Intrinsic value of Children's Place - PLCE

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$112.15

  Intrinsic Value

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  Rating & Target

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  Value-price divergence*

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Previous close

$112.15

 
Intrinsic value

$223.26

 
Up/down potential

+99%

 
Rating

str. buy

 
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*Intrinsic value change (in %) minus stock price change (in %) in the past 12 months.

We calculate the intrinsic value of PLCE stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2017), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 1.9

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2017(a)
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046
   2047

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  3.42
  4.40
  4.46
  4.51
  4.56
  4.61
  4.65
  4.68
  4.71
  4.74
  4.77
  4.79
  4.81
  4.83
  4.85
  4.86
  4.88
  4.89
  4.90
  4.91
  4.92
  4.93
  4.93
  4.94
  4.95
  4.95
  4.96
  4.96
  4.97
  4.97
  4.97
Revenue, $m
  1,785
  1,864
  1,947
  2,035
  2,127
  2,225
  2,329
  2,438
  2,553
  2,674
  2,801
  2,935
  3,077
  3,225
  3,382
  3,546
  3,719
  3,901
  4,092
  4,293
  4,504
  4,726
  4,959
  5,204
  5,461
  5,732
  6,016
  6,314
  6,628
  6,957
  7,303
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  352
  368
  385
  402
  421
  440
  461
  482
  505
  529
  555
  581
  610
  639
  670
  703
  737
  773
  811
  851
  893
  937
  984
  1,032
  1,083
  1,137
  1,193
  1,253
  1,315
  1,380
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  1,376
  1,410
  1,445
  1,481
  1,518
  1,556
  1,595
  1,635
  1,676
  1,718
  1,761
  1,805
  1,850
  1,896
  1,944
  1,992
  2,042
  2,093
  2,145
  2,199
  2,254
  2,310
  2,368
  2,427
  2,488
  2,550
  2,614
  2,679
  2,746
  2,815
Total operating expenses, $m
  1,638
  1,728
  1,778
  1,830
  1,883
  1,939
  1,996
  2,056
  2,117
  2,181
  2,247
  2,316
  2,386
  2,460
  2,535
  2,614
  2,695
  2,779
  2,866
  2,956
  3,050
  3,147
  3,247
  3,352
  3,459
  3,571
  3,687
  3,807
  3,932
  4,061
  4,195
Operating income, $m
  147
  136
  169
  205
  244
  286
  332
  382
  435
  492
  554
  620
  690
  766
  846
  932
  1,024
  1,121
  1,225
  1,336
  1,454
  1,579
  1,711
  1,852
  2,002
  2,161
  2,329
  2,507
  2,696
  2,896
  3,108
EBITDA, $m
  213
  194
  229
  268
  310
  355
  404
  457
  514
  575
  641
  711
  786
  866
  951
  1,042
  1,139
  1,242
  1,352
  1,469
  1,593
  1,725
  1,865
  2,014
  2,171
  2,338
  2,515
  2,703
  2,901
  3,112
  3,334
Interest expense (income), $m
  2
  0
  5
  10
  15
  21
  26
  33
  39
  46
  53
  61
  69
  77
  86
  96
  105
  116
  127
  138
  150
  163
  176
  190
  205
  220
  236
  253
  271
  290
  310
Earnings before tax, $m
  147
  136
  164
  195
  229
  266
  306
  349
  396
  446
  501
  559
  621
  688
  760
  837
  918
  1,006
  1,099
  1,198
  1,303
  1,416
  1,535
  1,662
  1,797
  1,940
  2,093
  2,254
  2,425
  2,606
  2,798
Tax expense, $m
  45
  37
  44
  53
  62
  72
  83
  94
  107
  121
  135
  151
  168
  186
  205
  226
  248
  272
  297
  323
  352
  382
  415
  449
  485
  524
  565
  609
  655
  704
  756
Net income, $m
  102
  99
  120
  142
  167
  194
  223
  255
  289
  326
  365
  408
  454
  502
  555
  611
  670
  734
  802
  874
  952
  1,034
  1,121
  1,213
  1,312
  1,417
  1,528
  1,645
  1,770
  1,903
  2,043

