Intrinsic value of Planet Fitness Cl A - PLNT

Previous Close

$26.53

  Intrinsic Value

$9.21

stock screener

  Rating & Target

str. sell

-65%

Previous close

$26.53

 
Intrinsic value

$9.21

 
Up/down potential

-65%

 
Rating

str. sell

We calculate the intrinsic value of PLNT stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue (in 2016), $M
Initial revenue growth rate, %
Terminal revenue growth rate, %
Revenue decline factor
Initial discount rate, %
Discount rate multiplier
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, $M
Interest rate on debt, %
Effective corporate tax rate, %
Production assets / Revenue, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Working capital / Revenue, %
Revenue / Adjusted assets
Adjusted equity ratio
Cash flow adjustment, % of Revenue
Book value of equity, $M
Shares outstanding, mln
Market capitalization, $bln 2.6

 

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year
2016(a)
   2017
   2018
   2019
   2020
   2021
   2022
   2023
   2024
   2025
   2026
   2027
   2028
   2029
   2030
   2031
   2032
   2033
   2034
   2035
   2036
   2037
   2038
   2039
   2040
   2041
   2042
   2043
   2044
   2045
   2046

INCOME STATEMENT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Revenue growth rate, %
  14.20
  17.60
  16.34
  15.21
  14.19
  13.27
  12.44
  11.70
  11.03
  10.42
  9.88
  9.39
  8.95
  8.56
  8.20
  7.88
  7.59
  7.33
  7.10
  6.89
  6.70
  6.53
  6.38
  6.24
  6.12
  6.01
  5.90
  5.81
  5.73
  5.66
  5.59
Revenue, $m
  378
  445
  517
  596
  680
  771
  866
  968
  1,074
  1,186
  1,304
  1,426
  1,554
  1,687
  1,825
  1,969
  2,119
  2,274
  2,436
  2,603
  2,778
  2,959
  3,148
  3,345
  3,549
  3,762
  3,984
  4,216
  4,458
  4,710
  4,974
Variable operating expenses, $m
 
  66
  74
  83
  92
  102
  112
  123
  135
  147
  160
  156
  170
  184
  199
  215
  231
  248
  266
  284
  303
  323
  344
  365
  387
  411
  435
  460
  487
  514
  543
Fixed operating expenses, $m
 
  216
  222
  227
  233
  239
  245
  251
  257
  264
  270
  277
  284
  291
  298
  306
  313
  321
  329
  337
  346
  354
  363
  372
  382
  391
  401
  411
  421
  432
  443
Total operating expenses, $m
  263
  282
  296
  310
  325
  341
  357
  374
  392
  411
  430
  433
  454
  475
  497
  521
  544
  569
  595
  621
  649
  677
  707
  737
  769
  802
  836
  871
  908
  946
  986
Operating income, $m
  116
  162
  221
  286
  355
  430
  509
  594
  682
  776
  874
  994
  1,100
  1,212
  1,328
  1,449
  1,574
  1,705
  1,841
  1,982
  2,129
  2,282
  2,441
  2,607
  2,780
  2,960
  3,148
  3,345
  3,550
  3,764
  3,988
EBITDA, $m
  148
  204
  267
  336
  410
  490
  575
  664
  759
  858
  963
  1,072
  1,185
  1,304
  1,428
  1,556
  1,690
  1,829
  1,974
  2,124
  2,281
  2,444
  2,613
  2,790
  2,974
  3,166
  3,366
  3,575
  3,794
  4,022
  4,260
Interest expense (income), $m
  24
  28
  24
  30
  38
  45
  54
  62
  72
  82
  92
  103
  114
  125
  138
  150
  163
  177
  191
  206
  222
  238
  254
  271
  289
  308
  328
  348
  369
  391
  415
Earnings before tax, $m
  90
  134
  198
  255
  318
  385
  456
  531
  611
  694
  782
  891
  987
  1,086
  1,190
  1,298
  1,411
  1,528
  1,649
  1,776
  1,907
  2,044
  2,187
  2,336
  2,491
  2,652
  2,821
  2,997
  3,181
  3,373
  3,573
Tax expense, $m
  19
  36
  53
  69
  86
  104
  123
  143
  165
  187
  211
  241
  266
  293
  321
  351
  381
  412
  445
  479
  515
  552
  590
  631
  672
  716
  762
  809
  859
  911
  965
Net income, $m
  22
  98
  144
  186
  232
  281
  333
  388
  446
  507
  571
  651
  720
  793
  869
  948
  1,030
  1,115
  1,204
  1,296
  1,392
  1,492
  1,597
  1,705
  1,818
  1,936
  2,059
  2,188
  2,322
  2,462
  2,609

