620
  0.660
  0.700
  0.740
  0.770
  0.810
  0.840
  0.870
  0.900
  0.920
  0.950
  0.980
  1.000
  1.020
  1.050
  1.070
  1.090
  1.110
  1.130
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  102
  98
  118
  139
  163
  189
  218
  248
  281
  317
  356
  397
  442
  490
  541
  596
  654
  717
  784
  855
  931
  1,011
  1,097
  1,189
  1,286
  1,389
  1,498
  1,614
  1,737
  1,868
  2,006
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  66
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  75
  79
  82
  86
  90
  95
  99
  104
  109
  114
  120
  126
  132
  138
  145
  152
  160
  168
  176
  185
  194
  204
  214
  224
Funds from operations, $m
  220
  156
  178
  202
  229
  258
  289
  323
  360
  400
  442
  488
  537
  589
  645
  705
  769
  837
  910
  987
  1,069
  1,157
  1,250
  1,349
  1,453
  1,565
  1,683
  1,808
  1,941
  2,082
  2,231
Change in working capital, $m
  21
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  8
  9
  9
  10
  10
Cash from operations, $m
  199
  140
  176
  200
  226
  255
  286
  320
  357
  396
  438
  484
  533
  585
  640
  700
  764
  832
  904
  981
  1,063
  1,150
  1,243
  1,341
  1,446
  1,557
  1,674
  1,799
  1,932
  2,072
  2,220
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -75
  -79
  -82
  -86
  -90
  -95
  -99
  -104
  -109
  -114
  -120
  -126
  -132
  -138
  -145
  -152
  -160
  -168
  -176
  -185
  -194
  -204
  -214
New CAPEX, $m
  -35
  -12
  -13
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -18
  -19
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -26
  -28
  -29
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -39
  -41
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -51
  -53
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -44
  -67
  -71
  -73
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -93
  -97
  -101
  -107
  -112
  -118
  -123
  -129
  -135
  -142
  -149
  -157
  -164
  -172
  -181
  -190
  -199
  -209
  -220
  -231
  -242
  -255
  -267
Free cash flow, $m
  155
  74
  105
  126
  149
  174
  202
  232
  264
  299
  336
  377
  421
  467
  517
  571
  628
  689
  755
  824
  899
  978
  1,062
  1,151
  1,246
  1,347
  1,455
  1,569
  1,689
  1,818
  1,953
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  15
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -157
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -140
  17
  18
  19
  20
  22
  23
  24
  25
  27
  28
  30
  31
  33
  35
  36
  38
  40
  42
  45
  47
  49
  52
  54
  57
  60
  63
  66
  70
  73
  77
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  21
  91
  123
  145
  170
  196
  225
  256
  289
  326
  365
  407
  452
  500
  552
  607
  666
  730
  797
  869
  945
  1,027
  1,114
  1,206
  1,304
  1,407
  1,518
  1,635
  1,759
  1,891
  2,030
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  32
  -11
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -35
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -47
  -49
  -51
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  228
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  307
  111
  133
  156
  182
  209
  240
  272
  308
  346
  387
  431
  478
  529
  583
  641
  703
  769
  839
  914
  994
  1,079
  1,169
  1,265
  1,367
  1,476
  1,591
  1,712
  1,842
  1,979
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  295
  102
  115
  128
  141
  152
  162
  170
  177
  181
  184
  184
  182
  178
  171
  163
  153
  142
  129
  116
  103
  90
  77
  64
  53
  43
  34
  26
  20
  15
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The Children's Place, Inc. operates as a children's specialty apparel retailer. The company sells apparel, accessories, footwear, and other items for children; and designs, contracts to manufacture, and sells merchandise under the proprietary The Children's Place, Place, and Baby Place brand names. As of January 30, 2016, it operated 1,069 stores in the United States, Canada, and Puerto Rico; and 102 international points of distribution operated by its 6 franchise partners in 16 countries. The company also sells its products through childrensplace.com, an online store. The company was formerly known as The ChildrenÂ’s Place Retail Stores, Inc. and changed its name to The Children's Place, Inc. in June 2014. The Children's Place, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is based in Secaucus, New Jersey.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Children's Place (PLCE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 18.5
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 3.8
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 9.5
Price to Free Cash Flow 11.5
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -16.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -13.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 16
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 3%
Interest Coverage 75
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Return On Total Capital 19.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
Return On Equity 19.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.4%
EBITDA Margin 12%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Operating Margin 8.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Net Profit Margin 5.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Effective Tax Rate 30.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.4%
Payout Ratio 14.7%

PLCE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PLCE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1785 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Children's Place. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Children's Place. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PLCE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.3% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PLCE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Children's Place, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Children's Place.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PLCE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 18.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1342 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PLCE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 26.7% for Children's Place.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Children's Place. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PLCE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PLCE are equal to 15.5%.

Life of production assets of 4.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Children's Place operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PLCE is equal to 3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $496 million for Children's Place - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 17.46 million for Children's Place is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Children's Place at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.


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Stock chart of PLCE Financial statements of PLCE Annual reports of PLCE
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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