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  243
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  911
  697
  729
  761
  796
  833
  872
  912
  955
  1,001
  1,048
  1,099
  1,151
  1,207
  1,266
  1,327
  1,392
  1,460
  1,531
  1,607
  1,686
  1,769
  1,856
  1,948
  2,044
  2,145
  2,252
  2,363
  2,481
  2,604
  2,733
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  668
  697
  729
  761
  796
  833
  872
  912
  955
  1,001
  1,048
  1,099
  1,151
  1,207
  1,266
  1,327
  1,392
  1,460
  1,531
  1,607
  1,686
  1,769
  1,856
  1,948
  2,044
  2,145
  2,252
  2,363
  2,481
  2,604
  2,733
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  2.672
  2.674
  2.671
  2.674
  2.672
  2.671
  2.671
  2.673
  2.673
  2.671
  2.673
  2.671
  2.673
  2.672
  2.671
  2.672
  2.672
  2.672
  2.673
  2.671
  2.671
  2.672
  2.672
  2.671
  2.672
  2.672
  2.671
  2.672
  2.672
  2.672
  2.672
Average production assets, $m
  277
  289
  302
  315
  330
  345
  361
  378
  396
  414
  434
  455
  477
  500
  524
  550
  576
  605
  634
  665
  698
  732
  769
  807
  847
  888
  932
  979
  1,027
  1,078
  1,132
Working capital, $m
  282
  56
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  73
  77
  80
  84
  88
  92
  97
  101
  106
  112
  117
  123
  129
  135
  142
  149
  156
  164
  172
  180
  189
  199
  209
  219
Total debt, $m
  15
  18
  36
  56
  77
  99
  122
  146
  172
  199
  228
  258
  290
  323
  358
  395
  434
  474
  517
  562
  610
  659
  712
  767
  824
  885
  949
  1,016
  1,086
  1,160
  1,237
Total liabilities, $m
  414
  418
  436
  456
  477
  499
  522
  546
  572
  599
  628
  658
  690
  723
  758
  795
  834
  874
  917
  962
  1,010
  1,059
  1,112
  1,167
  1,224
  1,285
  1,349
  1,416
  1,486
  1,560
  1,637
Total equity, $m
  496
  280
  292
  305
  319
  334
  349
  366
  383
  401
  420
  441
  462
  484
  507
  532
  558
  585
  614
  644
  676
  709
  744
  781
  820
  860
  903
  948
  995
  1,044
  1,096
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  910
  698
  728
  761
  796
  833
  871
  912
  955
  1,000
  1,048
  1,099
  1,152
  1,207
  1,265
  1,327
  1,392
  1,459
  1,531
  1,606
  1,686
  1,768
  1,856
  1,948
  2,044
  2,145
  2,252
  2,364
  2,481
  2,604
  2,733
Debt-to-equity ratio
  0.030
  0.060
  0.120
  0.180
  0.240
  0.300
  0.350
  0.400
  0.450
  0.500
  0.540
  0.590
  0.630
  0.670
  0.710
  0.740
  0.780
  0.810
  0.840
  0.870
  0.900
  0.930
  0.960
  0.980
  1.010
  1.030
  1.050
  1.070
  1.090
  1.110
  1.130
Adjusted equity ratio
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401
  0.401