BALANCE SHEET

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Cash and short-term investments, $m
  40
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Total assets, $m
  1,001
  1,131
  1,316
  1,516
  1,731
  1,961
  2,205
  2,463
  2,734
  3,019
  3,317
  3,629
  3,954
  4,292
  4,644
  5,011
  5,391
  5,786
  6,197
  6,624
  7,068
  7,530
  8,010
  8,510
  9,031
  9,573
  10,139
  10,728
  11,343
  11,985
  12,655
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m
  961
  1,131
  1,316
  1,516
  1,731
  1,961
  2,205
  2,463
  2,734
  3,019
  3,317
  3,629
  3,954
  4,292
  4,644
  5,011
  5,391
  5,786
  6,197
  6,624
  7,068
  7,530
  8,010
  8,510
  9,031
  9,573
  10,139
  10,728
  11,343
  11,985
  12,655
Revenue / Adjusted assets
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
  0.393
Average production assets, $m
  323
  379
  441
  508
  580
  657
  739
  826
  917
  1,012
  1,112
  1,217
  1,325
  1,439
  1,557
  1,680
  1,807
  1,940
  2,078
  2,221
  2,370
  2,524
  2,685
  2,853
  3,027
  3,209
  3,399
  3,596
  3,803
  4,018
  4,242
Working capital, $m
  8
  -29
  -34
  -39
  -45
  -51
  -57
  -64
  -71
  -78
  -86
  -94
  -103
  -111
  -120
  -130
  -140
  -150
  -161
  -172
  -183
  -195
  -208
  -221
  -234
  -248
  -263
  -278
  -294
  -311
  -328
Total debt, $m
  709
  595
  761
  941
  1,135
  1,342
  1,561
  1,793
  2,038
  2,294
  2,563
  2,843
  3,136
  3,440
  3,757
  4,087
  4,429
  4,785
  5,155
  5,539
  5,939
  6,354
  6,786
  7,236
  7,705
  8,193
  8,702
  9,232
  9,786
  10,363
  10,967
Total liabilities, $m
  1,132
  1,018
  1,184
  1,364
  1,558
  1,765
  1,984
  2,216
  2,461
  2,717
  2,986
  3,266
  3,559
  3,863
  4,180
  4,510
  4,852
  5,208
  5,578
  5,962
  6,362
  6,777
  7,209
  7,659
  8,128
  8,616
  9,125
  9,655
  10,209
  10,786
  11,390
Total equity, $m
  -131
  113
  132
  152
  173
  196
  220
  246
  273
  302
  332
  363
  395
  429
  464
  501
  539
  579
  620
  662
  707
  753
  801
  851
  903
  957
  1,014
  1,073
  1,134
  1,198
  1,266
Total liabilities and equity, $m
  1,001
  1,131
  1,316
  1,516
  1,731
  1,961
  2,204
  2,462
  2,734
  3,019
  3,318
  3,629
  3,954
  4,292
  4,644
  5,011
  5,391
  5,787
  6,198
  6,624
  7,069
  7,530
  8,010
  8,510
  9,031
  9,573
  10,139
  10,728
  11,343
  11,984
  12,656
Debt-to-equity ratio
  -5.412
  5.260
  5.790
  6.210
  6.560
  6.840
  7.080
  7.280
  7.450
  7.600
  7.720
  7.830
  7.930
  8.010
  8.090
  8.160
  8.220
  8.270
  8.320
  8.360
  8.400
  8.440
  8.470
  8.500
  8.530
  8.560
  8.580
  8.610
  8.630
  8.650
  8.670
Adjusted equity ratio
  -0.178
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100
  0.100

CASH FLOW

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Net income, $m
  22
  98
  144
  186
  232
  281
  333
  388
  446
  507
  571
  651
  720
  793
  869
  948
  1,030
  1,115
  1,204
  1,296
  1,392
  1,492
  1,597
  1,705
  1,818
  1,936
  2,059
  2,188
  2,322
  2,462
  2,609
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m
  32
  42
  46
  50
  55
  60
  65
  71
  76
  83
  89
  78
  85
  92
  100
  108
  116
  124
  133
  142
  152
  162
  172
  183
  194
  206
  218
  231
  244
  258
  272
Funds from operations, $m
  92
  140
  190
  237
  287
  341
  398
  458
  522
  589
  660
  729
  805
  885
  969
  1,055
  1,146
  1,239
  1,337
  1,439
  1,544
  1,654
  1,769
  1,888
  2,012
  2,142
  2,277
  2,418
  2,566
  2,720
  2,881
Change in working capital, $m
  -17
  -4
  -5
  -5
  -6
  -6
  -6
  -7
  -7
  -7
  -8
  -8
  -8
  -9
  -9
  -9
  -10
  -10
  -11
  -11
  -12
  -12
  -12
  -13
  -14
  -14
  -15
  -15
  -16
  -17
  -17
Cash from operations, $m
  109
  144
  195
  242
  292
  347
  404
  465
  529
  597
  667
  737
  814
  894
  978
  1,065
  1,156
  1,250
  1,348
  1,450
  1,556
  1,666
  1,781
  1,901
  2,026
  2,156
  2,292
  2,433
  2,582
  2,736
  2,898
Maintenance CAPEX, $m
  0
  -21
  -24
  -28
  -33
  -37
  -42
  -47
  -53
  -59
  -65
  -71
  -78
  -85
  -92
  -100
  -108
  -116
  -124
  -133
  -142
  -152
  -162
  -172
  -183
  -194
  -206
  -218
  -231
  -244
  -258
New CAPEX, $m
  -15
  -57
  -62
  -67
  -72
  -77
  -82
  -86
  -91
  -96
  -100
  -104
  -109
  -113
  -118
  -123
  -128
  -133
  -138
  -143
  -149
  -155
  -161
  -168
  -175
  -182
  -189
  -198
  -206
  -215
  -225
Cash from investing activities, $m
  -15
  -78
  -86
  -95
  -105
  -114
  -124
  -133
  -144
  -155
  -165
  -175
  -187
  -198
  -210
  -223
  -236
  -249
  -262
  -276
  -291
  -307
  -323
  -340
  -358
  -376
  -395
  -416
  -437
  -459
  -483
Free cash flow, $m
  94
  67
  109
  147
  188
  232
  280
  331
  385
  442
  503
  561
  627
  696
  768
  842
  920
  1,001
  1,086
  1,173
  1,265
  1,359
  1,458
  1,561
  1,668
  1,780
  1,896
  2,018
  2,145
  2,277
  2,416
Issuance/(repayment) of debt, $m
  224
  -107
  166
  180
  194
  207
  220
  232
  244
  256
  268
  280
  292
  305
  317
  329
  342
  356
  370
  384
  400
  416
  432
  450
  469
  488
  509
  531
  554
  578
  603
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m
  -1
  179
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash from financing (excl. dividends), $m  
  84
  72
  166
  180
  194
  207
  220
  232
  244
  256
  268
  280
  292
  305
  317
  329
  342
  356
  370
  384
  400
  416
  432
  450
  469
  488
  509
  531
  554
  578
  603
Total cash flow (excl. dividends), $m
  178
  139
  275
  327
  381
  439
  500
  563
  630
  699
  771
  841
  919
  1,000
  1,084
  1,172
  1,263
  1,357
  1,455
  1,558
  1,664
  1,775
  1,891
  2,011
  2,137
  2,268
  2,405
  2,549
  2,698
  2,855
  3,019
Retained Cash Flow (-), $m
  116
  -277
  -18
  -20
  -22
  -23
  -24
  -26
  -27
  -28
  -30
  -31
  -32
  -34
  -35
  -37
  -38
  -40
  -41
  -43
  -44
  -46
  -48
  -50
  -52
  -54
  -57
  -59
  -62
  -64
  -67
Prev. year cash balance distribution, $m
 