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  102
  99
  120
  142
  167
  194
  223
  255
  289
  326
  365
  408
  454
  502
  555
  611
  670
  734
  802
  874
  952
  1,034
  1,121
  1,213
  1,312
  1,417
  1,528
  1,645
  1,770
  1,903
  2,043
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  66
  58
  60
  63
  66
  69
  72
  76
  79
  83
  87
  91
  95
  100
  105
  110
  115
  121
  127
  133
  140
  146
  154
  161
  169
  178
  186
  196
  205
  216
  226
Funds from operations, $m
  220
  157
  180
  205
  233
  263
  295
  330
  368
  409
  452
  499
  549
  602
  660
  721
  786
  855
  929
  1,008
  1,091
  1,180
  1,275
  1,375
  1,481
  1,594
  1,714
  1,841
  1,976
  2,118
  2,269
Change in working capital, $m
  21
  2
  2
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  3
  4
  4
  4
  4
  4
  5
  5
  5
  5
  6
  6
  6
  7
  7
  7
  8
  8
  9
  9
  9
  10
  10
Cash from operations, $m
  199
  142
  178
  203
  230
  260
  292
  327
  365
  405
  448
  495
  545
  598
  655
  716
  781
  850
  923
  1,002
  1,085
  1,173
  1,268
  1,367
  1,474
  1,586
  1,706
  1,832
  1,966
  2,108
  2,259
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -55
  -58
  -60
  -63
  -66
  -69
  -72
  -76
  -79
  -83
  -87
  -91
  -95
  -100
  -105
  -110
  -115
  -121
  -127
  -133
  -140
  -146
  -154
  -161
  -169
  -178
  -186
  -196
  -205
  -216
New CAPEX, $m
  -35
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -25
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -33
  -34
  -36
  -38
  -40
  -42
  -44
  -46
  -49
  -51
  -54
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -44
  -67
  -71
  -74
  -77
  -81
  -85
  -89
  -94
  -98
  -103
  -108
  -113
  -118
  -124
  -130
  -137
  -143
  -151
  -158
  -166
  -174
  -182
  -192
  -201
  -211
  -222
  -232
  -245
  -256
  -270
Free cash flow, $m
  155
  74
  107
  129
  153
  179
  207
  238
  271
  307
  346
  387
  432
  480
  531
  585
  644
  706
  773
  844
  919
  999
  1,085
  1,176
  1,272
  1,375
  1,484
  1,599
  1,722
  1,852
  1,990
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  15
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  78
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -157
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  -140
  18
  19
  20
  21
  22
  23
  24
  26
  27
  29
  30
  32
  33
  35
  37
  39
  41
  43
  45
  47
  50
  52
  55
  58
  61
  64
  67
  70
  74
  78
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  21
  92
  126
  149
  174
  201
  231
  263
  297
  334
  374
  417
  464
  513
  566
  622
  683
  747
  815
  889
  966
  1,049
  1,137
  1,231
  1,330
  1,436
  1,547
  1,666
  1,792
  1,926
  2,067
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  32
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -15
  -16
  -16
  -17
  -18
  -19
  -20
  -21
  -22
  -23
  -25
  -26
  -27
  -29
  -30
  -32
  -33
  -35
  -37
  -39
  -41
  -43
  -45
  -47
  -49
  -52
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  228
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  308
  113
  135
  160
  186
  215
  246
  280
  316
  355
  397
  442
  491
  542
  598
  657
  720
  787
  858
  935
  1,016
  1,102
  1,194
  1,291
  1,395
  1,505
  1,621
  1,745
  1,876
  2,015
Discount rate, %
 
  4.30
  4.52
  4.74
  4.98
  5.23
  5.49
  5.76
  6.05
  6.35
  6.67
  7.00
  7.35
  7.72
  8.11
  8.51
  8.94
  9.39
  9.86
  10.35
  10.87
  11.41
  11.98
  12.58
  13.21
  13.87
  14.56
  15.29
  16.05
  16.86
  17.70
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  296
  104
  118
  132
  144
  156
  166
  175
  182
  186
  189
  189
  187
  182
  175
  167
  157
  145
  132
  119
  105
  91
  78
  66
  54
  44
  35
  27
  20
  15
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0
  100.0

The Children's Place, Inc. operates as a children's specialty apparel retailer. The company sells apparel, accessories, footwear, and other items for children; and designs, contracts to manufacture, and sells merchandise under the proprietary The Children's Place, Place, and Baby Place brand names. As of January 30, 2016, it operated 1,069 stores in the United States, Canada, and Puerto Rico; and 102 international points of distribution operated by its 6 franchise partners in 16 countries. The company also sells its products through childrensplace.com, an online store. The company was formerly known as The ChildrenÂ’s Place Retail Stores, Inc. and changed its name to The Children's Place, Inc. in June 2014. The Children's Place, Inc. was founded in 1969 and is based in Secaucus, New Jersey.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Children's Place (PLCE)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 19.5
Price to Sales 1.1
Price to Book 4
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 10
Price to Free Cash Flow 12.1
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 3.4%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -16.7%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate -13.7%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 16
Current Ratio 0.1
LT Debt to Equity 0%
Total Debt to Equity 3%
Interest Coverage 75
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 11.4%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 7.9%
Return On Total Capital 19.6%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.2%
Return On Equity 19.9%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 13.3%
Asset Turnover 2
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 37.6%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 36.4%
EBITDA Margin 12%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 9.6%
Operating Margin 8.2%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Pre-Tax Margin 8.2%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 6%
Net Profit Margin 5.7%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 4.1%
Effective Tax Rate 30.6%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 31.4%
Payout Ratio 14.7%

PLCE stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PLCE stock intrinsic value calculation we used $1785 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Children's Place. The default revenue input number comes from 2017 income statement of Children's Place. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PLCE stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 4.4% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 4.3%, whose default value for PLCE is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Children's Place, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Children's Place.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PLCE stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 18.9%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $1342 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PLCE stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 26.7% for Children's Place.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Children's Place. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PLCE stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PLCE are equal to 15.5%.

Life of production assets of 4.2 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Children's Place operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PLCE is equal to 3%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $496 million for Children's Place - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 17.326 million for Children's Place is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Children's Place at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $1.9 billion.


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