  33
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash flow adjustment, $m
 
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Cash available for distribution, $m
 
  -105
  257
  307
  360
  416
  475
  538
  603
  670
  741
  810
  887
  966
  1,049
  1,135
  1,225
  1,318
  1,414
  1,515
  1,620
  1,729
  1,843
  1,961
  2,085
  2,214
  2,349
  2,490
  2,637
  2,791
  2,952
Discount rate, %
 
  13.50
  14.18
  14.88
  15.63
  16.41
  17.23
  18.09
  19.00
  19.95
  20.94
  21.99
  23.09
  24.24
  25.46
  26.73
  28.07
  29.47
  30.94
  32.49
  34.11
  35.82
  37.61
  39.49
  41.47
  43.54
  45.72
  48.00
  50.40
  52.92
  55.57
PV of cash for distribution, $m
 
  -92
  197
  202
  201
  195
  183
  168
  150
  130
  111
  91
  73
  57
  44
  33
  23
  16
  11
  7
  5
  3
  2
  1
  1
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
  0
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %
  100
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0
  50.0

Planet Fitness, Inc. is a franchisor and operator of fitness centers in the United States. The Company operates through three segments: Franchise; Corporate-owned stores, and Equipment. The Franchise segment includes operations related to the Company's franchising business in the United States, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Canada. The Corporate-owned stores segment includes operations with respect to all corporate-owned stores throughout the United States and Canada. The Equipment segment includes the sale of equipment to franchisee-owned stores. As of December 31, 2016, it had approximately 8.9 million members and 1,313 stores in 48 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Canada and the Dominican Republic. Of its 1,313 stores, 1,255 were franchised and 58 are corporate-owned, as of December 31, 2016.

FINANCIAL RATIOS  of  Planet Fitness Cl A (PLNT)

Valuation Ratios
P/E Ratio 118.8
Price to Sales 6.9
Price to Book -19.9
Price to Tangible Book
Price to Cash Flow 24
Price to Free Cash Flow 27.8
Growth Rates
Sales Growth Rate 14.2%
Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
EPS Growth Rate %
EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate %
Capital Spending Gr. Rate -21.1%
Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate 16.5%
Financial Strength
Quick Ratio 6
Current Ratio 0
LT Debt to Equity -535.9%
Total Debt to Equity -541.2%
Interest Coverage 5
Management Effectiveness
Return On Assets 4.8%
Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg. 6.8%
Return On Total Capital 4.2%
Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg. 5.1%
Return On Equity -30.1%
Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg. 5%
Asset Turnover 0.4
Profitability Ratios
Gross Margin 51.9%
Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 48.9%
EBITDA Margin 38.6%
EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 34.1%
Operating Margin 30.4%
Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 24.9%
Pre-Tax Margin 23.8%
Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 17.2%
Net Profit Margin 5.8%
Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg. 8.3%
Effective Tax Rate 21.1%
Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg. 14.3%
Payout Ratio 768.2%

PLNT stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the PLNT stock intrinsic value calculation we used $378 million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Planet Fitness Cl A. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Planet Fitness Cl A. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
    We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our PLNT stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 17.6% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
    At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
    The initial discount rate of 13.5%, whose default value for PLNT is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Planet Fitness Cl A, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Planet Fitness Cl A.
    By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of PLNT stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 15.6%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $211 million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for PLNT stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 4% for Planet Fitness Cl A.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Planet Fitness Cl A. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the PLNT stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for PLNT are equal to 85.3%.

Life of production assets of 15.6 years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Planet Fitness Cl A operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for PLNT is equal to -6.6%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $-131 million for Planet Fitness Cl A - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 98.379 million for Planet Fitness Cl A is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Planet Fitness Cl A at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $2.6 billion.

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Financial statements of PLNT
Valuation of Stocks

The paper VALUATION OF STOCKS: The Quest for Intrinsic Value provides a detailed description of our valuation model and discloses the calculation algorithm.

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